Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[mongers]

Except that in the last 13 years the UK has the best record on decarbonisation in the G7 and one of the best globally.

Totally take your point on not everyone immediately moving to EVs but we are likely to see (and need to see) a big increase in uptake - and with it, demand for electricity.

Also agree on the off shore CfD auction mess, which is absolutely with the government. But it also highlights the risk of a private sector, capital led approach to energy transition because, to use the WW2 analogy, I'm not sure there'd be vast sympathy for arms manufacturers withholding production because they don't like the price.

It's the general thing I keep coming back to - either it's an emergency or it's not and so far the focus is very much on declaring it one but not following up with the actions you'd expect.

Lots of low hanging fruit consumed?

With the likely closure or scaling back of Port Talbot steel works, my local authority, New Forest, looks set to be the UK's 2nd biggest 'polluter'?

[Sheilbh]

For sure - I think we're about 50% to net zero (from 1990), but I think we're getting into the difficult stuff now. The next 50% is also likely to require fairly massive electrification - EVs, heat pumps, probably AC to mitigate warming, working out if we can electrify industria heat etc. I think for us it's going to be a clash between the politically easy King Charles/Countryfile wing of environmentalism and actually hitting net zero.

I'm still a little unsure if Labour's up for that.

[Tamas]

In some shape or form net zero must be turned into a New Deal sort of a program. To somebody untrained like me it seems like it could be relatively straightforward - lots of new infrastructure is needed, lots of modernisation of houses etc.   But I can only imagine the absolute carnage unleashed in this country by the necessary planning reforms etc. The UK does not strike me as used to sweeping changes and upheavals.

[Sheilbh]

I totally agree it is utterly achievable (although as I say the UK is ahead of everyone else in the G7 so maybe not...) but I'm not so sure.

I've mentioned before that my theory is that it's tied to so much (housing, net zero, regional productivity, decentralisation) that it'll end up a little like the welfare state/no repeat of the interwar years in 1945 or the unions in 1979-83 style issue. I think in 1945 the UK became as close to a full socialist planned economy as the democratic world has seen and under Thatcher we acquired some of the most anti-union and pro-market laws too. FPTP enables sweeping, radical change - but you need to have a plan and prepare the ground. Labour are saying the right things at least but I'm struggling to reconcile Miliband's radical goals on climate, Reeves' fiscal caution and the gap that is their policy on planning/building etc... Little bit of a concern.

My fear is that if Labour don't then the Tories choose someone like Badenoch as leader and we get their version instead - a bit like the unions blocking Barbara Castle's "In place of greater strife" and then getting Thatcher's version instead

[Josquius]

Except that in the last 13 years the UK has the best record on decarbonisation in the G7 and one of the best globally.

The general public does tend to have trouble with statistics like this. Percentages particularly mislead them.
But it is pretty clear and hopefully could be communicated by a competent labour that this is less down to the tories being great at the environment and more.

1: rather that building green stuff this was more down to destroying the country in general. Ghenghis Khan school of environmentalism

2: where they did invest in green stuff, they completely fucked it up and delivered considerably less than other countries for many times the price. Ie HS2

Also agree on the off shore CfD auction mess, which is absolutely with the government. But it also highlights the risk of a private sector, capital led approach to energy transition because, to use the WW2 analogy, I'm not sure there'd be vast sympathy for arms manufacturers withholding production because they don't like the price   

Even beyond environmental matters I reckon the 2010s is going to become known as the lost decade.
After 2008 we were so set from moving on from the neo liberal consensus and getting back to common sense governance... And look what happened.

[Sheilbh]

I think the 2010s were, particularly in Europe, a catastrophe on multiple levels.

Although I don't think politically that 2008 was a turning point. I don't see alternatives from Brown, Obama, Sarko, Merkel etc. But, as I say, significantly worse in Europe.

[Tamas]

My hopes for a new deal approach would be to essentially translate climate change action to practicable things the bulk of the electorate honestly care about: economic security (jobs and improved infrastructure). The flip side of course is that as you guys pointed out a few times in the past, quite simply a lot of Brits have (or think they have) good enough not to want any changes.

[Sheilbh]

So interestingly that is language Starmer is using - borrowing from a point Lord Kinnock has made. Kinnock's argument is that basically should own security as an issue - national security, job and economic security, energy security, even day to day security (law and order) - because they all (increasingly) tie together but also all rely on an active state.

I'm not sure Brits are comfortable enough to not want change. Brexit happened. In a way this is one of the reasons I think Brexit will most likely end up being Lexit (and the parties might swap sides on it) because I think all of those points can be tied in an active state/national sovereignty argument. It'll be interesting to see if it's one Starmer's able to make. Although climate is one of the few areas the British public think we're not doing enough on - there's an irony in us thinking we do enough on asylum when comparatively we don't, while thinking we're not doing enough on climate when comparatively we're quite strong

Edit: Meanwhile:
https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1705664856660021551?s=46&t=o9GOIj6BKKcLcHiyQTlAoA

EXCL - Fears are growing inside Downing Street for the health of beloved chief mouser Larry the cat

No10 officials drawing up emergency PR plan on how to break the news to the nation when the ailing moggy does pass away

It feels a little too on the nose for the cat to die as they're kicked from office

[Josquius]

My hopes for a new deal approach would be to essentially translate climate change action to practicable things the bulk of the electorate honestly care about: economic security (jobs and improved infrastructure). The flip side of course is that as you guys pointed out a few times in the past, quite simply a lot of Brits have (or think they have) good enough not to want any changes.

Yes. The car brained world view is a hard one to break once people settle into it.
Way too many people in the UK have this whole toxic individualist fuck the commons attitude that just doesn't consider the holistics of how things could improve with better infrastructure.

[mongers]

My hopes for a new deal approach would be to essentially translate climate change action to practicable things the bulk of the electorate honestly care about: economic security (jobs and improved infrastructure). The flip side of course is that as you guys pointed out a few times in the past, quite simply a lot of Brits have (or think they have) good enough not to want any changes.

Yes. The car brained world view is a hard one to break once people settle into it.
Way too many people in the UK have this whole toxic individualist fuck the commons attitude that just doesn't consider the holistics of how things could improve with better infrastructure.

I had this twice in a 10 mile journey along the quiet roads of the forest, first a woman in a car was determined to overtake me, though by doing it a slow speed, I had to actively point to the audi coming around the road curve, which for some reason she wasn't seeing. She thanked me when she eventually passed.

On the way back, a large stag was running up and down the roadside grass trying to find a way through the hedge/fencing, I slowed to a stop and had to attract a SUV driver's attention by pointing at the large several hundred pound animal that was leaping 3-4ft off the ground as it ran in a panic. The car did slow to a near stop; I don't know if they hadn't seen it or just hadn't considered it a threat to their car and itself?

[Admiral Yi]

Shelf, good luck learning not to be mislead by statistics.

[Sheilbh]

What have I done?

[Admiral Yi]

What have I done?

You thought the success of Britain in decarbonizing relative to the G7 was indicative of relatively successful policy.

[Sheilbh]

Still confused

[Admiral Yi]

I was referring to this exchange.

Except that in the last 13 years the UK has the best record on decarbonisation in the G7 and one of the best globally.

The general public does tend to have trouble with statistics like this. Percentages particularly mislead them.