Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by The Brain - Today at 03:21:13 AM

Cannot? Who's to stop a recipient from doing it?

The piece of metal can be transferred but not the award of the prize. 

The recipient proclaims that they are transferring the prize to a third party. The third party publicly accepts the transfer, and it is soon mentioned in official documents like national park tickets. The Nobel people can whine about it, but what can they actually do?

#2

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 02:57:53 AM

What are the US' arctic capabilities?

In any case, what the hypothetical military action would be depends on what bullshit reason Trump might cook up for using force against Canada and what he'd be aiming to get out of it. Who knows what it could be... kidnap Carney, blow up a bridge, patrol Vancouver for illegal immigrants and shoot random people in cars, shoot some cruise missiles at a purported FLQ base in Quebec? Could be anything really.

#3

Off the Record / Re: The Shooting Gallery: Poli...

Last post by Zoupa - Today at 02:52:43 AM

Look at that slogan. If you know your Spanish Civil War, you'll recognize "Uno de los nuestros vale por todos los vuestros" made famous by the falangists.

They're not even hiding it anymore.

#4

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Bauer - Today at 02:10:43 AM

So Trump is now talking of military action on Mexican cartels.  If that does come to pass I think that's a major escalation and destabilizing event on this continent.

If America ever uses military coercion on Canada what does that look like?  My guess would be in the arctic where we have limited ability to respond.

#5

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Jacob - Today at 02:09:59 AM

I waver between whether Miller is a Grima Wormtounge or a Bib Fortuna.

Though Trump is a geriatric Jabba in either case.

He's a random EUOT Byzanteen or HOItard who lucked into a job where his inane racist alt-history takes gets turned into policy.

#6

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 02:07:39 AM

I waver between whether Miller is a Grima Wormtounge or a Bib Fortuna.

Though Trump is a geriatric Jabba in either case.

#7

Off the Record / Re: (Great Power) War in Our T...

Last post by Zoupa - Today at 12:04:17 AM

I think fairly low risk. I think far, far less chance of it than during the Cold War or pre-WW1.

I think the global situation is looser and more flexible than that. I actually think the risk has declined since Trump took office and came to power. I think there was far more chance of a Cold War or Guns of August style escalation with no off-path under Biden - Adam Tooze has written about his fear that the US was approaching a point of locking in conflcit with China at one point (I can't remember when exactly) and speaking to senior people in the Administration  precisely about that "Guns of August" risk.

I can't really see Russia v China any time soon. Honestly the comparison that keeps coming to my mind there is the British Empire and the Americans.

I don't think the EU is a great power and I don't think it'll become one. I hope I'm proven wrong but I see no evidence that at this point - a diverse multi-state Europe is not going to suddenly become a homogenous, effective superstate that can compete with Russia, China or the US (caveat: Europe advances through crisis - counter to that: that's fine but rearmament has a run-in time). I'd note that the main focus in Brussels at the minute is, in fact, that France and Germany are increasingly on opposite sides on the big decisions - I'm not sure that relationship is still the engine, but it is important and it's been dysfunctional for at least a decade (I'd argue since the crash and Eurozone crisis).

I don't think the US is likely to go to war with Russia or China over any of the areas Russia or China are likely to target. Not under the current administratio and I think Biden was a last gasp of that America. I think maybe the one to watch is the Middle East - especially if there is a revolution in Iran.

It's pretty amazing that I think I disagree with all of your takes in this post 

Still love ya.

#8

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by The Minsky Moment - January 10, 2026, 11:56:46 PM

It's exhausting. But as you say ultimately what he says is kind of only ever temporarily meaningful.

There is no one at the tiller.  There is no NSA.  Gabbard is MIA. Trump is confused and addled and lurches back-and-forth depending on who spoke to him at last.  Policy formation to the extent it exists appears to be coming mostly from Miller, which would explain the otherwise inexplicable presence of a deputy chief of staff at a conference announcing a major overseas military operation.  Policy execution appears to be completely formless and driven by Trump's mood in a given moment and the motives of whoever manages to get access and shove a paper in front of him to sign.

#9

Off the Record / Re: The Shooting Gallery: Poli...

Last post by Syt - January 10, 2026, 11:55:59 PM

Quick flashback to 5 years ago when the anti-vaxx MAGA crowd were worried about nazi methods in America.

#10

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by The Minsky Moment - January 10, 2026, 11:50:53 PM

Again via Blas at the White House meeting on Venezuelan oil Trump basically told Conoco to forget about the $12 billion the company is owned by Venezuela ("welll....good write off").

Today Trump's issued an executive ord to shield Venezuelan oil revnue in the US from creditors.

It is all interesting.

After ranting about Venezuela stealing from the oil companies, Trump himself just did exactly that.

Then, despite assurances that the US is running Venezuela, the State Dept issued an alert for all American nationals to flee the country as paramilitaries on the streets are searching for Americans.

The shit show continues . . .