Armenia-Azerbaijan War

[Tamas]

Britain was literally allied with Stalin at one point but we don't go all "well at one hand, but on the other hand" over that do we?

But I don't think either side are Hitler/Stalin level or that British interests are so desperately engaged as they were in WW2.

If I'm honest my natural position would be to be more suspicious of Putin given that he's recently invaded a European country and seized their territory and is still fighting a guerrilla war in that country (especially because I've been to Ukraine - and Georgia - a few times and like it a lot).

But I don't know enough and I'm not engaged enough in it to really have an opinion. I really want to go to Armenia and only kind of want to go to Azerbaijan, and Armenia had a recent "revolution" while Azerbaijan  have a comedy dynastic kleptocracy. So I suppose given that plus the Russia factor, I'd lean Armenia.

If it is a nefarious plot by Putin then it is certainly beyond my comprehension, scheming to make Armenia defend Karabagh and their civilians there as opposed to... whatever Armenia would do without Putin's scheming.

[Tamas]

BBC confirms this video of hand-tied Armenians executed by Azeris as genuine:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54645254


But let's not take sides, less we risk finding ourselves by accident on the side Russia prefers.

[Tamas]

Britain was literally allied with Stalin at one point but we don't go all "well at one hand, but on the other hand" over that do we?

But I don't think either side are Hitler/Stalin level or that British interests are so desperately engaged as they were in WW2.

Oh and here that was kind of my point really: When our country fought a defensive war for dear life, then allying with Putin squared was fine. But when somebody else fights for dear life and they happen to be traditional allies of Russia because nobody else would support them in a sea of hostile tribes and religion, then oh no, that's inexcusable and they must carry half the blame for being attacked.

[Tamas]

It would seem simpler, faster, and cheaper to pay every Armenian in Nagorno Karabakh say, $100,000 or even $500,000 to move to Armenia or Michigan.  There are about 144,000 Armenians living there, and at $100,000 each that would amount to a cost of a bit under $15 billion.  That's the cost of maybe 7,000 tanks or APCs, 500 or so of which have been destroyed already.  Drones and missiles are probably a million or so, and a thousand or more have been used or lost in the campaign to date.

Yes, homeland, etc, blah blah.  It's still a fucking insane war that costs far more than anything that could be gained could be worth.  Does Azerbaijan really want to pay buckets of blood for a region that will just suicide-bomb them for the next 25 years?

PSA:  my best friend is Armenian-American, and this is suggested by him.  His grandma made the best baklava ever and convinced me that it is an Armenian dish, no matter what the Turks, Arabs, or Greeks say.

Based on listening to news the last five years or so makes me think being a homeless refuge/migrant is not all that you are trying to make it out to be.

[grumbler]

Britain was literally allied with Stalin at one point but we don't go all "well at one hand, but on the other hand" over that do we?

But I don't think either side are Hitler/Stalin level or that British interests are so desperately engaged as they were in WW2.

Oh and here that was kind of my point really: When our country fought a defensive war for dear life, then allying with Putin squared was fine. But when somebody else fights for dear life and they happen to be traditional allies of Russia because nobody else would support them in a sea of hostile tribes and religion, then oh no, that's inexcusable and they must carry half the blame for being attacked.

  This screed seems to be 100% against a man made of straw.

[grumbler]

It would seem simpler, faster, and cheaper to pay every Armenian in Nagorno Karabakh say, $100,000 or even $500,000 to move to Armenia or Michigan.  There are about 144,000 Armenians living there, and at $100,000 each that would amount to a cost of a bit under $15 billion.  That's the cost of maybe 7,000 tanks or APCs, 500 or so of which have been destroyed already.  Drones and missiles are probably a million or so, and a thousand or more have been used or lost in the campaign to date.

Yes, homeland, etc, blah blah.  It's still a fucking insane war that costs far more than anything that could be gained could be worth.  Does Azerbaijan really want to pay buckets of blood for a region that will just suicide-bomb them for the next 25 years?

