Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 07:11:03 PM

I don't know how reasonably Europe will react. Money is money. I mean how many times did we "reset" with Russia for the sweet sweet oil? And they've actual invaded European countries. And America has a lot of economic opportunities, assuming the GOP doesn't tank it the hasten the second coming. A Dem win could easily sway European countries to overlook the danger (Canada too). They might need a few more boops on the nose. Could be wrong, hope I am, but don't think I am.

To be honest I don't think US trade is that big of a concern for the EU. The EU has very diversified trade and a very successful trade policy. The US is the EU's largest trade partner but it's only about 20% of its goods exports and about 13% of its imports (behind China).

In terms of trade policy I think the bigger European concern right now is Chinese "overproduction", which, combined with higher industrial energy prices, are presenting huge challenges for Europe's industrial base. I think in terms of trade and economic policy the China threat is seen as the bigger risk for Europe - the Commission talks about it being "critically unbalanced", about "systemic distortions" in China's system having impacts in Europe and the need for reciprocity and a level playing field.

In terms of trade Trump and the US are not helpful. But they're manageable problems. China is more "systemic" as the Commission puts it.

#2

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 07:03:34 PM

I think there's a good chance that relations will be better post-Trump. His senile shit-flinging monkey personality doesn't help.

The question is whether post-Trump will be the same agenda and world view with a slightly more reasonable veneer, whether it'll be someone trying to repair things, or whether it'll be an entirely third direction. The key challenge there is how to maintain the movement towards strength and self-sufficiency when there's an excuse to lose focus.

I totally agree. There is a degree that is just thermostatic - Europeans didn't like W Bush, swung back to being far more pro-American under Obama. That repeated with Trump and Biden. I'd expect it to repeat again.

I think the mistake would be in placing too much emphasis on that. In a way I think a regrettable side of Biden's presidency was that I think it created a bit of complacency in Europe and a sense of the old order would return. I think it's largely gone whatever and whoever succeeds - even if the US isn't actively anti-Europea as this administration is. I also think it is very unlikely that a new President even a Democrat will want or be able to return to the status quo ante.

I think more broadly, Biden is likely to be the last President steeped in that Atlanticist tradition.

Looks like the conversation about developing European nuclear capabilities is under way:

I think the Swedes have also been having conversations with London and Paris over this.

I think there is a challenge of a "European" capability as some are talking about. One is just the classic problem of defence policy in the European project (that having a hegemon like the US helpfully nullifies in NATO) of how it would operate without a single unified command structure and with different risk perceptions. To put it really bluntly, who would get the nuclear codes?

Incidentally this is why I think the solution to European defence is more likely to be found in "minilateral" structures rather than existing structures including everyone. There is no country big enough to act as the obvious hegemon in Europe, but you could have regional areas with one or two big countries acting as the scaffolding to support and coordinate that area including smaller countries. For example, if they could work together Germany, Poland and the Baltics. Similarly France and Italy have commitments and interests in the Med and South-East Europe (it's the French defence relationships with Greece and Romania that make me think this might be the most effective model) - and obviously Turkiye is another NATO tension, Macron's famous "brain death of NATO" was in the context of US withdrawing from Syria without informing European allies leading to Turkiye bombing (US armed) Kurdish forces in Syria. The North Atlantic has a lot of powers who have shared interests but aren't necessarily in the EU - Canada, Greenland, Iceland, UK, Norway - who should probably coordinate for defence of that region.

I'd add the French position stated under de Gaulle, repeated by numerous presidents since has always been that nuclear power cannot be shared (and I think it's precisely for that reason). I think the security people seem to be having interesting debates on this and I'm not sure. My suspicion is that we may just have proliferation - I wouldn't be surprised to see Poland acquire nukes at some point.

FWIW the ECFR polling is always interesting:
https://ecfr.eu/europeanpower/unlock/

#3

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by HVC - Today at 06:42:09 PM

I don't know how reasonably Europe will react. Money is money. I mean how many times did we "reset" with Russia for the sweet sweet oil? And they've actual invaded European countries. And America has a lot of economic opportunities, assuming the GOP doesn't tank it the hasten the second coming. A Dem win could easily sway European countries to overlook the danger (Canada too). They might need a few more boops on the nose. Could be wrong, hope I am, but don't think I am.

I actually have more hope of military disentanglement. Which has it own problems (OvB listed a few, which I broadly agree with, if in a less derogatory manner )

#4

Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread

Last post by HVC - Today at 06:34:17 PM

They all want to be Michelle or Jackie.

#5

Off the Record / Re: Dead Pool 2026

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 06:13:47 PM

Oh RIP - one of the greats

#6

Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread

Last post by Josephus - Today at 06:08:05 PM

In all fairness....nobody would probably go watch a documentary on Biden's wife either. That's the point, I guess, it is such a vanity project.

#7

Off the Record / Re: Dead Pool 2026

Last post by Josephus - Today at 06:05:04 PM

loved her since SCTV

likewise.  true great

#8

Off the Record / Re: Dead Pool 2026

Last post by HVC - Today at 05:52:10 PM

loved her since SCTV

#9

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 05:12:29 PM

The guy Trump nominated for the Fed sounds like a reasonable, orthodox technocrat, not a sycophantic idiot.  I mean that's welcome, but pretty unusual.

Warsh had an established reputation as a monetary hawk that vanished virtually the moment Trump won the election.  Then all he wanted to do is cut rates.

The Street will be happy because he is one of them and because he managed to serve on the Fed before without crapping all over himself, but he is political.  Unless he has been craftily concealing his true beliefs to get appointed, he is going to follow the WH line and prime the pumps leading up the midterms.

#10

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by HVC - Today at 04:51:58 PM

Seems like some new Epstein files released today, with more direct accusations involving Trump (among others).  Hopefully they're not fakes planted to discredit the whole concept.

Guess that means we can expect military strikes this weekend as a distraction. Possibly against Iran, but maybe also Denmark or Minnesota.

Don't forget Cuba.