Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: Grand unified books thread

Last post by Razgovory - Today at 08:30:46 PM

Is Cliodynamics legit?  Reading stuff by Peter Turchin and It's a bit difficult.  It's like if DGuller wrote history.

#2

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Razgovory - Today at 08:24:25 PM

There's definitely been some similar issues in the US. I remember reading a story in the NYT about a town in Michigan which elected a majority Muslim council and Muslim mayor with the support of progressive activists, who then felt very betrayed when the council voted to ban flying the Pride flag on council buildings.

Well there is always that one town that is the exception.

But as Sav pointed out...the town was over 50%+ immigrants largely from Muslim countries. That is a very specific scenario.

And it doesn't seem like that particular alliance between progressive activists and Islamic conservatives lasted longer than one local election.

But on a national and systematic level all dangerous religions of all sorts are dangerously empowered by conservative policies.

I mean there is the Palestine thing.

#3

Off the Record / Re: The Closing of the America...

Last post by Oexmelin - Today at 08:10:54 PM

The humanities are the cheapest departments in all universities. No labs, no costly infrastructure. Their closures are entirely ideologically motivated.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis, Democrats?

Last post by Razgovory - Today at 08:08:45 PM

He's got a point.  The belief that a country inhabited primarily by Jews is horrible is not a left-right issue.

What makes that country horrible is the same thing that makes our country horrible. They keep re-electing a disgusting criminal as their leader that then goes on to do evil things. I presume not every country with Jews in it does that.

I'll be glad when Netanyahu is gone. Groups like BDS and Students for Justice in Palestine will finally disband when the disgusting criminal is gone.

#5

Off the Record / Re: Norwegian Election

Last post by Valmy - Today at 07:42:34 PM

The first is that you're naive, the sort of person who tells people 'it's never been properly implemented'.

Well they are correct. At no point did the state fade away and an anarchist collectivist utopia ever happen.

But the idea that would ever happen is so ridiculous I don't think Communism ever had a chance. Sort of like Libertarianism or other streams of Anarchism. Just Communism had this totalitarian "temporary" stage that is actually sort of workable if you like living in a totalitarian hellhole.

#6

Off the Record / Re: The Closing of the America...

Last post by Valmy - Today at 07:39:52 PM

Again I'm just struck by wondering what the leaders of universities and higher education think they're for?

Making money.

I blame David F. Swensen for this turn in our Universities' priorities.

#7

Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis, Democrats?

Last post by Valmy - Today at 07:38:28 PM

He's got a point.  The belief that a country inhabited primarily by Jews is horrible is not a left-right issue.

What makes that country horrible is the same thing that makes our country horrible. They keep re-electing a disgusting criminal as their leader that then goes on to do evil things. I presume not every country with Jews in it does that.

#8

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Valmy - Today at 07:36:09 PM

This love of tariffs baffles even a left-winger like me.

It makes perfect sense. Trump, and his supporters, are extremely xenophobic and think all foreigners are inferior and suspect...and probably dangerous criminals or conspiring to screw the United States.

So Trump wants to build a giant wall to insulate us form foreigners.

American Conservatives seem to hate and fear the entire world outside of the 1-2% that are them.

#9

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Valmy - Today at 07:31:06 PM

There's definitely been some similar issues in the US. I remember reading a story in the NYT about a town in Michigan which elected a majority Muslim council and Muslim mayor with the support of progressive activists, who then felt very betrayed when the council voted to ban flying the Pride flag on council buildings.

Well there is always that one town that is the exception.

But as Sav pointed out...the town was over 50%+ immigrants largely from Muslim countries. That is a very specific scenario.

And it doesn't seem like that particular alliance between progressive activists and Islamic conservatives lasted longer than one local election.

But on a national and systematic level all dangerous religions of all sorts are dangerously empowered by conservative policies.

#10

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 07:09:57 PM

Brilliant Pythonesque - what has the ECHR ever done for us



https://www.instagram.com/reel/DOAmhDbCMQV/?igsh=NHh1MHI5Ymw0Y2Vx

Well the ECHR became part of British domestic law in 1998 and I'm not sure it was quite such a seismic moment of Britain from the darkness into the light through the ECHR (I also couldn't help but notice that democracy didn't come up in the lift). There are, astonishingly, even places that have developed those rights without the the ECHR

I think there are real problems with it. A lot, I actually think is down to how British courts have interpreted some of those rights - particularly privacy. But also the way they balance, which is part of the ECHR - in my view they vastly underweight the public interest. Although I think there are also some really serious problems with the ECHR more broadly - there are some cases recently that I really profoundly object to and think are overstepping into what should be the place of democratic politics.

I think with the FT and former Labour Home Secretaries saying the ECHR needs "reform" (very, very difficult/borderline impossible) or to de-couple from the ECHR we are sort of entering the point when "respectable"/"sensible" opinion is starting to acknowledge there's an issue which is a start.

