Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Syt - Today at 03:10:39 PM

It seems the Soviets immediately "recognized" a Finnish puppet government as legitimate when they invaded. Which apparently got picked up as the Finns having surrendered initially.

#2

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by Tamas - Today at 01:39:39 PM

One of the investigative journalist outfits in Hungary has proven that in order to appear to have supporters among young people, Fidesz in Hungary have had a virtual existence of about a 100 fake Facebook profiles created. These no doubt aided by AI have lively profiles, posting about their hobbies, even about relationship drama and obviously beside all the hip stuff they enthusiastically share government propaganda.

They are so convincing that some of them have been able to get real people add them as friends.

[Surprisingly, we find that allowing AI actually increases completion time by 19%--AI tooling slowed developers down. This slowdown also contradicts predictions from experts in economics (39% shorter) and ML (38% shorter).]

#3

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 12:54:21 PM

https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Cornell University study of productivity impact of AI on coding tasks

Despite widespread adoption, the impact of AI tools on software development in the wild remains understudied. We conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to understand how AI tools at the February-June 2025 frontier affect the productivity of experienced open-source developers. 16 developers with moderate AI experience complete 246 tasks in mature projects on which they have an average of 5 years of prior experience. Each task is randomly assigned to allow or disallow usage of early 2025 AI tools. When AI tools are allowed, developers primarily use Cursor Pro, a popular code editor, and Claude 3.5/3.7 Sonnet. Before starting tasks, developers forecast that allowing AI will reduce completion time by 24%. After completing the study, developers estimate that allowing AI reduced completion time by 20%. Surprisingly, we find that allowing AI actually increases completion time by 19%--AI tooling slowed developers down. This slowdown also contradicts predictions from experts in economics (39% shorter) and ML (38% shorter). To understand this result, we collect and evaluate evidence for 20 properties of our setting that a priori could contribute to the observed slowdown effect--for example, the size and quality standards of projects, or prior developer experience with AI tooling. Although the influence of experimental artifacts cannot be entirely ruled out, the robustness of the slowdown effect across our analyses suggests it is unlikely to primarily be a function of our experimental design.

#4

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 12:25:25 PM

I wonder what the point of publishing such stories is.  Bullshit works best when it's not easily falsifiable, the Finns surrendering part would be easily falsifiable pretty quickly.

I don't think it would have been easily or quickly falsifiable in 1939 for all sorts of reasons.

Also this is on the Express. The Daily Mirror's front page on that day was: "FINLAND YIELDS TO REDS: GOVT. GO". I think that may have been the best information available on 30 November 1939 (especially with all the practical and legal restrictions of reporting in wartime).

On 2 December the Express has moved to: "THE WAR GOES ON!"

I'd just add that the Daily Worker (now Morning Star) have: "UPRISING IN FINLAND" (out of interest I kept browsing and see that a few days later their headline is about "SOVIETS LARGE SCALE AID FOR FINNISH PEOPLE'S GOVERNMENT")....plus ca change.

#5

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by DGuller - Today at 12:18:02 PM

I wonder what the point of publishing such stories is.  Bullshit works best when it's not easily falsifiable, the Finns surrendering part would be easily falsifiable pretty quickly.

#6

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Josquius - Today at 12:14:42 PM

The new crop of russian assault infantry.

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1992235930300936365

They've been captured here?
Lucky guys if so. If they're about to go in...poor sods.

#7

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 12:13:21 PM

Plus ca change on Russians targeting a railway station and bombing civilian flats and hotels instead though.

#8

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Valmy - Today at 12:09:36 PM

WWII must be have been very confusing for the subscribers of that newspaper.

#9

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 11:17:21 AM

The new crop of russian assault infantry.

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1992235930300936365

#10

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 10:48:10 AM

I don't think there is a variant universe where Trump is not transactional