Instead of posting stuff in the OT let's just use a dedicated thread. Like this one.
Well whatever happens here is hoping it stretches Russia's ever shrinking resources.
(https://phototass3.cdnvideo.ru/width/1020_b9261fa1/tass/m2/en/uploads/i/20200207/1252387.jpg)
Some power plays in this crisis for sure.
But are Lukashenko and Putin on the same side? :hmm:
Putin is a lot smaller then I thought
Putin has been mocked a lot for his height. It seems like a rather silly thing to mock, IMO, but having always been tall maybe I just don't grasp why it would be an issue for anyone.
Isn't he very wide?
Quote from: DGuller on August 17, 2020, 12:34:38 PM
Putin has been mocked a lot for his height. It seems like a rather silly thing to mock, IMO, but having always been tall maybe I just don't grasp why it would be an issue for anyone.
Yeah - I feel the same but I'm normal height and I've spent long enough on dating apps to see constant references to height and people vouching "that is my real height". So it must be an issue, but one I just don't understand :hmm:
QuoteInstead of posting stuff in the OT let's just use a dedicated thread. Like this one.
FYI - this is the height thread now :)
Quote from: HVC on August 17, 2020, 11:06:02 AM
Putin is a lot smaller then I thought
Growing up in the Soviet Union will do that to you.
Quote from: Sheilbh on August 17, 2020, 12:44:40 PM
Quote from: DGuller on August 17, 2020, 12:34:38 PM
Putin has been mocked a lot for his height. It seems like a rather silly thing to mock, IMO, but having always been tall maybe I just don't grasp why it would be an issue for anyone.
Yeah - I feel the same but I'm normal height and I've spent long enough on dating apps to see constant references to height and people vouching "that is my real height". So it must be an issue, but one I just don't understand :hmm:
QuoteInstead of posting stuff in the OT let's just use a dedicated thread. Like this one.
FYI - this is the height thread now :)
I've never understood it either, but it seems to be very important for a lot of women.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-election-lukashenko-kill/belarus-leader-says-there-will-be-no-new-election-until-you-kill-me-tutby-media-idUSKCN25D0Z4
:lol:
QuoteMOSCOW (Reuters) - Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko told workers on Monday that there would be no new presidential election after a disputed Aug. 9 vote "until you kill me", Belarusian media reported.
"We held elections already. Until you kill me, there will be no other elections," he was quoted by the Tut.by media outlet as telling workers at a tractor plant.
He may want to consult some experts to help him prepare the transition plan. This one isn't going to work out well for him.
It is a strange response. I wonder if the translation was bad. Sounds like he's saying no elections ever, even in however many years they're meant to have new ones. Clear shark jump for a dictator claiming democratic legitimacy
This being from around noon is already old news. He was saying a few hours later that they are drafting a new constitution and once that's done there's gonna' be elections.
Quote from: Tamas on August 17, 2020, 05:19:21 PM
This being from around noon is already old news. He was saying a few hours later that they are drafting a new constitution and once that's done there's gonna' be elections.
So we're probably at the "minor reforms and I won't run in the next election" stage of this. By my reckoning that probably means he has 7-10 days left?
It's looking like Putin is working hard to smoothly control any political transition. :sleep:
https://www.ft.com/content/53c4f8ec-c2da-48db-9459-6dc717e79b9c
I'm worried for Belarus. Lukashenko seems to have completely lost it.
He and his son are in Minsk wearing full combat gear with rifles leading the security forces.
Finally a Tsar leading his people to battle again!
Quote from: Tonitrus on August 20, 2020, 04:13:11 AM
It's looking like Putin is working hard to smoothly control any political transition. :sleep:
https://www.ft.com/content/53c4f8ec-c2da-48db-9459-6dc717e79b9c
Pay wall. The exec summary?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/07/belarus-opposition-leader-maria-kolesnikova-snatched-from-street-in-minsk-reports
QuoteBelarus opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova 'snatched from street' in Minsk
Unidentified masked men snatched the leading Belarusian opposition figure Maria Kolesnikova from the street in the centre of the capital, Minsk, on Monday and drove her away in a minivan, witnesses told local media.
Kolesnikova was one of the campaign partners of the opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who claimed victory against the long-ruling president, Alexander Lukashenko, in disputed elections on 9 August.
Kolesnikova was reportedly seized soon after 10am local time while walking close to Minsk's national art museum. Three other members of the opposition coordination council have also vanished, in what appears to be a targeted attempt by the authorities to wipe out the protest movement.
Kolesnikova is the most prominent political figure still inside Belarus.
Lukashenko's victory – in a poll widely seen as rigged – has sparked mass protests. On Sunday, more than 100,000 people marched on the president's residence, calling on him to quit. Riot police wearing balaclavas arrested 633 people. Gangs of pro-government thugs beat up protesters on their way home.
It is unclear who abducted Koselnikova. Her coordination council colleagues who have disappeared include Anton Rodnenkov, Ivan Kravtsov and Maxim Bogretsov. Her press team is also missing.
Speaking to the local news website Tut.by, a woman identified as Anastasia said she spotted Kolesnikova in the street. She said she was about to go up to her and to thank her for her work when she changed her mind, thinking Kolesnikova looked exhausted.
...
A horrible crime clearly perpetuated by the rioters and in no way linked to glorious president.
The article is referring to them in the past tense...
And it isn't slowing down.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/09/belarus-opposition-figure-maxim-znak-taken-from-office-by-masked-men
QuoteBelarus opposition figure Maxim Znak taken from office by masked men
Belarusian authorities have detained one of the last leading members of an opposition council who had remained free, moving methodically to end a month of protests against President Alexander Lukashenko.
Maxim Znak, a lawyer and member of the coordination council created by the opposition to facilitate talks with the country's leader on a transition of power, was taken out of the council's office by unidentified people in ski masks, his associate Gleb German said. He said Znak only had time to text message "masks" before they took the phone away from him.