This is where we're missing the next step, of stopping people from going to Libya et al in the first place.
Where are the campaigns telling Sub Saharan Africans how bad life actually is in the UK? - I've mentioned before the chat I had with some Rwandan teachers where they were genuinely shocked to hear how expensive things were in Europe and how little teachers were paid, and that they were actually financially considerably better off at home.
Why aren't we doing more to spread the word of how bad the crossing is?

I know this is hard to believe but life in the UK is better for most people in most of the world.

Maybe not one to be expected right this instant, and rather more one for Europe than the UK, but also how about encouraging development in African countries?- link standards of democracy and human rights to favourable trade deals.

This is lovely in theory - and I think what Europeans have described as their aid efforts. I would note that receiving aid from the EU is conditional on accepting deportations of migrants and taking steps to prevent migration to Europe.

But I think there are two fundamental problems with it now - which I slightly bang on about.

In the West we do not have a development model. We cannot point to a country and say this is how we can help you develop. The best we've got is possibly South Korea or Taiwan and sadly "be a strategically essential Asian country while America fights in Vietnam" is not a replicable model. By contrast China can point to their experience and say, accurately, that they have lifted more people out of poverty in a shorter space of time than any other country in history. They have also developed and strengthened their position as a country.

In part I think that is linked to the second issue which is that I don't think Africans need Europeans lecturing them any more. We've been doing it for a long time and it's time to listen. I don't think it's even about a development offer, I think it's about "voice" and I don't think there's anywhere in the world as solipsistic as Europe. There is no reason the rest of the world should care about European issues, we're not in a position to dictate and we need to develop real partnerships as equals - which means treating the rest of the world as equals (again I'd flag very recent comments by Lula and Widodo on Europe's "neo-colonial" attitudes in negotiations). We're not the metropole any more. Related to that and our theory of development - I think we have majored on "rule of law" and "governance" plus some other slightly fluctuating priorities and we have not had a great development success. China's focus is on physical infrastructure which seems to be getting better results.

I've mentioned before but I have a friend who worked in a very aid-dependent, sub-Saharan African state with civil conflict for several years. And his recurring theme was that speaking to government and speaking to local leaders - Chinese authorities ask what they need (e.g. a road, an airport, a port) and offer to build that plus the thing China want. Western authorities and aid agencies talk about wanting partnership but it tends to be actually they set out what their policy goals are - these fluctuate depending on the political focus back home. He has supported on trying to get funding for refugees and displaced people in that country and explains that a lot of that job is basically re-purposing a project. So how do you make "pay for a refugee camp" tie into sustainability and energy transition goals for DfID this year, and then make the same project ("pay for a refugee camp") into a project with clear violence against women and girls goals the next year.

It's not to say those policy goals are bad but they change regularly and are being dictated by us. I also think there probably needs to be a conversation about international development aid (the UK was genuinely a world leader on this - sadly no more). Is it there to help develop countries, is it there to advance our interests or is it there to aid the most needy? As I think those all look quite different.

If we're continuing to boost up asylum and turn it into this overly important issue then that is fighting on ground of Reform's choosing. Its a mistake to go too deep into this. Damage can be limited but Labour will never win.
The focus should be on delivering what people want in areas where Reform doesn't have a hope in hell of competing.

I don't think it's a choice. But I don't think you can do politics by content moderation or just not talking about things. I think you always have to make your case and in government show you're able to do it. As I say I don't think it's about immigration I think it's about control and the sense that things are not in control/the state can't control things. I think it's similar to the low-level crime and anti-social behaviour and I think it's really corrosive. (But again - state capacity is my explanation for everything )

I think the US is instructive on this as I think it's where we're going if the mainstream parties don't grip it. I think we're reaching a point where there's little to no tolerance for illegal border crossings.

edit- just read a fact today. Immigration is down by half in the past year.... but politics has moved the other way.

Yeah I've flagged and it's largely changes from Sunak - but it's moved from the highest ever year, to the second highest ever year.

Though I'd also raise the point that this is just the tip of the ice berg. A tiny fraction of a fraction of stuff on twitter faces any consequence. I'd wager odds are good the amount of twitter-hate that gets prosecuted is nothing next to the more conventional crimes people moan about.

I can't see centralised stats on this. But as a comparison shoplifting is increasing rapidly - it's at record levels now and the British Retail Consortium say the stats of reports of shoplifting is significantly undercounting (because people don't believe the police will do anything).

This is not a good comparison as only one police force. But best I can do. In the five years to 2023 there were in total 15,000 arrests by the Met for shoplifting.

Another example is bicycle theft (focused in London but not London-specific) - the Lib Dems did some research and found that in 2023 there were about 80,000 reports and around 1,000 arrests.