A very troubling article. :(
http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/21/taiwan-defects-china-opinions-columnists-asia-security.html
QuoteWill Taiwan Defect to China?
Gordon G. Chang, 05.22.09, 12:01 AM EDT
An outbreak of peace across the Strait could be dangerous.
pic
On Wednesday, Ma Ying-jeou marked his first anniversary as president of Taiwan by calling his initial year "fruitful." And he had just cause for doing so. His most notable accomplishment so far has been a marked improvement in relations between the island republic and China. "In one year, we have transformed the strait from a dangerous flashpoint to a conduit of peace and prosperity," he told reporters in Taipei.
Last month, Taipei and Beijing, which both claim to govern "China," entered into historic agreements covering financial cooperation, regularly scheduled flights and judicial and law enforcement ties. That's on top of deals signed in June 2008. All told, there have been nine pacts inked with Beijing during Ma's first year.
Moreover, there are other signs of reconciliation across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing dropped its objections to Taiwan participating this week in the World Health Assembly, the yearly gathering of World Health Organization members. And it appears the two sides will complete a wide-ranging Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement sometime in the coming months and maybe even a "peace agreement."
At first glance, the U.S. should be happy with the results of Ma's "diplomatic truce" with Beijing. Chen Shui-bian, Ma's charismatic predecessor, riled both Washington and Beijing with his independence-minded moves, thereby complicating America's relations with the Chinese. Ma has, with some deft moves, taken Taiwan off the list of the world's hotspots. Peace, in a very real sense, is breaking out across the Taiwan Strait.
So what's not to like about recent developments? Unfortunately, a lot. For one thing, Ma's administration has been able to make such fast progress in cross-strait relations by compromising his republic's sovereignty. For instance, the government in Taiwan is now participating in World Health Organization activities, when that institution describes the island as "China (Province of Taiwan)." It's a sign that Ma has made a critical concession to Beijing.
Ma says he has no intention of surrendering to the Chinese, often repeating his "Three Nos" policy of no independence, no unification and no war. Although it is unlikely he wants to reduce his status and become the governor of China's 34th province, there are elements in his Kuomintang party--led by former leader Lien Chan--that clearly want to join the so-called Motherland. From all indications, the telegenic Ma does not control his party and many of its hardline members tolerate him only because he is the Kuomintang's only politician who can win presidential elections.
Although he may not be seeking unification, Ma is pushing his country in that direction nonetheless. The agreements he has sponsored--and the ones he contemplates--will give Beijing economic leverage that will inevitably weaken resistance to Chinese rule. Tellingly, he has refused to submit the China agreements to ratification by the island's legislature. The failure to do so indicates contempt for democratic norms, especially because the pacts were negotiated not by the governments of Taiwan and China but by their ruling parties, and they were signed by nongovernmental organizations.
The failure to allow formal ratification is, unfortunately, just one sign of the erosion of democracy on the island. First and foremost, President Ma has engaged in what June Teufel Dreyer of the University of Miami has called an "across-the-board-purge-your-opponents effort," starting with former president Chen and continuing through the roster of the previous administration.
Moreover, Ma has been undermining democratic institutions by constricting the right to protest, intimidating the citizenry and pressuring the country's media. Some Taiwanese even fear that the Kuomintang will cancel the 2012 presidential election, and with each passing week that fear seems less like a partisan rant and more like a well-founded concern.
The ruling party is returning not only to its Chinese roots but its Leninist ones as well. Successive American administrations have worried that Beijing would try to alter Taiwan's political status without the consent of the Taiwanese. Up to now, no one thought that the Taipei government might do that to its own people instead.
The pro-China elements in the Kuomintang know that the Taiwanese would never willingly agree to join with Beijing in any type of political union. Although most polling on the island is suspect, the vast majority of surveys show that the percentages of the population considering themselves "Chinese" only, and those wanting to unify with China, are both in the single digits and dropping. So the only way diehard Mainlanders can make the island a part of China is for them to destroy Taiwan's democracy first.
Washington, however, is saying not a word about the worrisome developments. Yet that is a mistake for many reasons.
First, China's authoritarianism is on the march and Taiwan is an inspiration to free peoples everywhere.
Second, America's Asian policy is anchored on defending Japan. As a quick look at a map will reveal, the islands making up Taiwan protect the southern approaches to the Japanese archipelago. It would, therefore, be difficult for America to defend Japan if Taiwan became part of the People's Republic.
If the Pentagon is not able to protect Japan, South Korea would be surrounded and would surely fall into Beijing's lap as well. With its two formal alliances gone, the U.S. would be out of Asia. Taiwan is the key to keeping the U.S. in the game.
