I think a very likely scenario is that the Powers That Be in the Republican Party will decide (if they have not done so already) that Trump has to go - the damage he can do is to great, both to the country and the party.
However, they control Congress, and given the possible means of getting rid of a President, that means THEY control his removal. THEY will have to impeach him, or THEY will have to having him removed for lack of ability to fulfill his duties (25th).
I suspect that the plan will be, or the plan is already, to make sure that the ground for his removal be something new. If he is impeached or removed based on information that already exists, then the blame for the entire disaster will be very hard to lay anywhere but with the Party that elected him.
So my suspicion will be that there will need to be some new information, new scandal that can be trotted out so Priebus and Pence can say "Well we supported him until we found out about THIS! Now he has to go...".
Ideally of course, this would be something the radical right wing media can then spin as being the fault of the Democrats. I know that seems ridiculous, but its not like they would have to convince the bulk of the people, just the people who think Obama is a secret Muslim, or that Clinton's email server is the worst corruption ever seen.
It will happen this way. Trump may be walking. Maybe the first sunny day of the spring. And a car will slow beside him, and a door will open, and someone he knows, maybe even trusts, will get out of the car. And he will smile, a becoming smile. But he will leave open the door of the car and offer to give him a lift.
If he's ousted by a Republican coup, it will confirm the beliefs of everyone who thinks that political elites will protect power for themselves and will not allow outsiders into important positions.
Quote from: Berkut on January 18, 2017, 09:47:20 AM
I think a very likely scenario is that the Powers That Be in the Republican Party will decide (if they have not done so already) that Trump has to go - the damage he can do is to great, both to the country and the party.
However, they control Congress, and given the possible means of getting rid of a President, that means THEY control his removal. THEY will have to impeach him, or THEY will have to having him removed for lack of ability to fulfill his duties (25th).
I suspect that the plan will be, or the plan is already, to make sure that the ground for his removal be something new. If he is impeached or removed based on information that already exists, then the blame for the entire disaster will be very hard to lay anywhere but with the Party that elected him.
So my suspicion will be that there will need to be some new information, new scandal that can be trotted out so Priebus and Pence can say "Well we supported him until we found out about THIS! Now he has to go...".
Ideally of course, this would be something the radical right wing media can then spin as being the fault of the Democrats. I know that seems ridiculous, but its not like they would have to convince the bulk of the people, just the people who think Obama is a secret Muslim, or that Clinton's email server is the worst corruption ever seen.
For impeachment, it would need to be about treason. Otherwise, I'm not sure the Democrats of the Senate would really want to out him. For the good of the country, it would be wise to evict him from the White House, but for the good of the party, it might be better to let him sink the Republican Party with him.
I have no idea of the process required by the 25th amendment though.
I guess it really depends on the pole. Maybe they already have what they need to oust him and are only waiting for his approval ratings to sink further. I'm not sure the Republican party as whole really cares about what's good for the country, so long as they have power.
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2017, 10:22:38 AM
For impeachment, it would need to be about treason.
Two Presidents have been impeached and in neither case was it for treason.
Time line?
Do remember the republicans only have 2 years of supreme power. After 2 years of Trump I don't rate their chances in the 2018 elections
I reckon if it happens it will be after at least a year of disastrous performance and scandals (combined with ramming through a significant part of the conservative agenda). I imagine it would be either sex related or traitor related (outside chance - massive corruption), but following a long set of stories about sex related, traitor related, or ideology related shortcomings.
But yeah, something will come come out and it will blow up in the media like never before - and out come the knives.
That said, I think it's more likely that the GOP establishment will try use scandals to keep Trump in line and amenable to their agenda rather than impeach him.
True - they do have this window of opportunity they have not had in like...forever.
If they can manage Trump, they can get their most radical of ideas jammed through. Ideally, they will want to keep him around for at least a year or two so they can get their radical right authoritarian supreme court justice in, for example. Maybe more than one.
If they are clever, they can ride Trump just long enough to get critical parts of the Tea Party agenda, that only a small minority of Americans support, jammed through.
