I predict more attempts to kidnap serving IDF men and women. The joos might be good at economics and know game theory, but quite obviously Netanyahu is a boob who doesn't understand incentives. Setting the weregeld of an IDF man at 1000 palestinian prisoners will just mean kidnapping one is of great value. This can only turn out badly and cause more violence.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15267100
QuoteGilad Shalit: Israel and Hamas agree prisoner swap deal
Israel and Hamas have agreed a deal for the release of Sgt Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier held hostage by Palestinian militants for five years.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the deal had been reached after arduous talks, and that Sgt Shalit would be back with his family "within days".
Israel is likely to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange.
Sgt Shalit was captured in a cross-border raid in 2006, and repeated attempts to free him have failed.
But Mr Netanyahu said in a national TV address: "We have concluded arduous negotiations with Hamas to release Gilad Shalit. He will be coming home in the next few days."
'Window of opportunity'
The militant group Hamas, which runs Gaza, said in a statement that there were tens of thousands of people on the streets celebrating the deal.
The group's leader Khaled Meshaal appeared on TV to hail the swap deal as a victory for the Palestinian people.
He promised to carry on working to free every Palestinian prisoner held in Israeli jails.
The BBC's Jon Donnison in Jerusalem says Sgt Shalit's family and the families of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails will not believe a deal has been done until their relatives are home.
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz quoted an unnamed official in Mr Netanyahu's office as saying that "a brief window of opportunity has been opened" that could lead to Gilad Shalit's release.
The official added: "The window appeared following fears that collapsing Mid-East regimes and the rise of extremist forces would make Gilad Shalit's return impossible."
An Israeli source involved in the talks was quoted by Reuters news agency as saying that the deal called for 1,000 Palestinians prisoners to be freed in two stages.
The first involves the release of 450 for the soldier, with the remaining 550 to be freed later.
Some of the 5,000 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel have been convicted of serious crimes, but others are being held without charge.
Israel's Channel 2 TV reported that both sides had shown greater flexibility in recent talks.
Indirect talks over 25-year-old Sgt Shalit's release - being mediated by Egypt and Germany - had focused on prisoner exchanges.
In October 2009, Hamas released a video of the soldier calling on Mr Netanyahu to do everything to free him.
Yeah, I really don't get those exchanges, unless they inject all those Palestinians who are being released with a slow-acting poison.
Genophage.
I thought he was dead.
Quote from: Razgovory on October 11, 2011, 05:31:42 PM
I thought he was dead.
Hizbullah negotiated as if the two guys they got were alive and then at the seremony they handed over two bodies. Apparently both had died in the original battle and their bodies were taken.
For Shalit, however, we have proof of life.
My guess is that the 1000 is going to consist mostly of people detained on suspicion without charge, who were going to be released anyways sooner or later.
I miss read the thread title as "Gene Shalit".
The Eternal Warrior would have managed to escape on his own anyway.
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 11, 2011, 05:46:14 PM
My guess is that the 1000 is going to consist mostly of people detained on suspicion without charge, who were going to be released anyways sooner or later.
My guess is that Israel has been rounding up guys they can release that Hamas wants released. Presumably their mobile phones have been cloned and more than a few of these guys will find themselves dead in a way the Israeli Prison system can't make them. This is of course not going to mean anything to the PFLP (or was it the PLFOP or was that PLOP or whatever) when they a concocting a plan to get cousin Ali and uncle Abdullah out of an Israeli prison for smuggling heroin.
Quote from: Ed Anger on October 11, 2011, 05:56:31 PM
I miss read the thread title as "Gene Shalit".
That would be a cruel joke wouldn't it?
Quote from: Viking on October 11, 2011, 04:32:03 PM
I predict more attempts to kidnap serving IDF men and women. The joos might be good at economics and know game theory, but quite obviously Netanyahu is a boob who doesn't understand incentives. Setting the weregeld of an IDF man at 1000 palestinian prisoners will just mean kidnapping one is of great value. This can only turn out badly and cause more violence.
I'd say 1 Israeli is about equal to 1000 Palestinians.
And one Pal is worth at least several dozen Chinese guys.
QuoteSome of the 5,000 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel have been convicted of serious crimes, but others are being held without charge.
Ossum.
