Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[garbon]

There's a watch out for a certain broadcaster this evening and whether he will be on or not.

I assumed a male but then realized it has all been couched as they.

[Sheilbh]

The homophobia is that as soon as the story broke the first two names trending on social media were Rylan and Graham Norton.

Incidentally strongly recommend listening to the Rylan episode of Off Menu. He's great.

[mongers]

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-blasts-mean-home-office-removal-of-mickey-mouse-art-at-childrens-asylum-centre-2464574

Mr Farage added:

"These kids are just pawns in a criminal enterprise."

Harsh, but fair description of this tory government.

And from Farage of all people.

[Josquius]

The homophobia is that as soon as the story broke the first two names trending on social media were Rylan and Graham Norton.

Incidentally strongly recommend listening to the Rylan episode of Off Menu. He's great.

Rylan's creepiness goes beyond being gay surely?
He's the gay David Walliams.

Would be massively shocked if Graham Norton got up to anything dodgy. But then Rolf Harris caught me by surprise too.

[crazy canuck]

The CBC is reporting that the minor is female and the presenter is male.


But it is unclear how they know that

[Barrister]

There are important differences, but commentators are definitely reading up on the Canadian 1993 election when the right went from governing to third place and almost wiped out in some areas. It feels pretty plausible now.

I feel like it's a huge mistake to talk about "the right" in the 1993 election.  The governing party was the centre-right PCs, the Progressive Conservatives.  They went from a majority, to only electing 2 MPs (despite getting 16% of the vote).  There was also the right-wing Reform Party which surged into 3rd place with 52 MPs with 18% of the vote.  Reform had been founded in 1987, contested the 1988 election but as a minor party.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah. There's been a poll with Labour on over 50% - I think that is plausibly the result you'd get if you plug the results into a predictor on uniform national swing

Things get pretty wild once one partied over 50% and the others under 25%. Uniform national swing is pretty blunt - but the latest MRP projection had Labour on about 470 seats which isn't far off and a majority of about 150

There are important differences, but commentators are definitely reading up on the Canadian 1993 election when the right went from governing to third place and almost wiped out in some areas. It feels pretty plausible now.

The Canadian experience will provide no lessons whatsoever for the current situation in the UK. What happened in Canada is the reform party split from the progressive conservative party. The problem for the PCs was that the reform party was based in Alberta and south reformers took all the safe, progressive, conservative seats, further, once it became clear that the pieces had no chance in the election, because of the reform party split their usual supporters simply melted into the background. The liberals were essentially running unopposed.

[Barrister]

Yeah. There's been a poll with Labour on over 50% - I think that is plausibly the result you'd get if you plug the results into a predictor on uniform national swing

Things get pretty wild once one partied over 50% and the others under 25%. Uniform national swing is pretty blunt - but the latest MRP projection had Labour on about 470 seats which isn't far off and a majority of about 150

There are important differences, but commentators are definitely reading up on the Canadian 1993 election when the right went from governing to third place and almost wiped out in some areas. It feels pretty plausible now.

The Canadian experience will provide no lessons whatsoever for the current situation in the UK. What happened in Canada is the reform party split from the progressive conservative party. The problem for the PCs was that the reform party was based in Alberta and south reformers took all the safe, progressive, conservative seats, further, once it became clear that the pieces had no chance in the election, because of the reform party split their usual supporters simply melted into the background. The liberals were essentially running unopposed.

At risk of a 1993 Canadian election hijack...

It wasn't that PC supporters vanished.  They did get 16% of the vote.  The problem was more than 16% was completely inefficient - widely scattered around the country.  Reform won 52 seats on 18% of the vote because their voters were more concentrated in the west (not just Alberta, they won 24 of 32 seats in BC as well).  And the BQ did even better winning 54 seats on 13% of the vote - because their votes were 100% concentrated in Quebec.

I had to double check these numbers - but I had forgotten just how terribly the NDP did in that election, winning 9 seats on 6% of the vote.  So the Liberals benefitted not only from a split on the right, but also a collapse on the left.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah. There's been a poll with Labour on over 50% - I think that is plausibly the result you'd get if you plug the results into a predictor on uniform national swing

Things get pretty wild once one partied over 50% and the others under 25%. Uniform national swing is pretty blunt - but the latest MRP projection had Labour on about 470 seats which isn't far off and a majority of about 150

There are important differences, but commentators are definitely reading up on the Canadian 1993 election when the right went from governing to third place and almost wiped out in some areas. It feels pretty plausible now.

The Canadian experience will provide no lessons whatsoever for the current situation in the UK. What happened in Canada is the reform party split from the progressive conservative party. The problem for the PCs was that the reform party was based in Alberta and south reformers took all the safe, progressive, conservative seats, further, once it became clear that the pieces had no chance in the election, because of the reform party split their usual supporters simply melted into the background. The liberals were essentially running unopposed.

At risk of a 1993 Canadian election hijack...

It wasn't that PC supporters vanished.  They did get 16% of the vote.  The problem was more than 16% was completely inefficient - widely scattered around the country.  Reform won 52 seats on 18% of the vote because their voters were more concentrated in the west (not just Alberta, they won 24 of 32 seats in BC as well).  And the BQ did even better winning 54 seats on 13% of the vote - because their votes were 100% concentrated in Quebec.