Unidentified people were also trying to enter the apartment of the last member of the council's executive presidium who remained free, Svetlana Alexievich, who won the 2015 Nobel prize in literature.
...
Is "Znak" a common name in Belarus? I thought it was just the Russian word for "sign".
Not every Slavic last name fits a pattern, there are always some odd ones mixed in.
Quote from: Liep on August 23, 2020, 02:31:40 PM
I'm worried for Belarus. Lukashenko seems to have completely lost it.
He and his son are in Minsk wearing full combat gear with rifles leading the security forces.
there was an interview with one of his soviet era handlers a while ago and the guy basically said he was bonkers, and always has been bonkers
Quote from: DGuller on September 09, 2020, 10:31:47 AM
Not every Slavic last name fits a pattern, there are always some odd ones mixed in.
I've noticed a fair number of "Tooth-less" and "Arm-(or hand)less". :P
Quote from: Tonitrus on September 09, 2020, 12:40:05 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 09, 2020, 10:31:47 AM
Not every Slavic last name fits a pattern, there are always some odd ones mixed in.
I've noticed a fair number of "Tooth-less" and "Arm-(or hand)less". :P
The Slavic name "Eileen" means "missing one leg."
Then what do you come on?
Time to use the carrot for Lukashenko?
(https://media.tenor.com/images/e33ac1330f7b875cc55d5310e74ca45c/tenor.gif)
The footage coming out of the continuing protests is still incredible.
It seems like state security forces become entirely incapacitated if their masks are pulled off.
Quote from: Duque de Bragança on September 15, 2020, 03:38:14 PM
Time to use the carrot for Lukashenko?
(https://media.tenor.com/images/e33ac1330f7b875cc55d5310e74ca45c/tenor.gif)
Steven Seagall just looks worse, and worse.
He eats healthy.
EU still can't impose sanctions on Belarus or Belarussian leaders after several rounds of trying - Borrell has acknowledged this is an issue of credibility for the EU now. Apparently the issue is that Cyprus is vetoing everything until there's a parallel sanctions on Turkey:
https://www.politico.eu/article/borrell-admits-eu-credibility-is-at-stake-in-failure-to-sanction-belarus/
I get Cyprus using their leverage but it is still pretty disappointing especially as the protests continue.
Whoever designed the EU wasn't thinking when they put that veto in. Didn't they read their Polish history?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 22, 2020, 03:25:10 AM
Whoever designed the EU wasn't thinking when they put that veto in. Didn't they read their Polish history?
Member states are super-protective around foreign and national security policy, understandably. But it does lead to issues like this.
Why did they let Cyprus in?
Quote from: Razgovory on September 22, 2020, 04:57:11 AM
Why did they let Cyprus in?
Cyprus is one of the countries that I actually think shouldn't have been let in. The plan was that a united Cyprus would join the EU by accepting the Annan peace plan. The Greek Cypriots rejected it by referendum and then joined anyway. I think that was a mistake - entirely separate from this discussion obviously but still.
Quote from: Sheilbh on September 22, 2020, 05:12:00 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on September 22, 2020, 04:57:11 AM
Why did they let Cyprus in?
Cyprus is one of the countries that I actually think shouldn't have been let in. The plan was that a united Cyprus would join the EU by accepting the Annan peace plan. The Greek Cypriots rejected it by referendum and then joined anyway. I think that was a mistake - entirely separate from this discussion obviously but still.
I tend to agree, admission should have been linked to reunification. Then again it's understandable that Cyprus is looking for help with Turkey, seeing the way it is being bullied in recent times.
Worth noting these protests are continuing and expanding demographically - new chant "the babushkas are against OMON" and "freedom for our grandchildren". Groups of pensioners congregating at a rally outside Government House. One of the groups walking past the KGB HQ:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjkWlOeX0AI-LB1?format=jpg&name=large)
Quite sweet stories of young protesters taking care of the marching elders, making sure there's plenty of water, rest stops as needed :)
Also the EU has agreed sanctions :w00t: (Not fully clear what bribery/pressure was brought to bear on Cyprus - but probably worth it).
I note we don't have a Nagorno-karabakh thread.
It seems relevant to this news too though. Russia has its attention split between its west and south... Should make things look a bit shakier for the dictatorship in Belarus.
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 05, 2020, 09:52:19 AM
Also the EU has agreed sanctions :w00t: (Not fully clear what bribery/pressure was brought to bear on Cyprus - but probably worth it).
They were asking for equal sanctions on Turkey for their Mediterranean "aggression", so maybe they were promised something as EU might have to consider it for Turkey's Armenian war as well.
Glad we added a Caucasian war to the troubles of our age.
Quote from: Liep on October 05, 2020, 10:26:27 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 05, 2020, 09:52:19 AM
Also the EU has agreed sanctions :w00t: (Not fully clear what bribery/pressure was brought to bear on Cyprus - but probably worth it).
They were asking for equal sanctions on Turkey for their Mediterranean "aggression", so maybe they were promised something as EU might have to consider it for Turkey's Armenian war as well.
Yeah - it'll be interesting to see what they get out of this (and much as it would have been nice to see sanctions sooner - fair play to Cyprus, they had leverage and used it).
Quote from: Liep on October 05, 2020, 10:26:27 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 05, 2020, 09:52:19 AM
Also the EU has agreed sanctions :w00t: (Not fully clear what bribery/pressure was brought to bear on Cyprus - but probably worth it).
They were asking for equal sanctions on Turkey for their Mediterranean "aggression", so maybe they were promised something as EU might have to consider it for Turkey's Armenian war as well.
no need for quotes around the word aggression
Quote from: Valmy on October 05, 2020, 10:28:49 AM
Glad we added a Caucasian war to the troubles of our age.
White Caucasian privilege! :P
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 05, 2020, 10:32:15 AM
Quote from: Liep on October 05, 2020, 10:26:27 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 05, 2020, 09:52:19 AM
Also the EU has agreed sanctions :w00t: (Not fully clear what bribery/pressure was brought to bear on Cyprus - but probably worth it).