Quote from: Berkut on January 18, 2017, 11:03:30 AM
True - they do have this window of opportunity they have not had in like...forever.
If they can manage Trump, they can get their most radical of ideas jammed through. Ideally, they will want to keep him around for at least a year or two so they can get their radical right authoritarian supreme court justice in, for example. Maybe more than one.
If they are clever, they can ride Trump just long enough to get critical parts of the Tea Party agenda, that only a small minority of Americans support, jammed through.
Imo that's the bargain Trump and the GOP struck a long time ago.
"Hey, the base loves me!! I'll re-energize the party! Back me up and I'll let you guys run the place how you like!"
Trump does love to say he's a deal maker. The best deal maker, making the best deals!!!
The trick is when either side will backstab the other. :hmm:
Quote from: Berkut on January 18, 2017, 11:03:30 AM
True - they do have this window of opportunity they have not had in like...forever.
If they can manage Trump, they can get their most radical of ideas jammed through. Ideally, they will want to keep him around for at least a year or two so they can get their radical right authoritarian supreme court justice in, for example. Maybe more than one.
If they are clever, they can ride Trump just long enough to get critical parts of the Tea Party agenda, that only a small minority of Americans support, jammed through.
I don't think that the Tea party types will be the ones using or discarding Trump. They aren't organized enough nor, frankly, bright enough. It'll be the Ryans and McCarthys who will topple Trump.
I think something to do with improper dealings with his family and his business is most likely. I really don't see him towing the line on that.
The republicans can safely say that before he came to power they totally believed him when he promised to follow the rules, divest himself of all his private interests, etc...
How to pin it on the dems though? :hmm:
I don't think Ryan is conniving enough, although he might be the one to pull the trigger if someone else sets it up.
Quote from: Valmy on January 18, 2017, 10:26:16 AM
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2017, 10:22:38 AM
For impeachment, it would need to be about treason.
Two Presidents have been impeached and in neither case was it for treason.
what I meant is, to rally everyone behind (well, 2/3 of the Senates and the public opinion).
I'm unconvinced that simply spying on the other camp, as Nixon did, would be an impeachable offense in today's political climate. Many Republicans seemed to approve of the DNC hack.
Please remember that Mike Pence is way worse than Trump.
Quote from: Syt on January 18, 2017, 10:02:17 AM
If he's ousted by a Republican coup, it will confirm the beliefs of everyone who thinks that political elites will protect power for themselves and will not allow outsiders into important positions.
a valuable lesson...
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 18, 2017, 02:00:55 PM
Quote from: Syt on January 18, 2017, 10:02:17 AM
If he's ousted by a Republican coup, it will confirm the beliefs of everyone who thinks that political elites will protect power for themselves and will not allow outsiders into important positions.
a valuable lesson...
Blatantly an untrue one. Outsiders regularly get elected to every office imaginable. For all the good it usually does us.
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2017, 01:33:48 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 18, 2017, 10:26:16 AM
Quote from: viper37 on January 18, 2017, 10:22:38 AM
For impeachment, it would need to be about treason.
Two Presidents have been impeached and in neither case was it for treason.
what I meant is, to rally everyone behind (well, 2/3 of the Senates and the public opinion).
I'm unconvinced that simply spying on the other camp, as Nixon did, would be an impeachable offense in today's political climate. Many Republicans seemed to approve of the DNC hack.
Any sort of crime and misdemeanor is sufficient if the President is adequately hated. I am not even sure what crime Andrew Johnson committed and he only survived by one vote.
Quote from: Valmy on January 18, 2017, 02:02:20 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 18, 2017, 02:00:55 PM
Quote from: Syt on January 18, 2017, 10:02:17 AM
If he's ousted by a Republican coup, it will confirm the beliefs of everyone who thinks that political elites will protect power for themselves and will not allow outsiders into important positions.
a valuable lesson...
Blatantly an untrue one. Outsiders regularly get elected to every office imaginable. For all the good it usually does us.
Not saying that it's true, just that a vocal group will see it that way. And you'll likely hear about it longer than about Benghazi.
