Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Barrister]

I agree with that analysis.  It is funny, our experiences were entirely reversed.  It was the first election I did not seriously participate in (although I had only really been involved in three previous elections - a byelection and two national elections).

But by 93, everyone I knew from previous campaigns had flipped to the Reform party. There was no election team to speak of left for the PCs.  The MP I had worked for had lost in the previous election and the NPD held the riding.  None of the parties really appealed to me at that point, so I was one of those folks who just melted away.  Reform took the riding in that election. They benefitted from no vote splitting since the PCs were not viable anymore.  The MP I had worked for was the victim of Reform votes splitting in the previous election.

I was in Manitoba, so for sure our experiences would be different.  In Manitoba Reform did reasonably well, but support for the PCs didn't just melt away either.  I just checked the results in my riding - Libs won handily, Reform came in second at 28%, but PCs were third.  In total we only won 1 riding in MB.

And heck in 1997 where I was the campaign manager we came in 4th - but it was pretty much academic because Lloyd Axworth for the Libs got like 60% of the vote and the other parties just  fought for scraps.

I mean the hope/plan had been for exactly what you said - for the PCs to just whither and go away, but of course nobody told them, which is why vote-splitting was such a problem for the next decade.

[Sheilbh]

I mean, he's not wrong.
But he's Nigel Fucking Farage.
It's literally his job to be wrong about things like this.

Although I believe Farage also critcised May for hinting that she might use the residency status of EU citizens in the UK as leverage. So not the first time.

Really? I saw Lineker and Vine

Yeah and not just social media either. The Indy is weirdly trashy online but I think this picture/headline/story combo would probably be libellous:

R Y L A N
@Rylan
Hi @Independent would you mind editing or removing this Facebook post, it suggests I'm the person in question and frankly the comments are disgusting.

They have removed it since.

At risk of a 1993 Canadian election hijack...

Do it! Do it! Not enough Canadian hijacks.

The commentators aren't really looking for a comparison of the conditions in the run up to the election, it's more in a "how bad could things go for the Tories" they're now reaching for Canada 1993 - which is its own story

The lack of a split is obviously a key difference (and why I referred to the right) - but in FPTP I think there's a "gradually then suddenly" point which I think is probably somewhere in the 20-30% range. The lack of a split or rival on a right also means it's not really comparable with the previous example in the UK of that sort of outcome, which was what happened to the Liberals in the interwar years.

It is, of course, also very unlikely. The polls will narrow as we get closer to an election and - who knows - something might turn up for them. But at the minute the Tories are polling around 25%. As importantly if you add up the polling of the anti-Tory parties you're at 66%+ which is higher than that vote was in the 90s and there is evidence that people are voting tactically.

The equivalent would have to be if Tory support coalesced around something like Reform UK (the former Brexit party).  BUt that seems somewhat unlikely as that party has been around for awhile and other than as a single-issue protest vote hasn't gathered all that much support.  Looks like they're currently getting 5% in the polls.

It varies. They've polled as high as 10% as low as 3%. I'd note that they do consistently better on online pollsters, that my personal experience is that the minute you leave the internet no-one has heard of them and that they have consistently underperformed where they should be (based on the polling) in local elections and by-elections. The right-wing press like to talk up Reform as a threat to the Tories to pressure the government, but I'm not convinced.

Obviously things can change - and the big change for them would be if Farage returned to the fray and became their leader because he has a level of profile and charisma that they just don't at the minute. There also isn't yet an issue for them to really coalesce around which I think is key for that type of party.

I think cc's right though that the Tories could split. On the one hand - they generally don't and their ability to stay united (as Marx would put it, to defend the ground rent) is a big part of how they've managed to be one of the most successful parties in the democratic world. But there's lots of currents and disagreements within the Tory party and if they do have a catastrophic result it's not clear what Tory MPs survive and that will have a big impact on who the next leader is and there could be ructions or splits. It's not fully clear what that'll look like and, at the minute, it seems like the Tories are losing as votes in their heartlands as much as they are in the Red Wall.

I think at the minute the betting favourites for next leader are Kemi Badenoch (who I'd put money on ), Penny Mordaunt and James Cleverly - none of whom are particularly headbangers, but that may change if there's a rump party. Also, just as an aside, striking that the betting two of those likely candidates are black and two are women which is another reminder of the striking Tory success in diversity at the top/leadership roles. Especially on a day when it turned out that a Labour scheme to mentor minority candidates has not managed to get a single one selected as parliamentary candidate (the Labour parliamentary party is significantly more diverse than the Tories and over 50% women - they do a lot less well on senior roles and leadership elections though).