They were asking for equal sanctions on Turkey for their Mediterranean "aggression", so maybe they were promised something as EU might have to consider it for Turkey's Armenian war as well.
Yeah - it'll be interesting to see what they get out of this (and much as it would have been nice to see sanctions sooner - fair play to Cyprus, they had leverage and used it).
QuoteThe compromise struck at the summit that satisfied Cyprus was an agreement to review Turkey's behaviour in December and impose sanctions if its "provocations" have not stopped.
"In case of such renewed actions by Ankara the EU will use all its instruments and options available," EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said on Friday after the summit concluded. "We have a toolbox that we can apply immediately."
"The EU issues a clear threat of sanctions against Turkey should it continue to violate international law," Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said on Twitter after the meeting.
The European Council's Michel described the approach as a "double strategy" towards Ankara, offering closer relations on trade and other fronts but holding out the threat of sanctions if it fails to de-escalate tensions in the Mediterranean.
"It was the most that Merkel would bear," said an EU diplomat after the talks. "She felt the Union should give Turkey a chance for another few weeks. But Turkey has been put on notice and the ball is in its court."
:hmm: I feel like if I were in the Cypriot government I would be disappointed by that.
Depends how binding the "do something again and we will be very cross" is I guess.
Considering Turkey isn't currently messing around in Cypriot waters having withdrawn its last mission already, I guess phrasing it this way is the most constructive.
Quote from: Tyr on October 05, 2020, 05:23:38 PM
Depends how binding the "do something again and we will be very cross" is I guess.
Considering Turkey isn't currently messing around in Cypriot waters having withdrawn its last mission already, I guess phrasing it this way is the most constructive.
Turkey is now preoccupied with some genocide in Nagorno-Karabach
The rise of China as a new world power makes people adopting their ways expected. Genocide and concentration camps are back folks!
This should be a major story if confirmed.
Reports that a Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius was in Belarussian airspace and ordered to land in Minsk where a journalist critical of Lukashenko's regime was taken from the plane and detained. Some reports that a fighter jet was used to compel the plane to land.
Apparently the journalist is Roman Protasevich of the Nexta Telegram channel which is the main social media channel for covering the protests and regime violence against them. He faces the death penalty in Belarus.
The flight map:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2EcaxMWYAMB_H5?format=jpg&name=small)
It looks like the essentials have been confirmed by Meduza and Tsikhanouskaya has issued a statement but the details are still sketchy.
That story is absolutely insane. According to Twitter KGB agents boarded the plane in Athens then Belarus made up a bomb threat on the plane when it entered Belarussian airspace and forced it to land in Minsk with fighter jet where they arrested the journalist.
I assume transiting airlines will avoid Belarussian airspace going forward.
I mean to divert a plane with a bomb scare you planted is insane. It's basically just hijacking a civilian plane :blink:
NATO and the EU have to respond in some way to show solidarity with Lithuania and Greece.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 23, 2021, 09:02:30 AM
I mean to divert a plane with a bomb scare you planted is insane. It's basically just hijacking a civilian plane :blink:
NATO and the EU have to respond in some way to show solidarity with Lithuania and Greece.
It's terrorism: "Then when the plane has entered Belarus airspace KGB officers initiated a fight with the Ryanair crew insisting there's an IED onboard. Eventually the crew was forced to send out SOS (literally moments before the plane would've left Belarus airspace). MiG-29 took off and escorted it to Minsk."
Insane.
Quote from: Liep on May 23, 2021, 09:04:53 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 23, 2021, 09:02:30 AM
I mean to divert a plane with a bomb scare you planted is insane. It's basically just hijacking a civilian plane :blink:
NATO and the EU have to respond in some way to show solidarity with Lithuania and Greece.
It's terrorism: "Then when the plane has entered Belarus airspace KGB officers initiated a fight with the Ryanair crew insisting there's an IED onboard. Eventually the crew was forced to send out SOS (literally moments before the plane would've left Belarus airspace). MiG-29 took off and escorted it to Minsk."
That's not terrorism, that's either piracy or an act of war, depending on whether Belarus set it up or not.
One immediate and appropriate action would be to ban all flights to or through Belarus, until Belarus releases the kidnapped man.
That is an intolerable attack on two NATO countries.
Quote from: Razgovory on May 23, 2021, 01:26:02 PM
That is an intolerable attack on two NATO countries.
We're deeply concerned, here's a list of 25 Belarrusian officials that can no longer shop in Milan. Thanks.
Quote from: Razgovory on May 23, 2021, 01:26:02 PM
That is an intolerable attack on two NATO countries.
According to Belarussian opposition the plane was threatened with being shot down if it didn't divert to Minsk. That definitely feels like an attack on EU and NATO citizens.
Planes carrying people from Hong Kong to Europe need to pass through Chinese airspace.
Just saying.
Quote from: Monoriu on May 23, 2021, 06:28:00 PM
Planes carrying people from Hong Kong to Europe need to pass through Chinese airspace.
Just saying.
I don't get it. What's your point?
Taking the Athens-Hong Kong-Vilnius route would avoid Belarussian air space...
Quote from: Monoriu on May 23, 2021, 06:28:00 PM
Planes carrying people from Hong Kong to Europe need to pass through Chinese airspace.
Just saying.
Planes carrying people from Chicago to Europe have to pass through US airspace.
Just saying.
Quote from: Jacob on May 23, 2021, 06:58:49 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 23, 2021, 06:28:00 PM
Planes carrying people from Hong Kong to Europe need to pass through Chinese airspace.
Just saying.
I don't get it. What's your point?
A lot of rioters and pan-democrats go to Europe. They now face a non-zero chance of being diverted to the Mainland when they inevitably pass Chinese airspace. Some one may decide to copy the tactics used.