Quote from: Valmy on January 18, 2017, 02:02:20 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 18, 2017, 02:00:55 PM
Quote from: Syt on January 18, 2017, 10:02:17 AM
If he's ousted by a Republican coup, it will confirm the beliefs of everyone who thinks that political elites will protect power for themselves and will not allow outsiders into important positions.
a valuable lesson...
Blatantly an untrue one. Outsiders regularly get elected to every office imaginable. For all the good it usually does us.
one swallow does not a summer make.
Especially not of outsiders can be co-opted into the system.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 18, 2017, 02:18:16 PM
Especially not of outsiders can be co-opted into the system.
Even if not co-opted they all learn to work together eventually. Which is why the system is fine allowing outsiders into important positions. If it didn't the system would have long since ceased to exist.
Quote from: Valmy on January 18, 2017, 02:24:58 PM
Even if not co-opted they all learn to work together eventually. Which is why the system is fine allowing outsiders into important positions. If it didn't the system would have long since ceased to exist.
For a not-insignificant proportion of the outsider supporters, anything short of "tear down the system completely and usher in utopia (and/or really hurt people I don't like)" counts as co-opting.
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 18, 2017, 01:48:01 PM
Please remember that Mike Pence is way worse than Trump.
Domestically, in some way he is.
But he's much less likely to get millions of people killed and destroy 70 years of American foreign policy. Something that makes him far more palatable than Trump.
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 18, 2017, 01:48:01 PM
Please remember that Mike Pence is way worse than Trump.
I prefer Pence :)
Quote from: Valmy on January 18, 2017, 02:24:58 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 18, 2017, 02:18:16 PM
Especially not of outsiders can be co-opted into the system.
Even if not co-opted they all learn to work together eventually. Which is why the system is fine allowing outsiders into important positions. If it didn't the system would have long since ceased to exist.
which is an excellent way to protect wealth and influence. Those that can't be co-opted leave quickly enough, the rest joins. And if a revolution does happen, a new elite is formed and cycle starts again.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 18, 2017, 02:43:16 PM
which is an excellent way to protect wealth and influence. Those that can't be co-opted leave quickly enough, the rest joins. And if a revolution does happen, a new elite is formed and cycle starts again.
The best way to protect wealth and influence is, indeed, to be inclusive. Trying to keep people out is how revolutions happen.
But, last I checked, government civil servants are not exactly the super wealthy.
Quote from: derspiess on January 18, 2017, 02:35:26 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 18, 2017, 01:48:01 PM
Please remember that Mike Pence is way worse than Trump.
I prefer Pence :)
Over Trump? Absolutely. People that have convinced themselves that Pence is worse than Trump are fooling themselves. Pence can do damage. Trump can destroy.
Quote from: derspiess on January 18, 2017, 02:35:26 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 18, 2017, 01:48:01 PM
Please remember that Mike Pence is way worse than Trump.
I prefer Pence :)
So do I, and it isn't even close.
Pence is a right wing ignorant dumbass, but he isn't personally a despicable human being. He would be a bad President, but has no potential to be a catastrophically bad President.
Quote from: Valmy on January 18, 2017, 02:03:20 PM
Any sort of crime and misdemeanor is sufficient if the President is adequately hated. I am not even sure what crime Andrew Johnson committed and he only survived by one vote.
He was accused of violating the Tenure in Office Act. And, technically,for what it's worth, he was guilty of doing so, if you think the Act was constitutional. The Supreme Court did eventually rule that it was unconstitutional, but not until 1913, IIRC. Of course, after Johnson was acquitted, everybody ignored the Act anyway.
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 18, 2017, 01:48:01 PM
Please remember that Mike Pence is way worse than Trump.
Yeah, if you're a woman. We have to pick our battles here, though.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on January 18, 2017, 10:55:01 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 18, 2017, 01:48:01 PM
Please remember that Mike Pence is way worse than Trump.
Yeah, if you're a woman.
Or some other gender, or non-hetero, or non-Christian, etc...
Not that I'm disagreeing. Trump is just bad for absolutely everyone, unless he basically does nothing as President.
Quote from: Solmyr on January 19, 2017, 05:39:10 AM
Or some other gender, or non-hetero, or non-Christian, etc...
