Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Ah the dignity of state - it's raining so they're having to move the podium into Downing Street and Truss' motorcade is stuck in traffic in Shepherd's Bush, so she's about an hour late to her own speech

Edit: Before they moved the podium inside:


And I feel like Prime Minister bin bag couldn't do worse than Johnson or (probably) Truss

[Tamas]

And I feel like Prime Minister bin bag couldn't do worse than Johnson or (probably) Truss

 

[Sheilbh]

Second is about her background. No wonder that she comes from comfortably upper-middle class, but surprised that her family was actually quite left wing, to the point that her own father couldn't bring himself to support her political career for the Tories.

Oh yeah - the Times had a really good profile. But she was going on CND, "Maggie! Maggie! Maggie! Out! Out! Out!" marches from when she was a kid.

Her dad doesn't support her political career or aspirations, her mum does. I think there was a story about a family friend emailing one of her parents when she first became an MP along the linees of "so sorry to hear your daughter's a T***".

Both her and Truss basically come from the comfortable public sector middle class - him with a GP and a pharmacist as parents, with her a maths professor and a teacher. Before this campaign she'd previously said that the transformative moment in her politics was moving to Vancouver as a kid - they were only there for a year but I think she's said that the sense of freedom and optimism in Canada v Britain was formative (and a really common theme in Brits who move to Canada or the US).

I wonder now how much of her political ideology got shapen up during her youth, how much is sincere held belief and how much a reaction to what she was brought up as. Also, she was actually a Lib-Dem until university, but this doesn't seem to have any remaining influence in her political thinking apparently.

I'm not sure I'd go that far. Again the Times profile was quite interesting - while she was at university and an active Lib Dem she apparently really liked pushing the social issues: abolish the monarchy, decriminalise drugs but was also a member of the Hayek Society which is a free market society at Oxford so I think she was always quite on the libertarian/small state wing of the Lib Dems (like the ones who went into government with Cameron and Osborne and voted with Truss for five years). But at the same time she was also saying how much she admired Thatcher etc - there's possibly in it all a bit of provocation and I don't think you need to be Freudian to say it's maybe a bit of a rebellion against two achingly stereotypical academic lefty parents

It's striking that she left university in the late 90s, at the peak of New Labour, became a Tory and ran for councillor which is an odd choice. Similar with Sunak who ran as the Tory in his school's fake election in 1997, primarily motivated by his fear of Blair's fondness for European federalism and risk of signing up to a European super-state. In both cases there's something odd about being young and Tory at any time, but particularly 97/98

That she was a rather staunch Remainer turned fervent Brexiteer is something that brings shivers down my spine. The fervour of the convert, and all that.

That is the question with Truss - is she a convert, a deep to-her-bones libertarian and right wing ideologue, or is she basically a chameleon who pragmatically shifts to match the audience she needs to impress?

My take is that it's more of the latter - you can plot a course of convictions through her political career. But she started as a poster-girl for Cameron in the 2010 election, she was a loyal junior minister who was close to Osborne and a very active remain campaigner, she was a loyal minister who repeatedly voted for all of May's deals and she then became an arch-Brexiteer banging on about freedom under Johnson and in pitching to the membership. I think she probably has more deep-seated beliefs and is more ideological than Johnson, but that's not saying much.

All in all, I feel rather sorry for you Brits. She really comes up as a pretty terrible candidate. That she was considered the better one is something I really can't wrap my head around.

She's been courting the membership for a while. But in focus groups the number one issue that Tory members wanted after Johnson was someone who "understands people like me" and trust issues. I'm not sure Truss is the best candidate on those issues (and neither is the public in polling) but she was up against a man who'd quite possibly be our richest PM ever, who got fined for a covid breach like Johnson and whose wife got caught tax dodging.

It's a real case of timing and contingency - I think if Sunak had resigned in January or February he'd have forced a similar leadership race and he'd now be PM. Now of course reporting was that Sunak was of the view that Ukraine would lose and the UK would have to deal with Putin eventually anyway, so maybe it's for the best that he didn't?

A thought.
This energy crisis does need strong action. The government can't just ignore it.
But...its such an obvious thing that needs doing it could be seen as almost a free win for Truss.
Might she save the country from the inevitable bazillion pound energy bills and then off the back of this freebie call an election?

I could be wrong and generally the Tories win elections.

I think she will get a bounce if she is seen as dealing with the energy crisis (from a very low base) - and if it is a price cap for consumers for 18 months plus support for business, then I think that will be seen as dealing with it (and is bigger than what Labour or the Lib Dems have proposed). There may be a honeymoon effect as I suspect most people don't really know much about her, particularly if her first impression is dealing a crisis well.

But I think the only way she's likely to win an election (although - see above, T&Cs may vary ) is if she calls an election at the peak of that honeymoon. It's a bit like Brown in 2007 dealing with floods and foiled terrorist attacks - "not flash, just Gordon" - when he should have gone for an election She might do that - politically I think it's probably best for her - but I suspect they'll actually miss the window and end up holding on until the last possible date for a new election, just like Major in the 90s.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think a May 2024 election would be acceptable to all, but if she went earlier there would be a cost in terms of votes. Some people really seem to hate having to vote frequently.

