Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[celedhring]

How did the debate go? Most expert opinions I'm reading are kinda split on who won the debate, which I guess it's fine for Macron.

Macron has pulled ahead a little in the polls but I'm still sweating this.

[Josquius]

How did the debate go? Most expert opinions I'm reading are kinda split on who won the debate, which I guess it's fine for Macron.

Macron has pulled ahead a little in the polls but I'm still sweating this.

It does sound like it just entrenched pre-existing notions.
Macron apparently sounded arrogant with his pesky facts against Le Pen's ramblings.
Le Pen pulled a Trump and smirked every time Macron spoke before throwing out more nonsense; really giving a sense of wink wink, we all know this is bollocks but that's the fun of it, own teh libs.
Hopefully it could have swayed some anti-Macron folks into going with shit rather than suicidal?

[Admiral Yi]

Heard a survey result on NPR that 59% thought Macron won and 39% thought Le Pen won.

[Jacob]

Heard a survey result on NPR that 59% thought Macron won and 39% thought Le Pen won.

59% and 39% of whom? French people viewing the debate?

[Admiral Yi]

59% and 39% of whom? French people viewing the debate?

I assume.

[Habbaku]

Famous last words and all, but I am shocked that anyone is even remotely worried about it. Macron is going to win in a landslide.

[Sheilbh]

Famous last words and all, but I am shocked that anyone is even remotely worried about it. Macron is going to win in a landslide.

The polls are back to a 10-point gap 55-45, which is good. Less good than last time's 66-34 gap.

The worry is turn-out/rates of abstention from the Melenchon voters and others mainly on the left rather than direct transfers (though there'll be some). I'm surprised Macron hasn't made a gesture to the left this campaign - for example after two PMs of the right he could have said he'd appoint someone from the left.

How did the debate go? Most expert opinions I'm reading are kinda split on who won the debate, which I guess it's fine for Macron.

Macron has pulled ahead a little in the polls but I'm still sweating this.

From what I've read - vastly better than last time for Le Pen.

Macron was apparently good - he had details and facts and scored a hit on Putin as Le Pen's banker. But he also came across as arrogant and dismissive, which plays into all the reasons loads of French people really loath him.

Le Pen was better thant 2017 but still not great. She was better on the substantive stuff than last time but there was no special moment.

From what I've seen, Macron failed to re-toxify her, she failed to have a big break-out moment. So basically it's a holding pattern.

[Duque de Bragança]

Really depends on whom you ask. Media appreciation varies. Some people believe Macron was a tad aggressive. As for arrogant (suffisant in the other French meaning that's par for the course) if confirmed.

I suspect the debate won't change much anyways.

Did not watch it in its entirety (last one I watched was in 2007) since they have been a bore to sit through with less than gifted debated these past years so I can't really comment.
A debate with Zemmour or even Mélenchon would have been more entertaining I suspect.

[PJL]

Given the polling, I expect it's going to be closer than what they say. So 52-48 to Macron.

[Sheilbh]

Given the polling, I expect it's going to be closer than what they say. So 52-48 to Macron.

That'd be enough to set me on five years of anxiety given that he's term-limited, has wiped out both of the mainstream parties of centre right and left, might not have a real "party" to hand over and I'm not sure if he has a natural successor

Maybe Philippe? But that's a post-Sunday stress-out.

[Valmy]

Ok but if Macron wins this will be his last term...so what next? Are we going to have radical left wing nut vs radical right wing nut in 2027?

[Sheilbh]

https://twitter.com/renaldinhos/status/1516067712333754373

David Mosquera
@renaldinhos
Michael Scott as Emmanuel Macron: a thread

I think this has been a good election for memes. My favourite - but I love a 36 plot political compass - was the Macron political compass

[Duque de Bragança]

Ok but if Macron wins this will be his last term...so what next? Are we going to have radical left wing nut vs radical right wing nut in 2027?

Après moi, le déluge ! 

PS: nice recap for Macron, Sheilbh. 

[celedhring]

Ok but if Macron wins this will be his last term...so what next? Are we going to have radical left wing nut vs radical right wing nut in 2027?

I suppose Macron will eventually appoint a co-princeps. Not sure how that will work, though.

French politics are in a bit of a pickle.

[Sheilbh]

Ok but if Macron wins this will be his last term...so what next? Are we going to have radical left wing nut vs radical right wing nut in 2027?

I suppose Macron will eventually appoint a co-princeps. Not sure how that will work, though.

French politics are in a bit of a pickle.

Yeah I don't know about 2027 - assuming Macron wins (and he should - lead up to 12% now).

It doesn't seem to me to be impossible that you have a France Insoumise (though possibly not with Melenchon?) v RN Presidential election. On the other hand maybe the old parties with their infrastructure of activists, success in regional elections, presence in legislative elections (which may increase this year because I don't think voters necessarily want to give Macron a majority again) - maybe they can come roaring back if they find the right candidates, they have the infrastructure for it. Or maybe Macron is able to convert LREM into more of a proper party and find a candidate who can do about as well - winning around 25% of the vote in the first round.

He needs to win now, but what happens next is a concern