Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Valmy]

That needs a corrective because there is (relatively) very significant progress in recent years, say the last 5-10, and it is accelerating. Both sides are true and somewhere in the tension between them is where we are (and, I'd argue that's also the location of the hope on this). But as I say in this thread (or the generally left/liberal press I read) you only really see one side.

I had a meeting today where we were discussing the upcoming 12 gigawatts of battery storage this one company was adding to the ERCOT grid to store wind and solar power. I cannot even tell you how unlikely I thought that would have been just a short time ago. I guess being an engineer I see all the amazing progress being made on our side and it fills me with optimism.

Though I guess I should mention I was also working with oil and gas companies earlier this week in how to electrify their operations so they could reduce emissions...which I thought was kind of a funny goal for those interests. But hey we are coming to the rescue big oil. What a weird moment in this industry.

[Savonarola]

And now for a very British vision of dystopia:

AI could replace you all with 'peerbots,' UK House of Lords warned

[Sheilbh]

Wow. Every crime, truly we are being spoiled.

Police: We will investigate every crime
Chief constables pledge more resources to tackle shoplifting and car theft
Fiona Hamilton, Crime and Security Editor
Friday July 28 2023, 9.30pm, The Times

Police forces will promise to investigate every crime after years of overlooking lower-level offences such as criminal damage, shoplifting, car and bike theft.

Ministers want police to dramatically improve their rates for solving many offences that have been virtually decriminalised and blight communities.

Chief constables will pledge to investigate every crime report with a reasonable lead such as CCTV, doorbell video, GPS trackers and witness accounts.

Since the era of austerity, forces across the country have abandoned many inquiries into the most common crimes. Police have blamed pressure on resources, saying they need to focus on high-harm cases and the most vulnerable victims.

Until now police have often refused to investigate crimes under arbitrary levels — such as a £50 threshold for shoplifting — even when there is evidence. In the year to March, forces charged a suspect in only 2 per cent of vehicle and bike thefts, 3 per cent of low-level assaults, 4 per cent of criminal damage cases and 4 per cent of residential burglaries.



Senior police sources told The Times that some forces had been doing the "bare minimum" on investigative methods such as gathering CCTV evidence, conducting house-to-house inquiries and keeping victims informed. They said it was a mistake to view the most common crimes as low-level, and treat them in isolation, because they had a major impact on people's lives and organised gangs were often involved.

Crime is shaping up as a key battleground at the next election and polling has shown that the majority of the public believe that police have given up on investigating lower-level offences. This week the supermarket Co-op recorded the highest level of shoplifting in its history and blamed police for failing to crack down on violent gangs of thieves. The government has already announced that police will no longer attend the majority of mental health callouts, shifting the burden to health services, in a move estimated to free one million hours of officer time.

Suella Braverman, the home secretary, has also announced reforms to reduce bureaucracy and paperwork. She expects that police will use the extra time to improve investigations and carry out visible patrols.

This year forces promised to send an officer to every burglary. An announcement on investigating every crime is expected in weeks after a formal agreement is drawn up by the Home Office, chief constables and elected police and crime commissioners (PCCs).

It will be based on a scheme in Greater Manchester, where Steve Watson, the chief constable, pulled the force out of special measures in record time with a back-to-basics approach. He announced in May 2021 that his officers would investigate all crimes and follow up every reasonable line of inquiry. The force has since reported a 38 per cent increase in charges for burglary, a 22 per cent increase for robbery, and a 53 per cent increase for vehicle theft.

Lisa Townsend, the Tory PCC for Surrey, said: "We will be looking at shoplifting, burglaries and other crimes that have traditionally been seen as lower-level. We mustn't tolerate this idea that there are some crimes we don't investigate, as they have a huge impact on our communities.

"The government will be going very hard on the idea that there is a lot of police time freed up and they expect us to use it well, and we will."

A senior police source said it was a "big push on the crimes that matter most to communities". They added: "Forces have been missing so many forensic opportunities, not keeping evidence safe from the first call, not keeping victims updated. It doesn't take a lot of work to identify shoplifters from CCTV . . . but we simply haven't been doing it. We're not going to trawl through 300 hours of CCTV for a single car theft, but this policy is going to ensure that we do investigate where there is some evidence. You can't treat these crimes as minor . . . if you've got a tradesman with their work tools stolen out of their car, it's not the biggest theft but it has impacted someone's daily life really badly."

They added that forces "mustn't treat crime in isolation". Police have warned that organised criminals are involved in car theft in particular, often using the vehicles to commit other offences. Last month a gang of thieves were jailed for stealing high-value cars including Range Rovers to carry out ram raids of jewellers, banks and petrol stations in a £4.5 million crime spree.

This was an interactive table so can't repost here but this screenshot is...not great:


Slightly wild for me that the radical innovative approach all the police forces are learning from Manchester is "investigating all crimes and following up every reasonable line of inquiry"...

Also this is clearly the impact of austerity on police budgets and cuts in numbers (now being unwound) - but also striking that the charts are comparing with 2015. A lot of this decline has happened under two Home Secretaries who like to pose as ultra-hardline but seemingly aren't actually leading their departments effectively - invites inevitable comparisons with May who was also very hardline but seemed to be able to run a department. On the other hand that meant when she said terrifyingly authoritarian things there was a stronger of it actually happening than under Patel or Braverman.

[Josquius]

The lack of care for bike theft is insane.