Quote from: Monoriu on May 23, 2021, 07:06:59 PM
A lot of rioters and pan-democrats go to Europe. They now face a non-zero chance of being diverted to the Mainland when they inevitably pass Chinese airspace. Some one may decide to copy the tactics used.
That sounds like tremendous overkill. Why not just grab them in Hong Kong?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 23, 2021, 07:37:34 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 23, 2021, 07:06:59 PM
A lot of rioters and pan-democrats go to Europe. They now face a non-zero chance of being diverted to the Mainland when they inevitably pass Chinese airspace. Some one may decide to copy the tactics used.
That sounds like tremendous overkill. Why not just grab them in Hong Kong?
Lots of reasons. In Hong Kong, the police need a proper justification and possibly a court order to grab someone. On the Mainland, they can just do it. Here, once they have grabbed someone, they have to file charges in 48 hours or release them. On the Mainland, it is basically indefinite detention. Once charges are filed, it is up to the courts to decide whether to convict, and the level of penalty. On the Mainland, conviction is guaranteed, and they can simply shoot them.
Anyway, I don't think it is going to happen, but I think it is going to add yet another level in the rioters' already high stress levels. Previously, they probably felt safe once they have boarded the plane and it is cleared for take-off. Now they'll feel relieved only when the plane has reached, say EU airspace.
Quote from: Monoriu on May 23, 2021, 08:14:07 PM
Lots of reasons. In Hong Kong, the police need a proper justification and possibly a court order to grab someone. On the Mainland, they can just do it. Here, once they have grabbed someone, they have to file charges in 48 hours or release them. On the Mainland, it is basically indefinite detention. Once charges are filed, it is up to the courts to decide whether to convict, and the level of penalty. On the Mainland, conviction is guaranteed, and they can simply shoot them.
I don't remember any of that applying to that book store owner that got kidnapped.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 23, 2021, 08:58:18 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on May 23, 2021, 08:14:07 PM
Lots of reasons. In Hong Kong, the police need a proper justification and possibly a court order to grab someone. On the Mainland, they can just do it. Here, once they have grabbed someone, they have to file charges in 48 hours or release them. On the Mainland, it is basically indefinite detention. Once charges are filed, it is up to the courts to decide whether to convict, and the level of penalty. On the Mainland, conviction is guaranteed, and they can simply shoot them.
I don't remember any of that applying to that book store owner that got kidnapped.
Over 10,000 rioters were arrested in 2019/2020. None was kidnapped. All were processed according to the law.
QuoteThe Causeway Bay Books disappearances are a series of international disappearances concerning five staff members of Causeway Bay Books, a former bookstore located in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. Between October and December 2015, five staff of Causeway Bay Books went missing. At least two of them disappeared in mainland China, one in Thailand. One member was last seen in Hong Kong, and eventually revealed to be in Shenzhen, across the Chinese border, without the travel documents necessary to have crossed the border through legal channels.
Yeah Mono, that's the point. Why go to the trouble of diverting aircraft when dissidents are arrested by the thousands easily enough?
Quote from: Jacob on May 23, 2021, 09:17:01 PM
Yeah Mono, that's the point. Why go to the trouble of diverting aircraft when dissidents are arrested by the thousands easily enough?
Because of the thousands arrested, the majority have yet to be charged, and even among those charged, many were acquitted after trial.
So that's the reason the CCP regime is going to divert airplanes from a territory it already controls? Because some of the thousands of dissidents they arrest are released again?
I dunno, doesn't sound super convincing....
Mono's (naive/informed?) belief in rule of law in HK seems irrelevant to air piracy in Belarus.
Quote from: Jacob on May 23, 2021, 10:20:54 PM
So that's the reason the CCP regime is going to divert airplanes from a territory it already controls? Because some of the thousands of dissidents they arrest are released again?
I dunno, doesn't sound super convincing....
It isn't super convincing to you, because you live in Canada.
The pan-democrats that I personally know are already making posts on their Facebook pages, referring to the story and reminding their friends to be careful.
I can see it spreading if Belarus more or less gets away with it.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 24, 2021, 04:54:54 AM
I can see it spreading if Belarus more or less gets away with it.
Yeah - and the other point is it's challenging to work out what can be done. I think it needs to be something that hurts him and his clique economically - so personal sanctions, but I also think it's serious enough to justify trade sanctions and no flights to or from EU/NATO countries.
I don't know if that's enough, but I also can't think of what alternatives there are? :hmm:
Edit: And a mandatory no fly zone - as someone on Twitter's pointed out Ryanair are still flying through Belarussian airspace. There's currently a flight from Athens to Tallinn over Belarus :blink:
Belarus has a national airline, Belavia. Denying them access to EU and British airports would be a hefty blow https://www.airlineroutemaps.com/maps/Belavia_Belarusian_Airlines
But maybe that would just punish the ordinary people of Belarus, who have enough crap to deal with already :hmm:
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 24, 2021, 05:45:36 AM
Belarus has a national airline, Belavia. Denying them access to EU and British airports would be a hefty blow https://www.airlineroutemaps.com/maps/Belavia_Belarusian_Airlines
But maybe that would just punish the ordinary people of Belarus, who have enough crap to deal with already :hmm:
It definitely would - but I think that's the challenge with Belarus in general. I don't think the regime desperately craves respectability and I don't think they're massively exposed economically on a personal level (in the way of, say, a Mubarak or Russian elite). So they're difficult to influence and I feel like it might need the blunt tools that will hurt ordinary people too.
Edit: Incidentally the Ryanair statement on this is hilarious :lol:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2GEs_zWUAkX3hH?format=jpg&name=medium)
I mean literally nothing will happen. They'll sanction some high ranking Belarusian officials, sanctions that will mostly have no impact on them since most of them aren't globetrotters anyway.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 24, 2021, 05:56:09 AM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on May 24, 2021, 05:45:36 AM
Belarus has a national airline, Belavia. Denying them access to EU and British airports would be a hefty blow https://www.airlineroutemaps.com/maps/Belavia_Belarusian_Airlines
But maybe that would just punish the ordinary people of Belarus, who have enough crap to deal with already :hmm:
It definitely would - but I think that's the challenge with Belarus in general. I don't think the regime desperately craves respectability and I don't think they're massively exposed economically on a personal level (in the way of, say, a Mubarak or Russian elite). So they're difficult to influence and I feel like it might need the blunt tools that will hurt ordinary people too.
