[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

The Libs will soon announce the oil industry will be exempt from reaching its target emissions cap by 2030.

It is truly a blessing we have a government dedicated to the environmental cause who takes these things seriously.

[crazy canuck]

I sure hope that speculation is not accurate.

[viper37]

I sure hope that speculation is not accurate.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/oil-gas-emissions-reduction-guilbeault-climate-vonscheel-1.6528307

[crazy canuck]

More time is something the world does not have.

[viper37]

More time is something the world does not have.

That's a sentiment our current environment minister seemed to have, back when he wasn't environment minister...

Harper's plan was realistict, but less ambitious than the Liberals plan.  Which they never really intended to respect, as it turns out.

Unless the next CPC leader is the crook, it's unlikely there's going to be any kind of environmental or GHG emission reduction plan from the Conservatives. 

The NDP was really happy to sacrifice the environment in favour of some dental plan and pharmacare, screwing the provinces out of their money to establish some coast-to-coast national program that no one really wanted. 

The Green Party is nowhere to be found. 

Yep, it's really a  great time for the defense of the environment in Canada.

[viper37]

Harper endorses Poilièvre.  His hatred of Charest knows no bound.

I understand his loathing of the guy, I can't stand him myself.  I just can't see the party standing united with Poilièvre at its head.

[viper37]

In case that wasn't clear enough, a very interesting graphic about Federal election polls, Charest vs Poilièvre:


Both scenarios are identical for the Conservatives, but the Liberals have less traction with Charest as head of the PC and more people turn to the PPC.
If Poilièvre wins, more people will vote Liberal and the PPC will get around 3% of the vote.

[Grey Fox]

Ontario is still not on the CPC train then.

[Jacob]

Ontario is still not on the CPC train then.

Still enough for a Conservative win, though.

[viper37]

Ontario is still not on the CPC train then.

Still enough for a Conservative win, though.

With Poilièvre as head of the CPC, the Liberal Party will get a minority government.  the polls will increase slightly in their favour as people get to know the knew leader and the party implodes.

Under Charest, the CPC could form a credible alternative to the Liberals.  A not so honest leader with the habit of making vague promises and wasting taxpayers money.

[Grey Fox]

Ontario is still not on the CPC train then.

Still enough for a Conservative win, though.

I don't see it with those percentage. 34% CPC is barely enough for 120 MPs considering how inefficient their vote base is distributed.

We might also be looking at a Quebec with no CPC MPs after our next election.

[Jacob]

Ontario is still not on the CPC train then.

Still enough for a Conservative win, though.

I don't see it with those percentage. 34% CPC is barely enough for 120 MPs considering how inefficient their vote base is distributed.

We might also be looking at a Quebec with no CPC MPs after our next election.

Ah yeah... I read the chart as being for Ontario, but it's Canada all up, isn't it?

[viper37]

Yes, it's a poll for all of Canada.
CPC: 34% with both leaders
Liberal: 24% if Charest, 29% if PP.
PPC: 7% if Charest, 3% if PP.

The last election was 33.74% for the Cons which gave them 119 seats.
The Libs got 33.12% and had 157% seats.

At 29%, 2 years away from any campaign, the Libs are kinda in a comfortable position to regain a minority government at the very least.

Always in motion the world is, but I can't see the Conservative winning an election with PP.  They gain votes from Bernier's party, votes that would never go to the Libs anyway, they are votes that would either go nowhere (abstention) or to the Conservatives.

[crazy canuck]

I am not sure, but that CPC number looks to be basically what the Conservative vote always is - and concentrated in Alberta.  As usual, the election will be decided in Ontario with Quebec being the wild card (can any federal party gain seats there).

I think the take away is that one will attract from the centre of Canadian politics and the other only really appeals to the far right.  But the bulk of voters are going to stand pat whoever the Conservative leader is.

BB is likely a good example of the stand pat group - he will probably vote Conservative no matter who is elected as the leader.  But the real question is how do the Conservatives gain a majority government, or even a minority by attracting sufficient support outside the Conservative base.  Neither leadership hopeful looks to be able to pull that off.

[Grey Fox]

Ontario is still not on the CPC train then.

Still enough for a Conservative win, though.

I don't see it with those percentage. 34% CPC is barely enough for 120 MPs considering how inefficient their vote base is distributed.

We might also be looking at a Quebec with no CPC MPs after our next election.

Ah yeah... I read the chart as being for Ontario, but it's Canada all up, isn't it?

Yes.

RoC only polls don't include the BQ at 7% usually. (It's nation wide number is between 7% to 9%)