Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

What I think will be curious with Charles is whether people accepted him as King George.
Yes, this may have been the norm for historic monarchs, but when he's such a well known figure as Charles...

I think it's easy to overstate - if the Queen had died the week after Diana's death there would have been a revolution. But I think time happened, they did lots to improve his perception in the public (I think he also mellowed into the role) plus I think opinions shifted and recognised that Charles basically had an affair with the woman he'd always loved but had been stopped from marrying because she'd had a divorce, which is mad.

I think he gets about 60% popularity and about 30% don't like him - which is nothing like the Queen who is over 90% popular - but I think will improve because when he becomes king just because he'll be doing that job. But also I think his public image will improve because his first job is mourning as a son which I think will get sympathy from people.

[Josquius]

What I think will be curious with Charles is whether people accepted him as King George.
Yes, this may have been the norm for historic monarchs, but when he's such a well known figure as Charles...

I think it's easy to overstate - if the Queen had died the week after Diana's death there would have been a revolution. But I think time happened, they did lots to improve his perception in the public (I think he also mellowed into the role) plus I think opinions shifted and recognised that Charles basically had an affair with the woman he'd always loved but had been stopped from marrying because she'd had a divorce, which is mad.

I think he gets about 60% popularity and about 30% don't like him - which is nothing like the Queen who is over 90% popular - but I think will improve because when he becomes king just because he'll be doing that job. But also I think his public image will improve because his first job is mourning as a son which I think will get sympathy from people.

I was talking purely in terms of name.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The whole kerfuffle over Camilla was ludicrous. But they even went to the lengths of giving Diana a virginity test   

In 1981 no less.

[Zanza]

How does that energy price cap of 2500 GBP work? What if I need much more than the avetage because I have to heat my swimming pool or so? Still capped?

[Richard Hakluyt]

No, it is a cap on what the average bill will be...so there is an associated price of a Kwh of gas and electricity that they do not publicise, possible because of slight variations in that price according to supllier.

[Tamas]

Isn't this still higher than the last cap, or am I misunderstanding something?

[Josquius]

No, it is a cap on what the average bill will be...so there is an associated price of a Kwh of gas and electricity that they do not publicise, possible because of slight variations in that price according to supllier.

Whats the odds not many people get under that cap...

[Sheilbh]

The whole kerfuffle over Camilla was ludicrous. But they even went to the lengths of giving Diana a virginity test   

In 1981 no less.

The entire thing is crazy. The institution is just kind of inhuman. I mean I think the Home Secretary still attended labour for the monarch's wife into this century.

How does that energy price cap of 2500 GBP work? What if I need much more than the avetage because I have to heat my swimming pool or so? Still capped?

There's some variation but I'm not sure how it works plus I think Sunak's announcement £400 for everyone and £1,000 for the poorest will still go ahead.

There's been debate around targeting - Truss and her team were keen on trying to just target people not paying top-rate income tax for example. The big issue is basically that any targeting on bills would need a new system or lots of systems to talk to each other - so it would complicated, slow and might not work. Which is why we've ended up with this (a bit like furlough) it's a blunt tool but it's available quickly.

From what I understand put simply the energy companies don't know which households have which tax status, they also don't know who just uses a lot of energy and who has a massive family. HMRC knows tax status but of individuals not households and doesn't have the information about their energy bills. DWP knows who's receiving benefits but doesn't necessarily know about the other stuff. So a target system would be a lot more complicated to get in place quickly.

Isn't this still higher than the last cap, or am I misunderstanding something?

Yes - it's about £500 higher, which is a point Labour's made. Flipside is Labour would cancel Sunak's £400 and £1,000 support so there's not much difference I don't think (and arguably the cap + £1,000 for the poor is more targeted).

[Richard Hakluyt]

Its a bit higher and about 3 times what we were paying a year or so back. So the goverment is splitting the pain between the consumer and the govt finances.

@zanza I'm paying 28p per Kwh for electricity atm and 7.3p for gas, that is the standard unprotected price and looks set to rise about 25% in october then be frozen at that level.

[Sheilbh]

Its a bit higher and about 3 times what we were paying a year or so back. So the goverment is splitting the pain between the consumer and the govt finances.

Yeah - I still slightly think subsidising consumers beyond £2,500 might have been better.

And I think when there's no to low growth and high inflation, everything in politics is basically about distributing the cost/pain.

[Sheilbh]

Harry and Meghan were in the UK anyway, but been confirmed that they're on their way to Balmoral too - which again seems a sign of how serious things are. Plus all permanent secretaries in the civil service have a meeting this afternoon on the situation.

Edit: And on seriousness, Huw Edwards is now hosting BBC News in a black tie (though no change to the news)

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm genuinely not sure about what would be the best level of subsidy. The prices are still high so people and businesses will still economise on energy use; that lowering of energy consumption is a necessary part of the mix.

I would have preferred it if the first x units of gas and electricity were at a reduced rate and, perhaps, subsequent units were charged at a rate higher than the one suggested by the current policy. That would be better targetted at the most vulnerable people and would cost no more; but it would be more complicated and there may be good reasons for keeping things as simple as possible.

[Sheilbh]

I'm genuinely not sure about what would be the best level of subsidy. The prices are still high so people and businesses will still economise on energy use; that lowering of energy consumption is a necessary part of the mix.

I would have preferred it if the first x units of gas and electricity were at a reduced rate and, perhaps, subsequent units were charged at a rate higher than the one suggested by the current policy. That would be better targetted at the most vulnerable people and would cost no more; but it would be more complicated and there may be good reasons for keeping things as simple as possible.

Yeah I suppose the issue with that approach is that energy use isn't necessarily an indication of waste/wealth - the elderly or people with large families will use a lot more energy than me. I have a good salary but my energy bill would be entirely covered while those people might be exposed to higher prices at the top and cut down on use they need.

I think Truss' team were looking at whether they could in effect just cap it for basic rate taxpayers. I think they realised that there were lots of higher rate payers who'd also need some support this winter and that it would be really complicated.

I often think about that article during covid that we're in the age of the database state, pointing out that the most successful bits of the covid response (furlough, support to business, vaccine rollouts) were all able to leverage existing databases while bits that utterly failed (test and trace) had to start from scratch. I suspect that a lot of this is going to be similar - policies will be shaped by whether we have an existing database we can leverage quickly.

[Zanza]

No, it is a cap on what the average bill will be...so there is an associated price of a Kwh of gas and electricity that they do not publicise, possible because of slight variations in that price according to supllier.

So the price cap is on the unit price (per kwh) and if I use an average amount of electricity and gas, I would be at roughly 2.500 GBP, but if I use more or less that fixed price per kwh still applies?

[Sheilbh]

So the price cap is on the unit price (per kwh) and if I use an average amount of electricity and gas, I would be at roughly 2.500 GBP, but if I use more or less that fixed price per kwh still applies?

I think so - plus there's a support fund for people above that who can't afford their bills.