We don't have a thread on this?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/18/world/europe/Nagorno-Karabakh-war-Armenia-Azerbaijan.html
Monstrous.
Atrocious
I was driving on New Jersey Turnpike a couple of days ago, and saw a banner over the highway attached to an overpass demanding a stop to Azeri aggression and recognition of Artsakh. I guess there are some Armenians in the area.
I've been to Yerevan. Beautiful downtown. Good food. Very attractive women.
Of course the rest of Armenia is hopelessly poor. The drive from Yerevan to Tbilisi is very bumpy.
Quote from: FunkMonk on October 21, 2020, 08:32:54 AM
The drive from Yerevan to Tbilisi is very bumpy.
Beats the one from the Persian Gulf to Armenia via Iran I bet though. :P
Full blown war between nation states getting so little play here? Where have all the grognards gone?
Psellus is all over it on Facebook, he is my news source on this
Between Covid and the election I can't really focus on any other news stuff. It's exhausting.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on October 23, 2020, 06:18:59 AM
Full blown war between nation states getting so little play here? Where have all the grognards gone?
You're the one who's supposed to keep us in the loop. :contract:
Which side is Russia on this week?
My problem is I don't know who to root for.
FYI, games for the EURO 2020 football tournament are still scheduled to be played in Baku. In late spring/early summer 2021 that is.
Plenty of time to settle the matter or score some points.
Quote from: Darth Wagtaros on October 23, 2020, 07:27:10 AM
Which side is Russia on this week?
Same as last week, both. :P
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 07:28:27 AM
My problem is I don't know who to root for.
The Party did not send a memo? :P
Quote from: Tamas on October 23, 2020, 06:34:40 AM
Psellus is all over it on Facebook, he is my news source on this
Ditto.
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 07:28:27 AM
My problem is I don't know who to root for.
I think that's the case for most people. I sympathize with Armenian people generally, as they seem to be most like Jewish people: spread out all over the world due to often murderous persecution. On the other hand, they technically are occupiers of an Azeri territory. On the other hand, the fact that some of that territory was Azeri was one of those "draw a map of Africa" decision that ensured war for generations to come. On the other hand, Armenia is to some extent protected by Russia, which always casts a shadow over your moral superiority. On the other hand, Erdogan is just as distasteful of a dictator as Putin, and he's clearly the key person behind starting the war against Armenia. Letting genocide deniers deliver another beatdown to Armenia would seem very cruel.
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 07:28:27 AM
My problem is I don't know who to root for.
Easy. Find the side that backed by Turkey. Then pick the other side.
Quote from: Razgovory on October 23, 2020, 08:17:40 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 07:28:27 AM
My problem is I don't know who to root for.
Easy. Find the side that backed by Turkey. Then pick the other side.
So, Russia?
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 07:28:27 AM
My problem is I don't know who to root for.
Armenia, duh.
Quote from: DGuller on October 23, 2020, 08:15:01 AM
I think that's the case for most people. I sympathize with Armenian people generally, as they seem to be most like Jewish people: spread out all over the world due to often murderous persecution. On the other hand, they technically are occupiers of an Azeri territory. On the other hand, the fact that some of that territory was Azeri was one of those "draw a map of Africa" decision that ensured war for generations to come. On the other hand, Armenia is to some extent protected by Russia, which always casts a shadow over your moral superiority. On the other hand, Erdogan is just as distasteful of a dictator as Putin, and he's clearly the key person behind starting the war against Armenia. Letting genocide deniers deliver another beatdown to Armenia would seem very cruel.
Agree generally. It would be much easier to root for Armenia if they weren't supported by Putin.
OTOH Russia also sells arms to Azerbaijan. And Armenia is smaller and poorer. Plus they have the genocide card.
Britain was literally allied with Stalin at one point but we don't go all "well at one hand, but on the other hand" over that do we?
I am rooting for peace. This is a stupid war.
Quote from: Valmy on October 23, 2020, 04:38:35 PM
I am rooting for peace. This is a stupid war.
Thank you Miss Texas, what is your talent? :p
Quote from: Tamas on October 23, 2020, 04:41:57 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 23, 2020, 04:38:35 PM
I am rooting for peace. This is a stupid war.
Thank you Miss Texas, what is your talent? :p
You should see him in a swim suit
Quote from: Tamas on October 23, 2020, 04:41:57 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 23, 2020, 04:38:35 PM
I am rooting for peace. This is a stupid war.
Thank you Miss Texas, what is your talent? :p
We have already had tens of thousands of people butchered and hundreds of thousands driven from their homes to no end at all in this endless conflict.
I guess I fail to see the logic or intelligence of pointlessly continuing to try a military solution. Especially as it seems clear Azerbaijan has no plan to win outside of a meat grinder.
A brief study of the history shows Armenia is the one in the right. Interesting quite how much shit went down with pogroms et al even whilst the ussr still stood.
Sadly a solution to this all is further away than ever with the fighting.
Quote from: Valmy on October 23, 2020, 05:33:23 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 23, 2020, 04:41:57 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 23, 2020, 04:38:35 PM
I am rooting for peace. This is a stupid war.
Thank you Miss Texas, what is your talent? :p
We have already had tens of thousands of people butchered and hundreds of thousands driven from their homes to no end at all in this endless conflict.
I guess I fail to see the logic or intelligence of pointlessly continuing to try a military solution. Especially as it seems clear Azerbaijan has no plan to win outside of a meat grinder.
It's the Caucasus, dude. But just because the basic premise is idiocy it doesn't mean that both sides are equally wrong. If the other side is hell-bent on ethnic cleansing you out of your home I don't think "yeah whatever just avoid war" is a solution.
BTW, there was the case of this Azeri officer almost a decade ago who was at some international military training event in Hungary. There was also an Armenian officer invited so one night the Azeri took an axe, went into the Armenian's bedroom, and killed him in his sleep. After a short imprisonment Hungary was quite clearly bribed by Azerbaijan to let the guy "spend the rest of his sentence" there. Once the plane landed with him back home he was celebrated as a nation hero, and since then he has entered politics as I understand.
Maybe the Armenians are similar but for me this really put a bad light on Azeri population and society.
It would seem simpler, faster, and cheaper to pay every Armenian in Nagorno Karabakh say, $100,000 or even $500,000 to move to Armenia or Michigan. There are about 144,000 Armenians living there, and at $100,000 each that would amount to a cost of a bit under $15 billion. That's the cost of maybe 7,000 tanks or APCs, 500 or so of which have been destroyed already. Drones and missiles are probably a million or so, and a thousand or more have been used or lost in the campaign to date.
Yes, homeland, etc, blah blah. It's still a fucking insane war that costs far more than anything that could be gained could be worth. Does Azerbaijan really want to pay buckets of blood for a region that will just suicide-bomb them for the next 25 years?
PSA: my best friend is Armenian-American, and this is suggested by him. His grandma made the best baklava ever and convinced me that it is an Armenian dish, no matter what the Turks, Arabs, or Greeks say.
Quote from: Tamas on October 23, 2020, 04:38:04 PM
Britain was literally allied with Stalin at one point but we don't go all "well at one hand, but on the other hand" over that do we?
:lol: But I don't think either side are Hitler/Stalin level or that British interests are so desperately engaged as they were in WW2.
If I'm honest my natural position would be to be more suspicious of Putin given that he's recently invaded a European country and seized their territory and is still fighting a guerrilla war in that country (especially because I've been to Ukraine - and Georgia - a few times and like it a lot).
But I don't know enough and I'm not engaged enough in it to really have an opinion. I really want to go to Armenia and only kind of want to go to Azerbaijan, and Armenia had a recent "revolution" while Azerbaijan have a comedy dynastic kleptocracy. So I suppose given that plus the Russia factor, I'd lean Armenia.
If I go back to 1991, when Gorbachev was still USSR president, and ask him if Nagorno Karabakh belonged to Armenia or Azerbaijan, what would the answer be?
