Armenia-Azerbaijan War

[grumbler]

Fine so the plan would be that Armenia and perhaps Azerbaijan pays this $100k bill per Armenian in the region to be settled in the US? I think we can also assume the US would play ball as IIRC you can get a greencard if you invest 100k in the country, so make it say $150k each that buys them a greencard, some passive income, and covers the rent.

Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan could afford to pay more than a token amount into this fund, but their sponsors and the rest of the world community could chip in.  It's not much money by global standards.   They'd go to the US as refugees, so no investment money needed.  They could also go to Armenia as refugees, but with money to start over.

What if some Armenians don't want to go? Would there be a % where Armenia should feel inclined to defend its citizens there and reject handing the region over? What happens to the supposedly millions of dollars paid to those who did agree to move, does it have to be refunded to pay for the shooting war to protect those who stay? If they don't get protected by Armenia, can Armenia give some reassurance to its remaining citizens that they would not be sold to another country as part of a larger arrangement?

Anyone who wants to stay and become a citizen of Azerbaijan is welcome to.  I don't foresee large numbers of remainers, given the deal they are being offered, but there would be some, I suppose.  Armenia would have nothing more to say there.

If Azerbaijan foots some of the bill and some Armenians remain do they get to claim their investment back from Armenia, or would they get to invoice it to the remaining Armenians in the region? Do they get the right to get rid of the remaining Armenians, and if they attempt without just cause to remove or kill them, will Armenia be allowed to launch a now offensive war to try and protect them?

I don't know what any of this means.  Armenia would have no further say in Azerbaijan.

If Armenia does get a justified offensive war to protect hose who stayed after the financial transaction, should that be preceded with an arrangement to pay $150k to each Azeris in the region?

I have no idea what this means.  I don't propose paying any Azeris.

Etc. It's an idea I'd personally jump on if I lived there and ever offered, but otherwise grandma-worthily naive.

I'm guessing you don't "get" the whole idea of thought experiments.  It isn't "naive" to propose a thought experiment where the vast expense of a war goes instead into avoiding the need for it.  If anything, it is grandma-worthy naïve to think that I am in a position to actually offer such a plan!

[Admiral Yi]

It shouldn't belong to anyone but it's people. The soviet authorities are responsible for dividing the map in this way, likely deliberately as they wanted to mix things up and stop strong united ethnic states

My understanding is Nogorno-whatchamacallit is an enthnic enclave surrounded by Azeri-inhabited territory.  If the Soviets purposely fucked with the map, what could the border have been that didn't either strand Armenians or Azeris on the wrong side?

[DGuller]

I have to say, sometimes I think the only way to solve the conflicts like these is through population transfers, in theory.  Without such transfers, one side will always be waiting for time when they have an upper hand to revise the status quo, which is what Azeris did after their defeat in the first war.  The problem is that "population transfers" is often a euphemism for genocide.  Has there been any successful population transfer where conflicts were resolved by economic incentives to do population transfers?

[The Brain]

I have to say, sometimes I think the only way to solve the conflicts like these is through population transfers, in theory.  Without such transfers, one side will always be waiting for time when they have an upper hand to revise the status quo, which is what Azeris did after their defeat in the first war.  The problem is that "population transfers" is often a euphemism for genocide.  Has there been any successful population transfer where conflicts were resolved by economic incentives to do population transfers?

If one side is so horrible that the other side's population chooses to flee almost to a man then the open wound will scar over in time. For instance Finnish Karelia after WW2. Granted the incentives went way beyond ecomonics for sure, even if the economic incentive to flee in itself was quite considerable.

[Josquius]

When was the last time population exchanges were used as a way to solve a conflict?
Especially on ethnic rather than political lines...
I think the partition of India was the last time?
Way too many examples of this going poorly. And these Armenians could already have moved to Armenia proper for a better life. Strikes me as nice in theory but unlikely to happen even if the offer was there.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I have to say, sometimes I think the only way to solve the conflicts like these is through population transfers, in theory.  Without such transfers, one side will always be waiting for time when they have an upper hand to revise the status quo, which is what Azeris did after their defeat in the first war.  The problem is that "population transfers" is often a euphemism for genocide.  Has there been any successful population transfer where conflicts were resolved by economic incentives to do population transfers?

If one side is so horrible that the other side's population chooses to flee almost to a man then the open wound will scar over in time. For instance Finnish Karelia after WW2. Granted the incentives went way beyond ecomonics for sure, even if the economic incentive to flee in itself was quite considerable.

that's going to be a bit hard with one side calling this basically a jihad and being helped by a country that has genocided a million+ of the other side while refusing to even acknowledge that fact and even revelling in said genocide (as evidenced in the ongoing conflict with the Kurds where the Turks regularly made threats to go Armenian on them).

[DGuller]

The more I follow this conflict, the more I have to sympathize with Armenians.  Azeris and Turks are definitely not good guys here.  What a shame that Israel is supplying Azeris with drones that pretty much pulverize everything Armernian that's on the surface.