Edit: Incidentally the Ryanair statement on this is hilarious :lol:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/mediWUAkX3hH?format=jpg&name=medium)
:hmm:
I was expecting a final line of "I am OK and I write this all of my free will".
Quote from: Tyr on May 24, 2021, 08:54:47 AM
:hmm:
I was expecting a final line of "I am OK and I write this all of my free will".
I love that they just don't mention that one of their passengers was kidnapped.
See people on Twitter joking that they're probably planninga €19.99 "No kidnapping" supplemental fee :lol:
Edit: Amazingly the Belarussian government is apparently blaming Hamas.
UK has suspended the Belarussian national carrier's operating licence so they won't be allowed to fly in the UK. Also requested all UK flights avoid Belarussian airspace.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhTmm8i4WVs
Everyone is flying around Belarus. Weird that one flight diverted east of Belarus over Russian airspace.
Should the Ryanair pilot have told the MiGs to fuck off? Honest question.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 24, 2021, 10:56:02 AM
Weird that one flight diverted east of Belarus over Russian airspace.
I mean might as well. The Russians haven't done any of that shit yet...or in awhile anyway.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 24, 2021, 10:56:02 AM
Should the Ryanair pilot have told the MiGs to fuck off? Honest question.
No.
Yeah. There's nothing the pilot could have done differently - they had a fighter and messages that there was a bomb on board and they needed to land.
Quote from: Valmy on May 24, 2021, 10:56:57 AM
I mean might as well. The Russians haven't done any of that shit yet...or in awhile anyway.
They shot down MH17 in 2014.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 24, 2021, 10:56:02 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhTmm8i4WVs
Everyone is flying around Belarus. Weird that one flight diverted east of Belarus over Russian airspace.
Should the Ryanair pilot have told the MiGs to fuck off? Honest question.
No, I don't think so. I don't think the crew can be faulted.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 24, 2021, 10:56:02 AM
Should the Ryanair pilot have told the MiGs to fuck off? Honest question.
Under the circumstances, the pilot's obligation to the safety of his passengers was greater than his obligation to get them to the destination on time. Had he known that a passenger was going to be kidnapped, then his decision becomes a lot more difficult... but he didn't know that.
Apparently it was at the last possible moment just as the plane would have crossed into Lithuanian airspace that they turned around.
I do suspect the pilot tried to stay on course a while and the kgb guys on the plane pulled out something bad.
Quote from: Tyr on May 24, 2021, 12:05:12 PM
Apparently it was at the last possible moment just as the plane would have crossed into Lithuanian airspace that they turned around.
I do suspect the pilot tried to stay on course a while and the kgb guys on the plane pulled out something bad.
Yeah, the procedure in the vent of an actual bomb threat would have been to land at the closest airport, Vilnius Airport.
Since there's almost certainly security video footage of the hijackers in Athens, and I wonder if the Rusians/Belorusians made sure that their hijackers were not known to Western intelligence.
I wonder if the lawtalkers here know enough international law to know whether Ireland has jurisdiction to request the apprehension and deportation of the hijackers, or whether Belarus alone has jurisdiction.
Quote from: Zanza on May 24, 2021, 01:34:10 AM
Mono's (naive/informed?) belief in rule of law in HK seems irrelevant to air piracy in Belarus.
Although - thinking about it this incident is more attention grabbing and affected 180 or so other citizens of various (mainly European) countries. But it's not a million miles away from the way other authoritarian states - Russia and China - have tried to make it clear that even if dissidents or journalists or opponents get to the West that doesn't necessarily mean they're safe. Whether it's the actions of Chinese intelligence agencies against Hong Kong dissidents and critics in Canada or Australia, or the Skripal poisoning, or the Prague bombing, or the planned murder of Belarussian dissidents now living in Germany.
I think it is all part of an effort to make the world safe for autocracies by reducing the safe spaces available for their opponents.
Separately EU has also agreed to close airspace to the Belarussian carrier and recommend European fligths avoid Belarussian airspace. They've agreed in principle to sanctions but haven't yet decided the targets - this was something I missed on the UK's actions yesterdays, they have also imposed sanctions on 99 individuals and companies. Hopefully the key is to now expand this effort to other NATO allies.
Interestingly, Turkey approved the sale of military drones to Poland and their airforce will be joining a NATO deployment in Lithuania - so it feels like Putin's attempts to court Turkey have been less effective than hoped.
I understand that closing airspace to Belarusian planes is a high-impact move and we kinda need that in light of what's been done, but I feel we shouldn't be making more to difficult to get the fuck out from that place :hmm:
I also wonder if Belarus is enroute to becoming Europe's North Korea.
Belarus manages to unite the EU, that's no small feat these days. You'd almost hope they pull more of these stunts.
So apparently the threat made from the KGB agents was that the bomb would activate over Vilnius. Hamas has always hated those zionistic Lithuanians.
Quote from: Liep on May 25, 2021, 05:43:10 AM
So apparently the threat made from the KGB agents was that the bomb would activate over Vilnius. Hamas has always hated those zionistic Lithuanians.
It would have to be timed, or a suicide mission. Either way, it is absurd that the bomb would go off on the shorter trip to Vilnius than the longer trip to Minsk. Such a threat is a transparent lie that isn't expected to be believed.
I do kind of admire the balls of Lukashenko in keeping the KGB name, though. It's so much more ominous a name than "FSB." Dictators who don't hide the fact that they are dictators are tight.
