Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Latest in Britain needing to realise it's not America - schools in the UK having shooting drills despite not having a school shooting in 25 years (and having very strict gun laws)
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/giving-children-in-the-uk-school-shooting-drills-is-a-foolish-and-dangerous-idea-1660796

Strikes me as a very weird idea especially - as he notes - the evidence is that kids find these drills stressful and traumatic.

But especially because they've been introduced as school shootings have become, sadly, so much more common in the US (27 already this year). I was at a small Scottish primary school when Dunblane happened and it was really traumatic - I remember teachers crying - but at that point we didn't have any shooting drills. It feels strange that kids are having to do them now not in the immediate aftermath of that tragedy here.

[Tamas]

  Shooting drills are a thing here? i think learning how to dodge knife attacks would be far more appropriate.

Maybe in a few decades people will look back and realise EU membership was the last thing preventing the UK to be swallowed up as a US territory. The cultural/political influence seems overwhelming.

[Sheilbh]

Johnson is doing a Mumsnet Q&A. First question and, apparently, representative of the questions their members wanted asked: "Why should we believe anything you say when it has been proven you are a habitual liar?"

It seems like it's going downhill from there.

Edit: The clip:
https://twitter.com/alexofbrown/status/1531969453306654721?s=21&t=D21KTMI-c0JzEgrjKk-vqA

[celedhring]

Shooting drills are a thing here? i think learning how to dodge knife attacks would be far more appropriate.

Last school rampage attempt I can remember in Spain the attacker used a crossbow.

He managed to kill a teacher and was apprehended while reloading.

[garbon]

Shooting drills are a thing here? i think learning how to dodge knife attacks would be far more appropriate.

Maybe in a few decades people will look back and realise EU membership was the last thing preventing the UK to be swallowed up as a US territory. The cultural/political influence seems overwhelming.

Feels like the columnist just wanting to have a moan. Googling shooting drills uk just gives that column.

I did look up lockdown drills (which could cover more things than shooting) and found this from 5 years back with a teaching union asking for them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-40645215

[Sheilbh]

Inspired by Larch - and followed - the British version:
https://twitter.com/PoliticsMoments

[Sheilbh]

"Really quite a lot of booing - wow" at Johnson arriving for the Jubilee service at St Paul's:
https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1532660093489119233?s=20&t=BomYQ2pD9KwYIj31bUYayA

Edit: And being booed on the way out as well:
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1532727413632864261?s=20&t=_-xadm53R9v_tmBHFBzihg

I'm sure that the people in the crowd aren't all wildly Tory but I feel like it's probably a bad sign for a  Conservative Prime Minister if he's being booed by a crowd of flag waving royalists at a service of thanksgiving for the Queen

[Threviel]

At my kids pre-school they have had drills for what to do in a dangerous situation (run inside, lock doors, hide) which seem like a light version of shooter drills. But Sweden has had a few situations with violence in schools, my local high school even had a guy running around with an axe and molotov cocktails trying to kill people.

[Sheilbh]

Meanwhile for either next week or after the by elections:

Noa Hoffman
@hoffman_noa
Tory leadership manoeuvres latest:  leadership candidates and their teams have been asking Tory staffers to "remain on standby" over the next few weeks and months. Told not to book holidays etc

Apparently Number 10 have also got a list of "wavering" MPs who'll be getting private meetings with Johnson and Dowden to try and convince them not to submit their letter/vote no confidence. The list they are briefing includes a lot of MPs I would very strongly expect are definitely in the "no confidence" camp, including Theresa May

Marie Le Conte
@youngvulgarian
times are tough for everyone right now but I would be willing to spend every dime currently to my name in order to sit in the room where Boris Johnson, yes, that one, tries to convince Theresa May, yes, that one, to be loyal to him as PM

[Sheilbh]

From the Times - starting to suspect he might actually lose a no confidence vote, not just win badly. The comments from a minister at the end are particularly striking and, I suspect, widely shared (outside of the people who'd never be a minister under any other PM like Dorries or Rees-Mogg):

Boris Johnson is sleepwalking into an 'inevitable' vote of no confidence
The prime minister will step into the unknown on Monday as a return to business as usual looks increasingly unlikely
Steven Swinford, Political Editor |
Henry Zeffman, Associate Political Editor |
George Grylls, Political Reporter
Saturday June 04 2022, 12.01am, The Times

It was, the prime minister believed, a return to business as usual. On Monday Boris Johnson and his most senior aides gathered in No 10 for their 8am meeting, tucking into bacon rolls as they discussed how to move on from the Downing Street parties scandal.