Third, ceding Taiwan would undoubtedly embolden a territorially hungry Beijing. China asserts sovereignty over, among other things, the continental shelves of Japan and five southeast Asian countries. Incredibly, Beijing appears to maintain that the entire South China Sea is an internal Chinese lake, thereby impinging on the right of free passage on, under and over international waters. Giving up Taiwan would only embolden China to press its claims with even more confidence and vigor--and it would bolster Beijing's weak legal positions by giving it Taipei's territorial rights.
Finally, losing Taiwan would send horrible messages to American allies, friends and foes in the region--and elsewhere. So we have a lot to lose if Beijing swallows Taiwan whole. That, unfortunately, is looking increasingly possible as the island begins its second year under Ma Ying-jeou.
:lol: Talk about hyperbole and misplaced fear mongering.
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on May 25, 2009, 09:29:29 AM
:lol: Talk about hyperbole and misplaced fear mongering.
Can you elaborate on that?
I think we can count on enlightened self-interest to keep this from happening. China is the greatest murder-machine ever conceived, and the Taiwanese leadership should know that no matter how they bow and scrape, there's no force in the universe that could keep them alive.
As for Japan, they're defended by atomics, not Taiwan.
if they wanna go, let them go. it's called self determination.
Quote from: saskganesh on May 25, 2009, 10:00:23 AM
if they wanna go, let them go. it's called self determination.
I think we've established over the last 90s years that self-determination is a terrible idea.
This author seems a bit hysterical.
QuoteGordon G. Chang is a lawyer and author, best known for his book The Coming Collapse of China (2001) in which he argued that the hidden non-performing loans of the "Big Four" Chinese State banks would likely bring down China's financial system and its communist government and China would collapse in 2006.
The terrible irony is that the non-performing loans of poor people brought down the West.
Quote from: saskganesh on May 25, 2009, 10:00:23 AM
if they wanna go, let them go. it's called self determination.
:yes: Look at how happy those Austrians are to join Germany, how can we say no?
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fb%2Fba%2FBundesarchiv_Bild_146-1972-028-14%2C_Anschluss_%25C3%2596sterreich.jpg&hash=608e261149672edd3e158ebd0686346a6533c396)
OMG in the unlikely event that it would actually happen the US would be horrifed to have gotten rid of a source of friction with China without having to pay the price of defeat.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 10:44:29 AM
Quote from: saskganesh on May 25, 2009, 10:00:23 AM
if they wanna go, let them go. it's called self determination.
:yes: Look at how happy those Austrians are to join German, how can we say no?
Well, the Versailles treaty enforced self determination where it was opportune (Poland, Czechoslovakia) and ignored it where it was inconvenient (there was a strong movement for joining Germany in German Austria after the war; then there were Sudeten, Danzig, ...). Who knows what would have happened if Wilson had pushed for self determination more forcefully.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 10:44:29 AM
Quote from: saskganesh on May 25, 2009, 10:00:23 AM
if they wanna go, let them go. it's called self determination.
:yes: Look at how happy those Austrians are to join German, how can we say no?
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fb%2Fba%2FBundesarchiv_Bild_146-1972-028-14%2C_Anschluss_%25C3%2596sterreich.jpg&hash=608e261149672edd3e158ebd0686346a6533c396)
and look how happy these East Germans are. I guess we should deny them.
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.freedomagenda.com%2Fimages%2F1989-11-09_People_freed_from_communist_East_Germany_for_first_time_in_40_years_as_the_Berlin_Wall_is_torn_down_November_11_1989.jpg&hash=4946cdf9a82d25b573afb2cd0c591aaaf9f0d11e)
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 10:44:29 AM(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fb%2Fba%2FBundesarchiv_Bild_146-1972-028-14%2C_Anschluss_%25C3%2596sterreich.jpg&hash=608e261149672edd3e158ebd0686346a6533c396)
Just give them a fair choice. :p
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F5%2F57%2FStimmzettel-Anschluss.jpg&hash=424640cb3315cfbec6feb613d45b2d4d826134f0)
Quote from: Zanza2 on May 25, 2009, 11:50:22 AM
Just give them a fair choice. :p
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F5%2F57%2FStimmzettel-Anhluss.jpg&hash=34eaa47e8d183f90b040cc1d2f8be9a9c62cd981)
[/quote
:lol:
Never seen that before. Wow....
That referendum was held *after* the Anschluss, btw. ;)
Quote from: saskganesh on May 25, 2009, 11:45:00 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 10:44:29 AM
Quote from: saskganesh on May 25, 2009, 10:00:23 AM
if they wanna go, let them go. it's called self determination.