Obviously this remains very serious - but amazing story of a Greek passenger who was actually travelling to Minsk and was changing at Vilnius. After the plane was basically hijacked he just decided to get off and it was surprisingly convenient for him :lol:
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 01:48:48 AM
Obviously this remains very serious - but amazing story of a Greek passenger who was actually travelling to Minsk and was changing at Vilnius. After the plane was basically hijacked he just decided to get off and it was surprisingly convenient for him :lol:
Hope he gets a refund of his Vilnius to Minsk ticket.
(https://i.redd.it/blr79vz2ze171.jpg)
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 01:48:48 AM
Obviously this remains very serious - but amazing story of a Greek passenger who was actually travelling to Minsk and was changing at Vilnius. After the plane was basically hijacked he just decided to get off and it was surprisingly convenient for him :lol:
Cui bono? :hmm:
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 01:48:48 AM
Obviously this remains very serious - but amazing story of a Greek passenger who was actually travelling to Minsk and was changing at Vilnius. After the plane was basically hijacked he just decided to get off and it was surprisingly convenient for him :lol:
I had something similar happen in a flight to LA that was diverted to Albuquerque after a fight (yeah) broke out in the plane. There was a guy that was actually going to Albuquerque and offboarded the plane there :lol:
Sadly it seems than online tankies in the West are continuing the dirty work of the Belorussian KGB and smear attacks on the detained guy have started already, painting the guy as, of course, a closeted neo nazi.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 01:48:48 AM
Obviously this remains very serious - but amazing story of a Greek passenger who was actually travelling to Minsk and was changing at Vilnius. After the plane was basically hijacked he just decided to get off and it was surprisingly convenient for him :lol:
This is where the investigation must focus.
Surprised he was allowed to do this though. I recall a friend telling me how they had to land in London when flying to Manchester due to a medical emergency. They tried to just get off there as they figured with all the faff it'd be just as quick for getting back home and it was a business trip anyway so who cares about cost....
They were told no. You have to go to Manchester.
Quote from: The Larch on May 26, 2021, 03:54:06 AM
Sadly it seems than online tankies in the West are continuing the dirty work of the Belorussian KGB and smear attacks on the detained guy have started already, painting the guy as, of course, a closeted neo nazi.
I generally hate the phrase "weaponisation" but I think it's accurate to describe the way Russia uses WW2 and around fascism/neo-nazis in Eastern Europe. And it does get picked up not just by online tankies but in bits of the more sort of respectable left online panicking more about a neo-nazi Ukrainian nationalist party that has 1 seat in the Rada than the integrity of Ukraine and the rights of all Ukrainians to decide their own fate and not have it determined by invading little green men.
It's a really effective line from Russia.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 04:34:54 AM
Quote from: The Larch on May 26, 2021, 03:54:06 AM
Sadly it seems than online tankies in the West are continuing the dirty work of the Belorussian KGB and smear attacks on the detained guy have started already, painting the guy as, of course, a closeted neo nazi.
I generally hate the phrase "weaponisation" but I think it's accurate to describe the way Russia uses WW2 and around fascism/neo-nazis in Eastern Europe. And it does get picked up not just by online tankies but in bits of the more sort of respectable left online panicking more about a neo-nazi Ukrainian nationalist party that has 1 seat in the Rada than the integrity of Ukraine and the rights of all Ukrainians to decide their own fate and not have it determined by invading little green men.
It's a really effective line from Russia.
You have to really give it to them in that area, they really know how to play the propaganda game vis a vis the West.
Online tankie is a thing and not a typo? Never heard it before.
I always have to suppress a gag reflex when I see an online forum poster who I'm sure is not a troll (based on their longevity) repeat all the Russian propaganda talking points. Can't help but feel disdain for these people, their lack of critical thinking let them become propaganda weapons for an enemy nation.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 26, 2021, 05:48:35 AM
Online tankie is a thing and not a typo? Never heard it before.
Tankies are militant, vociferous and unreconstructed commies that in the current scenario will defend Belarus, in this case in an online environment.
Quote from: DGuller on May 26, 2021, 05:53:28 AM
I always have to suppress a gag reflex when I see an online forum poster who I'm sure is not a troll (based on their longevity) repeat all the Russian propaganda talking points.
I admire your multitasking.
Quote from: The Larch on May 26, 2021, 05:55:09 AM
Tankies are militant, vociferous and unreconstructed commies that in the current scenario will defend Belarus, in this case in an online environment.
So, Jeremy Corbyns? :P
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 26, 2021, 06:22:42 AM
Quote from: The Larch on May 26, 2021, 05:55:09 AM
Tankies are militant, vociferous and unreconstructed commies that in the current scenario will defend Belarus, in this case in an online environment.
So, Jeremy Corbyns? :P
Worse than that.
Quote from: The Brain on May 26, 2021, 06:18:35 AM
Quote from: DGuller on May 26, 2021, 05:53:28 AM
I always have to suppress a gag reflex when I see an online forum poster who I'm sure is not a troll (based on their longevity) repeat all the Russian propaganda talking points.
I admire your multitasking.
Thanks! :)
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 26, 2021, 05:48:35 AM
Online tankie is a thing and not a typo? Never heard it before.
I hadn't heard of it, either, so i looked it up. It's a UK-originated term for the members of the left who supported the Soviet use of force (tanks) to crush the Hungarian and Czech defections from hardline communism. It seems to have started as a description by the left of the hard left (Stalinists/Maoists).
I like it nd will (mis)use it.
Quote from: The Larch on May 26, 2021, 06:24:21 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 26, 2021, 06:22:42 AM
Quote from: The Larch on May 26, 2021, 05:55:09 AM
Tankies are militant, vociferous and unreconstructed commies that in the current scenario will defend Belarus, in this case in an online environment.
So, Jeremy Corbyns? :P
Worse than that.
Way worse - they're a thing on red rose Twitter.
