Quote from: Sheilbh on October 05, 2025, 06:05:11 PMI don't know about natural advantages - I'm not sure have that many compared to, say, Canada or Australia.
QuoteBut I think there are a lot of self-imposed constraints we could choose to ease. Also there's loads of quite alarming news about China in the UK recently, but it is interesting in illustrating where our relative strengths are. There's a lot of focus by China on AI, material science, medicine/life sciences/pharma and aerospace in the UK. Those are areas where we have a really strong base. We've got very good research universities, trusted courts and professional services, strong culture sector etc. That's a solid base but we need to work from it and snap out of the "I would simply be Germany" dreams too many policymakers hold.I see where you're coming from there. Trouble is with this path the working class get left out which means we head down the far right death spiral.
QuoteYeah. I think that's fair. Japan's bond market is far more domestic than the UK's (about 85% domestic v 70% domestic) - and we're about to get a lot more reliant on international bondholders and shorter term debt as the defined benefit pension schemes wind down as they were a very reliable market for 30 year debt.
QuoteBut even in Japan there are challenges. Interest on debt is up to 3% from a pre-pandmic low of 0.2%. Most tellingly though servicing debt accounts for about 22% of the Japanese budget. That's compared with 8-10% of the UK budget. Japan spends signficantly more on debt redemption and interest than on education, public works and defence combined. So even Japan's debt stability is a bit of an open question in a post-QE/central bank funded world.I'm surprised at this. Not education. But public works seems to be something where Japan spends a tonne.
QuoteI think the slightly bigger problem is that solar is so good. It is the future of renewables. In part because you've got China building it. But also there's a really strong economy of scale - so roughly every doubling of production reduces actual module price by about 20%. It's totally modular and pretty passive once installed. The generation cycle is daily - that 24 cycle is really good for (current) battery technology. Also it's very low cost to operate - once you buy the kit and install it the rough costs of operation and maintenance is around 7-10% of the cost of electricity.
That's all fantastic globally in a big picture kind of way. It's not great for BritainThe problem is Britain's latitude is really, really shit for this given the daily cycle - generation would collapse at exactly the point we consume most energy. So we'd need to massively overproduce solar and batteries for it to work. We've looked at things like building solar in Morocco or Spain with interconnectors - again it's very expensive and the subsea attack risk is very high.
QuoteWe do have a lot of wind. The problem is there is no learning rate for offshore - depending on which study you either see a very weak learning rate. There's on piece of research in the UK that actually shows a negative learning curve - it is becoming more expensive per unit the more we make (offshore wind isn't viable on the scale it is in the UK in many other places - so I'm not sure how much of this is structural v our unique ability to create incredibly expensive, bespoke solutions that somehow don't work).That is weird. Definitely seems to be another indicator of the Anglo infrastructure disease.
QuoteThe other really good option would be hydro - but we don't have the geography for that either. So maybe tidal. My understanding is the UK is one of the few places in the world where tidal could work. I can't remember the details but it was a map and the factors where the size of tides - high to low - which needs to be big for tidal to work, plus dense power network and proximity to population centres (all present in the UK). But that's tech that still isn't really viable at scale (yet).Yes, the lack of progress on tidal is really frustrating. A lot of the schemes I've read about sound really good all round. But there's just something not coming off.
QuoteThis is where I think that the UK really, really needs to focus on nuclear if we want decarbonised power. Wind has a role to play, so does some solar (particularly in their respective seasons) - but wind is nowhere near as viable a solution as solar is and solar isn't viable in Britain.Would be nice. Maybe this RR micro-reactor stuff will lead somewhere.
QuoteYeah. I think AI has the potential to do to certain sectors what the 70s and 80s did to industry. We've already seen a drop in graduate recruitment by about a third this year - part of that is also the increase in employers' NI, but I can't help but thing AI is a factor there. I think those entry level jobs are exposed.Potential for sure.