The 93 federal election is quite the perfect storm. The conservative coalition collapse on all sides and that coalesce differently in the regions of Canada. The West went Reform; Francophone Quebec created the BQ; Ontario, English Quebec & Atlantic formed around the Liberals delivering them a very efficient victory.

Yeah in terms of actual results and factors - I wonder if 2015 is the closest in Britain to 1993 in Canada (at least since 1918). No split but key regional factors Labour collapsed in Scotland to be replaced by SNP, UKIP surged to 12.5% which cost Labour seats in the Midlands and started the cracks in the red wall and Labour underperformed in Lib Dem heartlands allowing the Tories to form their first majority government in 20 years. Each region had different dynamics with one thing in common: Labour losing votes.

Rylan's creepiness goes beyond being gay surely?
He's the gay David Walliams.

Couldn't disagree more strongly

[Tamas]

Ah Rylan is that guy? All I know is that I see him sometimes in commercials or in some other stuff and rapist or not he is supremely creepy. Someone with that super-groomed and oiled hear and beard cannot possibly be a healthy and adjusted individual.

[Sheilbh]

Ah Rylan is that guy? All I know is that I see him sometimes in commercials or in some other stuff and rapist or not he is supremely creepy. Someone with that super-groomed and oiled hear and beard cannot possibly be a healthy and adjusted individual.

I feel like this is somehow anti-Essex discrimination

[Gups]

Ah Rylan is that guy? All I know is that I see him sometimes in commercials or in some other stuff and rapist or not he is supremely creepy. Someone with that super-groomed and oiled hear and beard cannot possibly be a healthy and adjusted individual.

Ditto. I see the bloke and his horrible teeth all the time but didn't know his name or his sexuality only that he is supremely uninteresting

[HVC]

Ah Rylan is that guy? All I know is that I see him sometimes in commercials or in some other stuff and rapist or not he is supremely creepy. Someone with that super-groomed and oiled hear and beard cannot possibly be a healthy and adjusted individual.

I feel like this is somehow anti-Essex discrimination

His face is too smooth. Top half is over botoxed and then he has a beard which contrasts. It's off putting. Like a hobo ken doll.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The lawyer representing the young woman says that the stories in the Sun are untrue :

"A lawyer representing the young person at the centre of the BBC presenter allegations has disputed their mother's account of events.

In a letter to the BBC, the lawyer makes claims that throw doubt on the story that has dominated front pages through the weekend.

It says the young person sent a denial to the Sun on Friday evening via WhatsApp saying the statement their mother made to the newspaper was "totally wrong and there was no truth to it".

Nonetheless, the lawyer said, the Sun newspaper proceeded to publish "their inappropriate article"."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-66147560

 

[Josquius]

So there's nothing else going on in the world eh?

[mongers]

The homophobia is that as soon as the story broke the first two names trending on social media were Rylan and Graham Norton.

Incidentally strongly recommend listening to the Rylan episode of Off Menu. He's great.

Rylan's creepiness goes beyond being gay surely?
He's the gay David Walliams.

Would be massively shocked if Graham Norton got up to anything dodgy. But then Rolf Harris caught me by surprise too.

Why on earth didn't you put in a compensation claim?

[Sheilbh]

So there's nothing else going on in the world eh?

Looking forward to seeing their front page tonight - all their story was based on the mother's comments. But all the other tabloids are splashing on it being "rubbish".

[HVC]

Guess she doesn't want to pay taxes on the 35k

[OttoVonBismarck]

Seeing Biden meet with King Charles and Sunak was jarring. While not unusual for the American President to be older than the British PM, it is jarring how much older Biden looks than King Charles.

[crazy canuck]

I recommend the latest LRB podcast on inflation and the political choices labour has.

[garbon]

So Huw's wife has now named him.

[Sheilbh]

Decades of royal coverage rendered unusable.

I've seen there's now allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards colleagues too - but that's the first thing that really feels like a justifiable story. Everything else so far seems to me to have been creepy behaviour but not unlawful or abusive.

But I thought that in the vidication over the Sun's first initial claims being disputed - I would have been very surprised if they'd gone to press the way they have with just one allegation.

Edit: But having said that they didn't lead on inappropriate behaviour in the workplace and I feel like if I were the Sun's lawyers I'd be getting a little worried.