PSA:  my best friend is Armenian-American, and this is suggested by him.  His grandma made the best baklava ever and convinced me that it is an Armenian dish, no matter what the Turks, Arabs, or Greeks say.

Based on listening to news the last five years or so makes me think being a homeless refuge/migrant is not all that you are trying to make it out to be.

Can you quote back to me that part where I talk about what it is like being a homeless refuge/migrant?  I can't remember saying a word about it.

[Tamas]

I just don't see how being helped by Russia (which I don't actually know if the case here, are they being actively supplied/supported right now?) to defend yourself makes you shoulder part of the blame for being attacked.

[Legbiter]

The Armenians seem on paper to be hilariously outmanned and outgunned with their crappy Soviet-era kit compared to the Azeris with their fancy modern stuff.  On the other hand the region is mountainous and the Armenians are under no illusions about what will happen to the local civilians if the invasion succeeds. 

It's also difficult to find any good news sources about what's happening on the ground. It's either obvious propaganda or some generic account by a journalist who's at home in his pajamas logged into Twitter. As far as I can tell the war is a mixture of trench warfare, artillery duels and drone strikes. Apparently the Azeris are using a lot of Syrian mercenaries as cannon fodder via Turkey.

[Tamas]

It would seem simpler, faster, and cheaper to pay every Armenian in Nagorno Karabakh say, $100,000 or even $500,000 to move to Armenia or Michigan.  There are about 144,000 Armenians living there, and at $100,000 each that would amount to a cost of a bit under $15 billion.  That's the cost of maybe 7,000 tanks or APCs, 500 or so of which have been destroyed already.  Drones and missiles are probably a million or so, and a thousand or more have been used or lost in the campaign to date.

Yes, homeland, etc, blah blah.  It's still a fucking insane war that costs far more than anything that could be gained could be worth.  Does Azerbaijan really want to pay buckets of blood for a region that will just suicide-bomb them for the next 25 years?

PSA:  my best friend is Armenian-American, and this is suggested by him.  His grandma made the best baklava ever and convinced me that it is an Armenian dish, no matter what the Turks, Arabs, or Greeks say.

Based on listening to news the last five years or so makes me think being a homeless refuge/migrant is not all that you are trying to make it out to be.

Can you quote back to me that part where I talk about what it is like being a homeless refuge/migrant?  I can't remember saying a word about it.

Fine so the plan would be that Armenia and perhaps Azerbaijan pays this $100k bill per Armenian in the region to be settled in the US? I think we can also assume the US would play ball as IIRC you can get a greencard if you invest 100k in the country, so make it say $150k each that buys them a greencard, some passive income, and covers the rent.

What if some Armenians don't want to go? Would there be a % where Armenia should feel inclined to defend its citizens there and reject handing the region over? What happens to the supposedly millions of dollars paid to those who did agree to move, does it have to be refunded to pay for the shooting war to protect those who stay? If they don't get protected by Armenia, can Armenia give some reassurance to its remaining citizens that they would not be sold to another country as part of a larger arrangement?

If Azerbaijan foots some of the bill and some Armenians remain do they get to claim their investment back from Armenia, or would they get to invoice it to the remaining Armenians in the region? Do they get the right to get rid of the remaining Armenians, and if they attempt without just cause to remove or kill them, will Armenia be allowed to launch a now offensive war to try and protect them?

If Armenia does get a justified offensive war to protect hose who stayed after the financial transaction, should that be preceded with an arrangement to pay $150k to each Azeris in the region?

Etc. It's an idea I'd personally jump on if I lived there and ever offered, but otherwise grandma-worthily naive.

[Tamas]

The Armenians seem on paper to be hilariously outmanned and outgunned with their crappy Soviet-era kit compared to the Azeris with their fancy modern stuff.  On the other hand the region is mountainous and the Armenians are under no illusions about what will happen to the local civilians if the invasion succeeds. 

It's also difficult to find any good news sources about what's happening on the ground. It's either obvious propaganda or some generic account by a journalist who's at home in his pajamas logged into Twitter. As far as I can tell the war is a mixture of trench warfare, artillery duels and drone strikes. Apparently the Azeris are using a lot of Syrian mercenaries as cannon fodder via Turkey.