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 09:21:23 PM
If I go back to 1991, when Gorbachev was still USSR president, and ask him if Nagorno Karabakh belonged to Armenia or Azerbaijan, what would the answer be?
Which part of 1991? That was right in the middle of the previous war.
Quote from: Valmy on October 23, 2020, 09:26:15 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 09:21:23 PM
If I go back to 1991, when Gorbachev was still USSR president, and ask him if Nagorno Karabakh belonged to Armenia or Azerbaijan, what would the answer be?
Which part of 1991? That was right in the middle of the previous war.
1985 then. What would the answer be?
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 09:36:35 PM
1988 then. What would the answer be?
It was inside the Azerbaijan SSR.
But we all that it all belongs to the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic.
Then I guess the Armenians should cease and desist :contract:
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 09:21:23 PM
If I go back to 1991, when Gorbachev was still USSR president, and ask him if Nagorno Karabakh belonged to Armenia or Azerbaijan, what would the answer be?
"Piss off, I'm kind of busy right now."
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 09:44:50 PM
Then I guess the Armenians should cease and desist :contract:
I'd guess that you'd guess that. Though you'd be wrong. :contract:
Quote from: Valmy on October 23, 2020, 09:41:34 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 09:36:35 PM
1988 then. What would the answer be?
It was inside the Azerbaijan SSR.
Although wasn't it one of those autonomous regions within the SSR due to the ethnic difference?
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 23, 2020, 10:25:45 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 23, 2020, 09:41:34 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 09:36:35 PM
1988 then. What would the answer be?
It was inside the Azerbaijan SSR.
Although wasn't it one of those autonomous regions within the SSR due to the ethnic difference?
Portions of it were. The borders of the autonomous oblast enclosed about half the territory of the Republic of Artsakh.
Given the passage of the Viking expedition of Ingvar the Far-Travelled around 1040 it seems obvious to me that the area is fundamentally Swedish.
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 09:36:35 PM
Quote from: Valmy on October 23, 2020, 09:26:15 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on October 23, 2020, 09:21:23 PM
If I go back to 1991, when Gorbachev was still USSR president, and ask him if Nagorno Karabakh belonged to Armenia or Azerbaijan, what would the answer be?
Which part of 1991? That was right in the middle of the previous war.
1985 then. What would the answer be?
It shouldn't belong to anyone but it's people. The soviet authorities are responsible for dividing the map in this way, likely deliberately as they wanted to mix things up and stop strong united ethnic states
This happened. It should be conducted again with proper international oversight and the participation of those azeris who fled nk
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Nagorno-Karabakh_independence_referendum
Quote from: The Brain on October 24, 2020, 03:16:01 AM
Given the passage of the Viking expedition of Ingvar the Far-Travelled around 1040 it seems obvious to me that the area is fundamentally Swedish.
Blame Sweden? :hmm:
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 23, 2020, 08:56:24 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 23, 2020, 04:38:04 PM
Britain was literally allied with Stalin at one point but we don't go all "well at one hand, but on the other hand" over that do we?
:lol: But I don't think either side are Hitler/Stalin level or that British interests are so desperately engaged as they were in WW2.
If I'm honest my natural position would be to be more suspicious of Putin given that he's recently invaded a European country and seized their territory and is still fighting a guerrilla war in that country (especially because I've been to Ukraine - and Georgia - a few times and like it a lot).
But I don't know enough and I'm not engaged enough in it to really have an opinion. I really want to go to Armenia and only kind of want to go to Azerbaijan, and Armenia had a recent "revolution" while Azerbaijan have a comedy dynastic kleptocracy. So I suppose given that plus the Russia factor, I'd lean Armenia.
If it is a nefarious plot by Putin then it is certainly beyond my comprehension, scheming to make Armenia defend Karabagh and their civilians there as opposed to... whatever Armenia would do without Putin's scheming.
BBC confirms this video of hand-tied Armenians executed by Azeris as genuine:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54645254
But let's not take sides, less we risk finding ourselves by accident on the side Russia prefers.
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 23, 2020, 08:56:24 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 23, 2020, 04:38:04 PM
Britain was literally allied with Stalin at one point but we don't go all "well at one hand, but on the other hand" over that do we?
:lol: But I don't think either side are Hitler/Stalin level or that British interests are so desperately engaged as they were in WW2.
Oh and here that was kind of my point really: When our country fought a defensive war for dear life, then allying with Putin squared was fine. But when somebody else fights for dear life and they happen to be traditional allies of Russia because nobody else would support them in a sea of hostile tribes and religion, then oh no, that's inexcusable and they must carry half the blame for being attacked.
Quote from: grumbler on October 23, 2020, 06:45:31 PM
It would seem simpler, faster, and cheaper to pay every Armenian in Nagorno Karabakh say, $100,000 or even $500,000 to move to Armenia or Michigan. There are about 144,000 Armenians living there, and at $100,000 each that would amount to a cost of a bit under $15 billion. That's the cost of maybe 7,000 tanks or APCs, 500 or so of which have been destroyed already. Drones and missiles are probably a million or so, and a thousand or more have been used or lost in the campaign to date.
Yes, homeland, etc, blah blah. It's still a fucking insane war that costs far more than anything that could be gained could be worth. Does Azerbaijan really want to pay buckets of blood for a region that will just suicide-bomb them for the next 25 years?
PSA: my best friend is Armenian-American, and this is suggested by him. His grandma made the best baklava ever and convinced me that it is an Armenian dish, no matter what the Turks, Arabs, or Greeks say.
Based on listening to news the last five years or so makes me think being a homeless refuge/migrant is not all that you are trying to make it out to be.
Quote from: Tamas on October 24, 2020, 09:51:12 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 23, 2020, 08:56:24 PM
Quote from: Tamas on October 23, 2020, 04:38:04 PM
Britain was literally allied with Stalin at one point but we don't go all "well at one hand, but on the other hand" over that do we?
:lol: But I don't think either side are Hitler/Stalin level or that British interests are so desperately engaged as they were in WW2.
Oh and here that was kind of my point really: When our country fought a defensive war for dear life, then allying with Putin squared was fine. But when somebody else fights for dear life and they happen to be traditional allies of Russia because nobody else would support them in a sea of hostile tribes and religion, then oh no, that's inexcusable and they must carry half the blame for being attacked.
:huh: This screed seems to be 100% against a man made of straw.
Quote from: Tamas on October 24, 2020, 09:53:00 AM
Quote from: grumbler on October 23, 2020, 06:45:31 PM
It would seem simpler, faster, and cheaper to pay every Armenian in Nagorno Karabakh say, $100,000 or even $500,000 to move to Armenia or Michigan. There are about 144,000 Armenians living there, and at $100,000 each that would amount to a cost of a bit under $15 billion. That's the cost of maybe 7,000 tanks or APCs, 500 or so of which have been destroyed already. Drones and missiles are probably a million or so, and a thousand or more have been used or lost in the campaign to date.
Yes, homeland, etc, blah blah. It's still a fucking insane war that costs far more than anything that could be gained could be worth. Does Azerbaijan really want to pay buckets of blood for a region that will just suicide-bomb them for the next 25 years?
PSA: my best friend is Armenian-American, and this is suggested by him. His grandma made the best baklava ever and convinced me that it is an Armenian dish, no matter what the Turks, Arabs, or Greeks say.
Based on listening to news the last five years or so makes me think being a homeless refuge/migrant is not all that you are trying to make it out to be.
Can you quote back to me that part where I talk about what it is like being a homeless refuge/migrant? I can't remember saying a word about it.
I just don't see how being helped by Russia (which I don't actually know if the case here, are they being actively supplied/supported right now?) to defend yourself makes you shoulder part of the blame for being attacked.
