Elon Musk: Always A Douche

[Jacob]

Interesting analysis of the Chinese EV producers and market on reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/18xvahw/revisiting_china_a_look_to_the_middle_kingdom_as/

[viper37]

Both propositions seem questionable.  True self-driving autos are the transportation equivalent of nuclear fusion - the tech is always X years out in the future.  Five years ago analysys were saying the tech would be ready by now; now they are saying it's another 5 years.  At the same time, there is still a lot of competition and I've seen nothing to suggest that Tesla has overwhelming technical or developmental advantage.

Any bets on what will become available commercially first? Honestly, I think nuclear fusion power might actually beat self driving autos.

I can see automated trains.  I can see automated rapid bus transit.  Anything that has its own lanes.

Something semi-automated like Tesla or more performing than what we already have in most modern vehicles: adaptive cruise control, course correction when you change lanes with highways that would be adapted to these vehicles in the very distant future, that I can see.  But KITT jumping over other cars or ejecting the annoying passenger is gonna come right after we develop a viable high speed warp drive and transport system.

[Zanza]

No idea whether we will reach level 5 autonomous driving capability, but level 4 on highway looks realistic in the next years. If the regulatory framework on driving times for commercial drivers reflects this, the on highway heavy truck traffic has a business case for even expensive autonomous driving capability. If it means your truck is on the road close to 24 hours instead of maybe half of that now, it will pay for itself.

Freightliner and its subsidiary Torc in North America look very promising there. Also a cooperation between Freightliner and Waymo (Google).

[Jacob]

What's level 4 autonomous driving? I'm assuming level 5 is "can drive all by itself in all cases"?

[Zanza]

[Zanza]

Tesla's FSD is actually a level 2 system.

By the way, there will be no class action suit on that due to mandatory individual arbitration signed by Tesla customers.

[Admiral Yi]

Tesla's FSD is actually a level 2 system.

What makes it not a 3?

[Zanza]

Tesla's FSD is actually a level 2 system.

What makes it not a 3?

The Tesla T&C and the fact it deactivates seconds before a crash.

[Admiral Yi]

T&C?

[Zanza]

Terms & Conditions. While the feature is marketed as FSD, you as a driver always remain liable and must check whether the system does the right thing. That's by definition level 2. For a real autonomous car, the manufacturer is liable during autonomous operation.

[HVC]

Tesla's FSD is actually a level 2 system.

What makes it not a 3?

The Tesla T&C and the fact it deactivates seconds before a crash.

Autopilot eject? Sounds like something the Simpsons would make up

[Admiral Yi]

Terms & Conditions. While the feature is marketed as FSD, you as a driver always remain liable and must check whether the system does the right thing. That's by definition level 2. For a real autonomous car, the manufacturer is liable during autonomous operation.

Interesting.  Thanks.

[crazy canuck]

Tesla's FSD is actually a level 2 system.

By the way, there will be no class action suit on that due to mandatory individual arbitration signed by Tesla customers.

At least in Canada, those clauses are not enforceable.

[crazy canuck]

No idea whether we will reach level 5 autonomous driving capability, but level 4 on highway looks realistic in the next years. If the regulatory framework on driving times for commercial drivers reflects this, the on highway heavy truck traffic has a business case for even expensive autonomous driving capability. If it means your truck is on the road close to 24 hours instead of maybe half of that now, it will pay for itself.

Freightliner and its subsidiary Torc in North America look very promising there. Also a cooperation between Freightliner and Waymo (Google).

It's not really a question of economic feasibility.  If that were the only metric the tech is close as you say.  The main question is safety.

[Zanza]

No idea whether we will reach level 5 autonomous driving capability, but level 4 on highway looks realistic in the next years. If the regulatory framework on driving times for commercial drivers reflects this, the on highway heavy truck traffic has a business case for even expensive autonomous driving capability. If it means your truck is on the road close to 24 hours instead of maybe half of that now, it will pay for itself.

Freightliner and its subsidiary Torc in North America look very promising there. Also a cooperation between Freightliner and Waymo (Google).

It's not really a question of economic feasibility.  If that were the only metric the tech is close as you say.  The main question is safety.

Sure, but I predict that will eventually help adoption.

The most basic autonomous driving safety feature, name autonomous emergency braking for collision prevention, is already mandatory by law in the EU and by consensual agreement with NHTSA in the US. Same with other mechanisms that override human errors like ESC.

In the end, machines are better drivers. The problem with autonomous driving is not the other autonomous vehicles, but human drivers.

Outlaw those and it becomes perfectly safe.