Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

To be fair I can see how it happened. Using flags to represent the nations of the UK does sort of fall apart when you hit Northern Ireland.
Just what should they have done, assuming the flag decision is set?

[Sheilbh]

Got to feel for the poor BBC producer asked to get a Northern Irish flag for the montage given that it's a subject that's literally started riots and got entire books written about it.

Of course the DUP are pushing for the Ulster banner - but it has a literal crown on it. So I'm not sure that's a great solution....

[Gups]

THreshold finally passed and no confidence vote to be held between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. today with the result announced shortly afterwards.

My guess is that he wins by about 40. That would be a good outcome in terms of the Tories continuing to tear themselves apart in time for a big election loss in 23/24 but pretty awful for the country faced with several more years of dreadfully poor governance.

[Sheilbh]

My guess is that he wins by about 40. That would be a good outcome in terms of the Tories continuing to tear themselves apart in time for a big election loss in 23/24 but pretty awful for the country faced with several more years of dreadfully poor governance.

I think there's a chance he'll lose. The briefing at the minute about him doing a re-shuffle if he wins to promote the loyal and punish the disloyal sounds exactly like what you'd be saying if you were worried about the payroll vote. I'd be amazed if he does better than Theresa May - and after that he'll be a dead man walking even if he wins.

Agree on the bad for the country point, but I think it gets to the point that I don't think the issue is necessarily Johnson. I think he has to go but I don't think all of the issues the Tories have are because of him. I think the party doesn't have a vision, is fairly split and has an incoherent coalition of "lower taxes" and "leveling up". I don't think that goes away without Johnson - and arguably Johnson with his cakeism was maybe the person who could hold it all together and those issues will get worse without him.

So I think you'll either end up with a candidate who picks a side and is unable to get anything done because of party splits, or you get someone who carries on trying to straddle both sides and does incoherence more competently. I'm not sure either is particularly great for the country.

[Josquius]

I really can't see any replacement tory pm being any better. The country is fucked for the foreseeable future either way. If there are any competent tory mps they're very wisely keeping their head down and wanting nought to do with the current situation.

[Sheilbh]

I never really get the cut and paste message of support from cabinet ministers/loyalist MPs. Do they not understand that the fact it's cut and paste undemines its effectiveness. I get that party spin doctors have always needed politicians who can have a line and communicate it but the best communicate it authentically in their own voice which people seem to have forgotten with social media.

But lots of people noting that Penny Mordaunt hasn't tweeted out her support yet - she's mainly tweeting about the D-Day commemoration event she's at in her Portsmouth constituency. In other leadership contender news, Jeremy Hunt has come out for a no confidence vote:

Jeremy Hunt
@Jeremy_Hunt
The Conservative Party must now decide if it wishes to change its leader. Because of the situation in Ukraine this was not a debate I wanted to have now but under our rules we must do that.
Having been trusted with power, Conservative MPs know in our hearts we are not giving the British people the leadership they deserve. We are not offering the integrity, competence and vision necessary to unleash the enormous potential of our country.
And because we are no longer trusted by the electorate, who know this too, we are set to lose the next general election.
Anyone who believes our country is stronger, fairer & more prosperous when led by Conservatives should reflect that the consequence of not changing will be to hand the country to others who do not share those values. Today's decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change

Johnson's put out a "dear colleagues" letter that basically does the whole it's time to move on thing and says the issues with his leadership are just what the opposition and media want to talk about. I'm not sure that's the best line to take as, from what I've read, one of the reasons Tory MPs are so uncomfortable is that they're getting earfuls about him in their constituencies (where they'll have been for the long weekend) and from constituents who are not just the usual suspects. But also from reporters I've heard, a lot of MPs are really annoyed at Johnson's attitude in private meetings and the 1922 Committee where he apologises but basically gives the sense that he thinks it's all blown out of proportion and there's no need for him to be apologetic really - a couple of MPs have called this out specifically, such as Steve Baker. I could be wrong but it seems like his letter today actually feeds into two of the main criticisms of him among backbenchers.

Some MPs trying to push a "it's a Remainer plot" line but it doesn't work because Johnson has prominent critics in every faction of the party - ERG, 2019ers, One Nation Tories, red wallers, blue wallers etc. There's dissatisfaction across the party which reflects that while the Theresa May challenge was fundamentally about her policy, the one against Johnson isn't - it's about him personally. Also in terms of polling in 2019 the Tories were about 75% of the Leave vote - now they're on about 50% which hardly suggests that it's just Remainers who're behind his problems.