The Armenians seem on paper to be hilariously outmanned and outgunned with their crappy Soviet-era kit compared to the Azeris with their fancy modern stuff. On the other hand the region is mountainous and the Armenians are under no illusions about what will happen to the local civilians if the invasion succeeds. :hmm:
It's also difficult to find any good news sources about what's happening on the ground. It's either obvious propaganda or some generic account by a journalist who's at home in his pajamas logged into Twitter. As far as I can tell the war is a mixture of trench warfare, artillery duels and drone strikes. Apparently the Azeris are using a lot of Syrian mercenaries as cannon fodder via Turkey.
Quote from: grumbler on October 24, 2020, 09:56:45 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 24, 2020, 09:53:00 AM
Quote from: grumbler on October 23, 2020, 06:45:31 PM
It would seem simpler, faster, and cheaper to pay every Armenian in Nagorno Karabakh say, $100,000 or even $500,000 to move to Armenia or Michigan. There are about 144,000 Armenians living there, and at $100,000 each that would amount to a cost of a bit under $15 billion. That's the cost of maybe 7,000 tanks or APCs, 500 or so of which have been destroyed already. Drones and missiles are probably a million or so, and a thousand or more have been used or lost in the campaign to date.
Yes, homeland, etc, blah blah. It's still a fucking insane war that costs far more than anything that could be gained could be worth. Does Azerbaijan really want to pay buckets of blood for a region that will just suicide-bomb them for the next 25 years?
PSA: my best friend is Armenian-American, and this is suggested by him. His grandma made the best baklava ever and convinced me that it is an Armenian dish, no matter what the Turks, Arabs, or Greeks say.
Based on listening to news the last five years or so makes me think being a homeless refuge/migrant is not all that you are trying to make it out to be.
Can you quote back to me that part where I talk about what it is like being a homeless refuge/migrant? I can't remember saying a word about it.
Fine so the plan would be that Armenia and perhaps Azerbaijan pays this $100k bill per Armenian in the region to be settled in the US? I think we can also assume the US would play ball as IIRC you can get a greencard if you invest 100k in the country, so make it say $150k each that buys them a greencard, some passive income, and covers the rent.
What if some Armenians don't want to go? Would there be a % where Armenia should feel inclined to defend its citizens there and reject handing the region over? What happens to the supposedly millions of dollars paid to those who did agree to move, does it have to be refunded to pay for the shooting war to protect those who stay? If they don't get protected by Armenia, can Armenia give some reassurance to its remaining citizens that they would not be sold to another country as part of a larger arrangement?
If Azerbaijan foots some of the bill and some Armenians remain do they get to claim their investment back from Armenia, or would they get to invoice it to the remaining Armenians in the region? Do they get the right to get rid of the remaining Armenians, and if they attempt without just cause to remove or kill them, will Armenia be allowed to launch a now offensive war to try and protect them?
If Armenia does get a justified offensive war to protect hose who stayed after the financial transaction, should that be preceded with an arrangement to pay $150k to each Azeris in the region?
Etc. It's an idea I'd personally jump on if I lived there and ever offered, but otherwise grandma-worthily naive.
Quote from: Legbiter on October 24, 2020, 10:03:33 AM
The Armenians seem on paper to be hilariously outmanned and outgunned with their crappy Soviet-era kit compared to the Azeris with their fancy modern stuff. On the other hand the region is mountainous and the Armenians are under no illusions about what will happen to the local civilians if the invasion succeeds. :hmm:
It's also difficult to find any good news sources about what's happening on the ground. It's either obvious propaganda or some generic account by a journalist who's at home in his pajamas logged into Twitter. As far as I can tell the war is a mixture of trench warfare, artillery duels and drone strikes. Apparently the Azeris are using a lot of Syrian mercenaries as cannon fodder via Turkey.
By the sound of it here, that is damning enough to blame half of this on them.
Quote from: Tamas on October 24, 2020, 09:57:07 AM
I just don't see how being helped by Russia (which I don't actually know if the case here, are they being actively supplied/supported right now?) to defend yourself makes you shoulder part of the blame for being attacked.
In this conflict, I can very much believe that Russia wants to be no part of it, and is probably annoyed that it has to deal with it. In the first conflict, Armenia was not defending itself. I believe that neither side was an aggressor, it was just a long-frozen conflict that thawed, but it's hard to make Armenia out as a defender in the first war.
Quote from: DGuller on October 24, 2020, 10:33:06 AM
Quote from: Tamas on October 24, 2020, 09:57:07 AM
I just don't see how being helped by Russia (which I don't actually know if the case here, are they being actively supplied/supported right now?) to defend yourself makes you shoulder part of the blame for being attacked.
In this conflict, I can very much believe that Russia wants to be no part of it, and is probably annoyed that it has to deal with it. In the first conflict, Armenia was not defending itself. I believe that neither side was an aggressor, it was just a long-frozen conflict that thawed, but it's hard to make Armenia out as a defender in the first war.
Well, until I hear about an Armenian axing down a sleeping man and becoming a national hero for it, and see a BBC-confirmed video of Armenians executing Azeri POWs, I'll be siding with the Armenians. Not everything has to be grey.
Quote from: Tamas on October 24, 2020, 10:08:46 AMBy the sound of it here, that is damning enough to blame half of this on them.
Yeah. According to this account the Armenians are badly losing the war.
QuoteFour weeks into the war, Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh face a military calamity. Azerbaijan's drones and artillery have whittled them down, forcing a steady retreat. Unable to effectively counterattack or replace its losses, Armenia's military has ceded considerable ground.
Although Azerbaijan's early offensives did not result in significant gains, over the past two weeks they have captured a substantial amount of territory south of Stepanakert and along the Iranian border. Now Armenian forces are under threat of being cut off entirely as the Lachin corridor, linking Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia proper, is within range of Azerbaijani artillery. It is possible that Azerbaijan will capture this critical supply line within days, or at least begin to interdict it. At the time of this writing Armenian forces are trying to stabilize the battlefield and repel further Azerbaijani advances towards Lachin. The battle line is seesawing as fighting intensifies in this area.
Having seized Jabrayil, Hadrut and Fizuli, Azerbaijan's military has advanced west towards the Hakari river valley and turned north. The war is not over, but it is clear that Armenia has no way to reverse such gains, or reconstitute its substantial losses; digging in will place its forces under siege. Consequently, Baku can already claim a significant political victory based on battlefield performance and territory brought back under its control, though there is no sign it intends to stop its advance.
The military balance has long favored Azerbaijan, which holds qualitative and quantitative superiority over Armenia. For decades, Baku has poured money from energy exports into a much more modernized military, buying a host of capabilities from Russia, Turkey, and Israel.
Armenian forces' were unprepared for armed drones and loitering munitions, which Azerbaijan began using to great effect, destroying Armenian armored fighting vehicles, air defense systems, and targeting everything that could be found in the open across the line of control. Fielding dated air defenses, in relatively small numbers, and with armored equipment deployed in revetments that were largely exposed to air attack, Armenian forces had not adapted to Azerbaijan's capabilities.
https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-armenias-military-position-in-nagorno-karabakh-grows-precarious (https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-armenias-military-position-in-nagorno-karabakh-grows-precarious)
QuoteIt's the Caucasus, dude. But just because the basic premise is idiocy it doesn't mean that both sides are equally wrong. If the other side is hell-bent on ethnic cleansing you out of your home I don't think "yeah whatever just avoid war" is a solution.
Wanting an immediate end to a war is not a neutral view when one side has thus far been unsuccessful in their efforts to change the status quo.
I don't wish ill on the Azeris but they need to stop. If they think the world is just going to do nothing while they engage in a slowmotion conquest they are mistaken. Even if they eventually win they will pay dearly for this.
Quote from: Tamas on October 24, 2020, 09:57:07 AM
I just don't see how being helped by Russia (which I don't actually know if the case here, are they being actively supplied/supported right now?) to defend yourself makes you shoulder part of the blame for being attacked.
No one seems to be arguing that they should shoulder any part of the blame. Who are you arguing against?
Quote from: Tamas on October 24, 2020, 10:07:17 AM
Fine so the plan would be that Armenia and perhaps Azerbaijan pays this $100k bill per Armenian in the region to be settled in the US? I think we can also assume the US would play ball as IIRC you can get a greencard if you invest 100k in the country, so make it say $150k each that buys them a greencard, some passive income, and covers the rent.
Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan could afford to pay more than a token amount into this fund, but their sponsors and the rest of the world community could chip in. It's not much money by global standards. They'd go to the US as refugees, so no investment money needed. They could also go to Armenia as refugees, but with money to start over.
QuoteWhat if some Armenians don't want to go? Would there be a % where Armenia should feel inclined to defend its citizens there and reject handing the region over? What happens to the supposedly millions of dollars paid to those who did agree to move, does it have to be refunded to pay for the shooting war to protect those who stay? If they don't get protected by Armenia, can Armenia give some reassurance to its remaining citizens that they would not be sold to another country as part of a larger arrangement?
Anyone who wants to stay and become a citizen of Azerbaijan is welcome to. I don't foresee large numbers of remainers, given the deal they are being offered, but there would be some, I suppose. Armenia would have nothing more to say there.
QuoteIf Azerbaijan foots some of the bill and some Armenians remain do they get to claim their investment back from Armenia, or would they get to invoice it to the remaining Armenians in the region? Do they get the right to get rid of the remaining Armenians, and if they attempt without just cause to remove or kill them, will Armenia be allowed to launch a now offensive war to try and protect them?
I don't know what any of this means. Armenia would have no further say in Azerbaijan.
QuoteIf Armenia does get a justified offensive war to protect hose who stayed after the financial transaction, should that be preceded with an arrangement to pay $150k to each Azeris in the region?
I have no idea what this means. I don't propose paying any Azeris.
QuoteEtc. It's an idea I'd personally jump on if I lived there and ever offered, but otherwise grandma-worthily naive.
I'm guessing you don't "get" the whole idea of thought experiments. It isn't "naive" to propose a thought experiment where the vast expense of a war goes instead into avoiding the need for it. If anything, it is grandma-worthy naïve to think that I am in a position to actually offer such a plan!
Quote from: Tyr on October 24, 2020, 03:19:37 AM
It shouldn't belong to anyone but it's people. The soviet authorities are responsible for dividing the map in this way, likely deliberately as they wanted to mix things up and stop strong united ethnic states
My understanding is Nogorno-whatchamacallit is an enthnic enclave surrounded by Azeri-inhabited territory. If the Soviets purposely fucked with the map, what could the border have been that didn't either strand Armenians or Azeris on the wrong side?
I have to say, sometimes I think the only way to solve the conflicts like these is through population transfers, in theory. Without such transfers, one side will always be waiting for time when they have an upper hand to revise the status quo, which is what Azeris did after their defeat in the first war. The problem is that "population transfers" is often a euphemism for genocide. Has there been any successful population transfer where conflicts were resolved by economic incentives to do population transfers?
Quote from: DGuller on October 24, 2020, 01:26:42 PM
I have to say, sometimes I think the only way to solve the conflicts like these is through population transfers, in theory. Without such transfers, one side will always be waiting for time when they have an upper hand to revise the status quo, which is what Azeris did after their defeat in the first war. The problem is that "population transfers" is often a euphemism for genocide. Has there been any successful population transfer where conflicts were resolved by economic incentives to do population transfers?
If one side is so horrible that the other side's population chooses to flee almost to a man then the open wound will scar over in time. For instance Finnish Karelia after WW2. Granted the incentives went way beyond ecomonics for sure, even if the economic incentive to flee in itself was quite considerable.
When was the last time population exchanges were used as a way to solve a conflict?
Especially on ethnic rather than political lines...
I think the partition of India was the last time?
Way too many examples of this going poorly. And these Armenians could already have moved to Armenia proper for a better life. Strikes me as nice in theory but unlikely to happen even if the offer was there.
Quote from: The Brain on October 24, 2020, 01:37:42 PM
Quote from: DGuller on October 24, 2020, 01:26:42 PM
I have to say, sometimes I think the only way to solve the conflicts like these is through population transfers, in theory. Without such transfers, one side will always be waiting for time when they have an upper hand to revise the status quo, which is what Azeris did after their defeat in the first war. The problem is that "population transfers" is often a euphemism for genocide. Has there been any successful population transfer where conflicts were resolved by economic incentives to do population transfers?
If one side is so horrible that the other side's population chooses to flee almost to a man then the open wound will scar over in time. For instance Finnish Karelia after WW2. Granted the incentives went way beyond ecomonics for sure, even if the economic incentive to flee in itself was quite considerable.
that's going to be a bit hard with one side calling this basically a jihad and being helped by a country that has genocided a million+ of the other side while refusing to even acknowledge that fact and even revelling in said genocide (as evidenced in the ongoing conflict with the Kurds where the Turks regularly made threats to go Armenian on them).
The more I follow this conflict, the more I have to sympathize with Armenians. Azeris and Turks are definitely not good guys here. What a shame that Israel is supplying Azeris with drones that pretty much pulverize everything Armernian that's on the surface.
Quote from: Tyr on October 24, 2020, 01:52:52 PM
When was the last time population exchanges were used as a way to solve a conflict?
Especially on ethnic rather than political lines...
I think the partition of India was the last time?
Way too many examples of this going poorly. And these Armenians could already have moved to Armenia proper for a better life. Strikes me as nice in theory but unlikely to happen even if the offer was there.
Croatia and Kosovo both saw half of the pre-conflict Serb population leave at the end of the conflict when the Serb side lost - which is probably equivalent to the example of India as there are still Muslims on the Indian side of the border to this day (although with less death as a percentage of the removed population in the Serbian case, I believe.)
Absolute ethnic removal on the lines of emptying the Armenians out of Nagorno Karabakh? I think the last actual example of that would be the case of the Sudetenland and "east of the Oder" Germans post WWII. I can't off-hand think of a more recent instance.
Quote from: Agelastus on October 25, 2020, 06:27:51 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 24, 2020, 01:52:52 PM
When was the last time population exchanges were used as a way to solve a conflict?
Especially on ethnic rather than political lines...
I think the partition of India was the last time?
Way too many examples of this going poorly. And these Armenians could already have moved to Armenia proper for a better life. Strikes me as nice in theory but unlikely to happen even if the offer was there.
Croatia and Kosovo both saw half of the pre-conflict Serb population leave at the end of the conflict when the Serb side lost - which is probably equivalent to the example of India as there are still Muslims on the Indian side of the border to this day (although with less death as a percentage of the removed population in the Serbian case, I believe.)
Absolute ethnic removal on the lines of emptying the Armenians out of Nagorno Karabakh? I think the last actual example of that would be the case of the Sudetenland and "east of the Oder" Germans post WWII. I can't off-hand think of a more recent instance.
I believe that a certain level of population exchange took place in Cyprus in the 70s as well, with Turks and Greeks leaving each other's areas.
Quote from: The Larch on October 25, 2020, 06:36:12 AM
Quote from: Agelastus on October 25, 2020, 06:27:51 AM
Quote from: Tyr on October 24, 2020, 01:52:52 PM
When was the last time population exchanges were used as a way to solve a conflict?
Especially on ethnic rather than political lines...
I think the partition of India was the last time?
Way too many examples of this going poorly. And these Armenians could already have moved to Armenia proper for a better life. Strikes me as nice in theory but unlikely to happen even if the offer was there.
Croatia and Kosovo both saw half of the pre-conflict Serb population leave at the end of the conflict when the Serb side lost - which is probably equivalent to the example of India as there are still Muslims on the Indian side of the border to this day (although with less death as a percentage of the removed population in the Serbian case, I believe.)
Absolute ethnic removal on the lines of emptying the Armenians out of Nagorno Karabakh? I think the last actual example of that would be the case of the Sudetenland and "east of the Oder" Germans post WWII. I can't off-hand think of a more recent instance.
I believe that a certain level of population exchange took place in Cyprus in the 70s as well, with Turks and Greeks leaving each other's areas.
