Gilad Shalit to be exchanged for 1000 palestinian prisoners.

[Viking]

BTW the IDF commented that they didn't think Shalit had been brainwashed

life imitating art and what-not...

[KRonn]

My guess is that the 1000 is going to consist mostly of people detained on suspicion without charge, who were going to be released anyways sooner or later.

News reports I saw said some of those being released were serving long sentences, life in some cases, for terrorist attacks, killings, planning and leading attacks. 

[Josephus]

Yeah,many of the first batch were reported to be hardcore terrorists and criminals.

[Viking]

I suspect one of the unintended consequences of this is that the IDF will stop spending much time and risk trying to arrest terrorists and just kill them instead and terrorists will see being captured as an attractive option, expecting to be released within a few years, regardless of evil deeds.

[DGuller]

Now that I know what kinds of filth is being released, I'm really, really concerned this is a very bad idea.  Not only does every Israeli now become a valuable bartering chip, but also every Palestinian terrorist is legitimized as a POW.  It doesn't matter what terror crimes you committed, it only matters whether you're in an Israeli prison for the moment or not.  I hope Israel has an ace up their sleeve, because this looks like sheer lunacy.

[Legbiter]

I hope Israel has an ace up their sleeve, because this looks like sheer lunacy.

Well, the palestinians are being "released" into Gaza for the most part....

[Viking]

Now that I know what kinds of filth is being released, I'm really, really concerned this is a very bad idea.  Not only does every Israeli now become a valuable bartering chip, but also every Palestinian terrorist is legitimized as a POW.  It doesn't matter what terror crimes you committed, it only matters whether you're in an Israeli prison for the moment or not.  I hope Israel has an ace up their sleeve, because this looks like sheer lunacy.

If it's not tamper proof explosives operated into the base of the skull then I'll be disappointed. I agree this is monumental stupidity in and of itself. It's an act of monumental stupidity as the precedent it sets. It's an act of monumental stupidity in the perverse incentives it provides to the Palestinians and Israelis alike.

It turns out the Israelis knew WHERE Shalit was being held in downtown Gaza and choose not to try and save him on the grounds that they thought too many Israeli lives would be lost.

Basically sensible Israelis are dealing with madmen. I'm concerned that this will only legitimize HAMAS as an organization that can force Israel into an unfavorable deal. This will re-enforce the idea in the Arab world that the only way to gain their "just" objectives is to force Israel to submit.

[Warspite]

Perhaps the Israelis saw this as a sensible way of reducing prisoner numbers by transfering them to a big open air one.

[Josephus]

Perhaps the Israelis saw this as a sensible way of reducing prisoner numbers by transfering them to a big open air one.

[BVN]

I have more fate in the Israeli government to know what is sensible then some members of an internet forum. 

[Viking]

I have more fate in the Israeli government to know what is sensible then some members of an internet forum. 

I have more faith in the sensibility of selected members of this internet forum than I do in the sensibility of politicians scrambling for short term political gain.

Please don't tell me that I'm wrong without explaining exactly how I'm wrong. Don't appeal to authority, especially appeal to Bibi Netanyahu's authority. Languish seems to be in agreement with Israeli commentators on the issue. That this is a terrible Idea with one upside; the guarantee to the mothers of IDF draftees that their children will return whatever the cost; and that everybody should take one day to be happy for the Shalits before they start talking about how stupid this is.

The Shalits don't read this forum so I'll write a letter to the editor tomorrow saying (in more polite terms) what I say on Languish today.

[Malthus]

I have more fate in the Israeli government to know what is sensible then some members of an internet forum. 

I have more faith in the sensibility of selected members of this internet forum than I do in the sensibility of politicians scrambling for short term political gain.

Please don't tell me that I'm wrong without explaining exactly how I'm wrong. Don't appeal to authority, especially appeal to Bibi Netanyahu's authority. Languish seems to be in agreement with Israeli commentators on the issue. That this is a terrible Idea with one upside; the guarantee to the mothers of IDF draftees that their children will return whatever the cost; and that everybody should take one day to be happy for the Shalits before they start talking about how stupid this is.

The Shalits don't read this forum so I'll write a letter to the editor tomorrow saying (in more polite terms) what I say on Languish today.

The response I've heard from Israelis I know is that this action supports the morale of the Israeli army - which, unlike the armies in most of the 1st world these days, is both (a) in active harms way regularly and (b) is a force conscripted from the general population, not simply a professional career force.

Given that Israel relies heavily on its army (being far outnumbered by its enemies), and in particular on having a level of morale unique in the ME, taking steps that are crazy in a surface cost/benefit sense excluding this intangible effect may actually make sense.

In a very different context, when Admiral Cunningham was told it made no sense in a cost-benefit way to risk his vital fleet to air attack to rescue a few thousand stranded soldiers after the battle of Crete, he famously said:

"It takes three years to build a ship; it takes three centuries to build a tradition."

A similar sort of reasoning is at play here. Obviously, Israel hasn't had three centuries, but its army's morale is at least in part predicated on its unique traditions - like never leaving a man behind, officers must lead (even if they are more likely to be casualties), etc. Point here is that doing the "sensible" thing in terms of cost/benefit may have intangible but real costs in terms of loss of unique morale.

Whether the "tradition" and its morale-creating effect is worth the obvious cost/benefit loss is always going to be a matter of argument.
 

[The Minsky Moment]

Perhaps the Israelis saw this as a sensible way of reducing prisoner numbers by transfering them to a big open air one.

It's a fair assessment of the brutal realities of Hamas rule.

[Sheilbh]

Well, the palestinians are being "released" into Gaza for the most part....

The Turks are taking some too.  Netanyahu thanked Tantawi for his role in this and it looks like the Egyptians facilitated the deal.

I agree with Jeffrey Goldberg though.  Today's for being hapy for the family, worry about the consequences tomorrow.

[Josephus]

The response I've heard from Israelis I know is that this action supports the morale of the Israeli army - which, unlike the armies in most of the 1st world these days, is both (a) in active harms way regularly and (b) is a force conscripted from the general population, not simply a professional career force.

Given that Israel relies heavily on its army (being far outnumbered by its enemies), and in particular on having a level of morale unique in the ME, taking steps that are crazy in a surface cost/benefit sense excluding this intangible effect may actually make sense.

That's pretty much the feeling I'm getting where I work--where there are plenty of Jews.