He is free now. :)
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4136377,00.html
Quote2 female prisoners refuse to enter Gaza
Security officials have stated that two Palestinian prisoners are refusing to cross into the Gaza Strip. It is believed that their move is delaying the completion of the deal for Shalit's release. (Yoav Zitun)
Freedom in HAMAS Gaza vs. Israeli prison hmmm..
Gaza as an open air prison schtick may have had some palestinians believing their own propaganda... either that or they actually know what
One of them might be this one
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4135644,00.html
Amina Mona
she chattet up an israeli teen on MSN lured him to the WB and murdered him.
BTW the IDF commented that they didn't think Shalit had been brain (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeland_%28TV_series%29)washed (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1676462/combined)
life imitating art and what-not...
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 11, 2011, 05:46:14 PM
My guess is that the 1000 is going to consist mostly of people detained on suspicion without charge, who were going to be released anyways sooner or later.
News reports I saw said some of those being released were serving long sentences, life in some cases, for terrorist attacks, killings, planning and leading attacks.
Yeah,many of the first batch were reported to be hardcore terrorists and criminals.
I suspect one of the unintended consequences of this is that the IDF will stop spending much time and risk trying to arrest terrorists and just kill them instead and terrorists will see being captured as an attractive option, expecting to be released within a few years, regardless of evil deeds.
Now that I know what kinds of filth is being released, I'm really, really concerned this is a very bad idea. Not only does every Israeli now become a valuable bartering chip, but also every Palestinian terrorist is legitimized as a POW. It doesn't matter what terror crimes you committed, it only matters whether you're in an Israeli prison for the moment or not. I hope Israel has an ace up their sleeve, because this looks like sheer lunacy.
Quote from: DGuller on October 18, 2011, 07:45:22 AMI hope Israel has an ace up their sleeve, because this looks like sheer lunacy.
Well, the palestinians are being "released" into Gaza for the most part.... :hmm:
Quote from: DGuller on October 18, 2011, 07:45:22 AM
Now that I know what kinds of filth is being released, I'm really, really concerned this is a very bad idea. Not only does every Israeli now become a valuable bartering chip, but also every Palestinian terrorist is legitimized as a POW. It doesn't matter what terror crimes you committed, it only matters whether you're in an Israeli prison for the moment or not. I hope Israel has an ace up their sleeve, because this looks like sheer lunacy.
If it's not tamper proof explosives operated into the base of the skull then I'll be disappointed. I agree this is monumental stupidity in and of itself. It's an act of monumental stupidity as the precedent it sets. It's an act of monumental stupidity in the perverse incentives it provides to the Palestinians and Israelis alike.
It turns out the Israelis knew WHERE Shalit was being held in downtown Gaza and choose not to try and save him on the grounds that they thought too many Israeli lives would be lost.
Basically sensible Israelis are dealing with madmen. I'm concerned that this will only legitimize HAMAS as an organization that can force Israel into an unfavorable deal. This will re-enforce the idea in the Arab world that the only way to gain their "just" objectives is to force Israel to submit.
Perhaps the Israelis saw this as a sensible way of reducing prisoner numbers by transfering them to a big open air one.
Quote from: Warspite on October 18, 2011, 08:25:48 AM
Perhaps the Israelis saw this as a sensible way of reducing prisoner numbers by transfering them to a big open air one.
<_<
I have more fate in the Israeli government to know what is sensible then some members of an internet forum. :sleep:
Quote from: BVN on October 18, 2011, 09:32:02 AM
I have more fate in the Israeli government to know what is sensible then some members of an internet forum. :sleep:
I have more faith in the sensibility of selected members of this internet forum than I do in the sensibility of politicians scrambling for short term political gain.
Please don't tell me that I'm wrong without explaining exactly how I'm wrong. Don't appeal to authority, especially appeal to Bibi Netanyahu's authority. Languish seems to be in agreement with Israeli commentators on the issue. That this is a terrible Idea with one upside; the guarantee to the mothers of IDF draftees that their children will return whatever the cost; and that everybody should take one day to be happy for the Shalits before they start talking about how stupid this is.
The Shalits don't read this forum so I'll write a letter to the editor tomorrow saying (in more polite terms) what I say on Languish today.
Quote from: Viking on October 18, 2011, 09:44:29 AM
Quote from: BVN on October 18, 2011, 09:32:02 AM
I have more fate in the Israeli government to know what is sensible then some members of an internet forum. :sleep:
I have more faith in the sensibility of selected members of this internet forum than I do in the sensibility of politicians scrambling for short term political gain.