Yep, with lots of Constantinopolitan Greeks expelled or forced to leave earlier on in the officially-endorsed if not organized pogrom of Istanbul in 1955, over a false flag attack on Atatürk's tomb in Thessalonica.
Quote from: The Larch on October 25, 2020, 06:36:12 AM
I believe that a certain level of population exchange took place in Cyprus in the 70s as well, with Turks and Greeks leaving each other's areas.
I think it's happened in most of Europe to some extent at different points. All borders are somewhat fictional it's just that, over time, most of Europe has made their people fit their borders - normally through what we'd consider ethnic cleansing.
Arguably the population exchange by Turkey and Greece after the Turkish War of Independence (so after refugees fleeing Ataturk's army and the destruction of Smyrna) is an example that possibly avoided future conflict - it was mandated by the League of Nations and managed pretty successfully by two very damaged states. This is one of the examples Stathis Kalyvas has given of Greece being one of the first European countries to do something, over-reaching and collapsing (but that other countries then experience later and slightly differently).
Quote from: Agelastus on October 25, 2020, 06:27:51 AM
Absolute ethnic removal on the lines of emptying the Armenians out of Nagorno Karabakh? I think the last actual example of that would be the case of the Sudetenland and "east of the Oder" Germans post WWII. I can't off-hand think of a more recent instance.
Abkhazia did a pretty thorough ethnic cleansing with the help of Russia in 1990ies. That was actually an example of an ethnic minority expelling an ethnic majority, though they did have to slaughter 30,000 of them to increase the sense of urgency in evacuating.
Removal of Germans from Transylvania post-WW2 as well, comes to mind.
Some of them got "evicted" from Hungary as well but mostly it was a case of semi-voluntary hiding of German ancestry by changing last names. Lots of people still track and sort of celebrate their German ancestry there however, even if they don't really speak the language anymore or have any discernible cultural differences they keep.
It appears the war is over. We'll see, but there are first reports of Armenians "not surrendering but not winning" and declaring the end to the war.
From what I see, it's a great outcome for the Russian and Turkish geopolitical interests in the area.
I'm disappointed that there's an Armenia thread on Languish without Spellus in it. :glare:
Surprised Azerbaijan would let the Armenians sue for peace. They seemed committed to going in hard and nigh on wiping them out in NK. Russian pressure?
It seems like a reasonable enough agreement. Armenia did occupy some parts of Azerbaijan because of "border gore" reasons. It sounds like NK won't be taken by Azerbaijan, which is the only land Armenia has any kind of claim for. The downside seems to be that Armenia will now forever be reliant on Russia to guarantee the link to NK, which will be a hand permanently gripping their nutsack.
What I heard on Al Jazeera was Russian peacekeepers are flying in now to patrol Nagorna K. and the corridor link it to Armenia, but that Armenia forces will have to withdraw as part of the ceasefire deal.
So that's a big defeat/concession for the Armenians, in effect recognizing Azeri 'victory', hence the crowds in Yeravan going apeshit and trashing the government offices.
Don't know what the deal means for local Nagorna Armenia forces, do they have to withdraw too, are they too closely enmeshed with Armenian forces to be differentiated?
Right so risking an Marty analogy here ....
We have the country that hasn't recognized it's genocide carried out on a minority people, years later aiding another state in a war against the victims of said historical genocide. Though it's complicated by the victim minority having also ethnically cleansed other people from a territory.
This would be like a largely unapologetic West German* providing significant military aid to Egypt or Syria in the run up to the six-day war or 1973 war sufficient to possibly tip the balance in the Arab's favour before the UN and/or the US stepped in to stop the fighting.
* Or in this alternative reality, a significantly more independent and militarily much stronger East German, and yes I'm aware E.German military advisers played a small role in
Interesting video about the conflict on the frontline from this bbc news item, 9 min video worth a viewing:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54882564 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54882564)
State of conflict before ceasefire:
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/2D5D/production/_115331611_8df90093-d7d8-4155-b3b6-1eec24243853.jpg)
Things could gubadli for Armenia.
Quote from: Tyr on November 09, 2020, 06:54:07 PM
Surprised Azerbaijan would let the Armenians sue for peace. They seemed committed to going in hard and nigh on wiping them out in NK. Russian pressure?
Yes, I believe so.
Russia is trying to stop all the conflicts on its periphery, and this one has gone for too long. Someone shot down a Russian helicopter quite far from the war zone in an apparent attempt to thwart Russia's peacemaking efforts and pull it into the conflict. Instead, Russia upped the pressure and sent in the peacekeepers hours later.
Will see how it goes. But interesting to see if Armenians revolt against their current government which has allowed all this to happen.
Quote from: Tyr on November 09, 2020, 06:54:07 PM
Surprised Azerbaijan would let the Armenians sue for peace. They seemed committed to going in hard and nigh on wiping them out in NK. Russian pressure?
The Azeris shot down a Russian helicopter yeterday morning and despite immediate statements that it was an accident, I imagine that was part of it.
Crucially the Azeris now have a land corridor to Turkey.
I am just thinking, will future conflicts be mostly about drones? What stops a country from making, say several hundred thousand drones and dominating the battlefield with them alone?
Quote from: Monoriu on November 10, 2020, 08:46:11 PM
I am just thinking, will future conflicts be mostly about drones? What stops a country from making, say several hundred thousand drones and dominating the battlefield with them alone?
Counter-measures, I imagine? The trick is to not sit on your rusting Soviet equipment while your revanchist neighbor arms itself with the drones.
Quote from: DGuller on November 10, 2020, 08:48:33 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 10, 2020, 08:46:11 PM
I am just thinking, will future conflicts be mostly about drones? What stops a country from making, say several hundred thousand drones and dominating the battlefield with them alone?
Counter-measures, I imagine? The trick is to not sit on your rusting Soviet equipment while your revanchist neighbor arms itself with the drones.
Is the counter-measure for drones - drone-killer drones? :unsure:
Quote from: Monoriu on November 10, 2020, 08:46:11 PM
I am just thinking, will future conflicts be mostly about drones? What stops a country from making, say several hundred thousand drones and dominating the battlefield with them alone?
EMP?
Quote from: Monoriu on November 10, 2020, 08:46:11 PM
I am just thinking, will future conflicts be mostly about drones? What stops a country from making, say several hundred thousand drones and dominating the battlefield with them alone?
Can you disrupt the communication from the drone to the controller somehow?
Quote from: Valmy on November 10, 2020, 10:55:28 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 10, 2020, 08:46:11 PM
I am just thinking, will future conflicts be mostly about drones? What stops a country from making, say several hundred thousand drones and dominating the battlefield with them alone?
Can you disrupt the communication from the drone to the controller somehow?
Yeah, Electronic warfare.
Quote from: Valmy on November 10, 2020, 10:55:28 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 10, 2020, 08:46:11 PM
I am just thinking, will future conflicts be mostly about drones? What stops a country from making, say several hundred thousand drones and dominating the battlefield with them alone?
Can you disrupt the communication from the drone to the controller somehow?
https://liteye.com/products/counter-uas/auds/
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/06/30/these-are-7-anti-drone-weapons-us-military-plans-invest.html
French Military, iirc, has some success with hawks.
Quote from: Valmy on November 10, 2020, 10:55:28 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on November 10, 2020, 08:46:11 PM
I am just thinking, will future conflicts be mostly about drones? What stops a country from making, say several hundred thousand drones and dominating the battlefield with them alone?
Can you disrupt the communication from the drone to the controller somehow?
Sure. The Fritz-X and HS-293 "drone" bombs from WW2 sank the battleship Roma and severely damaged two other battleships and a bunch of cruisers and smaller ships in the Salerno campaign, but the Allies countered quickly with jammers and the threat was pretty much eliminated.
This is important:
Quote
Evidence of widespread atrocities emerges following Karabakh war
The Azerbaijani government has promised to prosecute any war crimes, but many are skeptical of its sincerity.