[Sheilbh]

I think a May 2024 election would be acceptable to all, but if she went earlier there would be a cost in terms of votes. Some people really seem to hate having to vote frequently.

Brenda, from Bristol - a true hero

But agree I want to get back to spring/early summer elections. It's wrong voting in winter. Apparently the last date the next election can be is 28 January 2025, which is probably when it'll be

[Tamas]

First of all, elections should be held on Sundays.

[Sheilbh]

NO! They should be public holidays of an otherwise working day

And we should do the Aussie thing of local charities fundraising at polling stations, plus democracy sausages.

[Sheilbh]

Today in planning news

Councillors reject homes plan described as 'Putinism'
Noah Vickers, Local Democracy Reporter
Published: 1:19 PM September 6, 2022


The proposed placement of the homes on land outside the plot allocated for development was described as 'Putinism' by one local resident. - Credit: Google/Mikhail Klimentyev

A plan to build five new homes in a seaside village has been refused by councillors, after a resident claimed it represented a 'Putinist' attempt to encroach on the countryside.

The project would have seen the removal of a large metal building at Eastgate Barns in Holme-next-the-Sea, near Hunstanton.

In its place would have gone four three-bedroom two-storey homes and one two-bedroom bungalow.

But a number of residents, along with the parish council, objected to the scheme, arguing that it went against the community's neighbourhood plan - a document outlining how the village should develop over the coming years.

One resident, John Hulme, told a Monday planning committee meeting that he and his wife had moved to the village to improve their mental and physical health.

He said their health was now at risk again, due to the anxiety caused by "developers riding roughshod over adopted planning policy, threatening the ethos and character of the village".

He pointed out that the developer was proposing to build beyond the plot of land allocated for new homes in the neighbourhood plan.

"I see this as Putinism. The architect at our village meeting last December admitted that he'd made an error on the boundary, but he has chosen not to correct this," Mr Hulme claimed.

He added that the planning application reflected "greed, not need".

Parish councillor Lynn Devereaux said the community wants to see "some modest homes in our village, so that some ordinary people can come and live in Holme, and help restore the social balance.

"We don't need houses of the size being proposed here and the lavish specifications that accompany them."

Jason Law, the applicant's agent, rebuffed these criticisms, saying: "These are sensibly produced houses.

"We've done the research, we've employed professionals in housing - not planning, not developer gains."

He argued that the homes were an appropriate size for growing families in Holme and had sufficient space for people living in a rural area.

Conservative councillor Colin Sampson said that while he liked the look of the development, the neighbourhood plan had to be respected: "If it [the neighbourhood plan] means anything, we have got to go with it.

"Anywhere else, any other time, I would have said 'Yes, let's do it.'"

Some 13 councillors voted to reject the scheme with five people abstaining.

The claim that building on an area not specified by the Neighbourhood Plan is equivalent to a full-scale invasion of another country is one thing, but I think my favourite is the concern about "lavish" three bedroom homes and a couple of bungalows

Glad we're preserving those precious barns though.

[Josquius]

Someone needs to make a website to track this stuff as it happens so others can properly register how ridiculous they find it.

I do reckon given more of a push there's enough people who would be fine with building to drown out such idiocy.

And on elections, postal voting for all! And make it easier to pick whether to vote in your hometown or temporary residence to better fit the 21st century way of life.

[Tamas]

OMFG

[Sheilbh]

OMFG

"In retrospect it was a mistake calling our planning application 'On the historical unity of Eastgate Barns and Holme-next-the-Sea'."

I suspect the worry here given location, comments about character and lavish bungalows is holiday homes - which may be fair. But still

[Syt]

"four three-bedroom two-storey homes and one two-bedroom bungalow"

and

"We don't need houses of the size being proposed here"

... does not compute. 

[Sheilbh]

Probably worth flagging that it's now confirmed - this is the first cabinet where none of the great offices of state are held by a white man.

The Tories will love this mainly because it again just draws attention to Labour's problems/makes Labour feel awkward - at the very least we really need a woman leader after Starmer. And for all the "we just want the best candidate" - from the last ten years I think Yvette Cooper, Liz Kendall and Lisa Nandy (plus Angela Rayner if she'd gone for it) would've done a far better job than any of Labour's actual leaders in that time

[The Larch]

"four three-bedroom two-storey homes and one two-bedroom bungalow"

and

"We don't need houses of the size being proposed here"

... does not compute. 

Obviously they don't want families living there, only retirees.

[Sheilbh]

First thing first, she's much younger than I though. For some reason I had her penciled up as well in her 50s, but turns out she's only 47. Don't know if this was because of her very stiff/buttoned up appearence or what.

Incidentally I hadn't realised either - I wasn't sure how young she was. I was deeply concerned about Sunak becoming PM given that he's 42 and that's well within a decade of my age

But there's loads of ex-PMs now - except for Major, Blair and Brown most of them would be coming into their prime 50-60 years ago. And again comparison of European leaders v US is just weird:

Today, for first time in history, we will have six former Prime Ministers still alive: John Major (79), Tony Blair (69), Gordon Brown (71), David Cameron (55), Theresa May (65) and Boris Johnson (58).  What's remarkable is how young these ex-PMs are - none is yet 80.