Johnson, allies said, felt liberated with Sue Gray's report on the scandal finally behind him and believed that a £21 billion package to tackle the cost of living would answer the concerns of many backbenchers.

The prime minister's hopes of a respite, however, were short-lived. Over the next three days a further seven Tory MPs went public with criticism of Johnson, bringing the total number to 48.

The Bishop of Buckingham joined calls for Johnson to resign, saying he "obviously" lied over lockdown parties.

The Rt Rev Dr Alan Wilson told Times Radio: "It's not the parties actually. It's the lying. I think that's the problem... I think it's very difficult to trust a liar."

When parliament returns from recess and the Platinum Jubilee celebrations on Monday, Johnson will be stepping into the unknown, with whips privately admitting they have no idea how close the prime minister is to the 54-letter threshold needed to trigger a vote in his leadership.

As Guto Harri, the prime minister's director of communications put it after attending an open-air production of Julius Caesar last week. "Wonderful change from politics," he said on Facebook. "Or was it?!" Some cabinet ministers have been alarmed by what they view as complacency in Downing Street. In the wake of the Gray report on Wednesday and Rishi Sunak's spending package on Thursday last week the Downing Street grid appeared to be almost empty. The main offering after a week in which the prime minister had faced down yet another existential crisis was a consultation on a return of imperial measurements.

Senior figures in the campaign to save Johnson — described as Operation Save Big Dog — were also on holiday for much of last week.

"The vote is going to happen," a government aide said. "There is an awful sense of inevitability about it all. It's like a pack of Pringles: once you pop, you can't stop. The lack of an Operation Save Big Dog has been a problem." There was particular concern in No 10 after Dame Andrea Leadsom — until this week considered a loyalist — accused the prime minister of "unacceptable failings of leadership".

Several public interventions later by Johnson's critics and his praetorian guard finally sprang into action. Priti Patel, the home secretary, Nadine Dorries, the culture secretary, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Brexit opportunities minister, were all despatched to defend the prime minister.

Johnson's allies are withering — privately and publicly — about attempts to remove the prime minister. "I'm getting quite f***ing angry with colleagues who are frothing at the mouth . . . in the way that the public is not," one cabinet minister said.

"Whenever this election is we need someone who appeals to first-time voters in red wall, liberal voters in the south and metropolitan voters in London. If you think Jeremy Hunt is that person then good luck to you." Some ministers believe that Johnson is the victim of retribution from Theresa May's allies as they defended the government's relatively passive approach this week.

"I think the loyalists can only work with the people who are there to be worked with," the minister said. "The May-ite wing was always basically just waiting for its chance. It was total madness to give half of them back the whip when we saw their true colours in autumn 2019, working with the opposition to try to bring down their own government on its central policy." Dorries claimed that Johnson was the victim of a coordinated plot from or two malcontents. Whips believe that the letters are being deliberately "drip-fed" to cause maximum damage to the prime minister.

The rebels, however, deny this. They say that what should concern Johnson the most is the fact that there is no spreadsheet and no organisation. The rebels are from all intakes and all sides of the parties, from pro-Europeans in the south to ardent Brexiteers in red wall seats in the north.

Outside St Paul's in London yesterday, Johnson was given a visceral reminder that the parties scandal is not behind him as he arrived for the service of thanksgiving to mark the Queen's Platinum Jubilee.

As he and his wife climbed the steps he was met with a chorus of boos and jeers, with more muted clapping and cheering from the crowd in riposte. Johnson continues to divide opinion, both within his party and without.

Many ministers believe that Mark Harper, a former chief whip and prominent critic of Johnson, is behind the plans for a coup — something he denies as "nonsense". A friend said: "[The prime minister's] continuing poor conduct, which shows no sign of ending, is putting all Conservative MPs in a very difficult place."