:yes: Look at how happy those Austrians are to join German, how can we say no?
and look how happy these East Germans are. I guess we should deny them.
Hmm...
Austria joining Nazi Germany
Taiwan joining the PRC
East Germany joining West Germany
One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 12:22:27 PM
Quote from: saskganesh on May 25, 2009, 11:45:00 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 10:44:29 AM
Quote from: saskganesh on May 25, 2009, 10:00:23 AM
if they wanna go, let them go. it's called self determination.
:yes: Look at how happy those Austrians are to join German, how can we say no?
and look how happy these East Germans are. I guess we should deny them.
Hmm...
Austria joining Nazi Germany
Taiwan joining the PRC
East Germany joining West Germany
One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong.
The second involves Asians? :unsure:
Yeah, Germans are such turncoats. :P
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 12:22:27 PM
Hmm...
Austria joining Nazi Germany
Taiwan joining the PRC
East Germany joining West Germany
One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong.
A people divided by Cold War lines and a potential starting point of WW3 uniting after a half-century of violent tension and fears of conflict to recognize a shared heritage and destiny?
Yeah, I think I can point to the one that doesn't fit.
Where is our angle in stopping the Chinese from doing this? Taiwan is a country of 20 million Mandarin speakers. Sure its a Democracy, but I'm guessing that any kind of mainland Re-absorption of the island would include Hong Kong style autonomy.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 12:22:27 PM
Quote from: saskganesh on May 25, 2009, 11:45:00 AM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 10:44:29 AM
Quote from: saskganesh on May 25, 2009, 10:00:23 AM
if they wanna go, let them go. it's called self determination.
:yes: Look at how happy those Austrians are to join German, how can we say no?
and look how happy these East Germans are. I guess we should deny them.
Hmm...
Austria joining Nazi Germany
Taiwan joining the PRC
East Germany joining West Germany
One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong.
in fact, neither belongs. unless you are arguing that South Korea is Czechoslovakia and Japan is Poland.
Quote from: Queequeg on May 25, 2009, 12:38:57 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 12:22:27 PM
Hmm...
Austria joining Nazi Germany
Taiwan joining the PRC
East Germany joining West Germany
One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong.
A people divided by Cold War lines and a potential starting point of WW3 uniting after a half-century of violent tension and fears of conflict to recognize a shared heritage and destiny?
Yeah, I think I can point to the one that doesn't fit.
Where is our angle in stopping the Chinese from doing this? Taiwan is a country of 20 million Mandarin speakers. Sure its a Democracy, but I'm guessing that any kind of mainland Re-absorption of the island would include Hong Kong style autonomy.
The people don't want it. If the article is correct, it's a small minority that's conspiring to bring Taiwan under China's rule.
After reading the article, I have to say it is a little troubling that the KMT appears to be backsliding so much and that "anschluss" would happen without popular consent.
But that said, I think the defense of Taiwan is, long term, a prickly thing that I'm not totally sure is wise, as it is so close to the mainland and so...well..inherently Chinese. If we are destined to have some kind of Cold (or, God forbid, Hot) War with the PRC, I'd rather not have it be over Taiwan, where the PRC would have a lot of advantages.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 12:42:32 PM
Quote from: Queequeg on May 25, 2009, 12:38:57 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 12:22:27 PM
Hmm...
Austria joining Nazi Germany
Taiwan joining the PRC
East Germany joining West Germany
One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong.
A people divided by Cold War lines and a potential starting point of WW3 uniting after a half-century of violent tension and fears of conflict to recognize a shared heritage and destiny?
Yeah, I think I can point to the one that doesn't fit.
Where is our angle in stopping the Chinese from doing this? Taiwan is a country of 20 million Mandarin speakers. Sure its a Democracy, but I'm guessing that any kind of mainland Re-absorption of the island would include Hong Kong style autonomy.
The people don't want it. If the article is correct, it's a small minority that's conspiring to bring Taiwan under China's rule.
well then it's not self determination is it?
again, if they want it, let them go.
Quote from: Queequeg on May 25, 2009, 12:44:14 PM
After reading the article, I have to say it is a little troubling that the KMT appears to be backsliding so much and that "anschluss" would happen without popular consent.
I don't know that much about Taiwanese politics, but the article in general seems so over-stated that its assertion that such an "anschluss" might happen seems highly suspect.
Quote from: The Brain on May 25, 2009, 11:21:43 AM
OMG in the unlikely event that it would actually happen the US would be horrifed to have gotten rid of a source of friction with China without having to pay the price of defeat.
A very interesting theory. I should have thought of it.