Not that I'm disagreeing. Trump is just bad for absolutely everyone, unless he basically does nothing as President.
Which in turn would leave the country to the loving and caring hands of the current Republican party.
:lol:
Guys, let's be happy if the fully GOP-controlled House and Senate won't let him stay for a 3rd and 4th term.
Quote from: Tamas on January 19, 2017, 06:35:42 AM
:lol:
Guys, let's be happy if the fully GOP-controlled House and Senate won't let him stay for a 3rd and 4th term.
1 He's 70 years old.
2 They'd need a consitutional amendment. 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 of the states.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 19, 2017, 09:33:45 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 19, 2017, 06:35:42 AM
:lol:
Guys, let's be happy if the fully GOP-controlled House and Senate won't let him stay for a 3rd and 4th term.
1 He's 70 years old.
2 They'd need a consitutional amendment. 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 of the states.
Better get to work on the voter suppression mechanisms then to ensure that becomes feasible.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 19, 2017, 09:33:45 AM
1 He's 70 years old.
He has sat immobile, his body slowly crumbling, within the Golden Toilet of Trump Tower for over 10,000 standard years. Although once a living man, His shattered, decaying body can no longer support life, and it is kept intact only by the cybernetic mechanisms of the Golden Toilet and a potent mind itself sustained by the daily sending of thousands of tweets.
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 19, 2017, 09:33:45 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 19, 2017, 06:35:42 AM
:lol:
Guys, let's be happy if the fully GOP-controlled House and Senate won't let him stay for a 3rd and 4th term.
1 He's 70 years old.
2 They'd need a consitutional amendment. 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 of the states.
After 2018 they should be mostly, if not entirely, there.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on January 19, 2017, 12:22:54 PM
After 2018 they should be mostly, if not entirely, there.
Yeah, it's a distinct possibility.
What is comical are the lefties I've come across who advocate a constitutional convention to implement voter reforms, universal income, and basically make the US solidly progressive by means of changing the constitution to match their agenda. I'm not sure how they imagine that'll happen with the GOP being in the driver's seat.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on January 19, 2017, 12:22:54 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 19, 2017, 09:33:45 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 19, 2017, 06:35:42 AM
:lol:
Guys, let's be happy if the fully GOP-controlled House and Senate won't let him stay for a 3rd and 4th term.
1 He's 70 years old.
2 They'd need a consitutional amendment. 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 of the states.
After 2018 they should be mostly, if not entirely, there.
You think the GOP won't lose seats in '18? That would go against very strong historical precedent.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 19, 2017, 12:56:10 PM
You think the GOP won't lose seats in '18? That would go against very strong historical precedent.
After gaining the chancellory, in the following election the national socialists dramatically increased their seat number.
Quote from: alfred russel on January 19, 2017, 01:05:44 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 19, 2017, 12:56:10 PM
You think the GOP won't lose seats in '18? That would go against very strong historical precedent.
After gaining the chancellory, in the following election the national socialists dramatically increased their seat number.
I'm much less worried about that today than I was two months ago. Trump just seems so incompetent and distanced from actual government. Maybe he's just lulling us into a false state of security.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 19, 2017, 12:56:10 PM
You think the GOP won't lose seats in '18? That would go against very strong historical precedent.
Districts don't get redrawn until after the census in '20. Red will stay red.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 19, 2017, 12:56:10 PM
You think the GOP won't lose seats in '18? That would go against very strong historical precedent.
It seems that most of the seats realistically in contention are held by Democrats.
Quote from: Jacob on January 19, 2017, 01:46:13 PM
It seems that most of the seats realistically in contention are held by Democrats.
I have read that about the Senate, but not the House.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 19, 2017, 01:49:20 PM
Quote from: Jacob on January 19, 2017, 01:46:13 PM
It seems that most of the seats realistically in contention are held by Democrats.
I have read that about the Senate, but not the House.
That could be the case... I mainly remember a narrative that 2018 favours the GOP in terms of seats up, but I don't recall the details.