An example of one recent tankie post that I don't fully understand but see people dunking on:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1tO4M-XsAECDg0?format=png&name=small)
China is a diverse community while the US eliminates diversity and it's everyone for themselves?
I've seen tankie used plenty of times online and by americans, I was not aware of it being originally British. It's meant to cover the Stalinists who'd have gone all "send in the tanks!" at the Prague Spring and the Hungarian uprising during the cold war, nowadays it's those that will still defend the Soviet Union no matter what, as well as the contemporary authoritarian regimes that purport themselves to be socialist or commie-ish, not just Cuba but Belarus, China, Syria, etc, as well as Russia itself.
I was not aware of this being the first time it's used in the forum.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 06:58:25 AMWay worse - they're a thing on red rose Twitter.
Red rose Twitter? :unsure:
Quote from: The Larch on May 26, 2021, 07:04:29 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 06:58:25 AMWay worse - they're a thing on red rose Twitter.
Red rose Twitter? :unsure:
People with red roses in their Twitter handles. People with just a red rose - normally American Democratic Socialists - and maybe split between Bernie stans v more identity politics left. Red rose and/or a hammer and sickle = tankie :lol:
I think they're probably mainly teenagers (and thank God I didn't have social media when I was either a theatre kid or a communist :lol:) acting out. But still.
QuoteI've seen tankie used plenty of times online and by americans, I was not aware of it being originally British. It's meant to cover the Stalinists who'd have gone all "send in the tanks!" at the Prague Spring and the Hungarian uprising during the cold war, nowadays it's those that will still defend the Soviet Union no matter what, as well as the contemporary authoritarian regimes that purport themselves to be socialist or commie-ish, not just Cuba but Belarus, China, Syria, etc, as well as Russia itself.
I think it actually originates from splits on the British hard left between those who opposed the USSR over Hungary (which was a huge issue on the British hard left) and Prague (less of an issue because it was a tiny groupuscule by then) and those who enthusiastically supported them sending in the tanks.
I always find the high Stalinist Western Communist parties weirdly fascinating - but in the UK, and I think most of Western Europe, Hungary caused absolute collapse of their support and membership.
Psellus used to go on about Tankies on Facebook. People who defend Beria and such. Loathsome.
Didn't we (Languish) try to invade a pro North Korean forum one time?
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 07:15:12 AM
Quote from: The Larch on May 26, 2021, 07:04:29 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 06:58:25 AMWay worse - they're a thing on red rose Twitter.
Red rose Twitter? :unsure:
People with red roses in their Twitter handles. People with just a red rose - normally American Democratic Socialists - and maybe split between Bernie stans v more identity politics left. Red rose and/or a hammer and sickle = tankie :lol:
Ah, ok, over here the symbol that has really taken off in the last few years in the online left is the red triangle facing downwards, the Nazi camp badge for political prisoners. I believe the pink triangle is also pretty popular for LGTBQ+ activists.
QuoteQuoteI've seen tankie used plenty of times online and by americans, I was not aware of it being originally British. It's meant to cover the Stalinists who'd have gone all "send in the tanks!" at the Prague Spring and the Hungarian uprising during the cold war, nowadays it's those that will still defend the Soviet Union no matter what, as well as the contemporary authoritarian regimes that purport themselves to be socialist or commie-ish, not just Cuba but Belarus, China, Syria, etc, as well as Russia itself.
I think it actually originates from splits on the British hard left between those who opposed the USSR over Hungary (which was a huge issue on the British hard left) and Prague (less of an issue because it was a tiny groupuscule by then) and those who enthusiastically supported them sending in the tanks.
As mentioned, I had no idea of its historical origins in the British left, for me it was basically a shorthand for Stalinist.
QuoteI always find the high Stalinist Western Communist parties weirdly fascinating - but in the UK, and I think most of Western Europe, Hungary caused absolute collapse of their support and membership.
Few of those are relevant anymore, thankfully, but you'll always find the weird one around that rejects Eurocommunism and keeps touting hardcore postures and unabashedly displaying the hammer and sickle in their symbols.
Over here our main commie party is completely within the Eurocommie orthodoxy and all other splitters that reject it are basically irrelevant. In Portugal it's different, for instance, I believe their main commie party, which has a few MPs, is still pretty tankie, and there's even an extraparlamentary Maoist commie party too.
Quote from: The Larch on May 26, 2021, 07:31:52 AMAh, ok, over here the symbol that has really taken off in the last few years in the online left is the red triangle facing downwards, the Nazi camp badge for political prisoners. I believe the pink triangle is also pretty popular for LGTBQ+ activists.
Interesting - not seen those here.
QuoteFew of those are relevant anymore, thankfully, but you'll always find the weird one around that rejects Eurocommunism and keeps touting hardcore postures and unabashedly displaying the hammer and sickle in their symbols.
Over here our main commie party is completely within the Eurocommie orthodoxy and all other splitters that reject it are basically irrelevant. In Portugal it's different, for instance, I believe their main commie party, which has a few MPs, is still pretty tankie, and there's even an extraparlamentary Maoist commie party too.
Yeah - I mean here the left, even the hard left, outside of the Labour Party are genuine groupuscules. They're all tiny and engaged in intense theological debate with each other.
But there were a few basically Communist MPs within Labour some were very sympathetic to the USSR regardless of its politics, there were others that were basically Titoist and there have been numerous Trotskyite entryist groups within Labour. They never had much success (the peak was probably the 80s) but I think it does shape our experience of left politics compared with the rest of Europe that it's always been focused on and through Labour and it was often about subverting or taking over Labour.
It's utterly different from most of the rest of Europe where the Socialists and Communists were separate and normally hated each other :lol: And the development of Communist approaches from basically being full tankies (Thorez, Togliattii) to Eurocommunism - and I think Hungary was crucial in that in most countries.
Edit: And also the UK never had unions dividing on ideological grounds. So there was never a communist union and an anarchist union and a socialist union. The National Union of Miners and a few other unions were very close to the Communists as well as funding and having votes in Labour rather than there being a Communist NUM and a Labour NUM.