What's wrong with a real war the PRC?
QuoteThe opposition barks for want of bite
It's all right Ma, if you can't please them
EVER since Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan's president, took office a year ago, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which supports formal independence from China, has harangued his China-friendly policies. On May 17th party supporters vented their anger on the streets. Demonstrators waved green flags calling Mr Ma a traitor, as they flooded the square in front of the presidential office in Taipei. The DPP claimed 600,000 took part, though the police estimated a mere 76,000. Another rally swamped Kaohsiung in the south. Later that night thousands joined a 24-hour sit-in in Taipei.
Street protests are about all the DPP can do. Mr Ma and his Nationalist Party, the Kuomintang (KMT), have hugely eased the tensions with the mainland that marked the presidency of the DPP's Chen Shui-bian from 2000 to 2008, signing a series of agreements liberalising commercial ties. The DPP is out in the cold. It won 42% of the vote in parliamentary elections last year but holds only 27 of the 112 seats in the legislature, compared with 80 for the KMT. The DPP complains that the government is ignoring parliamentary scrutiny, negotiating with China in secret, and that Taiwan's democracy is deteriorating. Another target of the rallies was proposed new legislation to give the police greater powers to control demonstrations.
Joseph Wu, a moderate and the former DPP government's representative in America, says that if the KMT cannot find a way of co-operating with the DPP the party is bound to become more radical. Already hardliners and moderates are starting to unite in calling for the immediate release of Mr Chen, who has been in prison for six months for alleged corruption, without yet being found guilty, and who this month has faced new charges. DPP moderates used to distance themselves from Mr Chen's corrupt image.
In a fiery speech to the crowd at the end of the sit-in in Taipei, Tsai Ing-wen, the DPP's chairwoman, said the party's next move would be to organise a referendum on Mr Ma's vague plan for a free-trade agreement with China. Mr Ma insists this will help Taiwan weather the impact of China's free-trade agreements with South-East Asian countries, which take effect next year. But the DPP fears political concessions will be made.
The turnout at the rallies has shown that the DPP and its allies are still a force to be reckoned with. But street protests may alienate middle-of-the-road voters and business. Polls show that, though the KMT's popularity has dwindled with the financial crisis, the DPP has not benefited.
Mr Ma's China policies, moreover, have popular aspects. The stockmarket has been doing well, buoyed by the agreements with China. And on May 18th, for the first time in 38 years, Taiwan's health minister took a seat as an observer in the World Health Assembly in Geneva. At a press conference this week, Mr Ma insisted that none of the nine agreements his government has reached with China compromised Taiwan's sovereignty, and that there will be no turning back.
Somehow I trust this article more. (http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13707720)
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:07:09 PM
What's wrong with a real war the PRC?
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsleazette.files.wordpress.com%2F2008%2F09%2Fivy_mike_-_mushroom_cloud.jpg&hash=84d5aee0e9cbcd7dda186bfaec3778ba4118b72c)
Quote from: Queequeg on May 25, 2009, 01:08:49 PM
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:07:09 PM
What's wrong with a real war the PRC?
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsleazette.files.wordpress.com%2F2008%2F09%2Fivy_mike_-_mushroom_cloud.jpg&hash=84d5aee0e9cbcd7dda186bfaec3778ba4118b72c)
And what's wrong with that?
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:07:09 PM
What's wrong with a real war the PRC?
Well for one, Canada would be on the wrong side. Don't think we haven't noticed how the Chinese have been buying up mines and stuff. You've already been subverted and we'd have to the living shit out of you. At least the traitorous western part.
Quote from: Razgovory on May 25, 2009, 01:19:36 PM
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:07:09 PM
What's wrong with a real war the PRC?
Well for one, Canada would be on the wrong side. Don't think we haven't noticed how the Chinese have been buying up mines and stuff. You've already been subverted and we'd have to the living shit out of you. At least the traitorous western part.
Do you actually think that America could defeat China in a war?
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:21:28 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on May 25, 2009, 01:19:36 PM
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:07:09 PM
What's wrong with a real war the PRC?
Well for one, Canada would be on the wrong side. Don't think we haven't noticed how the Chinese have been buying up mines and stuff. You've already been subverted and we'd have to the living shit out of you. At least the traitorous western part.
Do you actually think that America could defeat China in a war?
Could beat western Canada. And that's what's important. If war comes you'll end up a slave in the American run maple Syrup mines.
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:21:28 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on May 25, 2009, 01:19:36 PM
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:07:09 PM
What's wrong with a real war the PRC?