Ulkar Natiqqizi, Joshua Kucera Dec 9, 2020
(https://eurasianet.org/sites/default/files/styles/article/public/2020-12/EojuQUxW4AIAcU5.jpeg?itok=S83YmlUv)
Russian peacekeepers Russian peacekeepers search for unexploded ordinance in Nagorno-Karabakh (Russian military handout)
A steady stream of videos depicting shocking atrocities by Azerbaijani soldiers against Armenian civilians and prisoners of war has emerged on social media.
The videos, shot by soldiers and distributed on various Telegram news channels, depict a wide variety of torture, humiliations and mutilations of corpses. There have been several executions of captives shown, and at least two live beheadings.
The authenticity of most of the videos has yet to be confirmed, and the Azerbaijani government has promised to prosecute all such crimes. In a November 21 statement, the state prosecutor's office announced it was opening a criminal case to investigate reports of "insulting the bodies of Armenian servicemen killed during the fighting for the liberation of our lands, as well as inhumane treatment of captured Armenian servicemen."
"The perpetrators of such illegal acts will be identified and brought to justice," it continued. It added, however, that according to initial investigations "many videos were found to be fake."
A spokesperson for the prosecutor's office, Kanan Zeynalov, told Eurasianet on December 8 that the investigations were continuing. "It is too early to say anything today," Zeynalov said.
International human rights groups also are investigating. Human Rights Watch issued a report on December 2 on humiliations of captured Armenian soldiers, but it has not yet addressed the more serious atrocities. "Extrajudicial executions and despoiling dead are separate war crimes and we are still looking into it. It's complicated, as it's hard to verify the videos," the organization's associate director for Europe and Central Asia, Giorgi Gogia, told Eurasianet.
A smaller number of videos have emerged showing apparent Armenian atrocities against Azerbaijanis, including at least one execution. The Armenian authorities have not yet announced any criminal investigations into the reports. Gogia said Human Rights Watch also is investigating reports of Armenian atrocities against Azerbaijanis.
The steady drip of the videos has traumatized Armenians already reeling from their crushing loss in the 44-day war, in which Azerbaijan managed to take back a large part of the territories that it had lost in the last major war between the two sides in the 1990s.
"The videos of atrocities committed by the Azerbaijani armed forces against Armenian servicemen, as well as the mutilation of the bodies and photos circulating on social media, deepen the anxiety of family members [of current prisoners], the anxiety over the return of their relatives," a group of Armenian civil society groups wrote in a December 3 letter to the United Nations Commission on Human Rights.
The issue is being hotly discussed in Azerbaijan, especially following the release of the second live beheading video on December 7.
A large number of Azerbaijanis refuse to believe the videos are real and believe they are part of a negative PR campaign.
One prominent political analyst, Arastun Orujlu, wrote on Facebook that "personally, I am convinced that these videos are fake," part of a Russian-orchestrated campaign to discredit Azerbaijan. "It is an attempt to portray the victorious army of Azerbaijan to the world like a criminal gang. We must do our best to prevent this," he wrote.
Many other Azerbaijanis have been skeptical of the government's sincerity in its promise to appropriately prosecute the crimes and have demanded accountability in the process.
A group of civil society activists issued a statement calling on Azerbaijani prosecutors "treat the images on social media as a violation of international humanitarian law" while also asking the international community to pressure Armenia to do the same.
"I have never said that the Interior Ministry or the State Security Service should arrest anyone. But this is already a red line," wrote activist Ilkin Rustamzada on Facebook. "Anyone who films an Armenian being beheaded, or beheads him, should be severely punished. Anyone who puts an ISIS brand on the nation's war has to be punished."
One local NGO, the Baku Human Rights Club, is collecting videos of atrocities from both sides and is working with international partners to help authenticate them. "If [a video] isn't authentic then we need to know that it's not authentic," the group's chairman, Rasul Jafarov, told Eurasianet. "But if it is real, the prosecutor's office opened a criminal case, the videos need to be analyzed as part of that criminal case and those found guilty should be brought to justice."
Given the large number of videos that have emerged, and the fact that soldiers apparently felt comfortable enough to show off the atrocities, some analysts have said that the behavior was at least implicitly condoned by the authorities.
"These are widespread, consistent and systematic war crimes, tolerated or even encouraged by commanders," wrote Ryan O'Farrell, an independent military analyst who has closely followed open sources on this conflict, on Twitter.
"[ B]etween the number of videos, their frequency and the number of participants, it's impossible to not assume that the Azerbaijani state has given its tacit approval to these war crimes. These aren't 'bad apples.' This is systematic," O'Farrell added. "I'll believe otherwise when the Azerbaijani government arrests the hundreds of soldiers who proudly filmed their participation in executions, torture, beheadings and mutilations of civilians and POWs."
Some Azerbaijani analysts disagree.
"In order to protect the positive image of the country, the perpetrators need to be found and punished," Fuad Shahbaz, a political and military analyst, told Eurasianet. "Some foreign experts are skeptical, but I think that servicemen who took part in these videos will be punished. It may not be in two days, ten days, 20 days, but I think it will happen."
Still other Azerbaijanis have cheered the abuse of Armenians. Elvin Basqalli, a news presenter at the Azerbaijani network Space TV, wrote on Facebook that Armenians deserved revenge after crimes against Azerbaijanis, citing the Khojaly massacre of the first Karabakh war and the bombing of civilian targets in Ganja and Barda in this war.
"I appreciate such treatment of Armenians," Basqalli wrote. "If the Armenians had known at the time that they would be beheaded, they would not have committed such tragedies." Other Azerbaijanis objected and called for him to be fired from his post, but as of the time this piece was posted he remained in his job.
With reporting by Ani Mejlumyan.
They probably mean Azerbaidjan will add some more warcrimes to it's list. They'll raze anything Armenian and erase Armenian history from the region. Just like they've done before.
This is after all, in their minds, a jihad.
Can't say the Armenians are wrong in stating that this is just the continuation of genocide commenced in 1915.
*Bump*
I'm having trouble forming an informed opinion on what's gone down in Nagorno-Karabakh recently. As I understand it the Azerbaijanis have re-invaded, and won. The autonomous N-K administration has dissolved, and it seems that most of the Armenian population of the area is fleeing to Armenia proper.
But I have too many conflicting biases, but not really enough deep knowledge of the area, to decide whether this is a good or a bad thing.
-I have an underlying "Christian Armenia is good, muslim Azerbaijan is bad" sentiment, but that's obviously really biased.
-I also have a "Russians support Armenia, so Armenia is bad" thought which isn't any better.
-I don't like post-soviet frozen conflicts, so this one is actually over, which I guess is good.
Like I would have zero complaints if MOldova re-took Transnistria by force. But then obviously you hate to see people being killed.
-Azerbaijan has promised no reprisals against Armenian residents of N-K as it is incorporated back into Azerbaijan proper, yet still people are fleeing. So does this count as ethnic cleansing?
Anyone have any better thoughts than I?
I'm having conflicted thoughts as well. One the one hand, N-K situation is analogous to many others where Russia helped create frozen conflicts to fuck up some of their former republics. On the other hand, N-K seems to legitimately be a territory that belongs to the wrong country, and frankly Azerbaijan is a less sympathetic country than Armenia.
Whatever the merits, it seems clear that N-K is lost for Armenia for good, so hopefully what comes out of it is a normalization of relations between Armenia and some of its neighbors not named Russia. Armenia hasn't been exactly a success story as a country, but maybe with the endless conflict being over, it would orient itself away from Russia and towards the better future. Unlike Azerbaijan, it's at least trying to be a democracy.
Your thoughts are good IMO Beeb.
The only thing I would add right now is that the Armenian state, and therefore by extension the Armenian people, failed to honestly and frankly assess their geopolitical situation. No one is going to come riding to their rescue and they face an opponent with a much larger population and a considerable amount of gas wealth. A realist would have tried to come to an accomodation in order to cut their losses.
A rough analogy that came to mind is South Africa. Take a deal you don't like now instead of getting a worse deal later.