Quote from: Jacob on January 19, 2017, 01:46:13 PM
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 19, 2017, 12:56:10 PM
You think the GOP won't lose seats in '18? That would go against very strong historical precedent.
It seems that most of the seats realistically in contention are held by Democrats.
Geography isn't good, but that usually doesn't matter as much in midterms as it does in presidential years.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-should-democrats-do-now/
Quote from: Habbaku on January 18, 2017, 03:42:29 PM
Quote from: derspiess on January 18, 2017, 02:35:26 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 18, 2017, 01:48:01 PM
Please remember that Mike Pence is way worse than Trump.
I prefer Pence :)
Over Trump? Absolutely. People that have convinced themselves that Pence is worse than Trump are fooling themselves. Pence can do damage. Trump can destroy.
Trump has the mullas to tell the GOP leadership to fuck off on a seemingly endless possibilities of issues & do something else. Pence is one of them!
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 19, 2017, 02:32:37 PM
Trump has the mullas to tell the GOP leadership to fuck off on a seemingly endless possibilities of issues & do something else. Pence is one of them!
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs2.quickmeme.com%2Fimg%2F25%2F25d65f6e09e5e8e6f4c12d15a86a92bed25adb59236e58adaa3676697255f538.jpg&hash=00dc1cc8b28a49801607f761fad990dace65a83e)
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 19, 2017, 09:33:45 AM
2 They'd need a consitutional amendment. 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 of the states.
Wasn't there a loophole some Republicans tried to invoke for GW Bush?
Quote from: jimmy olsen on January 19, 2017, 12:56:10 PM
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on January 19, 2017, 12:22:54 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 19, 2017, 09:33:45 AM
Quote from: Tamas on January 19, 2017, 06:35:42 AM
:lol:
Guys, let's be happy if the fully GOP-controlled House and Senate won't let him stay for a 3rd and 4th term.
1 He's 70 years old.
2 They'd need a consitutional amendment. 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 of the states.
After 2018 they should be mostly, if not entirely, there.
You think the GOP won't lose seats in '18? That would go against very strong historical precedent.
1. Most of the Senate seats up are Democrat.
2. Dem voters don't turn out in midterms. And sure, they'll despise Trump, but more than enough will refuse to turn out and vote for D candidates because they're at odds on pet issues.
3. GOP controls Congress and the government, and recent history has shown they'll take full advantage of every dirty trick: voter ID, suppress minority turnout, "scandals", rumors and investigations of D candidates, etc.
I don't think we'll have to worry much about any legislative silliness or procedural bullshit in the end--not when it comes out, well after a shitload of South Koreans/Taiwanese/Japanese/Poles/Brits/Germans/Americans are quite dead, that he was made fully aware of and warned against a real and existential threat long beforehand by the intelligence community he chooses to ignore in deference to his little Lyndon-LaRouche-conspiracy.ru circle of fruitcake goofballs.
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 19, 2017, 02:32:37 PM
Trump has the mullas to tell the GOP leadership to fuck off on a seemingly endless possibilities of issues & do something else. Pence is one of them!
:o Pence is a mulla? It's all starting to make sense. :hmm:
Quote from: CountDeMoney on January 19, 2017, 08:23:07 PM
I don't think we'll have to worry much about any legislative silliness or procedural bullshit in the end--not when it comes out, well after a shitload of South Koreans/Taiwanese/Japanese/Poles/Brits/Germans/Americans are quite dead, that he was made fully aware of and warned against a real and existential threat long beforehand by the intelligence community he chooses to ignore in deference to his little Lyndon-LaRouche-conspiracy.ru circle of fruitcake goofballs.
He's only "aware" of what Ivanka tells him he needs to be aware of. If the intelligence community can get her to understand the threat, Trump's understanding is immaterial.
Quote from: grumbler on January 19, 2017, 09:40:42 PM
He's only "aware" of what Ivanka tells him he needs to be aware of. If the intelligence community can get her to understand the threat, Trump's understanding is immaterial.
All I'm saying is, if there's a major terrorist attack or international act of aggression that the White House was warned of well in advance, and Der Furor chose to do nothing because he and Lyndon LaFlynn refuse to believe it, he will be put out faster than you can say "Evildoers."
