Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 07:03:56 AM

It seems that he was a painter and decorator by trade; which is close, but with the name Paul Lumber he really should have trained to be a plumber.

Re his accident; I'm surprised that a painter and decorator was the first to have a fatal accident, as they often work on ladders anyway. Anyway, RIP Mr Lumber, I'm sorry that you lost your life for such a silly thing.

#2

Off the Record / Re: The adventures of AI Faceb...

Last post by mongers - Today at 06:59:40 AM

The Manchester photo will be 10 years ago in three weeks time, pre-brexit indeed.

#3

Off the Record / Re: The adventures of AI Faceb...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 06:34:37 AM

A throwaway gag for a project I'm working on.
Wish there was a free one for videos.

Take it this ws in the prompt?

#4

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 06:30:57 AM

Yeah good point there Zoupa. I agree with Sheilbh as well.

What is frustrating is that the challenge from Russia and the abandonment by Daddy America, at this stage, could be leveraged into a rallying cry of more European unity. Maybe it will happen. I just don't see any movement toward that.

I agree with Zoups again. Although again on those suggestions they require some form of united command (a la NATO) and political willingness to actually do that - and to take a risk for someone else. I think this is the point I've made before I don't think there is, yet, a common, shared European view of the risk. So, for example, will the Romanians be willing to push Russia in order to help deter Russia in the Baltics? Maybe, but perhaps not. I think aside from the equipment that practical "leadership" of the Western alliance in the Cold War was a big positive of the US.

I think your last point is why I am more pessimistic on this. Because I think there's a bit of hand-waving away the political constraints and challenges at an EU level.

What your saying is basically the Delors/van Middelaar theory of the EU advancing through crisis or that series of coups. Faced with very difficult challenges at various points in the post-war, European integration was away to overleap those problems. That's a reading of the process of building the EU that I basically agree with. It's not slow gradual building of layers but imaginative leaps forward in response to moments of crisis like Korea and Suez, the oil shock, the end of the Cold War.

My worry on that front is that I think that process has, in effect, stalled. Whether it was the Eurozone crisis, the migration crisis, covid and post-covid (and I had very high hopes for Next Gen project), the invasion of Ukraine and now Trump II - the EU has not advanced through crisis. Whatever drove that mechanism seems to have broken. It has taken some measures and maybe just enough to keep the show on the road but not much more. But I think the problems are accumulating, the EU is already operating at the very outer reaches of what the treaties can do - but I still don't see the sign of the next advance through crisis. I see, at best, stasis. And I'm not fully sure why.

I'd add that to Zoups point I think Macron is the only European leader who has had an analysis and a solution - and I think did see this as a problem with further integration as a solution. He pushed it in his first term and I think in many ways the failure of that project is the tragedy of Macron (and, possibly, Europe). I don't always agree with him and I think he can be impish in how he expresses it, but I think he's Europe's Cassandra in recent years.

#5

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Josquius - Today at 05:31:29 AM

I'm not sure I agree that they're hoping the clock goes back with a sane leader, though maybe aspects of thinking it will buy them time so things are less critical than they are.
I do see signs Europe recognises the reality and is changing.... though slowly. Very slowly.

#6

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Josquius - Today at 05:22:48 AM

Again I really do think we need some scary training exercises on the Finnish-Russian border.
Speak to Japan about the Northern Territories and arrange some exercises with them practicing amphibious landings in Hokkaido too.
Not that we're going to do anything.... but make Russia spared its resources and remind them where the balance of power truly lies.

[crying that it was in the Soviet sector]

#7

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 05:17:45 AM

I agree that Tallinn is just as important as Berlin. Then again, the Finns could thunder-run to Mourmansk. The Poles could rush Minsk. Romanians could be in Tiraspol in 2 hours. We're not feckless. Exercises simulating that can be a deterrent.

I think that Macron was once again right and that we need strategic ambiguity when it comes to russia. Yes, maybe the French Marines could be in Odesa next month. Never rule out anything. You can just DO things. During the blockade of Berlin, the Soviets built a watchtower right before the landing strip at Tegel I believe, preventing planes from landing safely. The French blew it up the next day. When the Soviet ambassador complained to the French commander, crying that it was in the Soviet sector and "How could you do this?", he responded "With French Sappers and dynamite, Mr Ambassador".

They were in the French sector (albeit operated by the Soviets). 

https://www.nytimes.com/1948/12/17/archives/french-blow-up-towers-of-russias-berlin-radio-temporarily-silence.html

The sentiment is still good though.

#8

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 05:11:07 AM

The Poles could rush Minsk

Hopefully after clearing the Kaliningrad pocket. 

#9

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Tamas - Today at 04:31:40 AM

Yeah good point there Zoupa. I agree with Sheilbh as well.

What is frustrating is that the challenge from Russia and the abandonment by Daddy America, at this stage, could be leveraged into a rallying cry of more European unity. Maybe it will happen. I just don't see any movement toward that.

#10

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Tamas - Today at 04:22:40 AM

The relative silence to that document is indeed deafening. Even if we want to believe that Trump leaving office will magically transport us back to the year 2000, that's still 3 years away.

I wonder if European leadership secretly agree with it?