Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

As mad a response as you'd expect in new UK sanctions, which include Patriarch Kiril, but I was surprised at the mid point when he had a moan (correctly) about Henry VIII and the Reformation:
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1537711934992162817?s=21&t=vIbrmTBS2iToZg71SzRJmA

[Richard Hakluyt]

 

He devoted far too much time to her imo, best not to get needled by inconsequential people. A quick replay of the "cheese" speech would have sufficed.

The historical point was well made though 

[Sheilbh]

They seem really focused on Truss whenever I see the clips of them ranting about the UK. It's weird - Johnson will get a passing message and then the rest will be about Truss. I'm not sure why - it might simply be sexism.

Edit: And Wallace doesn't seem to get a look in.

[Richard Hakluyt]

...nor Gromit 

[Sheilbh]

Apologies for Guido content but this clip from a hustings in Tiverton and Honiton does not look great for the Tories:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_MhOVuhUxqo&t=145s&pp=2AGRAZACAQ%3D%3D

I'm not sure if it is really "blue wall" (in my head that's prosperous suburbs not big rural constituencies in a county like Devon) but it really show the risk for the Tories. I think if the Lib Dems win (and they're briefing that they're 2 points behind, just as they're flooding the constituency with activists) it will be the biggest majority ever overturned in a by election.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Voter motivation is going to be very important I think. People who think that Johnson is a lying toad are more likely to make their way to the polling place than people who are still Tories but understandably not enthused with the current shower.

Also, with a by-election, I always feel that the way to vote tactically is clearer to people with only a moderate interest in politics.

[Richard Hakluyt]

...and Johnson has skipped meeting a load of northern MPs and has turned up in Kiyiv 

Good campaign move I suppose.

[Josquius]

The big news last night was the leading EU leaders (plus Romania. Carrying the bags I guess?) visiting.
Johnson going today seems like he's running after them. Interesting timing.

[Sheilbh]

...and Johnson has skipped meeting a load of northern MPs and has turned up in Kiyiv 

Good campaign move I suppose.

I'm not sure - I think people will be a bit annoyed about it to be honest. I feel like cancelling a campaign trip to Red Wall seat and addressing a conference of Northern Tories is probably not a great look, especially given that there was no advance warning so apparently all involved were really surprised this morning. But also I don't think anyone seriously believes UK policy on Ukraine would be different under any other Tory leader (now Sunak's imploded) or Starmer - I think it might help with MPs but basically no-one else. Though I could be wrong.

Also I think there's that thing going on with PMs who are increasingly unpopular at home liking to spend more and more time on foreign policy because it allows them to sketch statesmanlike visions and takes them to places where they're treated with a degree of respect. I feel like there's a bit of that going on.

Johnson going today seems like he's running after them. Interesting timing.

Maybe a bit - but all of them hadn't visited Kyiv before and were beginning to look like outliers in Europe given how many other leaders had made the trip. I think VdL has done two as well which is good.

Also if Johnson keeps feeling that he needs to announce new support for Ukraine to stave off more leadership challenges - I view that as very much a silver lining to everything else

[Sheilbh]

I've seen rumours of snap elections for a while and assumed it must be nonsense because it's such a stupid idea - but here's Paul Waugh on it. The idea the government think going for an election in October, a month the BofE project will see inflation peaking at 11%, strikes me as a very brave strategy:

A Tory plan to have a general election in October is not as mad as it sounds
Some MPs are discussing the pros and cons of an autumn election. 'Don't forget he's a gambler, that's what he does: high risk, high reward.'
By Paul Waugh
Chief Political Commentator
June 17, 2022 4:46 pm(Updated 6:32 pm)

In the House of Commons on Monday, Tory backbencher Fay Jones urged Environment Secretary George Eustice to "restate his support for the UK red meat sector". As a farmer himself, Eustice unsurprisingly had no hesitation in doing so.

But the exchange was a fitting start to a week that was dominated by political "red meat", thrown at a rapid rate by Boris Johnson towards both his Tory backbenchers and key voter groups. Needing to keep his MPs onside to avoid another leadership challenge, and to get the public back onside to have a hope of winning the next general election, Johnson clearly felt his carnival of carnivores was smart politics.

What was lovingly called "Wedge Week" by some Conservative insiders was certainly dominated by a trio of dividing-line issues that Johnson believes could sate the appetite of both groups: Brexit, immigration and trade union power.

The new Northern Ireland Protocol bill was a fresh attempt to look robust with Brussels. The attempted deportation of asylum seekers to Rwanda was meant to show he was "taking back control" of Britain's borders. The ramped-up rhetoric on next week's national rail strike was all about claiming Labour was on the side of the unions rather than the public.

With two by-elections due next week in West Yorkshire and Devon, the "red meat" tactics looked designed at least in part as a defensive move to try to avoid a double defeat. Yet they were also a dry-run for the kind of aggressive campaign the Tories want to run at the next general election when voters face a stark, forced choice between Johnson and Keir Starmer.

And it's chatter about a snap election that has restarted again this week among several front and backbenchers in both main parties. At risk of upsetting Brenda from Bristol, there's fresh speculation that the PM is thinking of going for an autumn election. There's even a tentative date pencilled in some diaries: Thursday 27 October.

Given the Conservatives are between two and eight points behind in the polls, the very idea seems like madness to some. But the rationale may not be as mad as it first seems. First, some Tory strategists think the Labour lead is "soft" and can be changed in the heat of a campaign that plays to Johnson's obvious strengths as a salesman and highlights Starmer's weakness in failing to connect with the public.