Well for one, Canada would be on the wrong side. Don't think we haven't noticed how the Chinese have been buying up mines and stuff. You've already been subverted and we'd have to the living shit out of you. At least the traitorous western part.
Do you actually think that America could defeat China in a war?
We shut down a few ports and there's a revolution in China fairly quickly, I'd think. It would mostly be naval, while we supply anti-PRC forces in South-East Asia and the non-Han Eastern provinces. The trouble is that the Chicoms would be liable to launch their birds well before they loose power.
Quote from: Queequeg on May 25, 2009, 02:22:15 PM
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:21:28 PM
Do you actually think that America could defeat China in a war?
We shut down a few ports and there's a revolution in China fairly quickly, I'd think. It would mostly be naval, while we supply anti-PRC forces in South-East Asia and the non-Han Eastern provinces. The trouble is that the Chicoms would be liable to launch their birds well before they loose power.
I think that scenario highly unlikely. The Chinese have shown themselves recently to be quite patriotic and nationalistic. In the unlikely event of a US-PRC war I imagine the populace would rush to support the Communist Party.
That's exactly what happened when Hitler invaded the USSR. Stalin's government was much worse than the current Communist rules of China, and had only been in power 20 years or so at that point. Yet the populace rallied behind Stalin.
Quote from: Queequeg on May 25, 2009, 02:22:15 PM
We shut down a few ports and there's a revolution in China fairly quickly, I'd think. It would mostly be naval, while we supply anti-PRC forces in South-East Asia and the non-Han Eastern provinces.
If only you threw in some time travel, it'd make a great Turtledove novel.
Quote from: Barrister on May 25, 2009, 02:55:31 PM
Quote from: Queequeg on May 25, 2009, 02:22:15 PM
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:21:28 PM
Do you actually think that America could defeat China in a war?
We shut down a few ports and there's a revolution in China fairly quickly, I'd think. It would mostly be naval, while we supply anti-PRC forces in South-East Asia and the non-Han Eastern provinces. The trouble is that the Chicoms would be liable to launch their birds well before they loose power.
I think that scenario highly unlikely. The Chinese have shown themselves recently to be quite patriotic and nationalistic. In the unlikely event of a US-PRC war I imagine the populace would rush to support the Communist Party.
That's exactly what happened when Hitler invaded the USSR. Stalin's government was much worse than the current Communist rules of China, and had only been in power 20 years or so at that point. Yet the populace rallied behind Stalin.
Not only that, but the Chinese are extremely adept at modern warfare when compared to the Americans.
Quote from: Barrister on May 25, 2009, 02:55:31 PM
I think that scenario highly unlikely. The Chinese have shown themselves recently to be quite patriotic and nationalistic. In the unlikely event of a US-PRC war I imagine the populace would rush to support the Communist Party.
That's exactly what happened when Hitler invaded the USSR. Stalin's government was much worse than the current Communist rules of China, and had only been in power 20 years or so at that point. Yet the populace rallied behind Stalin.
This is a fair criticism. That said, I think that the collapse of the Chinese economy with the blockade of Chinese ports would result in such instability that, in the long run, they would not be able to win a war against the democratic powers (presumably including India and Japan).
I don't think the Chinese navy is up to keeping their ports free from the Indian, Japanese, British and American fleets. And they aren't going to be able to do that anytime soon.
"Fairly quick" was hyperbole probably, but I think they'd have a lot of trouble in their own back yard without some kind of naval supremacy. Even then, I'm not totally sure how they would be able to change their entire economy from industry for export to military equipment, or where they'd get the food and raw materials they now import.
This is fairly moot though: I think the CPC is smart enough to avoid a war, and if it came to that it would probably go nuclear fairly quickly.
How can Taiwan defect TO China? I thought they defected FROM China in the first place.
Quote from: Martinus on May 25, 2009, 03:29:43 PM
How can Taiwan defect TO China? I thought they defected FROM China in the first place.
Not really. If anything, the Mainland "defected" to the Communists.
That's a really weird way to put it though; the Mainland was conquered by Communists is more accurate.
I defecated to China once. It was glorious.
Who lost Taiwan :(
Quote from: Queequeg on May 25, 2009, 03:28:10 PMchange their entire economy from industry for export to military equipment
They are already the biggest producer of steel and among the top producers of machinery such as vehicles.
And by the way the vast part of their industry is not for exports, but rather for domestic consumption. After all, a fifth of mankind lives there and they don't live on thin air.
Quote from: Zanza2 on May 25, 2009, 05:05:39 PM
They are already the biggest producer of steel and among the top producers of machinery such as vehicles.
And by the way the vast part of their industry is not for exports, but rather for domestic consumption. After all, a fifth of mankind lives there and they don't live on thin air.
