Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Syt - Today at 01:09:09 AM

My takeaway so far is that it's good I never married, because I can't become a doomed widower.

#2

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Syt - Today at 01:05:12 AM

State of the world:

#3

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by DGuller - Today at 12:27:33 AM

So husbands are likely to be at least a bit older than their wives while men have noticeably shorter average lifespans than women, I believe.

So wouldn't just these two facts naturally result in the statical phenomenon in the study?

Mortality studies are done on "all else being equal" basis.  If a reputable study says that there is higher mortality for a widower, it means that for the same age and health status, a man who is a widower is more likely to die within the next year than a man who is not a widower.

#4

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Neil - March 13, 2026, 10:02:02 PM

All the research I saw, when I was interested in such things, pointed to a significant drop in life expectancy for widowers, even younger ones. 

#5

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Valmy - March 13, 2026, 09:44:25 PM

Yeah good luck with that.

#6

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by crazy canuck - March 13, 2026, 09:08:03 PM

Yes, and the research in question was examining the impact of one variable on those life spans.

Did it? It seems to suggest other factors, including some specific to Japan. And also seems like it focussed almost exclusively on the elderly "Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study"

Does the same hold true to men who lose their spouse in their 50s?

The research I was talking about.   You know the post you responded to 

[Why it matters:]

#7

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by viper37 - March 13, 2026, 08:59:29 PM

Israel is about to launch a massive "temporary" conquest of Lebanon.

Israel planning massive ground invasion of Lebanon, officials say

Non paywall link

Israel is planning to significantly expand its ground operation in Lebanon, aiming to seize the entire area south of the Litani River and dismantle Hezbollah's military infrastructure, Israeli and U.S. officials say.
Why it matters: This could be the largest Israeli ground invasion of its northern neighbor since 2006, dragging Lebanon to the epicenter of the escalating war with Iran.

• "We are going to do what we did in Gaza," a senior Israeli official said, referring to the flattening of buildings Israel says Hezbollah uses to store weapons and launch attacks.

The big picture: An operation of this size and scale could lead to a prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon.

• Lebanon's government is deeply alarmed that the renewed war — triggered by Hezbollah's decision to launch rockets at Israel — will devastate the country.
• The Trump administration backs a major Israeli operation to disarm Hezbollah, but is also pressing to limit the damage to the Lebanese state and pushing for direct Israel-Lebanon talks on a postwar agreement.

Driving the news: Until days ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government was still trying to contain the Lebanon escalation in order to stay focused on Iran, according to Israeli officials.

• That calculus changed Wednesday when Hezbollah launched more than 200 missiles in a massive coordinated attack with Iran, which fired dozens of its own.
• "Before this attack we were ready for a ceasefire in Lebanon, but after it there is no way back from a massive operation," a senior Israeli official said.

State of play: The IDF has had three armored and infantry divisions on the Lebanese border since the start of the Iran war, with some ground forces conducting limited incursions over the past two weeks.

• On Friday, the IDF announced it's sending reinforcements to the border and mobilizing additional reserves ahead of the expanded ground operation.
• "The goal is to take over territory, push Hezbollah's forces north and away from the border, and dismantle its military positions and weapons depots in the villages," the official said.

The other side: Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said Friday that the Lebanese government's diplomatic track had failed to achieve sovereignty or protect Lebanese civilians — and therefore "there is no solution except resistance."

• "When the enemy threatens a ground invasion, we tell him: this is not a threat, but one of the traps you will fall into," Qassem said.
• "Because every advance of a ground invasion allows the resistance fighters to achieve gains and results through close confrontation with the enemy."

Zoom in: The IDF has issued evacuation orders across southern Lebanon and — for the first time — to villages and towns north of the Litani River, as well as to Hezbollah's stronghold in Beirut's southern suburbs.

• Around 800,000 Lebanese civilians have been displaced since the start of the conflict. At least 773 people have been killed, many of them civilians.

Behind the scenes: The Trump administration asked Israel not to bomb Beirut's international airport or other Lebanese state infrastructure during the operation, U.S. and Israeli officials say.

• U.S. officials said Israel agreed to spare the airport — but stopped short of committing to protect other state infrastructure. On Friday, the IDF bombed a bridge in southern Lebanon it claimed Hezbollah was using to move forces and weapons.
• An Israeli official said they will consult with Washington on a case-by-case basis: "We feel we have full U.S. backing for this operation," the official told Axios.
• "The Israelis have to do what they have to do to stop the Hezbollah shelling," a U.S. official said.

The intrigue: Netanyahu has tasked former minister Ron Dermer with managing the Lebanese file during the war, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

• Dermer will handle contacts with the Trump administration and lead any negotiations with the Lebanese government if direct talks begin in the coming weeks, the officials said.
• On the American side, the file is being managed by Trump adviser Massad Boulos, who is also the U.S. envoy for Africa.
• Boulos, who is Tiffany Trump's father-in-law, has been in contact with Israeli, Lebanese and Arab officials in recent days to facilitate direct talks between Israel and Lebanon.

What to watch: The Lebanese government has indicated in recent days it is ready to hold direct talks on the terms of a ceasefire with Israel, immediately and without preconditions.

• Sources say the Trump administration wants to use those negotiations to lay the groundwork for a broader deal that would formally end the state of war between Israel and Lebanon — ongoing since 1948.

#8

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by viper37 - March 13, 2026, 08:55:22 PM

There is no mass migration movement from North to South.  There is however a massive interest in Americans gaining another citizenship.  Go figure which country is in decline. 

Speaking of: Any Canadians want to adopt me?   

lol 

You need Canadian ancestor these days to expedite the process 

#9

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by jimmy olsen - March 13, 2026, 08:48:24 PM

Sicilian Expedition levels of hubris.

Depends on what they're going to do, I suppose.

Beef up security on US bases in the region? Seems reasonable.

Some sort of landing in Iran to achieve a crucial objective before withdrawing? Potentially audacious, and potentially not crazy.

Taking and holding the Iranian coast to prevent attacks on Hormuz shipping? They might need a little more than 2 200 marines to pull that off for any length of time.

Thin point of the wedge for taking and holding the Iranian coast to prevent attacks on Hormuz shipping? I guess we should look out for more substantial assets being put into position.

I have to assume they're going to try and capture Kharg island, which would be quite risky, but not as patently insane as trying to seize a port on the mainland.

#10

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Legbiter - March 13, 2026, 08:43:26 PM

Depends on what they're going to do, I suppose.

Beef up security on US bases in the region? Seems reasonable.

Extra meat for Iranian drones to hit, the US staff on every base in the Gulf has dispersed into hotels by this point.

Some sort of landing in Iran to achieve a crucial objective before withdrawing? Potentially audacious, and potentially not crazy.

Seizing Kharg island means they will be under constant drone and artillery attack. You'd have Iranian special forces posting FPV drone footage of American marines getting killed.

Taking and holding the Iranian coast to prevent attacks on Hormuz shipping? They might need a little more than 2 200 marines to pull that off for any length of time.

Same problem as Kharg island, you seize some coastal real estate, the Iranians pound you with drones and artillery from a little inland, up in the mountains.

The point is the Iranians have cruise missiles costing about the same as a used car.