Please don't tell me that I'm wrong without explaining exactly how I'm wrong. Don't appeal to authority, especially appeal to Bibi Netanyahu's authority. Languish seems to be in agreement with Israeli commentators on the issue. That this is a terrible Idea with one upside; the guarantee to the mothers of IDF draftees that their children will return whatever the cost; and that everybody should take one day to be happy for the Shalits before they start talking about how stupid this is.
The Shalits don't read this forum so I'll write a letter to the editor tomorrow saying (in more polite terms) what I say on Languish today.
The response I've heard from Israelis I know is that this action supports the morale of the Israeli army - which, unlike the armies in most of the 1st world these days, is both (a) in active harms way regularly and (b) is a force conscripted from the general population, not simply a professional career force.
Given that Israel relies heavily on its army (being far outnumbered by its enemies), and in particular on having a level of morale unique in the ME, taking steps that are crazy in a surface cost/benefit sense excluding this intangible effect may actually make sense.
In a very different context, when Admiral Cunningham was told it made no sense in a cost-benefit way to risk his vital fleet to air attack to rescue a few thousand stranded soldiers after the battle of Crete, he famously said:
"It takes three years to build a ship; it takes three centuries to build a tradition."
A similar sort of reasoning is at play here. Obviously, Israel hasn't had three centuries, but its army's morale is at least in part predicated on its unique traditions - like never leaving a man behind, officers must lead (even if they are more likely to be casualties), etc. Point here is that doing the "sensible" thing in terms of cost/benefit may have intangible but real costs in terms of loss of unique morale.
Whether the "tradition" and its morale-creating effect is worth the obvious cost/benefit loss is always going to be a matter of argument.
Quote from: Josephus on October 18, 2011, 08:44:20 AM
Quote from: Warspite on October 18, 2011, 08:25:48 AM
Perhaps the Israelis saw this as a sensible way of reducing prisoner numbers by transfering them to a big open air one.
<_<
It's a fair assessment of the brutal realities of Hamas rule.
Quote from: Legbiter on October 18, 2011, 07:54:59 AMWell, the palestinians are being "released" into Gaza for the most part.... :hmm:
The Turks are taking some too. Netanyahu thanked Tantawi for his role in this and it looks like the Egyptians facilitated the deal.
I agree with Jeffrey Goldberg though. Today's for being hapy for the family, worry about the consequences tomorrow.
Quote from: Malthus on October 18, 2011, 09:56:14 AM
The response I've heard from Israelis I know is that this action supports the morale of the Israeli army - which, unlike the armies in most of the 1st world these days, is both (a) in active harms way regularly and (b) is a force conscripted from the general population, not simply a professional career force.
Given that Israel relies heavily on its army (being far outnumbered by its enemies), and in particular on having a level of morale unique in the ME, taking steps that are crazy in a surface cost/benefit sense excluding this intangible effect may actually make sense.
That's pretty much the feeling I'm getting where I work--where there are plenty of Jews.
I assume this has nothing to do with getting back at Palestinian government in WB for that UN thing? They stand to loose major face over this.
To me this seems like the right thing to do.
Quote from: Martinus on October 18, 2011, 03:55:58 PM
To me this seems like the right thing to do.
Can you explain that with regards to
- releasing criminals as if they were POWs
- releasing unrepentant killers
- the high likelyhood of the most violent of the released palestinians being able to murder more civilians
- the fresh incentives for palestinians to attempt to capture more IDF draftees, the disincentives for palestinians (israeli prison) being removed for putitative murderers and the incentive for IDF personnel to shoot to kill rather than attempt to capture terrorist suspects
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 18, 2011, 10:32:31 AM
Today's for being hapy for the family, worry about the consequences tomorrow.
I don't know the family.
Quote from: Viking on October 18, 2011, 04:01:44 PM
Quote from: Martinus on October 18, 2011, 03:55:58 PM
To me this seems like the right thing to do.
Can you explain that with regards to
- releasing criminals as if they were POWs
- releasing unrepentant killers
- the high likelyhood of the most violent of the released palestinians being able to murder more civilians
- the fresh incentives for palestinians to attempt to capture more IDF draftees, the disincentives for palestinians (israeli prison) being removed for putitative murderers and the incentive for IDF personnel to shoot to kill rather than attempt to capture terrorist suspects
He's a Pole, remember?