I think the pink triangle is now the ancient approach for gays. I know it used to be bigger when fighting for gay rights. I think old school SF still uses it.
Quote from: garbon on May 26, 2021, 08:51:20 AM
I think the pink triangle is now the ancient approach for gays. I know it used to be bigger when fighting for gay rights. I think old school SF still uses it.
Yeah I associate with ACT UP, don't really see it so much on Twitter.
Quote from: Sheilbh on May 26, 2021, 07:15:12 AM
People with red roses in their Twitter handles. People with just a red rose - normally American Democratic Socialists - and maybe split between Bernie stans v more identity politics left. Red rose and/or a hammer and sickle = tankie :lol:
I'm a bit confused....
The Red Rose is a typical symbol of mainstream Social Democrats in Europe and is used in the US as well, where Euro style Social Democracy is seen as radical.
Are you describing mainstream Social Democrats (and Zoupa) as tankies? Are you saying that tankies have taken a Social Democratic symbol as their own? Or are you saying that saying that some sections of twitter are mixing tankie and mainstream Social Democratic politics in their positions?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on May 26, 2021, 07:30:49 AM
Didn't we (Languish) try to invade a pro North Korean forum one time?
A communist (tankie, though we didn't call it that at the time) yes.
I usually see tankie chronically misused to mean anyone who tries to have nuance looking at the Soviet Union. The term has become popular in recent years and lost all meaning with it.
Interesting. Air France Paris-Moscow flight has been cancelled. It didn't go through Belarussian airspace, so Russia refused permission for it to go through its airspace.
Obviously this isn't a blanket approach by Russia because there have been other flights from EU and UK airports that have used the non-Belarus routes. But it is maybe now just a risk for flights to Russia.
I also wonder if Air France was a deliberate choice given the big change in rhetoric from Macron and Elysee over Russia in the last few days following this incident.
Maybe. But Russia just kind of does shit almost at random just to confuse. Probably tomorrow it favors Air France over somebody else.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/03/belarus-exile-group-leader-vitaly-shishov-missing-in-kyiv-police-say
Off the back of that Olympian seeking asylum in Poland.
QuoteBelarus exile group leader Vitaly Shishov found dead in Kyiv, police say
The head of a Kyiv-based non-profit organisation that helps Belarusians fleeing persecution has been found dead in a park in the Ukrainian capital, police have said.
Vitaly Shishov, the head of Belarusian House in Ukraine (BDU), was reported missing by his partner on Monday after he did not return from a run and could not be reached on his mobile phone.
"Belarusian citizen Vitaly Shishov, who had gone missing in Kyiv yesterday, was today found hanged in one of the Kyiv parks, not far from where he lived," police said in a statement, adding that they had opened a murder investigation and would pursue all leads including a possible "murder disguised as a suicide".
Friends of Shishov said he had been followed by "strangers" while jogging recently, the human rights organisation Viasna said on Telegram. The organisation said on Monday it was not able to contact Shishov, who it said had left his residence at 9am (0700 BST) and was supposed to have returned an hour later.
Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania have become safe havens for Belarusians during a violent crackdown by the country's strongman president, Alexander Lukashenko, on any form of dissent since mass protests erupted after last year's disputed elections.
Belarusian authorities have characterised anti-government protesters as criminals or violent revolutionaries backed by the west, describing the actions of law enforcement agencies as adequate and necessary.
BDU helps Belarusians find accommodation, jobs and legal advice, according to its website.
Shishov's disappearance came as the Belarusian athlete Krystsina Tsimanouskaya said she was forced to withdraw from the Tokyo Olympics and threatened with forced repatriation for criticising her athletics federation on social media.
The sprinter, who was granted a humanitarian visa from Poland on Monday, said she feared being jailed if she returned to her country, where the authorities have targeted the president's opponents, rights activists and journalists.
Her husband, Arseniy Zdanevich, told AFP he had fled from Belarus to Ukraine and was hoping to join his wife "in the near future".
Lukashenko and his son Viktor have been banned from Olympic events over the targeting of athletes for their political views.
The president sparked international outrage in May by dispatching a fighter jet to intercept a Ryanair plane flying from Greece to Lithuania in order to arrest a dissident onboard.
A Belarusian athlete criticized her coaches at the Olympics and was ordered to fly back. She was worried she would be punished at home and asked the police for help. Several European states offered her asylum; she received a humanitarian visa from the Polish embassy.
Originally she said she would ask for help from the Austrian embassy (she's worked with Austrian coaches), but the Austrian embassy did ... nothing.
The Austrian government was criticized for not reaching out to her. Some say they didn't want to piss off Belarus; apparently after Russians, Austrians are the biggest investors in the country. The official line is that the embassy was waiting for her to show up after she said she'd contact them and didn't see it necessary to do anything else.
Quote from: garbon on August 03, 2021, 03:07:03 AM
"Belarusian citizen Vitaly Shishov, who had gone missing in Kyiv yesterday, was today found hanged in one of the Kyiv parks, not far from where he lived," police said in a statement, adding that they had opened a murder investigation and would pursue all leads including a possible "murder disguised as a suicide".
If there are no chairs around and his hands were tied behind it's back, there's a decent chance russian and belarussian medias will report the cause of death as "natural causes".
Quote from: viper37 on August 03, 2021, 07:18:19 PM
Quote from: garbon on August 03, 2021, 03:07:03 AM
"Belarusian citizen Vitaly Shishov, who had gone missing in Kyiv yesterday, was today found hanged in one of the Kyiv parks, not far from where he lived," police said in a statement, adding that they had opened a murder investigation and would pursue all leads including a possible "murder disguised as a suicide".
If there are no chairs around and his hands were tied behind it's back, there's a decent chance russian and belarussian medias will report the cause of death as "natural causes".
I don't think they're that dumb. They'll say it was a false flag murder.