Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 09:35:24 AM

Alternately a revolutionary regime that's been preparing for a possible regime change war for decades and sits next to an important energy choke point has a lot of leverage if and when it's ready to use it.

That is not the alternative, that is the reality I have been trying to explain to our American friends in this thread.  This was never going to be a conventional war. The Iranians have been preparing for a decentralized asymmetrical war for decades.

It's just that few realized just how effective the Iranians would be at this, including perhaps the Iranians.

Now that the Americans have been shown to be ineffective despite all the flashy expensive military power, the dynamics have changed permanently.

#2

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 09:31:05 AM

Alternately a revolutionary regime that's been preparing for a possible regime change war for decades and sits next to an important energy choke point has a lot of leverage if and when it's ready to use it.

#3

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 09:26:51 AM

Yes, and the research in question was examining the impact of one variable on those life spans.

#4

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 09:24:41 AM

Apparently American bourbon has mainly been replaced by Irish whiskey

Interesting.  Those are quite different flavor profiles.

Yeah, that surprised me too.  I find the Irish whiskies are too light.  I much prefer a good scotch

#5

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 09:20:26 AM

Not sure you can leave if Iran continues to bomb US bases, allies and blocks 15% of the worlds oil in the Gulf.

I get the sense there's an increasing sense of domestic risk in Iran which may balance things. But also I think they sense a chance to really change their strategic position in the region which they're pushing.

Yep, if Trump declares victory and withdraws American forces the Iranians will have no reason to restrain themselves from further attacks on Israel and others.

It's basic schoolyard dynamics now.
The stupid bully has shown they are not as tough as everyone feared.

#6

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Baron von Schtinkenbutt - Today at 09:17:22 AM

Apparently American bourbon has mainly been replaced by Irish whiskey

Interesting.  Those are quite different flavor profiles.

#7

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 09:14:58 AM

Not sure you can leave if Iran continues to bomb US bases, allies and blocks 15% of the worlds oil in the Gulf.

I get the sense there's an increasing sense of domestic risk in Iran which may balance things. But also I think they sense a chance to really change their strategic position in the region which they're pushing.

#8

Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread

Last post by Syt - Today at 08:56:11 AM

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

I was pleasantly surprised. Of course the Indy vs Nazis opening is great nostalgia and there were some fun action sequences, but ultimately I felt it stretched a bit too long after the halfway point (ca. the diving scene). And while Mads Mikkelsen makes for a great baddie and he had neat henchmen, it's not the same as going up against the Wehrmacht or Red Army - wouldn't have minded some CIA/KGB shenanigans, but alas.

But it was for sure a much better send off than Crystal Skull was.

Also, I think Phoebe Waller-Bridge would make a great live action Dr Aphra ... which is basically the role she plays in this

#9

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Duque de Bragança - Today at 08:48:29 AM

I've seen enough to know how the this war ends. The regime stays in place, Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Whether the regime survives the aftermath, I'd say 50-50. If it survives, it's a meh outcome, Iranians are still screwed, same as they were before the war. If it falls, a regular military dictatorship without the religious zeal would be an improvement compared to now.  

I am not sure why you think the regime falling would lead to some peaceful and orderly transition to a military dictatorship.

To be fair to Legbiter, he didn't say it would be a peaceful and orderly transition.

The thing I'm less clear on is how and when the war ends. Will Trump find a way to TACO out of this?

™ Declare Victory and leave ™ ?

#10

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Valmy - Today at 08:02:36 AM

There is also a research in North America showing the difference in mortality rates. I haven't seen a study that talks about dementia though.

They tend to live longer than us just in general though.