I was listening to this story on the way back from St. Louis and thought, "wouldn't it be neat if they put little sub-dermal transponders on each of them for the next time they do some 'targeted killings'". Is that possible? Cause that would be really cool.
Quote from: Razgovory on October 18, 2011, 05:17:28 PM
I was listening to this story on the way back from St. Louis and thought, "wouldn't it be neat if they put little sub-dermal transponders on each of them for the next time they do some 'targeted killings'". Is that possible? Cause that would be really cool.
Yep. It's what I would do if I was the HNIC in Israel (Netanyahu, right?)
Quote from: Caliga on October 18, 2011, 08:24:33 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 18, 2011, 05:17:28 PM
I was listening to this story on the way back from St. Louis and thought, "wouldn't it be neat if they put little sub-dermal transponders on each of them for the next time they do some 'targeted killings'". Is that possible? Cause that would be really cool.
Yep. It's what I would do if I was the HNIC in Israel (Netanyahu, right?)
Hockey Night In Canada In Israel??? :wacko:
Quote from: Barrister on October 18, 2011, 10:10:10 PM
Quote from: Caliga on October 18, 2011, 08:24:33 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 18, 2011, 05:17:28 PM
I was listening to this story on the way back from St. Louis and thought, "wouldn't it be neat if they put little sub-dermal transponders on each of them for the next time they do some 'targeted killings'". Is that possible? Cause that would be really cool.
Yep. It's what I would do if I was the HNIC in Israel (Netanyahu, right?)
Hockey Night In Canada In Israel??? :wacko:
Head Nigga In Charge
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=HNIC
Quote from: Viking on October 18, 2011, 10:16:17 PM
Quote from: Barrister on October 18, 2011, 10:10:10 PM
Quote from: Caliga on October 18, 2011, 08:24:33 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 18, 2011, 05:17:28 PM
I was listening to this story on the way back from St. Louis and thought, "wouldn't it be neat if they put little sub-dermal transponders on each of them for the next time they do some 'targeted killings'". Is that possible? Cause that would be really cool.
Yep. It's what I would do if I was the HNIC in Israel (Netanyahu, right?)
Hockey Night In Canada In Israel??? :wacko:
Head Nigga In Charge
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=HNIC
:frusty:
I'm well aware of that acronym. I was merely pointing out that north of the 49th, HNIC has a completely different meaning.
HNIC = "Hockey Night in Canada".
Quote from: Razgovory on October 18, 2011, 05:17:28 PM
I was listening to this story on the way back from St. Louis and thought, "wouldn't it be neat if they put little sub-dermal transponders on each of them for the next time they do some 'targeted killings'". Is that possible? Cause that would be really cool.
:hmm: That's actually an even better idea that my slow-acting poison idea.
Quote from: DGuller on October 18, 2011, 11:19:21 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 18, 2011, 05:17:28 PM
I was listening to this story on the way back from St. Louis and thought, "wouldn't it be neat if they put little sub-dermal transponders on each of them for the next time they do some 'targeted killings'". Is that possible? Cause that would be really cool.
:hmm: That's actually an even better idea that my slow-acting poison idea.
When I first saw Shalit after his release my gut feeling told me he was somehow sick.
Quote from: Viking on October 19, 2011, 01:24:42 AM
When I first saw Shalit after his release my gut feeling told me he was somehow sick.
Was it because he was very thing or very pale?
Quote from: Razgovory on October 19, 2011, 03:17:46 AM
Quote from: Viking on October 19, 2011, 01:24:42 AM
When I first saw Shalit after his release my gut feeling told me he was somehow sick.
Was it because he was very thing or very pale?
Your Shalit isn't my Shalit
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.comicvine.com%2Fuploads%2F10%2F104038%2F1946759-the_thing_15976.jpg&hash=29e59689a5b25d6aba248016f5790fa27dcf562e)
but to answer the question you intended to ask, both.
seriously, the guy looks like a concentration camp survivor.
Quote from: Barrister on October 18, 2011, 10:23:16 PM
:frusty:
I'm well aware of that acronym. I was merely pointing out that north of the 49th, HNIC has a completely different meaning.
Who cares?