One thing there seems to be a huge problem with internationally is the police adapting to modern tracker tech. I've seen so many cases where someone is robbed and can clearly show the police their tracker pinging from inside a house.... And the police do fuck all.

[garbon]

The lack of care for bike theft is insane.

How so?

[mongers]

The lack of care for bike theft is insane.

One thing there seems to be a huge problem with internationally is the police adapting to modern tracker tech. I've seen so many cases where someone is robbed and can clearly show the police their tracker pinging from inside a house.... And the police do fuck all.

A bike is just a bike, a consumer item maybe only costing a couple of hundred quid.

I think the 'assult with injury' is far worse, down from 25% to 5%, a four/fifths decline, on a completly different scale to shoplifthing or theft in a public space.

[Tamas]

The lack of care for bike theft is insane.

One thing there seems to be a huge problem with internationally is the police adapting to modern tracker tech. I've seen so many cases where someone is robbed and can clearly show the police their tracker pinging from inside a house.... And the police do fuck all.

Probably because they don't want to. Too much hassle.

[Sheilbh]

A bike is just a bike, a consumer item maybe only costing a couple of hundred quid.

Although bike theft - like phone theft and car theft at the other end - are, I understand, more often tied into organised crime than other ones on that list so perhaps worth taking seriously for that reason.

I think the 'assult with injury' is far worse, down from 25% to 5%, a four/fifths decline, on a completly different scale to shoplifthing or theft in a public space.

I agree the assault with injury is really bad. But I think you underestimate the impact of shoplifting.

First on the people involved. The example they give is the Co-op because they've been talking about it recently and that their stores are currently facing 1,000 incidents a day - and one store had three incidents in a day. Obviously even within a Co-op there is an impact on the staff (often not paid very well) who are dealing with that situation. But imagine it in a family corner shop. I also think shoplifting can be a bit of a misleading term because we think of someone just dropping cans into their coat pockets. But I remember being in a Co-op and seeing someone shoplift spirits which are kept behind the counter - to get ther they're shoving the girl behind the till out the way, jumping over the barrier etc. For the company Co-op it's probably not a big deal, for her it's really scary.

Second I think it contributes to the general grubbiness of British life at the minute. More things being locked in shops (like the caps on spirit bottles) or put behind screens, being followed by a shop assistant, security guards moving from being something the really big supermarkets had to being present in loads of high street shops. I think a set of things that contribute to the sense of run down-ness in our streets. All retail accept there's a degree of risk and some shoplifting happens, but having it happen on a daily basis changes the balance of risk and makes you go for those options. I get there are issues with the whole "broken windows" theories of policing - but I'm not sure Britain's bold experiment in whatever the opposite would be is working either.

Again the Co-op because they've spoken about this have said that the rise in shoplifting they're facing is also mirrored by abusive behaviour towards their staff, that some of it seem organised (cars dropping people off) and that the police only attend 30% of the serious incidents they report. Those are stores that will all have CCTV, all have scanners by the door and security guards - things that should give some useful evidence to the police, and things most corner shops or retailers can't afford.

Probably because they don't want to. Too much hassle.

Yes. I get that police numbers were cut and that in particular support staff and admin support were gutted - but I still wonder what the police are actually doing?

At least in London, I think Cressida Dick's big strategy was moving to a police in vans and cars model rather than neighbourhood police, beat officers etc. So I think local police stations have been closed at a rate of 1 a fortnight and larger areas are covered from a more centralised hubs (I suspect this is also why response times have increased) with police in vehicles. But if they're not really responding to or investigating petty crime, to focus on "more serious" crime which they do respond to but which also has significantly lower charge rates than 8 years ago - what are they actually spending their time doing? Especially as since about 2015-16 their budgets have been increasing.

[Josquius]

With bike theft you've also got the added blow that you could be stealing someone's ability to make a living if they commute by bike.

[HVC]

Shop lifting sprees also lead to store closing shop (even big companies) when loses get large enough. Look at all the stores closing in major cities in the us which blame theft loses. Usually happens in poorer neighbourhoods with less choice to begin with.

[Sheilbh]

Shop lifting sprees also lead to store closing shop (even big companies) when loses get large enough. Look at all the stores closing in major cities in the us which blame theft loses. Usually happens in poorer neighbourhoods with less choice to begin with.

Yes - although I think it might interact a little differently with poverty here. Choice and access is less about major cities than about areas where poverty and lack of access to a car (and no online deliveries available). Which is different than shoplifting which I believe is worse in major cities - so I'm not sure those issues would necessarily coincide in the way they have in the US.

So I think the areas that are broadly flagged as having issues around lack of choice and access are either in places like the Welsh Valleys or areas running down the Pennines, or certain suburbs of more car-dependent cities like Birmingham. Not sure about Scotland but I imagine it would be an issue there.

[garbon]

We had the police out in full force yesterday at nearly all of our pubs. I assume there most have been sports on.

[garbon]

With bike theft you've also got the added blow that you could be stealing someone's ability to make a living if they commute by bike.

And the tears for those having their car stolen?

[HVC]

With bike theft you've also got the added blow that you could be stealing someone's ability to make a living if they commute by bike.

And the tears for those having their car stolen?

They deserve it

[Josquius]

With bike theft you've also got the added blow that you could be stealing someone's ability to make a living if they commute by bike.

And the tears for those having their car stolen?

Less common and usually more likely to see action. But still bad. And I don't see their relevance?