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#1
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Jacob - Today at 02:18:48 AMYeah. If I don't get a raise and everything costs the same, then I feel a bit stagnant but comfortable nonetheless.
If I get a 10% raise and everything is 10% more expensive, I'll be stressed that I might not be able to keep up. I'll expect prices to continue to shoot up, but I'm far from confident that my boss will give me an equivalent raise next year.
If the 10% price increase is an average, and the things I think I need have gone up by 15% and things I rarely or never buy have only gone up by 5% then I'll feel even more squeezed.
And of course, if my raise was below the 10% average, I'll feel squeezed even if some other group of people have gotten enough to make up for it.
Are the statistics granular enough to see if that's happening to specific sectors of the populace? If, say, large numbers of low earners are seeing low or negligible growth in their income while the cost of their necessities (housing, food, health care, transportation) continues to increase it would be reasonable IMO to call that an affordability crisis.
If I get a 10% raise and everything is 10% more expensive, I'll be stressed that I might not be able to keep up. I'll expect prices to continue to shoot up, but I'm far from confident that my boss will give me an equivalent raise next year.
If the 10% price increase is an average, and the things I think I need have gone up by 15% and things I rarely or never buy have only gone up by 5% then I'll feel even more squeezed.
And of course, if my raise was below the 10% average, I'll feel squeezed even if some other group of people have gotten enough to make up for it.
Are the statistics granular enough to see if that's happening to specific sectors of the populace? If, say, large numbers of low earners are seeing low or negligible growth in their income while the cost of their necessities (housing, food, health care, transportation) continues to increase it would be reasonable IMO to call that an affordability crisis.
#2
Off the Record / Re: Are we in the opening scen...
Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - Today at 01:43:28 AMMight be correlated with urbanization and the decrease in people engaged in subsistence agriculture, or any agriculture. Children aren't the go-to hack to increase your production capacity.
Plus a lot of other parameters I guess.
Plus a lot of other parameters I guess.
#3
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:34:06 AMYi:
1) From 2000-2020, the annual inflation rate reached 3 percent only 5 times. That supports the claim that 3 percent inflation is not "low" by 21st century standards, at least as of COVID.
2) Argument 2 was not about real wages but the absolute price level. People don't think in terms of real wages, they are paid in money wages. That's the "money illusion" at work. If wages go up, that is perceived as a much-deserved raise. If prices go up, that as perceived as taking away the value of that deserved raise. Price expectations are based on experiences of price levels not real wage levels.
1) From 2000-2020, the annual inflation rate reached 3 percent only 5 times. That supports the claim that 3 percent inflation is not "low" by 21st century standards, at least as of COVID.
2) Argument 2 was not about real wages but the absolute price level. People don't think in terms of real wages, they are paid in money wages. That's the "money illusion" at work. If wages go up, that is perceived as a much-deserved raise. If prices go up, that as perceived as taking away the value of that deserved raise. Price expectations are based on experiences of price levels not real wage levels.
#4
Off the Record / Re: Are we in the opening scen...
Last post by Valmy - January 04, 2026, 11:56:55 PMQuote from: DGuller on January 04, 2026, 10:10:45 PMQuote from: Jacob on January 04, 2026, 09:19:44 PMThe teeming tenements of the past suggest to me that apartment living is not the cause of declining birthrate.I would say that more generally, I find arguments of the form "people are too poor to have kids" unpersuasive. If you look at countries sorted by natural growth rates, you have a whole bunch of countries in Africa, followed by Afghanistan, West Bank, and Gaza Strip. None of those places are known for providing immense material wealth to potential parents on a mass scale. If anything, it seems like being too well-off makes you so perfectionist when it comes to having kids that you wind up not having any.
Yeah well those countries are also having crashing birth rates. Everyone is. They are just starting later and from a higher starting point. Whatever is causing it seems to be impacting everyone, no matter the wealth level.
#5
Off the Record / Re: Are we in the opening scen...
Last post by DGuller - January 04, 2026, 10:10:45 PMQuote from: Jacob on January 04, 2026, 09:19:44 PMThe teeming tenements of the past suggest to me that apartment living is not the cause of declining birthrate.I would say that more generally, I find arguments of the form "people are too poor to have kids" unpersuasive. If you look at countries sorted by natural growth rates, you have a whole bunch of countries in Africa, followed by Afghanistan, West Bank, and Gaza Strip. None of those places are known for providing immense material wealth to potential parents on a mass scale. If anything, it seems like being too well-off makes you so perfectionist when it comes to having kids that you wind up not having any.
#6
Off the Record / Re: Are we in the opening scen...
Last post by Jacob - January 04, 2026, 09:19:44 PMThe teeming tenements of the past suggest to me that apartment living is not the cause of declining birthrate.
#7
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Zoupa - January 04, 2026, 08:49:04 PMHomelessness increases by 20% every year in the US, but there is no war in Ba Sing Se.
#8
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Admiral Yi - January 04, 2026, 08:01:11 PMQuote from: The Minsky Moment on January 04, 2026, 05:34:03 PMYou'll need to define what you mean by "low". CPI has been hovering between 2.7 to 3.0 percent since June. That is above the Fed target rate of 2%. Three percent inflation is generally not considered low by 21st century standards.https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
If by "low" you mean well below historically high rates in a broader sense like the 70s-era inflations, than yes it is low. It was also low and declining in 2024 by that standard and yet Biden lost the election on that issue. So "low" doesn't always translate into low in public perception.
Public perception is driven by several decades of historically low inflation rates which set expectations and then the shock of the COVID exit price level increase. Public perceptions are that "prices are high" and thus moderate levels of continued price increases aren't reassuring. Trump did himself no favors by overpromising that he would bring prices down, which was not going to be in the cards.
Public perception is likely not impacted by Trump's leaning on the Fed to lower rates, but that is a serious concern which does raise the risk of future inflation. The US economy is now in a race between what will happen first: inflation driven by loose monetary + fiscal policy + massive private investment boom OR a crash if the AI investment bubble pops.
I found your first argument unpersuasive. As the linked table shows, inflation at or above 2.7% was not at all uncommon during the 21st century.
Your second argument is interesting. I found this graph
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
which shows real wages spiking in 2020 (covid stimulus?), dropping sharply, then continuing the steady pre-covid trend upward. So it seems your theory only makes sense if expectations were fixed by the experience of 2020 exclusively.
this graph combines hourly and salaried workers; a breakout of hourly could yield different results.
#9
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by crazy canuck - January 04, 2026, 07:39:55 PMQuote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2026, 07:35:47 PMQuote from: Zoupa on January 04, 2026, 04:34:47 PMWhy not?
Because communication, ideally, should have a point.
Yes
#10
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Admiral Yi - January 04, 2026, 07:35:47 PMQuote from: Zoupa on January 04, 2026, 04:34:47 PMWhy not?
Because communication, ideally, should have a point.