Foodstuffs? The quickest way to have a revolution is to have cities full of poorly educated recent migrants from the countryside with high expectations to suddenly have no food.
Wow it would sure be terrible if another source of global discontent was solved without us having to do anything.
Quote from: Valmy on May 25, 2009, 05:08:29 PM
Wow it would sure be terrible if another source of global discontent was solved without us having to do anything.
:lol:
That was my first thought. Timmy reading this and screaming "OH MY GOD THIS ISN'T DONE BY US THIS IS TERRIBLE!"
Quote from: Barrister on May 25, 2009, 02:55:31 PM
Quote from: Queequeg on May 25, 2009, 02:22:15 PM
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:21:28 PM
Do you actually think that America could defeat China in a war?
We shut down a few ports and there's a revolution in China fairly quickly, I'd think. It would mostly be naval, while we supply anti-PRC forces in South-East Asia and the non-Han Eastern provinces. The trouble is that the Chicoms would be liable to launch their birds well before they loose power.
I think that scenario highly unlikely. The Chinese have shown themselves recently to be quite patriotic and nationalistic. In the unlikely event of a US-PRC war I imagine the populace would rush to support the Communist Party.
That's exactly what happened when Hitler invaded the USSR. Stalin's government was much worse than the current Communist rules of China, and had only been in power 20 years or so at that point. Yet the populace rallied behind Stalin.
One of the reasons was Hitler's genocidal policies. If he had acted in a more rational fashion Stalin would have had much more trouble.
Quote from: Valmy on May 25, 2009, 05:08:29 PM
Wow it would sure be terrible if another source of global discontent was solved without us having to do anything.
20 million people being betrayed into totalitarian slavery is solving a source of global discontent? I see it as one of the worst events to happen in decades.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 05:34:57 PM
One of the reasons was Hitler's genocidal policies. If he had acted in a more rational fashion Stalin would have had much more trouble.
Really disagree.
His genocidal policies weren't really known until later in the war - certainly not in '41 and not amongst the Russian peasantry.
Quote from: Barrister on May 25, 2009, 05:40:30 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 05:34:57 PM
One of the reasons was Hitler's genocidal policies. If he had acted in a more rational fashion Stalin would have had much more trouble.
Really disagree.
His genocidal policies weren't really known until later in the war - certainly not in '41 and not amongst the Russian peasantry.
Well I was thinking more about the Ukrainians than the Russians.
China has coal, but relies on imports for many other resources including oil. Blockade the narrow strait of Singapore and much of their military-industrial complex will grind to a halt as reserves of strategic resources deplete.
China knows this, of course - hence the Arakan-Kunming pipeline (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KD03Df03.html) and even the talks of a chinese-controlled canal through the Malay peninsula in Thailand.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 05:37:07 PM
Quote from: Valmy on May 25, 2009, 05:08:29 PM
Wow it would sure be terrible if another source of global discontent was solved without us having to do anything.
20 million people being betrayed into totalitarian slavery is solving a source of global discontent? I see it as one of the worst events to happen in decades.
:lmfao:
Totalitarian Slavery? That's a little harsh even for the Uyghurs and Tibetans, let alone the average Chinese citizen.
Please return defective products to the manufacturer.
Quote from: Queequeg on May 25, 2009, 05:07:59 PM
Foodstuffs? The quickest way to have a revolution is to have cities full of poorly educated recent migrants from the countryside with high expectations to suddenly have no food.
China is very largely food-self-sufficient. It imports meats, mostly.
Quote from: miglia on May 25, 2009, 05:56:16 PM
China has coal, but relies on imports for many other resources including oil. Blockade the narrow strait of Singapore and much of their military-industrial complex will grind to a halt as reserves of strategic resources deplete.
That would simply give them a timetable for the conquest of the Southern Resource Area. I think we have been down this path before.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 05:37:07 PM
20 million people being betrayed into totalitarian slavery is solving a source of global discontent? I see it as one of the worst events to happen in decades.
The population of China going from 1,320,000,000 to 1,340,000,000 is indeed the worst thing in history.
Hey they gave Hong Kong autonomy they would probably give Taiwan some sort of special deal.
Valmy, y do u h8 freed0m? :(
Quote from: miglia on May 25, 2009, 05:56:16 PMeven the talks of a chinese-controlled canal through the Malay peninsula in Thailand.
That could easily be blockaded too. I don't see the point.
It would make some sense for Taiwan to defect to China, now that China is turning itself into Taiwan.