Quote from: DGuller on September 25, 2023, 04:32:08 PMOn the other hand, N-K seems to legitimately be a territory that belongs to the wrong country, and frankly Azerbaijan is a less sympathetic country than Armenia.
I mean you can make that argument about any number of areas of the former USSR. Historically speaking Russia has about as good a claim to Crimea as does Ukraine (which is to say - neither of them do - it belonged to the Tatars). The real basis though is that internationally recognized borders should not be changed by force, and although Armenia never formally recognized an independent Nagorno-Karabakh they clearly backed the separatists there.
But then for all of that, there's now thousands of people fleeing homes they've lived in for generations now as a result of the Azerbaijan victory which you definitely hate to see.
There's a film of Azeri soldiers beheading Armenian civilians. This is a pretty bad deal.
Quote from: Barrister on September 25, 2023, 04:41:07 PMQuote from: DGuller on September 25, 2023, 04:32:08 PMOn the other hand, N-K seems to legitimately be a territory that belongs to the wrong country, and frankly Azerbaijan is a less sympathetic country than Armenia.
I mean you can make that argument about any number of areas of the former USSR. Historically speaking Russia has about as good a claim to Crimea as does Ukraine (which is to say - neither of them do - it belonged to the Tatars). The real basis though is that internationally recognized borders should not be changed by force, and although Armenia never formally recognized an independent Nagorno-Karabakh they clearly backed the separatists there.
But then for all of that, there's now thousands of people fleeing homes they've lived in for generations now as a result of the Azerbaijan victory which you definitely hate to see.
As a general concept, I think the idea that "borders should not be changed by force no matter what" is not viable in the long term. The proponents will say that all such conflicts should be resolved diplomatically, but diplomacy without leverage is just pointless chatter. The threat of war is a type of leverage that is necessary for diplomacy to mean something. If you're outlawing war, you're also outlawing effective diplomacy, because there is no incentive for either side to give.
What I'm worried about is that decades of leaving conflicts fester indefinitely will at some point explode in acts of extreme atrocities when one side perceives a narrow window of opportunity to finally settle a matter.
I don't find it conflicting at all :huh:
The Azeris invaded and there's now floods of Armenians fleeing what looks like basically ethnic cleansing.
Edit: And worth noting Aliyev has form for referring to Armenia proper as "Western Azerbaijan".
The Turks are happy. They are pleased to see what absolutely didn't happen in 1915 not happing again NK.
Story floating around Russian social media (I know.) is the peace keepers who were killed had just been shown a massacred village and the azeris were covering it up.
Even if this story is untrue it certainly seems there's something up. Predictable and depressing. With russia busy nato really should get more interested.
There needs to be peace keepers from countries interested in peace.
We shouldn't have any doubt that there is / going to be ethnic cleansing. I still recall from a decade ago the Azeri officer who planted an axe into an Armenian officer's head in Budapest while he was sleeping being received like a national celebrity when Orban "transferred" him from a Hungarian prison. Even if official policy will be not to do stuff, good luck controlling the boots on tbe ground.
Quote from: Tamas on September 26, 2023, 03:48:04 AMWe shouldn't have any doubt that there is / going to be ethnic cleansing. I still recall from a decade ago the Azeri officer who planted an axe into an Armenian officer's head in Budapest while he was sleeping being received like a national celebrity when Orban "transferred" him from a Hungarian prison. Even if official policy will be not to do stuff, good luck controlling the boots on tbe ground.
Yes, there are very good reasons why those thousands are fleeing.
Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2023, 06:58:04 PMThe Turks are happy. They are pleased to see what absolutely didn't happen in 1915 not happing again NK.
The other weird thing I learned about Turco-Armenian relations recently was that not only do the Turks continue to deny the genocide, but they also violently despise Armenians in general. I guess maybe that shouldn't be surprising but somehow it surprised me? Like I was reading about a Turkish dude who found out he was actually an Armenian by ethnicity--apparently Turkey contains a lot of 'crypto-Armenians'--and when he decided to write a book about it, his other fake-Turk Armenian relatives threatened to kill him if he went ahead and published it, so great their shame would be for being exposed as Armenians. :wacko:
The Turkish denial has always felt like the ridiculous 'ol neo-Nazi "Jews are all evil and should die...but the Holocaust is a hoax" line.
I've been reading the Pdox forums lately and there is plenty of justifying what the Azeris are doing. :yuk:
I'm mostly ignorant of the whole Turkic - Armenian conflict (other than the genocide).
Anyone care to provide an outline of the core of the conflict?
Quote from: Razgovory on September 26, 2023, 08:40:55 PMI've been reading the Pdox forums lately and there is plenty of justifying what the Azeris are doing. :yuk:
That's mad - why? Who? Is it just lots of Ottoman fanbois? :huh:
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 26, 2023, 08:46:47 PMQuote from: Razgovory on September 26, 2023, 08:40:55 PMI've been reading the Pdox forums lately and there is plenty of justifying what the Azeris are doing. :yuk:
That's mad - why? Who? Is it just lots of Ottoman fanbois? :huh:
A lot of "Well the Armenians made a lot of bad decisions" and "International borders are inviolate. The Azeris have every right to do what they want in their own country". It's bullshit.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 26, 2023, 08:46:47 PMQuote from: Razgovory on September 26, 2023, 08:40:55 PMI've been reading the Pdox forums lately and there is plenty of justifying what the Azeris are doing. :yuk:
That's mad - why? Who? Is it just lots of Ottoman fanbois? :huh:
Let it be a warning to Russia's allies.
Quote from: mongers on September 26, 2023, 05:16:32 AMQuote from: Tamas on September 26, 2023, 03:48:04 AMWe shouldn't have any doubt that there is / going to be ethnic cleansing. I still recall from a decade ago the Azeri officer who planted an axe into an Armenian officer's head in Budapest while he was sleeping being received like a national celebrity when Orban "transferred" him from a Hungarian prison. Even if official policy will be not to do stuff, good luck controlling the boots on tbe ground.
Yes, there are very good reasons why those thousands are fleeing.
I don't believe people will be surprised by the inevitable ethnic cleansing. Armenians have been written off, again.
The pro-Azeri stances, on Paradox fora, surprise me a bit more.
What I don't get about the conflict is what they're really fighting over seems so worthless - a bunch of poor mountain valleys. What am I missing? Are these valleys ALSO highly strategic trade corridors? Do they have giant natural gas reserves?
From my understanding, Nagorno-Karabakh (spelling?) is an Armenian-majority enclave within Azerbaijan. In late 80s/early 90s they wanted to break away from Azerbaijan/join Armenia, but Azerbaijan wouldn't have any of it. Fighting ensues.
From my understanding it's based primarily on ethnic/religious divisions, not strategical value of territory.
Quote from: Syt on September 27, 2023, 01:48:30 AMFrom my understanding, Nagorno-Karabakh (spelling?) is an Armenian-majority enclave within Azerbaijan. In late 80s/early 90s they wanted to break away from Azerbaijan/join Armenia, but Azerbaijan wouldn't have any of it. Fighting ensues.
From my understanding it's based primarily on ethnic/religious divisions, not strategical value of territory.
Wiki says there was fighting in early part of 20th century and then Soviet Era frozen the conflict.
Quote from: garbon on September 27, 2023, 02:23:53 AMQuote from: Syt on September 27, 2023, 01:48:30 AMFrom my understanding, Nagorno-Karabakh (spelling?) is an Armenian-majority enclave within Azerbaijan. In late 80s/early 90s they wanted to break away from Azerbaijan/join Armenia, but Azerbaijan wouldn't have any of it. Fighting ensues.
From my understanding it's based primarily on ethnic/religious divisions, not strategical value of territory.
Wiki says there was fighting in early part of 20th century and then Soviet Era frozen the conflict.
So basically they were having ethnic blood feuds and the Soviets put them in timeout for the 20th century?
