Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Josquius]

Funny to see fascists throwing a fit. Saw one being interviewed saying they were very angry and shame on everyone who voted macron 😂

Really hope it doesn't lead to anyone getting hurt though.

French elections don't normally take place on holidays right?

Isn't that already the French system?

First round of all candidates with the top two going to a second round (normally about 25% in round one will get you there), then it's a run-off. Popular vote, no electoral college or anything like that whoever wins over 50% of the vote wins.

Of course like all directly elected presidential systems - especially when the president is powerful - it's like a referendum every 4-5 years forcing a binary choice on voters. But the French is not winning from a minority like happens in the US, you need to win the popular vote.

It's more democratic than the US, but still broken.
I wonder whether an AV ranking sort of setup could improve things. Otherwise not too many ideas when the system of electing a supreme leader itself is quite flawed.

[Josquius]

Checking the full results they make for better reading than Le Pen pretends.

Macron - 38.52%   
Le Pen- 27.28%   
Abstention - 28.01%
Blank vote - 4.57%   
Null vote - 1.62%

Over 70% is a really high turn out for all the talk of it being low.

[Duque de Bragança]

Checking the full results they make for better reading than Le Pen pretends.

Macron - 38.52%   
Le Pen- 27.28%   
Abstention - 28.01%
Blank vote - 4.57%   
Null vote - 1.62%

Over 70% is a really high turn out for all the talk of it being low.

Not for the run-off a presidential election. It's the highest abstention percentage since 1969 when communists abstained massively, and yes back then the PCF was a huge party.
Mélenchon even claimed Macron was the worst elected president ever but that's way more contentious.

[Sheilbh]

It's more democratic than the US, but still broken.
I wonder whether an AV ranking sort of setup could improve things. Otherwise not too many ideas when the system of electing a supreme leader itself is quite flawed.

I'm not sure it makes too much difference though. Zemmour and Le Pen got about 30% together, the hard left collectively got about 27-30% and then Macron plus other mainstream parties" have about 40%. I think even with an AV you'd still probably end up with a run-off between Le Pen and Macron.

If anything in the current system Melenchon came within 400,000 votes of the second round. Trots are going to Trot so those two micro-parties would never switch early, I think the PS and the Greens are more ideologically in sync with Macron than Melenchon - but Roussel and the Communists got about 800,000 votes and are broadly sympathetic to Melenchon. My understanding - as ever with the left - is that there's some ideological disagreements but there's also a fear that the PCF don't really want the left to consolidate too much around Melenchon. They want to keep the very red flag flying separately.

Over 70% is a really high turn out for all the talk of it being low.

In a UK context, sure. But for France it's very low turnout for a presidential election.

Breakdown of motivation is interesting:
25% for Le Pen
17% against Macron
30% for Macron
28% against Le Pen

And I'm seeing lots of the left having a go at centrists (and there are reasons to criticise Macron). But given that about 60% of Melenchon's vote either stayed at home or voted for Le Pen I'm not sure they can really criticise anyone for not doing enough:

[Josquius]

Checking the full results they make for better reading than Le Pen pretends.

Macron - 38.52%   
Le Pen- 27.28%   
Abstention - 28.01%
Blank vote - 4.57%   
Null vote - 1.62%

Over 70% is a really high turn out for all the talk of it being low.

Not for the run-off a presidential election. It's the highest abstention percentage sine 1969 when communists abstained massively, and yes back then the PCF was a huge party.
Mélenchon even claimed Macron was the worst elected president ever but that's way more contentious.

Sure. Which shows a lack of le pen toleration despite macron being the other choice.

I also wonder to what extent coming when it did, in the first post covid school holidays, helped.

[Duque de Bragança]

Checking the full results they make for better reading than Le Pen pretends.

Macron - 38.52%   
Le Pen- 27.28%   
Abstention - 28.01%
Blank vote - 4.57%   
Null vote - 1.62%

Over 70% is a really high turn out for all the talk of it being low.

Not for the run-off a presidential election. It's the highest abstention percentage sine 1969 when communists abstained massively, and yes back then the PCF was a huge party.
Mélenchon even claimed Macron was the worst elected president ever but that's way more contentious.

Sure. Which shows a lack of le pen toleration despite macron being the other choice.

I also wonder to what extent coming when it did, in the first post covid school holidays, helped.

French elections don't normally take place on holidays right?

Sunday is a holiday here. 
Presidential holidays happen during Spring/Easter Holidays, but not by design.
All 3 "school" zones were in holidays, however that has been regularly the case and proxy voting has been simplified and promoted.

[Josquius]

I hadn't heard of this before.
Interesting story. #Russians

BBC News - What are France's accusations over a mass grave found in Mali?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61257796

[Zanza]

[Sheilbh]

FI, PS and Greens doing a deal for the legislatives

Maybe the French left will start to unite for elections, so we'll be done from about 10 candidates of the left to just the normal constellation of left, Communists, Trots, other Trots

[Duque de Bragança]

FI, PS and Greens doing a deal for the legislatives

Maybe the French left will start to unite for elections, so we'll be done from about 10 candidates of the left to just the normal constellation of left, Communists, Trots, other Trots, crypto-Trots

Fixed!

I see the PT then POI party (third Trot candidate in 2007) splintered in 2015. 

[Sheilbh]

Slightly fascinating semantics response from the ongoing analysis of the Macron/Le Pen vote. Voters who say they are "in the centre" broke for Macron 87/13; voters who say they are "neither right nor left" went for Le Pen 53/47

[Josquius]

Slightly fascinating semantics response from the ongoing analysis of the Macron/Le Pen vote. Voters who say they are "in the centre" broke for Macron 87/13; voters who say they are "neither right nor left" went for Le Pen 53/47

I wouldn't say I'm so surprised. Again going off the UK (always a risk) I've definitely noticed "I'm no labour or tory", "they're all the same", and other claims to be "above" right and left is pretty typical of far right nut cases.

No idea how it translates in France.

Though that 13% of centrists are against macron is weird. I have to suspect semantic lies of the Musk variety again.

[celedhring]

Slightly fascinating semantics response from the ongoing analysis of the Macron/Le Pen vote. Voters who say they are "in the centre" broke for Macron 87/13; voters who say they are "neither right nor left" went for Le Pen 53/47

Over here "I'm neither right nor left" is usually an anti-establishment statement, and a far right leaning one at that. These results don't seem that surprising.

[Sheilbh]

Same in France, I think. Just an interesting example of how two very similar sentiments get wildly different results based on semantics and how you describe it to people/how they understand it.

[Duque de Bragança]

Macron claimed to be nor right, nor left, in the footsteps of Le Pen père, who added French after, however.