Quote from: grumbler on May 25, 2009, 08:38:11 PM
Quote from: miglia on May 25, 2009, 05:56:16 PM
China has coal, but relies on imports for many other resources including oil. Blockade the narrow strait of Singapore and much of their military-industrial complex will grind to a halt as reserves of strategic resources deplete.
That would simply give them a timetable for the conquest of the Southern Resource Area. I think we have been down this path before.
What area are we talking about? I don't think Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia have a ton of oil, and do they even have refining capacity? A drawn out war across the vastness of Central Asia also has some very obvious downsides (lines of supply across the largest landmass in the world, native hostility, presumed Allied air superiority).
From a simply geo-strategic perspective I'm not convinced that China is more of a threat than Russia was. Russia was not just self sufficient in terms of resources, it had a fair sized chunk of the world's oil supply, and was very close to the Western sources of oil too. Can't say the same for China. Also think they are just, in general, far more vulnerable; the same coasts that have made Chinese economic growth so impressive the last little while could also be a hazard when carriers and, more likely, subs are stationed not far outside Shanghai, Hong Kong and Beijing. They could relocate inland (maybe like the KMT, to Chengdu or Shaanxi), but a lot of their industrial capacity is located on the coasts I think.
Quote from: Valmy on May 25, 2009, 08:51:08 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 05:37:07 PM
20 million people being betrayed into totalitarian slavery is solving a source of global discontent? I see it as one of the worst events to happen in decades.
The population of China going from 1,320,000,000 to 1,340,000,000 is indeed the worst thing in history.
Hey they gave Hong Kong autonomy they would probably give Taiwan some sort of special deal.
You show a callous disregard for the freedom of the individual.
Quote from: alfred russel on May 25, 2009, 09:12:58 PM
It would make some sense for Taiwan to defect to China, now that China is turning itself into Taiwan.
I was thinking something similar. There's actually a book out now that argues that the PRC has basically taken the KMT as a model (Leninist, centralized party trying to build up capitalism, after economic growth gradually liberalizing), IIRC it focuses on Chang Kai-shek.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 09:16:25 PM
You show a callous disregard for the freedom of the individual.
I think you are vastly overstating how awful a place the PRC is for Mandarins, and that your article's bias against the KMT is obvious.
Quote from: Queequeg on May 25, 2009, 09:21:37 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 09:16:25 PM
You show a callous disregard for the freedom of the individual.
I think you are vastly overstating how awful a place the PRC is for Mandarins, and that your article's bias against the KMT is obvious.
I think that Mono regularly proves how horrible a place it is. :contract:
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 09:25:06 PM
I think that Mono regularly proves how horrible a place it is. :contract:
Oh no! Hong Kong has a Kafkaesque bureaucracy! Its as bad as the Austro-Hungarian Empire, only without the aspirations in Bosnia!
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:21:28 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on May 25, 2009, 01:19:36 PM
Quote from: Neil on May 25, 2009, 01:07:09 PM
What's wrong with a real war the PRC?
Well for one, Canada would be on the wrong side. Don't think we haven't noticed how the Chinese have been buying up mines and stuff. You've already been subverted and we'd have to the living shit out of you. At least the traitorous western part.
Do you actually think that America could defeat China in a war?
Probably not, because our current so-called "leaders" lack the balls to just nuke them back to the Stone Age.
Quote from: dps on May 25, 2009, 09:32:35 PM
Probably not, because our current so-called "leaders" lack the balls to just nuke them back to the Stone Age.
We're sending Pelosi. That's pretty cruel and unusual.
Quote from: Martinus
How can Taiwan defect TO China? I thought they defected FROM China in the first place.
An important point to keep in mind is that neither the PRC nor Taiwan defected from nobody.
Taiwan *never* declared independence. It considers itself part of China (the legal part), and so does the PRC. They both belive they are part of the same nation, but differ as to the regime that should rule the country. If the KMT decides that it is time to give up its claim that it is the legitimate goverment, then the issue is solved.
So keep in mind that can never be an Anschluss, due to the simple fact that Taiwan is, and never stopped being, part of China. Even the US and the whole West always recognized this.
It's just ONE country solving internal issues, that's all. And in a peaceful way, too.
(besides, it is just logical for Taiwan to tie itself to the one great economy that is still growing, instead of keeping itself close to a bunch of insolvent 'free market' loonie regimes that can no longer buy its goods in a sustaineable way)
Quote from: Martim Silva on May 25, 2009, 09:41:51 PM
(besides, it is just logical for Taiwan to tie itself to the one great economy that is still growing, instead of keeping itself close to a bunch of insolvent 'free market' loonie regimes that can no longer buy its goods in a sustaineable way)
I knew you couldn't write a post without saying something moronic.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 09:16:25 PM
You show a callous disregard for the freedom of the individual.