Second, there's a growing feeling among some in the party that an election has to either come early (this year) or very late (2024). The economy may head into recession in the winter and 2023 is seen as a non-starter because it will take time to turn things round. Crucially, NHS waiting lists will get worse before they get better, as Health Secretary Sajid Javid has admitted.

Just as importantly, going early would avoid three other chronic problems the PM faces: the Privileges Committee into whether he mislead Parliament over Partygate (expected to report in November), the national Covid inquiry (expected to start this autumn) and another confidence vote by his MPs (which technically can't be held again until next June).

Avoiding a boundary review would also maintain the loyalty of some Tory troops. Chuck in a party conference in early October that would act as a mass rally, and a possible emergency Budget to secure fast-tracked income tax cuts, and the logic looks far from demented.

What's interesting is how an October election is being touted not just by Johnson allies (who think he can win) but also some Johnson critics. Some rebels think that if a new Tory leader installed this summer, they can't afford to "do a Gordon Brown", when the former PM was defeated in 2010 after bottling an early 2007 election he may have won.

The whole idea is still fraught with danger, but some MPs think it's credible. "Don't forget he's a gambler, that's what he does: high risk, high reward," as one put it to me. One MP said: "He's mad enough to bring the whole house down, but it could work."

Senior Labour figures are also acutely aware of a snap election possibility, even if they believe it would be very high risk for Johnson. They accept he may shrug off a double by-election defeat by pointing out that Wakefield was always on the edge of 2019 expectations and that most "stunning" Lib Dem gains often revert back to the Tories at a general election.

One upside of a snap campaign would be less time in which to be outspent by the wall of cash the Conservatives usually command. The downside would be Labour has yet to sort its own policy programme fit for a manifesto, and more importantly has yet to even select candidates for some key marginal seats where incumbency may protect sitting Tory MPs.

Labour is confident that its own conference this September will put on display an alternative government team, with the economy at the heart of the key speeches by Starmer and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

But the party knows it has work to do on immigration policy, on Brexit and on avoiding being depicted as relying on the SNP after a hung Parliament. Even before Johnson's lightning trip to Kyiv today, one Labour insider told me: "Zelensky will probably be guest speaker at the Tory conference and they will absolutely rinse that for everything they can."

Whether or not there really is a general election this year, just the threat of one is focusing some minds in both parties. One danger for Johnson would be that he has so little concrete change (especially on "levelling up") to show for his three years in No 10.

And dangling the prospect of "red meat" is one thing, actually delivering it is another. If it looks like he's lost control of immigration, if a low-growth economy is ravaged by strikes and if Brexit still doesn't look "done", the risk is that both his party and the voters may bite him instead.

I think the stuff on "Johnson the salesman" is vastly inflated. I keep saying it because I think it matters - he's the only PM in history to start with a negative approval rating and was less popular in the 2019 campaign than May was in 2017. What mattered was a desire to end the parliamentary chaos over Brexit and people's had changed/made up their mind on Corbyn:


But all this does seem like it tracks with what you'd expect from Crosby and his team - and there is a logic to either doing it soon or very late (January 2025?). All of the argguments for it though basically seem to be "things are going to get worse" which is not great and some of them are quite specifically "things are going to get worse for Boris Johnson" which probably won't reassure Tory MPs in marginals.

Edit: Also this will test my theory that unless it's absolutely necessary, voters hate early elections that aren't in a 4-5 year cycle. I also suspect they might not be super keen on one called purely in transparent self interest.

Edit: And, incidentally, there's no real evidence this has been a successful week for the Tories from polling or anything like that. I hope they continue down this path of "work out a line on an issue" to "decide it's a huge vote-winner" without any intermediate stage to look at public opinion as I think it'll be a roaring success for everyone

[Jacob]

Also if Johnson keeps feeling that he needs to announce new support for Ukraine to stave off more leadership challenges - I view that as very much a silver lining to everything else

Yeah that's pretty good if true

[Richard Hakluyt]

Brenda from Bristol will be very cross if an early election is called https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6-IQAdFU3w

....and she would not be alone. A lot of people not particularly interested in politics get annoyed if a government throws the towel in early; I think they see it as a form of shirking....which it is.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - and rightly so.

I think people can understand an early election if it's clear that a government can't be formed or parliament can't function. But outside of those circumstances I think the vast majority of people who, as you say, are not interested in or following politics get angry/annoyed when it's just so someone can have a bigger majority/save their job.

Edit:

Yeah that's pretty good if true

Yeah the latest public offer seems to be for the UK to train 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers every 120 days - plus a proposal for other countries to join the scheme. My understanding is Ukraine still has vast numbers of volunteer forces so presumably the idea is the UK (and others) train them outside of Ukraine and when they return they can be more usefully used (and know how to operate NATO equipment).

Rumous of more MLRS too.

[Barrister]

Brenda from Bristol will be very cross if an early election is called https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6-IQAdFU3w

....and she would not be alone. A lot of people not particularly interested in politics get annoyed if a government throws the towel in early; I think they see it as a form of shirking....which it is.

I dunno.  In my own Canadian experience people say they're upset that a government is calling an early election - but it rarely seems to be an actual factor by election day.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - our recent experience, which Brenda was unhappy about, was May calling an election when she had a majority to strengthen her possition and losing her majority