One rebel who has not declared their intentions yet said that Johnson's lack of genuine contrition grated the most. "He came in [to a meeting with Tory MPs] with his usual . . . hangdog eyes, pretending to be sad," they said. "We all know he doesn't feel pain. But he wasn't even that subtle. It was a complete act.

"We are going to lose the next election. Of course we are. Nobody can stay in power for ever. The only question is whether you swap him out for somebody else who is a bit of an unknown, go through that blood-letting, and you're as likely or possibly more likely to lose. But you can lose with a bit of honour if you choose the right person?"

Johnson is said to be sanguine about the prospect of a confidence vote, not least because there is little he can directly do about it. He has been calling some rebels at the behest of whips but has spent much of the week working on two interventions — a speech on extending the right to buy and building more homes, and a joint speech with Sunak on the economy the following week.

He has told colleagues that a confidence vote would be pointless, especially without an obvious successor. "There's no alternative strategy, no alternative plan, no big ideological divide," an ally said.

Johnson is also said to be planning a charm offensive with 64 Tory rebels in an effort to avoid a no-confidence vote. According to The Daily Telegraph the list features grandees including Theresa May, Tom Tugendhat and Julian Smith along with Guy Opperman, a serving minister.

Johnson's opponents, however, are galvanising. Hunt, the former health secretary, has conducted a series of high-profile interviews in which he has said he would have handled the pandemic differently. He has been clear he will not rule out a leadership challenge.

Tom Tugendhat, the chairman of the foreign affairs select committee, had distanced himself from comments by Tobias Ellwood, the chairman of the defence select committee, suggesting Britain should rejoin the single market. "Let's plan for the future and stop looking back," he said. "This decision is made."

Within government Penny Mordaunt, a trade minister, has the support of a number of Tory rebels, particularly among Scottish conservatives. Friends have insisted she is loyal to the prime minister. Liz Truss, the foreign secretary and Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, are seen as potential rivals.

Even Sunak — seen by some as a busted flush after a storm over his wife's non-domiciled tax status — is still fancied by some. "I think Rishi is far from over," a cabinet minister said. "He's still a credible force, I don't think the public worry too much about whether he's got a rich wife or not." The timing of a potential confidence vote is increasingly occupying Tory rebels and ministers alike. Some of Johnson's critics believe that they should wait until after June 23, when two critical by-elections will be held on the same day, to ensure maximum damage.

Should the prime minister see off a confidence vote he is granted immunity from another challenge for a year, making it almost inevitable that he would lead the Tories in the next election unless he stands down of his own volition.

The privileges committee — a cross-party body looking into whether Johnson misled the Commons over Downing Street parties — is not reporting until later in the year. It could lead to yet more revelations, including over Whatsapp messages sent by Carrie Johnson, the prime minister's wife, that appear to allude to a new potentially illegal gathering in the prime minister's flat.

Sir Robert Syms, a Tory MP who has been critical of Johnson, has said: "If you write a letter have a ballot and he wins and then the privileges committee finds something that is damning we're stuck with him for a year," he said.

Johnson is planning to "plough on" regardless of the margin of victory — whether by 10 votes or 100 votes.

But even if he wins, he will be damaged. "I think he's f***ed," one government source said. "He'll be paralysed, people will effectively go on strike. There's some pretty contentious stuff coming down the line and won't be able to get anything through. It's grim." Johnson is assuming he will have the support of the bulk of the payroll vote — around 140 ministers, whips and government aides. The ballot, however, is secret which has left some ministers struggling with their consciences.

"I can live with sending out emails where I contort myself into evermore elaborate positions saying why I don't think this is a resigning matter, because that's politics - your integrity is chipped away marginally for the greater good," one minister said.

"But if those letters do go in, I have no choice but to make a decision.

"But I just don't know if I can vote confidence in him. I haven't had any confidence in him for a long time, but I never thought we'd get to a confidence vote.

"And then there's whether I can lie in public and I say I voted confidence. I don't know whether I can. There's others on the payroll who feel the same, they are just more reconciled to lying about it."