Quote from: Hamilcar on September 27, 2023, 02:30:13 AMQuote from: garbon on September 27, 2023, 02:23:53 AMQuote from: Syt on September 27, 2023, 01:48:30 AMFrom my understanding, Nagorno-Karabakh (spelling?) is an Armenian-majority enclave within Azerbaijan. In late 80s/early 90s they wanted to break away from Azerbaijan/join Armenia, but Azerbaijan wouldn't have any of it. Fighting ensues.
From my understanding it's based primarily on ethnic/religious divisions, not strategical value of territory.
Wiki says there was fighting in early part of 20th century and then Soviet Era frozen the conflict.
So basically they were having ethnic blood feuds and the Soviets put them in timeout for the 20th century?
More Stalin took it off Armenia and gave it to Azerbaijan specifically to encourage the ethnic blood feuds and make sure if shit did go down that Armenia with all it's western links would be on the back foot.
The more you read about this stuff the more depressing it becomes - Armenians in Azerbaijan used to (20th century. Further back they were the majority of course) be a large minority across the country specifically in major cities and some other areas like azerbaijans exclave. Today they number 217 :mellow:
Worse Azerbaijan has a policy of deliberately destroying any record Armenians were ever there. Razing ancient graveyards and churches.
Quote from: Josquius on September 27, 2023, 02:45:07 AMQuote from: Hamilcar on September 27, 2023, 02:30:13 AMQuote from: garbon on September 27, 2023, 02:23:53 AMQuote from: Syt on September 27, 2023, 01:48:30 AMFrom my understanding, Nagorno-Karabakh (spelling?) is an Armenian-majority enclave within Azerbaijan. In late 80s/early 90s they wanted to break away from Azerbaijan/join Armenia, but Azerbaijan wouldn't have any of it. Fighting ensues.
From my understanding it's based primarily on ethnic/religious divisions, not strategical value of territory.
Wiki says there was fighting in early part of 20th century and then Soviet Era frozen the conflict.
So basically they were having ethnic blood feuds and the Soviets put them in timeout for the 20th century?
More Stalin took it off Armenia and gave it to Azerbaijan specifically to encourage the ethnic blood feuds and make sure if shit did go down that Armenia with all it's western links would be on the back foot.
Ah, he copied the British! :bowler:
Le Monde says already one third of the Armenian population has been "exiled", i.e 42,500 people.
https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2023/09/27/haut-karabakh-l-azerbaidjan-annonce-que-192-de-ses-soldats-sont-morts-dans-l-offensive-militaire-42-500-armeniens-exiles_6191195_3210.html (https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2023/09/27/haut-karabakh-l-azerbaidjan-annonce-que-192-de-ses-soldats-sont-morts-dans-l-offensive-militaire-42-500-armeniens-exiles_6191195_3210.html)
Quote from: Hamilcar on September 27, 2023, 01:25:58 AMWhat I don't get about the conflict is what they're really fighting over seems so worthless - a bunch of poor mountain valleys. What am I missing? Are these valleys ALSO highly strategic trade corridors? Do they have giant natural gas reserves?
The same could be said of Switzerland.
Quote from: Hamilcar on September 27, 2023, 01:25:58 AMWhat I don't get about the conflict is what they're really fighting over seems so worthless - a bunch of poor mountain valleys. What am I missing? Are these valleys ALSO highly strategic trade corridors? Do they have giant natural gas reserves?
Mountainous areas the ones likeliest to have numerous intermingled ethnic enclaves and every language wants its own army.
Quote from: mongers on September 27, 2023, 08:29:01 AMQuote from: Hamilcar on September 27, 2023, 01:25:58 AMWhat I don't get about the conflict is what they're really fighting over seems so worthless - a bunch of poor mountain valleys. What am I missing? Are these valleys ALSO highly strategic trade corridors? Do they have giant natural gas reserves?
The same could be said of Switzerland.
So the Alps ARE a highly strategic trade corridor.
Ireland is just a soggy swamp off europes coast, the Netherlands a pile of sand at the mouth of the Rhein, Thailand a scorching hot jungle of deadly death....
They're still home to their people.
Total aside - but that description of Thailand again has me thinking you have slightly eccentric views of other countries :lol: :P
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 27, 2023, 10:54:57 AMTotal aside - but that description of Thailand again has me thinking you have slightly eccentric views of other countries :lol: :P
But you agree with the other two descriptions? :lol:
Quote from: HVC on September 27, 2023, 11:00:41 AMBut you agree with the other two descriptions? :lol:
They're not a million miles off :ph34r:
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 27, 2023, 11:08:56 AMQuote from: HVC on September 27, 2023, 11:00:41 AMBut you agree with the other two descriptions? :lol:
They're not a million miles off :ph34r:
Thailand is a beachy paradise, albeit one with a lady boy minefield :D
Quote from: Josquius on September 27, 2023, 10:39:16 AMthe Netherlands a pile of sand at the mouth of the Rhein,
Not true. It's only about 47-48% sand.
And the rest concrete? :p
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 27, 2023, 10:54:57 AMTotal aside - but that description of Thailand again has me thinking you have slightly eccentric views of other countries :lol: :P
The descriptions being ridiculous and over the top was the point.
But humid scorching jungles are the country's main natural offering.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 26, 2023, 08:46:47 PMQuote from: Razgovory on September 26, 2023, 08:40:55 PMI've been reading the Pdox forums lately and there is plenty of justifying what the Azeris are doing. :yuk:
That's mad - why? Who? Is it just lots of Ottoman fanbois? :huh:
An example that I saw today
"This is a direct act of ethnic cleansing and deportation, of which we have been warning the international community for a long time," the Armenian prime minister claimed
YEREVAN, September 28. /TASS/. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan believes that no Armenian population will be left in Nagorno-Karabakh in the coming days.
"Analysis shows that in the coming days there will be no more Armenians left in Nagorno-Karabakh. This is a direct act of ethnic cleansing and deportation, of which we have been warning the international community for a long time," he said at a government meeting.
Like, huh? The Azeri army crosses over the demarcation line and the next minute the bulk of Armenian population decides they don't want to live under Azerbaijan who THEY ARE CERTAIN will kill them all, just like their own parents killed and displaced all the Azeri people in Artsakh.
I can see the point of leaving. I probably would, too, if I were living there. But the rhetoric. Like, can you get any more pathetic.
When you make predictions that you are certain you will make true on your own accord, before anyone else has a chance to do it for you. That's not a particularly great way of communication.
Genocide, pah. These guys live in their own world, they now suffer as victims exactly what they inflicted as perpetrators before and what they dream of doing again as soon as they get the chance.
Pashinyan's declaration that "no more Armenians will be left" is an implied threat that if anyone who actually wants to stay, Pashinyan will wash his hands of those persons and do nothing for them. In German we call such statements "Armutszeugnis". He's not even trying. He wants everyone to leave because he doesn't want the bother of trying to engage with Azerbaijan over the rights of any Armenians who want to stay against recommendations.
1000 or 2000 years of history of Armenians in Karabakh, what is that worth now? Nothing, not in its eyes? No talk of trying to resolve this, no talk of a better future for Armenians in Karabakh in the indeterminate future. Last time we had such doomy declarations was in 1945.
Was the argument about history ever sincere? Did they actually think the history of their people in that place was a thing of value? Or was it always just a fig leaf to hide their belief in the normative power of the gun? The history of the place, suddenly it's not worth anything. It's only worth something when you can stand on it, with a gun in hand. When the gun is gone, who cares about the history, everyone leave, burn everything, and everyone who doesn't leave deserves the scorn of the people.
How about he says openly, what he wants? "Please everyone leave, because our neighbors whom we genocided in the 90s are the devil, and I don't want to deal with the aftermath if any of you disagree now or in the future. Please make this easier for me and don't stay. Please let this be forever, don't ever go there again, don't ask me to think of a future for you. It's too much bother. Just flush the last 2000 years of history in Karabakh down the toilet, forget they ever happened, forget your forefathers were part of that."
I am not going to follow this thread any more. So disgusted.
:x