No I show a great relief everytime a potential world conflict point has a possibility of being resolved.
Quote from: Valmy on May 25, 2009, 11:42:09 PM
Quote from: Martim Silva on May 25, 2009, 09:41:51 PM
(besides, it is just logical for Taiwan to tie itself to the one great economy that is still growing, instead of keeping itself close to a bunch of insolvent 'free market' loonie regimes that can no longer buy its goods in a sustaineable way)
I knew you couldn't write a post without saying something moronic.
You thought it was only the last paragraph that was moronic?
Quote from: Valmy on May 25, 2009, 11:42:09 PM
I knew you couldn't write a post without saying something moronic.
To be fair, he did hold out for a while.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 09:25:06 PMI think that Mono regularly proves how horrible a place it is. :contract:
:huh:
Mono's posts would be the same anywhere in the world.
Quote from: miglia on May 25, 2009, 05:56:16 PM
China knows this, of course - hence the Arakan-Kunming pipeline (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KD03Df03.html) and even the talks of a chinese-controlled canal through the Malay peninsula in Thailand.
Thailand has talked about building the Kra Canal for over a century. If it ever happens, which it most likely won't, it won't be Chinese controlled, their just looking for (foolish) investors. Thailand is already allied with the US anyway, and even if not, it could just as easily be blockaded as Singapore. All the canal would do is create a slight decrease in shipping time from the middle east and Europe to China.
Quote from: MadImmortalMan on May 25, 2009, 09:11:39 PM
Quote from: miglia on May 25, 2009, 05:56:16 PMeven the talks of a chinese-controlled canal through the Malay peninsula in Thailand.
That could easily be blockaded too. I don't see the point.
not only that, but would thailand really be that stupid to turn over souvereignity of part of its territory?
I don't consider myself an expert on Chinese history, but I'm surprised by the reference to the 'Leninist roots' of the KMT. That seems quite excessive and biased...
Regarding Taiwan and China, I don't think we should be overly worried. What would the KMT or its leadership gain by rejoining China? Demotion to being merely Beijing's appointed officials?
Regarding the broader question about the convenience or even feasibility of self determination I agree historic record seems quite damning. It has been a mess from the start, the 1921 Silesian plebiscite and its results are indeed instructive at the respect: if there is a clear majority, a general consensus, no 'self determination process' is needed; if such a consensus doesn't exist, self determination solves nothing. In other words the very term 'self determination' assumes only ONE community does exist and can decide its own destiny; when there are more than one, and that's usually the case... hilarity ensues, to put it mildly.
Quote from: Alatriste on May 26, 2009, 01:43:18 AM
Regarding the broader question about the convenience or even feasibility of self determination I agree historic record seems quite damning. It has been a mess from the start, the 1921 Silesian plebiscite and its results are indeed instructive at the respect: if there is a clear majority, a general consensus, no 'self determination process' is needed; if such a consensus doesn't exist, self determination solves nothing. In other words the very term 'self determination' assumes only ONE community does exist and can decide its own destiny; when there are more than one, and that's usually the case... hilarity ensues, to put it mildly.
Yep.
Quote from: Valmy on May 25, 2009, 11:44:37 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 25, 2009, 09:16:25 PM
You show a callous disregard for the freedom of the individual.
No I show a great relief everytime a potential world conflict point has a possibility of being resolved.
I just find this attitude to be insane. Who cares if a conflict point is resolved if the totalitarian nation comes out on top. If the goal is to avoid conflict we might as well withdraw from the world and bring back isolationism.
Since when is a one party state synonymous with "totalitarianism"? The PRC is not democratic, but in 2009 it certainly isn't totalitarian either, at least not as I understand the word.
Anyhow, the article is hysterical nonsense. Ma appears to fundamentally pragmatic, and having negotiated commercial treaties with mainland China is hardly the same as handing the keys of Taipei to Beijing.
As well, it must be patently obvious to everyone at this point that the old KMT claim to be the legitimate government of China has become more or less absurd by this time. Recognizing this fact, again, is not handing over control of Taiwan to the CCP.
Anyhow, if the majority of Taiwanese really do want to join China in a HK-esque fashion, then it certainly isn't our place to prevent that from happening.
Quote from: Pitiful Pathos on May 26, 2009, 09:07:46 AM
Anyhow, if the majority of Taiwanese really do want to join China in a HK-esque fashion, then it certainly isn't our place to prevent that from happening.
But they don't, that's the whole point. Support for that is in the single digits.
Yes. Which is part of the reason why the article is hysterical.