I had to double check these numbers - but I had forgotten just how terribly the NDP did in that election, winning 9 seats on 6% of the vote.  So the Liberals benefitted not only from a split on the right, but also a collapse on the left.

I am not sure what you are disagreeing with.  The percentages you quote clearly indicate the PC support vanished when it became clear they could not form government, after the split.

Btw, the reason for the success in BC is because everyone who had been a PC supporter in those ridings simply changed team jerseys.  It's not like the Reform party won an election against the PCs, there were none remaining.

That is why it is odd for anyone in the UK to think there are lessons to learn.  The analogy would be the Tories moving en masse to another even more right wing party.

[Grey Fox]

Hijack Go!

The 93 federal election is quite the perfect storm. The conservative coalition collapse on all sides and that coalesce differently in the regions of Canada. The West went Reform; Francophone Quebec created the BQ; Ontario, English Quebec & Atlantic formed around the Liberals delivering them a very efficient victory.

I think it's an apt allegory for what is happening in the UK right now. Torie support is going to collapse. How will it reform? Is Labour going to be the only winner?

[crazy canuck]

Hijack Go!

The 93 federal election is quite the perfect storm. The conservative coalition collapse on all sides and that coalesce differently in the regions of Canada. The West went Reform; Francophone Quebec created the BQ; Ontario, English Quebec & Atlantic formed around the Liberals delivering them a very efficient victory.

I think it's an apt allegory for what is happening in the UK right now. Torie support is going to collapse. How will it reform? Is Labour going to be the only winner?

I think you are correct about the collapse.  But it largely happened before, not after the election.  Will the Tories disintegrate into competing parties if they lose big? It happened in Canada because of the regional differences.  I am not sure the same holds true in the UK.

[Barrister]

Hijack Go!

The 93 federal election is quite the perfect storm. The conservative coalition collapse on all sides and that coalesce differently in the regions of Canada. The West went Reform; Francophone Quebec created the BQ; Ontario, English Quebec & Atlantic formed around the Liberals delivering them a very efficient victory.

I think it's an apt allegory for what is happening in the UK right now. Torie support is going to collapse. How will it reform? Is Labour going to be the only winner?

I think you are correct about the collapse.  But it largely happened before, not after the election.  Will the Tories disintegrate into competing parties if they lose big? It happened in Canada because of the regional differences.  I am not sure the same holds true in the UK.

The equivalent would have to be if Tory support coalesced around something like Reform UK (the former Brexit party).  BUt that seems somewhat unlikely as that party has been around for awhile and other than as a single-issue protest vote hasn't gathered all that much support.  Looks like they're currently getting 5% in the polls.

But you never know - things can change fast in elections.  At the start of 1993 the PCs thought they had a good shot at staying in power - new leader Kim Campbell seemed popular.  This was the first election I ever seriously volunteered with (for Reform, naturally) and while we were all hopeful we were all shocked when at the end of the day we had done so well.

[Gups]

The homophobia is that as soon as the story broke the first two names trending on social media were Rylan and Graham Norton.

Incidentally strongly recommend listening to the Rylan episode of Off Menu. He's great.

Really? I saw Lineker and Vine

[crazy canuck]

Hijack Go!

The 93 federal election is quite the perfect storm. The conservative coalition collapse on all sides and that coalesce differently in the regions of Canada. The West went Reform; Francophone Quebec created the BQ; Ontario, English Quebec & Atlantic formed around the Liberals delivering them a very efficient victory.

I think it's an apt allegory for what is happening in the UK right now. Torie support is going to collapse. How will it reform? Is Labour going to be the only winner?

I think you are correct about the collapse.  But it largely happened before, not after the election.  Will the Tories disintegrate into competing parties if they lose big? It happened in Canada because of the regional differences.  I am not sure the same holds true in the UK.

The equivalent would have to be if Tory support coalesced around something like Reform UK (the former Brexit party).  BUt that seems somewhat unlikely as that party has been around for awhile and other than as a single-issue protest vote hasn't gathered all that much support.  Looks like they're currently getting 5% in the polls.

But you never know - things can change fast in elections.  At the start of 1993 the PCs thought they had a good shot at staying in power - new leader Kim Campbell seemed popular.  This was the first election I ever seriously volunteered with (for Reform, naturally) and while we were all hopeful we were all shocked when at the end of the day we had done so well.

I agree with that analysis.  It is funny, our experiences were entirely reversed.  It was the first election I did not seriously participate in (although I had only really been involved in three previous elections - a byelection and two national elections).

But by 93, everyone I knew from previous campaigns had flipped to the Reform party. There was no election team to speak of left for the PCs.  The MP I had worked for had lost in the previous election and the NPD held the riding.  None of the parties really appealed to me at that point, so I was one of those folks who just melted away.  Reform took the riding in that election. They benefitted from no vote splitting since the PCs were not viable anymore.  The MP I had worked for was the victim of Reform votes splitting in the previous election.

[Grey Fox]

My grandfather was a PC MP and, obviously, lost in '93. I remember not understanding why everyone was so downbeaten. What I remembered (and still do) was that in '88, it was quite the party!