Quote from: grumbler on January 19, 2017, 02:43:59 PM
Quote from: Grey Fox on January 19, 2017, 02:32:37 PM
Trump has the mullas to tell the GOP leadership to fuck off on a seemingly endless possibilities of issues & do something else. Pence is one of them!
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs2.quickmeme.com%2Fimg%2F25%2F25d65f6e09e5e8e6f4c12d15a86a92bed25adb59236e58adaa3676697255f538.jpg&hash=00dc1cc8b28a49801607f761fad990dace65a83e)
Yes. My writing is the issue.
Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on January 19, 2017, 07:00:07 PM
2. Dem voters don't turn out in midterms. And sure, they'll despise Trump, but more than enough will refuse to turn out and vote for D candidates because they're at odds on pet issues.
If there is one thing where the French are (still) superior it's this: they'll turn out and vote for a candidate not of their liking if it keeps out the worse option.
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 20, 2017, 11:42:42 AM
If there is one thing where the French are (still) superior it's this: they'll turn out and vote for a candidate not of their liking if it keeps out the worse option.
But what worked for Jean-Marie in 2002, won't work with Marine this time in 2017.
Quote from: Drakken on January 20, 2017, 01:06:22 PM
But what worked for Jean-Marie in 2002, won't work with Marine this time in 2017.
You don't think they would rally behind Fillon like they did Chiraq? Sure Fillon may be a bit Catholic in his social views but he is basically alright.
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2017, 01:11:27 PM
You don't think they would rally behind Fillon like they did Chiraq? Sure Fillon may be a bit Catholic in his social views but he is basically alright.
No. The left
hates Fillion, going so far to deem his program to be retrograde and of a 'violence unheard of in the recent history of France":
http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2016/11/27/la-gauche-denonce-la-violence-inedite-du-programme-de-francois-fillon_5039048_4854003.html
And if Macron wins, the right will rather unite behind Le Pen than allow the left a second mandate of doing-squat. Macron is an adventurer, a free electron in the mold of Trump. Marine has succeeded in "defascizing" the National Front and make it palable to the electorate, going so far as to kick her father out of the party. NF has now become a palatable Extreme-Right option for a good section of the French electorate and a contender to be reckoned with.
Quote from: Drakken on January 20, 2017, 01:16:15 PM
No. The left hates Fillion, going so far to deem his program to be retrograde and of a 'violence unheard of in the recent history of France":
That Paris terrorist attack pales in comparison to the violence of a balanced budget!
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2017, 01:20:25 PM
That Paris terrorist attack pales in comparison to the violence of a balanced budget!
You tend to underestimate how rabid and incapable of pragmatism the French left and ultraleft can be.
Quote from: Drakken on January 20, 2017, 01:22:30 PM
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2017, 01:20:25 PM
That Paris terrorist attack pales in comparison to the violence of a balanced budget!
You tend to underestimate how rabid and incapable of pragmatism the French left and ultraleft can be.
My impression was that they tended to talk a radical game but were pretty lame in actuality. Buy maybe they will be all like 'Better Hitler than Blum' this time. We'll see.
It has more to do with how Fillion has positioned himself closer to historically rooted bourgeois right-wing ideology. The same that got thoroughly discredited by the 1940s, and which De Gaulle had been able to erase through circumstances and force of personality.
The PS under Hollande indeed played the hand of so many left-wing parties of Europe and America - a managerial ideology of pragmatism, with the end result similar to so many other left-wing parties of Europe and America: approval from well-to-do liberals who are happy to give money and pontificate in the press, failing to convince right-wingers who hate their guts anyway, and disappointing their militants who gave time and energy to the party. These militants, who had been fighting the NF for years, will be the ones who will stay home this time around - and some will have been poached by the NF anyway.
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 20, 2017, 01:32:17 PM
The same that got thoroughly discredited by the 1940s,
Huh. See I thought the extreme nationalism of the NF was what got thoroughly discredited by the 1940s. Silly me.
Quote from: Valmy on January 20, 2017, 01:34:09 PM
Huh. See I thought the extreme nationalism of the NF was what got thoroughly discredited by the 1940s. Silly me.