[Agelastus]

When was the last time population exchanges were used as a way to solve a conflict?
Especially on ethnic rather than political lines...
I think the partition of India was the last time?
Way too many examples of this going poorly. And these Armenians could already have moved to Armenia proper for a better life. Strikes me as nice in theory but unlikely to happen even if the offer was there.

Croatia and Kosovo both saw half of the pre-conflict Serb population leave at the end of the conflict when the Serb side lost - which is probably equivalent to the example of India as there are still Muslims on the Indian side of the border to this day (although with less death as a percentage of the removed population in the Serbian case, I believe.)

Absolute ethnic removal on the lines of emptying the Armenians out of Nagorno Karabakh? I think the last actual example of that would be the case of the Sudetenland and "east of the Oder" Germans post WWII. I can't off-hand think of a more recent instance.

[The Larch]

When was the last time population exchanges were used as a way to solve a conflict?
Especially on ethnic rather than political lines...
I think the partition of India was the last time?
Way too many examples of this going poorly. And these Armenians could already have moved to Armenia proper for a better life. Strikes me as nice in theory but unlikely to happen even if the offer was there.

Croatia and Kosovo both saw half of the pre-conflict Serb population leave at the end of the conflict when the Serb side lost - which is probably equivalent to the example of India as there are still Muslims on the Indian side of the border to this day (although with less death as a percentage of the removed population in the Serbian case, I believe.)

Absolute ethnic removal on the lines of emptying the Armenians out of Nagorno Karabakh? I think the last actual example of that would be the case of the Sudetenland and "east of the Oder" Germans post WWII. I can't off-hand think of a more recent instance.

I believe that a certain level of population exchange took place in Cyprus in the 70s as well, with Turks and Greeks leaving each other's areas.

[Duque de Bragança]

When was the last time population exchanges were used as a way to solve a conflict?
Especially on ethnic rather than political lines...
I think the partition of India was the last time?
Way too many examples of this going poorly. And these Armenians could already have moved to Armenia proper for a better life. Strikes me as nice in theory but unlikely to happen even if the offer was there.

Croatia and Kosovo both saw half of the pre-conflict Serb population leave at the end of the conflict when the Serb side lost - which is probably equivalent to the example of India as there are still Muslims on the Indian side of the border to this day (although with less death as a percentage of the removed population in the Serbian case, I believe.)

Absolute ethnic removal on the lines of emptying the Armenians out of Nagorno Karabakh? I think the last actual example of that would be the case of the Sudetenland and "east of the Oder" Germans post WWII. I can't off-hand think of a more recent instance.

I believe that a certain level of population exchange took place in Cyprus in the 70s as well, with Turks and Greeks leaving each other's areas.

Yep, with lots of Constantinopolitan Greeks expelled or forced to leave earlier on in the officially-endorsed if not organized pogrom of Istanbul in 1955, over a false flag attack on Atatürk's tomb in Thessalonica.

[Sheilbh]

I believe that a certain level of population exchange took place in Cyprus in the 70s as well, with Turks and Greeks leaving each other's areas.

I think it's happened in most of Europe to some extent at different points. All borders are somewhat fictional it's just that, over time, most of Europe has made their people fit their borders - normally through what we'd consider ethnic cleansing.

Arguably the population exchange by Turkey and Greece after the Turkish War of Independence (so after refugees fleeing Ataturk's army and the destruction of Smyrna) is an example that possibly avoided future conflict - it was mandated by the League of Nations and managed pretty successfully by two very damaged states. This is one of the examples Stathis Kalyvas has given of Greece being one of the first European countries to do something, over-reaching and collapsing (but that other countries then experience later and slightly differently).

[DGuller]

Absolute ethnic removal on the lines of emptying the Armenians out of Nagorno Karabakh? I think the last actual example of that would be the case of the Sudetenland and "east of the Oder" Germans post WWII. I can't off-hand think of a more recent instance.

Abkhazia did a pretty thorough ethnic cleansing with the help of Russia in 1990ies.  That was actually an example of an ethnic minority expelling an ethnic majority, though they did have to slaughter 30,000 of them to increase the sense of urgency in evacuating.

[Tamas]

Removal of Germans from Transylvania post-WW2 as well, comes to mind.

Some of them got "evicted" from Hungary as well but mostly it was a case of semi-voluntary hiding of German ancestry by changing last names. Lots of people still track and sort of celebrate their German ancestry there however, even if they don't really speak the language anymore or have any discernible cultural differences they keep. 

[Gaijin de Moscu]

It appears the war is over. We'll see, but there are first reports of Armenians "not surrendering but not winning" and declaring the end to the war.

From what I see, it's a great outcome for the Russian and Turkish geopolitical interests in the area.

[Caliga]

I'm disappointed that there's an Armenia thread on Languish without Spellus in it.