QuoteI think pre-Trump America is gone. I think in a way the Biden presidency was almost cruel to Europe in lulling people into a false sense of security that the status quo would be restored - I think it's over. Whether it's a Democrat or a Republican, the style and politeness may change - but I think America does not want to be continuing to be the security guarantor for the third, sixth, seventh, eighth richest countries in the world (plus others) - their focus is going to be the Pacific. And I think protectionism is here to stay.Yes, probably so.
QuoteOn the 30s I'm not sure - millions of people still live in those homes and use those train lines to get into work every day (I used to live in a 30s Homes for Heroes block and it was fantastic - just very well constructed, solid home). Also my impression is there are far fewer legacy problems from those days than post-war building. In the UK and around the world we have huge costs from post-construction: asbestos, cladding, RAAC, the structural flaws from Ronan Point still unfixed in thousands of buildings around the world.
QuoteIt's already legally required for employers to do a right to work check using one of the Home Office's IDs.
QuoteI also think your ease about it is possibly white European traveling in Europe privilegeMaybe. I had to carry ID in Japan too, and I stood out there, but it wasn't a big deal.
QuoteEdit: Although I think digital IDs are already dead. Tech companies saying they're not interested. Government not really building a case, Cabinet minister briefing against it. And a policy going from +35% to -15% approval purely because it's been proposed by this government and this Prime Minister. I think that's possibly the biggest reason to get rid of Starmer. I think he's already so unpopular (like Sunak) that he's now got the "reverse Midas touch" and anything he says, even if it was popular beforehand, will be opposed by most people.
Quote from: Sheilbh on October 05, 2025, 12:18:01 PMHaving said all that I am fiercely against any form of selection, which is not necessary (and not part of those reforms). I also find the idea of a "gifted" program for toddlers insane and morally wrong.
Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 05, 2025, 07:56:38 PMhttps://jcpa.org/article/demographics-dont-lie-the-christian-population-in-pa-and-hamas-controlled-areas-is-declining/#:~:text=Besides%20the%20physical%20property%20desecration,into%20the%20general%20Muslim%20population.Quote from: Razgovory on October 05, 2025, 07:53:11 PMNone of this tells me they are well tolerated by Hamas or the PA who also take their land without compensation, beat, rape and kill them.
What is your source for this allegation? I have never heard of it.
QuotePalestinian Christians report systematic employment discrimination, forcing many to leave their communities to seek opportunities elsewhere. Studies show Christians in the West Bank feel excluded from leadership positions, weakening their social influence.29 A 2022 study indicated a strong desire among Gaza's Christian population to emigrate, twice as strong as that of Muslims. This explains how the Christian population of Gaza dwindled from 5,000 people before Hamas took control to just 1,000 in October 2023. They cited economic and social issues, corruption, security concerns, and religious persecution since Hamas took control in 2007. Reports document violence and discrimination against Christians in Gaza, leading to a significant decline in population.30
Palestinian Christians have also encountered significant obstacles in housing and property rights, both purchasing and selling land. Even internationally recognized holy sites in the West Bank are threatened, vandalized, and desecrated by the PA without consequence.31
This has been a long-standing practice, with Fatah and Arafat's intelligence network intimidating and maltreating the Christian population in Bethlehem with extortion, and confiscation of land and property. They "left them to the mercy of street gangs and other criminal activity, with no protection."32 The PA's judicial system also does not ensure equal protection to Christian landowners. In Bethlehem, a Muslim family from Hebron took possession of the Christian Comtsieh family's land and built a business center atop it without permission. While the Comtsieh family initially won in court, the judge reversed his judgment with no due course.33 In January 2022, a large group of masked men carrying sticks and iron bars attacked Christian brothers Daoud and Daher Nassar on their farm near Bethlehem. The Palestinian courts have worked to confiscate the family farm in their possession since Ottoman times.34
Christian businesses are systematically boycotted and extorted, marginalizing Christian families and pushing them toward financial ruin, with many leaving for survival.35
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