Don't be flip. The National Front did not exist in the 1930s. What existed was a brand of bourgeois, Catholic, antisemitic, Conservatism, skeptical of the Republic at best, actively despising it at worst - who were not necessarily fascists, but who had been happy to give space, and power, to authoritarian leaders who promised to "make France Great Again". The end result - collaboration with Nazism - prompted self-examination, and the Gaullian synthesis. This is what discredited it as a form of mainstream conservatism. The FN certainly rose from the ashes of the Vichy militia - with antisemitism, fetish for direct, violent action, etc. - but it attracted people who did not care for discredit, because its modus vivendi did not seek respectability, contrary to mainstream conservatism. This is what has changed in the current incarnation of the FN.
Maybe, but I'd bet ma chemise that Marine Le Pen will not be the next French President.
Quote from: Zoupa on January 20, 2017, 01:57:12 PM
Maybe, but I'd bet ma chemise that Marine Le Pen will not be the next French President.
Would you have made the same bet with Trump?
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 20, 2017, 01:59:49 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on January 20, 2017, 01:57:12 PM
Maybe, but I'd bet ma chemise that Marine Le Pen will not be the next French President.
Would you have made the same bet with Trump?
I bet Yi that Trump would win... :mellow:
He owes me a crisp 50
Quote from: Drakken on January 20, 2017, 01:06:22 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on January 20, 2017, 11:42:42 AM
If there is one thing where the French are (still) superior it's this: they'll turn out and vote for a candidate not of their liking if it keeps out the worse option.
But what worked for Jean-Marie in 2002, won't work with Marine this time in 2017.
That may or may not be so.
Fillon is just too much... an unabashed Thatcher-worshiper as President of the French Republic... scandale.
The history of the French far right is really interesting to me. Despite the widespread and virulent/passionate embrace of values we might group as quasi-fascist from Boulanger and Dreyfus to the February 1934 pseudo-coup attempt, a French fascism, in the strict sense, never seems to have really emerged -- against the odds, really. There was that one silly import that pretty much plagiarized Italian fascism to the point of absurdity, I forget the name, but nothing organically French. Part of it might have been too many competing strands of reactionary thought: there were still Legitimists engaged in street fights in the 30s (Camelots du Roy), Orleanists, Bonapartists, Maurrasian national-syndicalists, etc.
Quote from: Capetan Mihali on January 20, 2017, 02:10:41 PMThere was that one silly import that pretty much plagiarized Italian fascism to the point of absurdity, I forget the name, but nothing organically French.
Are you thinking of the Croix-de-Feu?
Yeah Boulanger's trick was to unite those elements for a few seconds. The French far left also always had a similar problem.
However didn't the French Fascists use the defeat in 1940 to launch their parliamentary coup? It was not like the Germans required them to become a dictatorship. That seemed very French and 'L'Action française'-ish in how it viewed things.
Technically, the coup was Pétain abrogating the Republic. But it was the Assembly - the same that had given birth to the Front Populaire in 1936 - that gave unlimited powers to Pétain - this is why Maurras called the defeat the "Divine Surprise".
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 20, 2017, 02:15:13 PM
Quote from: Capetan Mihali on January 20, 2017, 02:10:41 PMThere was that one silly import that pretty much plagiarized Italian fascism to the point of absurdity, I forget the name, but nothing organically French.
Are you thinking of the Croix-de-Feu?
Le Faisceau. Much less significant and much shorter-lived. In a sad irony, the founder was at least enough of a French nationalist to join the Resistance, and he died in Bergen-Belsen.
Quote from: Oexmelin on January 20, 2017, 02:21:41 PM
Technically, the coup was Pétain abrogating the Republic. But it was the Assembly - the same that had given birth to the Front Populaire in 1936 - that gave unlimited powers to Pétain - this is why Maurras called the defeat the "Divine Surprise".
I thought it was Laval's doing. He tricked a bunch of the Assembly's leadership to flee to North Africa and then bullied the leaderless remnant to end the Third Republic. IIRC anyway.