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#11
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-1...
Last post by Tonitrus - August 10, 2022, 08:30:05 PM
I don't think they'd use a tactical nuke on a city (well, one that is not already rubbled by artillery anyway), or with a real tactical goal of eliminating a particular enemy formation...but more as a "demonstration" to stay back from territory that they are serious about.
#12
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Admiral Yi - August 10, 2022, 08:27:07 PM
The interviewee on NPR mentioned, in additon to Hillary, a precedent which I had forgotten about, Sandy Berger.  National Security advisor under Bubba.  He went to the National Archives and stuffed docs into his socks or underwear.  $50K fine, two years of probation, security clearance lost for two years.
#13
Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread
Last post by Admiral Yi - August 10, 2022, 07:40:14 PM
So this is a show about a moody guy who sits on park benches? :unsure:
#14
Off the Record / Re: The 2022 Economic Crisis M...
Last post by Sheilbh - August 10, 2022, 05:29:52 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 10, 2022, 05:20:49 PMI think DGuller was writing and I agree thay structural problems wit the eternal free money asset pump system we introduced after 2008 has been triggered to overflow into the consumer realm because of covid and the war.
I disagree I think the problem with QE ultimately was it didn't really reach consumers or the "real economy" it didn't improve lending, for example, which was one of the big goals because there were still not many credit-worthy borrowers out there. I wonder if it maybe contributed to the boom of capital funded companies that basically sell consumer services at a loss - Ubers etc? :hmm:

I think what shifted with covid were things like cheques to individuals, furlough, lockdowns restricting opportunities for spending so in the two years running up to the war you had a lot of pent-up demand and individuals savings increased or their credit position did.

I don't think there's a clear conclusion on QE and inflation - my guess that it exacerbates rather than causes. So in the 2010s which was broadly a time of low to stagnant growth, austerity, households not building up savings and those functioning just in time supply chains it didn't do much to inflation. That started to shift in the US first but one or all of those factors have changed across the world, plus energy shocks like the turn to gas in Asia, plus the war - all of which are now exacerbated by QE.

Although I think most of the central banks are already on their QT cycles (and the BofE has said they'll keep doing QT even when rates start falling again). I think as with rate rises (and for very good reasons) the ECB is taking a slightly different approach so there's QT in Germany, France and the Netherlands but QE in Spain, Italy etc.
#15
Off the Record / Re: The 2022 Economic Crisis M...
Last post by Tamas - August 10, 2022, 05:20:49 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 10, 2022, 05:16:14 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 10, 2022, 05:07:56 PMWhen of course it is both.

I'd be curious to see the data (... and analysis by credible experts).

In terms of handouts I think it's much more about the policies of the past decade. And I am sure inflation was going up prior to the Russian invasion. But it would be petty hard to deny it has been made materially worse by the war.

I think DGuller was writing and I agree thay structural problems wit the eternal free money asset pump system we introduced after 2008 has been triggered to overflow into the consumer realm because of covid and the war.
#16
Off the Record / Re: The 2022 Economic Crisis M...
Last post by Jacob - August 10, 2022, 05:16:14 PM
Quote from: Tamas on August 10, 2022, 05:07:56 PMWhen of course it is both.

I'd be curious to see the data (... and analysis by credible experts).
#17
Off the Record / Re: The 2022 Economic Crisis M...
Last post by Tamas - August 10, 2022, 05:07:56 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 10, 2022, 05:05:23 PMThere seems to be a political thing going on of "the gov't printed money and gave it to people, that's why we have inflation" versus "inflation was primarily caused by increased oil prices due to Russia's war, and Covid related supply chain issues."

When of course it is both.
#18
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Jacob - August 10, 2022, 05:06:50 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on August 10, 2022, 04:00:01 PMNever a good sign when the first line of defense is: the cops planted it. 

Although maybe that's a function of hiring a legal team based on their performance on cable news shows instead of a courtroom.

Makes sense if Trump's best shot of beating potential charges are through winning elections.
#19
Off the Record / Re: The 2022 Economic Crisis M...
Last post by Jacob - August 10, 2022, 05:05:23 PM
There seems to be a political thing going on of "the gov't printed money and gave it to people, that's why we have inflation" versus "inflation was primarily caused by increased oil prices due to Russia's war, and Covid related supply chain issues."
#20
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-1...
Last post by Tamas - August 10, 2022, 04:18:33 PM
I think we need to stop talking about tactical nukes. I don't see why those would be used in this conflict. They were, as I understand, made to be  used against massed armored formartions on the German front of the WW3 which never happened.

I don't think they would achieve anything Russia could not achieve with conventional artillery without risking M.A.D.