The wider point is just how personally unpopular Johnson is across all age groups and all income groups which means he now has the same problem as Corbyn - in polls popular policies become unpopular when people are told they're Johnson's. And there's no discernible boost in the polls following the extra cost of living measures which should have had some impact.

I think the Tories are learning - as Labour did with Brown, Miliband and Corbyn - that it doesn't matter what you do or what policies you have if, for whatever reason, most voters have decided they hate your leader.

[Sheilbh]

Constituency polls always need be handled with care - but this ahead of the Wakefield by election is not great for the Tories


If that's borne it's about the results the Tories got in 1997/2001

It's probably going to be taken as a result from the red wall - it stayed Labour through 2015 and 2017, but voted over 60% for Leave. But once the public turns - and according to that pollster over 50% of the Labour switchers are switching because of Johnson personally.

Edit: And it does roughly match the local election results, which Labour won by 23 points.

[Josquius]

Greens getting 8 is pretty good too considering it's hardly a green sort of town. And again a pox on our lack of democracy.
Beating the lib dems even

I suppose to be fair in terms of local issues, the tories nominating a literal paedophile last time round can't have helped.

[Sheilbh]

Internal briefing note being circulated among Tory MPs over the weekend. Nothing new here but I think it just adds to the likelihood we'll get a vote of no confidence either this week (which he might win) or after the by elections (which I think would go very badly):

[Duque de Bragança]

https://www.independent.ie/news/platinum-jubilee-mishap-as-irish-tricolour-flag-shown-to-represent-parts-of-the-united-kingdom-41722694.html?fbclid=IwAR23XIEeANVl-Fr7JU6vn3T4hTpRAw2v9QsvDKNHkddRNXriSbPRWMfa4FU

Platinum Jubilee mishap as Irish tricolour flag shown to represent parts of the United Kingdom

Viewers spotted a blunder as the Platinum Jubilee celebrations drew to a close in the UK today, with the Irish tricolour flag used to represent Northern Ireland.

During the performances, a video montage of the UK's sporting achievements is played in the background while a spoken word artist performed on stage.

Different symbols and flags were shown to represent the four corners of the United Kingdom – but inadvertently, the orange, white and green flag of the Republic of Ireland was used in the video.

The video showed the flag of England, then the three lions of the England football squad. Next it showed a red dragon emblem representing Wales. Then it showed a woman waving an Irish tricolour, before cutting to a man bearing a Scottish flag.

Meanwhile an artist rapped: "From Andy to Emma, the best tennis skills, we mix disciplines like we're Jess Ennis-Hill, I guess when it's real is the day we win trophies."

"So we can wail 'til our throats are all croaky, but see those three lions, you know what they do to me, I see them standing for strength, love, and unity, same with the red dragon, shamrock, and thistle, white, black, and brown we unite at the whistle..."

Some viewers took to Twitter to point out the mishap, one user wrote: "Ummm....did they just show the Irish flag in this segment? #PlatinumJubilee"

While another wrote: "Showing the irish flag at the platinum jubilee : wow."

The celebrations saw performances from stars such as Elton John, Rod Stewart, Eurovision entry Sam Ryder, George Ezra, Andrea Bocelli and Diana Ross.

Members of the Royal family, including the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, Kate Middleton and Prince William, with their children Prince George, Princess Charlotte and Prince Louis, Prince Charles and the Duchess of Cornwall Camilla Parker Bowles, watched on in the audience and waved flags.

Some great organisation in the "British Isles".

[Sheilbh]

DUP are angry as ever:

DUP MP Gregory Campbell said: "It was unfortunate that in a very short video clip during the event when the four nations that make up the United Kingdom were visually represented by logos or flags that the Irish Tricolour was used instead of the Ulster banner.

"Hopefully those responsible will have realised their mistake and will ensure that in the event of any future occasion where the four countries of the UK are to be visually represented, more care is taken to ensure a mistake like this one is not repeated."

BBC have apologised and said it was a mistake and they'll edit the montage in the iPlayer version

Edit: Although the DUP have not considered this closed as apparently Ian Paisley Jr has written to the Director General wanting a more fulsome apology