Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

My prediction is that it will someone crap 

[celedhring]

From over here Liz Truss comes across as the ultimate tory. Brash, unempathic, laissez-faire fetishist, and a flimflam artist. She's only missing the sordid personal life (I read she cheated on her husband but that doesn't really clear the bar).

[Sheilbh]

But, surely not

Sounds like Truss is looking at the energy industry's plan which is basically a price freeze. Not sure it's the right option, as I think subsidising consumers is probably the better option but it's a bit six of one, half dozen of the other.

Also Kwarteng in the FT writing about the need to change from the "managerialism" of the last 20 years and move to all focus on growth with a target of 2.5% growth (or basically pre-financial crisis growth) while ignoring debt/deficit, because growth is the best way to reduce debt. Or basically what Ed Balls was proposing in 2010

[Sheilbh]

From over here Liz Truss seems like the ultimate tory. Brash, unempathic, laissez-faire fetishist, and a flimflam artist. She's only missing the sordid personal life (I read she cheated on her husband but that doesn't really clear the bar).

There's lots of quite lurid rumours about Liz Truss' personal life among journalists. Nothing's come out yet presumaby either because it's not been properly confirmed or they can't work out a public interest angle to report on it. But that may come out

Edit: As expected although still a lot narrower than the polls of Tory members:

Liz Truss: 57.4%
Rishi Sunak: 42.6%

[The Larch]

And Truss it is.

[mongers]

And Truss it is.

In God we truss.

[Tamas]

And she thanks the outgoing leader, "my friend Boris Johnson". She goes on:

Boris, you got Brexit done. You crushed Jeremy Corbyn, you rolled out the vaccine. And you stood up to Vladimir Putin. You were admired from Kyiv to Carlisle.

Awww!

[mongers]

And she thanks the outgoing leader, "my friend Boris Johnson". She goes on:

Boris, you got Brexit done. You crushed Jeremy Corbyn, you rolled out the vaccine. And you stood up to Vladimir Putin. You were admired from Kyiv to Carlisle.

Awww!

Why is she alluding to him not being liked in Scotland?

[Tamas]

But, surely not

Sounds like Truss is looking at the energy industry's plan which is basically a price freeze. Not sure it's the right option, as I think subsidising consumers is probably the better option but it's a bit six of one, half dozen of the other.

Also Kwarteng in the FT writing about the need to change from the "managerialism" of the last 20 years and move to all focus on growth with a target of 2.5% growth (or basically pre-financial crisis growth) while ignoring debt/deficit, because growth is the best way to reduce debt. Or basically what Ed Balls was proposing in 2010

With 10%+ inflation, spending like crazy in an attempt to switch the economy into overdrive... I mean, ah, what's the point, we are fucked. 

[Sheilbh]

As Economist pointed out - it's not a great context to come in as PM. Lowest party support for an incoming PM, highest inflation since Thatcher of Callaghan, biggest fall in real wages in the last year, biggest increase in interest rates in the last year since Thatcher etc.

Interesting that the three things she flagged in her speech were energy bills, tax cuts and the NHS - two of those three are what I'd focus on, given there's at most 2 years to the next election.

And not massively popular on any of the issues:


Or seen particularly positively by the public:


I wouldn't necessarily rule her out because ultimately PMs can do things. But....doesn't look great.

[Sheilbh]

With 10%+ inflation, spending like crazy in an attempt to switch the economy into overdrive... I mean, ah, what's the point, we are fucked.

Anthony Barber's "dash for growth" all over again - but with tax cuts. I'd push back that aiming to return to pre-financial crisis growth is overdrive; I think that should be the policy goal and I'd prioritise it over budget cuts.

Although, I don't see a reality in which there isn't massive spending to cover energy bills - it's politically necessary and it's the right thing to do.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'll say one thing good about her, she has a keen interest in cheese 

[Syt]

And not massively popular on any of the issues:

Or seen particularly positively by the public:

The more important question is, I suppose, would there be any reasonable alternatives that would score significantly better across the board?

[Tamas]

With 10%+ inflation, spending like crazy in an attempt to switch the economy into overdrive... I mean, ah, what's the point, we are fucked.

Anthony Barber's "dash for growth" all over again - but with tax cuts. I'd push back that aiming to return to pre-financial crisis growth is overdrive; I think that should be the policy goal and I'd prioritise it over budget cuts.

Although, I don't see a reality in which there isn't massive spending to cover energy bills - it's politically necessary and it's the right thing to do.

My main (repeating) point is that in the US they have half of the UK's inflation yet they appear perfectly content to risk recession to make sure inflation is stopped before it develops into a spiral. I don't know what is the right policy to prevent the UK-specific inflation from running rampant, but I am fairly sure it's not the desperate chase to re-ignite the boom cycle.

[Sheilbh]

And she thanks the outgoing leader, "my friend Boris Johnson". She goes on:

Boris, you got Brexit done. You crushed Jeremy Corbyn, you rolled out the vaccine. And you stood up to Vladimir Putin. You were admired from Kyiv to Carlisle.

Awww!

Not going to lie - I loved the awkward silence after that before someone started clapping

The more important question is, I suppose, would there be any reasonable alternatives that would score significantly better across the board?

I think there's others who would do better - but not in this race. Which was Sunak's big problem. His strategy was "I'm more electable than Liz Truss" and while people soured on Truss the more of her they saw, they also didn't really rate him.

It's an incredible example of timing. I think if Sunak went at the peak of partygate stories breaking in January or February, he'd be PM right now. But he dithered and wasn't even the first to push Johnson out - and in the meantime the story about his wife's tax status and his green card broke and his personal ratings fell by 25%. He recovered a bit but not by much.