By the sound of it here, that is damning enough to blame half of this on them.

[DGuller]

I just don't see how being helped by Russia (which I don't actually know if the case here, are they being actively supplied/supported right now?) to defend yourself makes you shoulder part of the blame for being attacked.

In this conflict, I can very much believe that Russia wants to be no part of it, and is probably annoyed that it has to deal with it.  In the first conflict, Armenia was not defending itself.  I believe that neither side was an aggressor, it was just a long-frozen conflict that thawed, but it's hard to make Armenia out as a defender in the first war.

[Tamas]

I just don't see how being helped by Russia (which I don't actually know if the case here, are they being actively supplied/supported right now?) to defend yourself makes you shoulder part of the blame for being attacked.

In this conflict, I can very much believe that Russia wants to be no part of it, and is probably annoyed that it has to deal with it.  In the first conflict, Armenia was not defending itself.  I believe that neither side was an aggressor, it was just a long-frozen conflict that thawed, but it's hard to make Armenia out as a defender in the first war.

Well, until I hear about an Armenian axing down a sleeping man and becoming a national hero for it, and see a BBC-confirmed video of Armenians executing Azeri POWs, I'll be siding with the Armenians. Not everything has to be grey.

[Legbiter]

By the sound of it here, that is damning enough to blame half of this on them.

Yeah. According to this account the Armenians are badly losing the war.

Four weeks into the war, Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh face a military calamity. Azerbaijan's drones and artillery have whittled them down, forcing a steady retreat. Unable to effectively counterattack or replace its losses, Armenia's military has ceded considerable ground.

Although Azerbaijan's early offensives did not result in significant gains, over the past two weeks they have captured a substantial amount of territory south of Stepanakert and along the Iranian border. Now Armenian forces are under threat of being cut off entirely as the Lachin corridor, linking Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia proper, is within range of Azerbaijani artillery. It is possible that Azerbaijan will capture this critical supply line within days, or at least begin to interdict it. At the time of this writing Armenian forces are trying to stabilize the battlefield and repel further Azerbaijani advances towards Lachin. The battle line is seesawing as fighting intensifies in this area.

Having seized Jabrayil, Hadrut and Fizuli, Azerbaijan's military has advanced west towards the Hakari river valley and turned north. The war is not over, but it is clear that Armenia has no way to reverse such gains, or reconstitute its substantial losses; digging in will place its forces under siege. Consequently, Baku can already claim a significant political victory based on battlefield performance and territory brought back under its control, though there is no sign it intends to stop its advance.

The military balance has long favored Azerbaijan, which holds qualitative and quantitative superiority over Armenia. For decades, Baku has poured money from energy exports into a much more modernized military, buying a host of capabilities from Russia, Turkey, and Israel.

Armenian forces' were unprepared for armed drones and loitering munitions, which Azerbaijan began using to great effect, destroying Armenian armored fighting vehicles, air defense systems, and targeting everything that could be found in the open across the line of control. Fielding dated air defenses, in relatively small numbers, and with armored equipment deployed in revetments that were largely exposed to air attack, Armenian forces had not adapted to Azerbaijan's capabilities.

https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-armenias-military-position-in-nagorno-karabakh-grows-precarious

[Valmy]

It's the Caucasus, dude. But just because the basic premise is idiocy it doesn't mean that both sides are equally wrong. If the other side is hell-bent on ethnic cleansing you out of your home I don't think "yeah whatever just avoid war" is a solution.

Wanting an immediate end to a war is not a neutral view when one side has thus far been unsuccessful in their efforts to change the status quo.

I don't wish ill on the Azeris but they need to stop. If they think the world is just going to do nothing while they engage in a slowmotion conquest they are mistaken. Even if they eventually win they will pay dearly for this.

[grumbler]

I just don't see how being helped by Russia (which I don't actually know if the case here, are they being actively supplied/supported right now?) to defend yourself makes you shoulder part of the blame for being attacked.

No one seems to be arguing that they should shoulder any part of the blame.  Who are you arguing against?