Edit: I've said before that there are no Johnsonites - and that's not quite true. There are the cabinet minister who know that no other PM would have them in high office so are clinging deperately to Johnson, such as Rees-Mogg and Dorries. So Dorries has responded to Jeremy Hunt's tweets as below - I don't think this type of thing will help Johnson:

Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
2/4You said yr wife's family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you'd have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You've been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now

I think if Johnson loses there is a strong chance of her (and maybe Rees-Mogg) going wild tonight in attacking every possible other leader

Edit: A journalist is tracking and by lunch Johnson's had 82 public declarations of support which is under a quarter of the parliamentary party. Not great given the whips will have been pushing this and for a sitting PM.

Edit: And the contrast with Theresa May - by 12.30 on her vote of no confidence she had the backing of 156 MPs which was over half the party so enough for her to be safe. Far less clear for Johnson now.

[Sheilbh]

Lots of reporters saying they're being told by MPs who were on the fence that they're now voting against Johnson because they found Dorries' tweets "instructive" and they think it was sanctioned by Number 10

[Gups]

Agree on the bad for the country point, but I think it gets to the point that I don't think the issue is necessarily Johnson. I think he has to go but I don't think all of the issues the Tories have are because of him. I think the party doesn't have a vision, is fairly split and has an incoherent coalition of "lower taxes" and "leveling up". I don't think that goes away without Johnson - and arguably Johnson with his cakeism was maybe the person who could hold it all together and those issues will get worse without him.

I think you are underestimating just how bad a PM Johnson is. He's lazy and icnompetent and appoints very poor ministers. I agree that there is a long term issue for the Tory party as a whole in holding red wall seats as well as its traditional strongholds but plainly BJ is not able to hold on to either of those constinuencies together as will be ambly demonstrated by the forthcoming bye-elections.

[Sheilbh]

I think you are underestimating just how bad a PM Johnson is. He's lazy and icnompetent and appoints very poor ministers. I agree that there is a long term issue for the Tory party as a whole in holding red wall seats as well as its traditional strongholds but plainly BJ is not able to hold on to either of those constinuencies together as will be ambly demonstrated by the forthcoming bye-elections.

I think that's fair - almost any other leader would work harder and appoint more competent ministers rather than trying to appoint a cabinet with no possible successors. But I don't think it's just a long-term electoral challenge as it gets to the heart of why the government has wasted an 80 seat majority. Part of that is Johnson's personal failures - part of it is that by having Johnson as leader I think they tried not to choose. He was a cakeist. Any successor will involve choosing what their direction is, also I think inflation and economic problems are going to force choices on governments that the Tory party have deferred under Johnson. I think that's going to be a challenge with their MPs whoever is in charge (a bit like with Brown, I think). I could be wrong and they might pull off a Major or first year of Brown style honeymoon, but I suspect whoever they pick will just fail more competently.

Separately I think we're up to about 120 MPs publicly supporting Johnson so they're not exactly flooding in with endorsements.

Separately Conservative Home's panel of Tory party members had 55% think that MPs should remove Johnson - the Remoaner plot thickens. The other snap polls of voters shows - as has been the case since January that about 60% think he should go 25% want him to hang on (and only 55% of Tory voters want him to stay as PM).

[Zanza]

I predict Johnson wins with 52% to 48% and nothing is actually resolved. 

[Josquius]

I predict Johnson wins with 52% to 48% and nothing is actually resolved. 

If brexit is any indicator then a win of 52-48 will result in all MPs who make up that 48 being summarily hung, drawn, and quartered and their entire family subjected to damnatio memoriae.

[Zanza]

By the way, the arch-idiot of Brexit has a new column out:

[Sheilbh]

Wasn't Hannan always for soft Brexit? Switzerland/EFTA first and if not EEA - he was very much on the liberal Leave end of the Brexit debate and not focused on immigration. So it doesn't seem like a shift from him, it's the same argument he's been making for years.

[Zanza]

He was always in the "have your cake and eat it" faction, which is where the Tories are likely headed. The Brexit they got is not the one they want and May, Johnson and the EU are to blame. If only someone had done it right...


PS: This one never gets old: https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/

[Zanza]

By the way, here is his column: https://archive.ph/2022.06.05-074005/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/04/should-have-stayed-single-market-rejoining-now-would-madness/

The argument is that May failed to go for a soft Brexit, Johnson failed to realize the supposed Brexit benefits from complete liberty from EU regulations. Britain could be a libertarian paradise if only politicians had followed Hannan's sage advice.