Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Duque de Bragança]

Not sure if this anti-Marine poster (Mélenchon/submissive France-style?) will really help 
More likely to backfire, with Marine wearing a very islamist hijab (no hair visible).
That's the left, for those who don't follow.

"Let us not submit to a thinly-veiled extreme-right".  Remember, Islam means submission (to God/Allah in theory).

[Duque de Bragança]

Turnout so far looks like it's only a point or two below the same time in 2017, which is probably good for Macron.

Not so sure about that. Higher turnout would mean "Front Républicain-style" reaction.

One thought on normalisation of Le Pen is that I don't think I've seen Macron use the "Republican Front" style politics or rhetoric at all in this election. I'm not sure if that's a choice by him, or if it's a political constraint that it just wouldn't work any more or it's impossible for him? But it is striking that Le Pen and RN are treated as another party rather than a force that you rally all "Republican" politics against.

He tried but it did not work that well. He has done everything to use it for its own personal political gain so hardly surprising.

[Sheilbh]

Not so sure about that. Higher turnout would mean "Front Républicain-style" reaction.

For sure - but it's only a point or two down.

[Duque de Bragança]

Not so sure about that. Higher turnout would mean "Front Républicain-style" reaction.

For sure - but it's only a point or two down.

2.5 %, as reported now.

I see the US embassy has released two advisory travels, situation is getting serious. 
Reported by French media, of course.

https://fr.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/security-and-travel-information/

Demonstration and Security Alert – U.S. Embassy Paris, France (April 22, 2022)
Home | News & Events | Demonstration and Security Alert – U.S. Embassy Paris, France (April 22, 2022)

Event:  The final round of the French Presidential Elections will be held this weekend.  On Sunday April 24, authorities expect spontaneous gatherings in cities throughout France after 8pm.  These could potentially turn violent.  Please pay attention to your local news regarding possible violence in your area and avoid protest areas.

Additionally, smaller demonstrations (see below) are expected throughout the country, with potential for risk of riots/clashes with the police.  U.S. government employees have been advised to avoid the locations of protests.

Saturday, April 23

Strasbourg
What:              Antifa
Where:            Place de la Gare
When:             2:30pm

Lyon
What:              Against Macron
Where:            Place Bellecour
When:             2:00pm

Bordeaux
What:              Students – Call to protest by Federation Syndicale Etudiante
Where:            Place de la Bourse
When:             2:00pm

Sunday, April 24

Paris
What:              Student Protests
Where:            Chatelet and Pantheon
When:             8:00 pm

Rennes
What:             Election Protests
Where:           Rennes at Place St Anne
When:            8:00pm

Actions to Take:

Avoid the areas of the demonstrations
Exercise caution if in the vicinity of large gatherings or protests
Monitor local media for updates
Be prepared for disruptions to public transportation in areas of the protests
Be aware of your surroundings
Keep a low profile

Travel Advisory
April 19, 2022

Exercise increased caution in France due to terrorism and civil unrest.

Country Summary: Terrorist groups continue plotting possible attacks in France. Terrorists may attack with little or no warning, targeting tourist locations, transportation hubs, markets/shopping malls, local government facilities, hotels, clubs, restaurants, places of worship, parks, major sporting and cultural events, educational institutions, airports, and other public areas.

Demonstrations in Paris and other major cities continue in France and are expected to continue in the coming weeks. Property damage, including looting and arson, in populated tourist areas has occurred with reckless disregard for public safety. Police have responded with water cannons, rubber bullets, and tear gas. The U.S. Embassy is advising official U.S. government travelers to avoid travel to Paris and other major cities in France on the weekends.

Read the country information page for additional information on travel to France.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has determined France has a high level of COVID-19.  Visit the CDC page for the latest Travel Health Information related to your travel.

[Duque de Bragança]

Early polls, not official, say Macron would win, unsurprisingly, by 55/58 %.

https://www.lalibre.be/international/europe/elections-france/2022/04/24/emmanuel-macron-en-tete-de-la-presidentielle-2022-selon-trois-sondages-DAAZ2LFS25DDXOBHAZAH5NKTRE/

Publié le 24-04-2022 à 18h22 - Mis à jour le 24-04-2022 à 18h26

Selon quatre enquêtes d'opinion réalisées ce dimanche par quatre instituts de sondage réputés en France, Emmanuel Macron est crédité entre 55% à 58 des voix, alors queMarine Le Penrecueillerait entre 42 et 45% des suffrages, a appris LN24. Ces résultats proviennent de sondages réalisés sur Internet auprès de citoyens ayant déjà été voter jusqu'à 17h.

Attention, un sondage n'est pas une projection sur base de résultats réels, mais une enquête d'opinion réalisée auprès d'un panel représentatif. Les résultats que nous vous présentons vont encore évoluer et se peaufiner petit à petit.

Nous savons de bonne source que ces sondages circulent également dans les rédactions françaises et dans les QG de campagne des deux candidats.

La Libre Belgique

[Josquius]

https://twitter.com/renaldinhos/status/1516067712333754373

David Mosquera
@renaldinhos
Michael Scott as Emmanuel Macron: a thread

I think this has been a good election for memes. My favourite - but I love a 36 plot political compass - was the Macron political compass

This seems very confused with the placement of some. And he seems confused too 😂

[Duque de Bragança]

Semi-official Macron 58% vs 42 % for Marine.

Official figures later this night.

[Sheilbh]

There we go - first President re-elected since 2002.

Interested to see what Macron does with a second term - particularly on Europe now he's the elder statesman/de facto leader. And what he does with preparing the political system for a post-Macron era

[Josquius]

Any chance he could reform the system to stop the far right managing to come so close to a win from a minority?

[Duque de Bragança]

Any chance he could reform the system to stop the far right managing to come so close to a win from a minority?

 

Come on, he has to leave a chance to his successor.

[Sheilbh]

Any chance he could reform the system to stop the far right managing to come so close to a win from a minority?

Isn't that already the French system?

First round of all candidates with the top two going to a second round (normally about 25% in round one will get you there), then it's a run-off. Popular vote, no electoral college or anything like that whoever wins over 50% of the vote wins.

Of course like all directly elected presidential systems - especially when the president is powerful - it's like a referendum every 4-5 years forcing a binary choice on voters. But the French is not winning from a minority like happens in the US, you need to win the popular vote.

[Razgovory]

Priest and nun stabbed today in Nice, but not islamist-motivated it seems.

I'm sorry.  Today must be hard on you.

[viper37]

On Sunday April 24, authorities expect spontaneous gatherings in cities throughout France after 8pm.  These could potentially turn violent.

So, usual Sunday for France.

[Duque de Bragança]

On Sunday April 24, authorities expect spontaneous gatherings in cities throughout France after 8pm.  These could potentially turn violent.

So, usual Sunday for France.

Well, there's no school tomorrow (Spring/Easter Holidays), so yes more time for trouble by the usual suspects. 

[Sheilbh]

I always love TV news countdowns to elections from different countries - South Korea and Taiwan have some particularly strong entries. There's the famous 1981 French one where they used a big computer screen with the image unfurling line by line - unfortunately because Mitterand and Giscard d'Estaing were both bald it just made the suspense go on for another minute or two

But this is very good:
https://twitter.com/Florian_set/status/1518335236664397827?s=20&t=79DsaE2swUUmFiaWIovzxg