Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[PJL]

I get the impression that Sunak is ready to throw in the towel as leader/PM. The Rwanda bill is just his excuse to get out. At best he seems half hearted to stay in the job.

[Sheilbh]

I get the impression that Sunak is ready to throw in the towel as leader/PM. The Rwanda bill is just his excuse to get out. At best he seems half hearted to stay in the job.

Yeah - I think he is coming across as very petulant/"don't you know how lucky you are to have me" which is not attractve in a politician.

I also get the sense that an awful lot of his issues around party management and spotting traps etc basically reflect his inexperience. MP in 2015, Chancellor five years later and PM by 2022 - he's not very seasoned and I feel like it shows. The same, of course, applies to Starmer and seems to be the norm now

What's the story of Sunak's peril? Who's going to shank him and why?

Basically the Supreme Court ruled against their Rwanda policy. Sunak's proposed legislation (which can't and won't pass) to get around that. The right are angry that it doesn't go far enough - and Braverman has positioned her firing as principled/is trying to rally them around Sunak's weakness. She's been joined in that by Robert Jenrick who was a Sunak ally and Immigration Minister (precisely to keep an eye on Braverman in the Home Office) but now apparently has higher ambition and has resigned following her.

At the same time the Tory left - which is the largest single "caucus" with about 1/3 of the party - are deeply unhappy with the proposed bill. They feel like they might have to back Sunak but won't do so with any joy. Reporters are saying it feels a lot like Theresa May's time in office - the difference being she didn't have a functioning majority, while Sunak does which shows how bad his political management/the collapse of the Tory party as a coherent body has got.

I still think with Sunak that he's actually very, very right-wing - possibly our most right-wing PM in decades - but "reads" as a centrist because of his accent, style, background, ethnicity. So the right are always dissatisfied because they don't think he's really one of them (unlike, say, Braverman) while the left are constantly disappointed.

Although more broadly I think any incumbent government is going to really struggle anywhere in the democratic world given cost of living - and Sunak's no different. And they've been in power for 13 years - although I think within that, what seems to be Sunak's strategy doesn't make clear sense to me.

[Gups]

Whatever your views on the merits of teh Rwanda scheme (I think it absolutely stinks), its shown that Sunak is an absolutely hopeless politician. He's put himself in an impossible position which was not only predictable but actually predicted by almost everyone when he could have just used the Supreme Court decision as the basis for dropping the whole thing.

[Tamas]

I get the impression that Sunak is ready to throw in the towel as leader/PM. The Rwanda bill is just his excuse to get out. At best he seems half hearted to stay in the job.

I will be laughing my ass off when Truss returns for her second term in February.

[Gups]

The Tories would be better off calling an election thank having another leadership dispute.

[Sheilbh]

The Tories would be better off calling an election thank having another leadership dispute.

I think they'd have to. I think it'd be like 2019 where you just couldn't quite resist the gravity of an election. I think it's already teaching the point where public frustration is outweighing their hope that something will turn up.

[Josquius]

I get the impression that Sunak is ready to throw in the towel as leader/PM. The Rwanda bill is just his excuse to get out. At best he seems half hearted to stay in the job.

I will be laughing my ass off when Truss returns for her second term in February.

I mean, they do seem to be following a policy of assuming a Labour government is just round the corner and  trying to fuck things as much as possible for them.

So, what do we think. Spring 24 election?

[Richard Hakluyt]

The Tory coalition has completely broken down, the right wing may as well defect to Reform given their politics, it also looks like the one nation Tories are finally losing patience with the headbangers.

...and all this over the braindead Rwanda scheme; which even if it works would place a max of 2000 asylum seekes in the next year or two at vast cost 

[Gups]

I get the impression that Sunak is ready to throw in the towel as leader/PM. The Rwanda bill is just his excuse to get out. At best he seems half hearted to stay in the job.

I will be laughing my ass off when Truss returns for her second term in February.

I mean, they do seem to be following a policy of assuming a Labour government is just round the corner and  trying to fuck things as much as possible for them.

So, what do we think. Spring 24 election?

Not sure that's the priority for Sunal atm - he's just ieptly trying to cling on. Rwanda doesn't affect a Labour Govt - they'll just kill it anyway.

Just had a talk given to us on Labour's planning policy by a Labour SPAD. He said that a couple of days ago everyone thought it was going to be an Autumn election but the odds have changed dramatically in the last couple of days.

[Josquius]

Relevant to the earlier education topic. Seems I'm not the only one questioning english quality.

https://amp.theguardian.com/education/2023/dec/12/peers-call-urgent-overhaul-secondary-education-england

Though I will say the talk of going to a more continental system did seem to be one of the only good things to come out of sunak. Shame to see turning against that completely - though asking for so many to do it was of course mad and out of sync with how it is elsewhere.

[Sheilbh]

Your position is absolutely the norm. As I say, it's arguably the single outstanding policy achievement of the last few decades - but people don't really believe it, it's not really popular and there's a very real risk it will all get unwound.

I'd also note that Lord Johnson (Boris' brother, Eton, Oxford) is exactly the sort of person who will already have access to a "knowledge rich" environment and route in school. I'm always a little bit dubious of people who encourage less rigorous educations for other people's children than they had the benefit of themselves, or would choose for their kids. I don't think it's deliberately about keeping barriers up - but I think that is the effect (again in PISA scores, England actually does best in the developed world for poorer kids which should be transformative in 10-20 yeyars time).

[Admiral Yi]

That's essentially what Germany's apprenticeship program does.  Early on in life you're set in a cone.

And people love it.

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/13/badenoch-condemns-london-plague-study-after-mp-calls-it-woke-archaeology

Badenoch condemns London plague study after MP calls it 'woke archaeology'

[Josquius]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/13/badenoch-condemns-london-plague-study-after-mp-calls-it-woke-archaeology

Badenoch condemns London plague study after MP calls it 'woke archaeology'

"We think there's a very good chance going off examining these skulls and comparing to known common features of sub saharan Africans that these plague victims were black"
"He said black! Woke! Woke! Reject!"


Though I must say the fascinating part to me are these black people in 14th century London. It was a thriving port and would have people from all over but a sizable sub saharan African population? What's the crack there?

[The Brain]

In Sweden measuring skulls for race purposes has fallen into disrepute.

It was the first recorded use of the term "woke archaeology" in more than 200 years of Commons transcripts.

Regency mf's: "Having seen the Ogre off to St Helena, woke archaeology is the great enemy we face today."