Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by HVC - Today at 11:14:17 AM

Krugman has a writeup on how the vast oil reserves of Venezuela may be somewhat overstated: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-emperors-new-oil-wealth

The two key points IMO are:

You may have heard that Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves — 300 billion barrels. You probably don't know that Venezuela's reported oil reserves tripled while Hugo Chavez was president. This increase, from roughly 100 billion to 300 billion barrels, didn't reflect major new discoveries or exploration. Instead, it reflected the Chavez government's decision to reclassify the country's Orinoco Belt heavy oil as "proved" — oil that can be recovered with reasonable certainty under existing economic and operating conditions

and

As Torsten Slok of Apollo, who recently made this point, notes, "Much of the oil is extra-heavy, which has low recovery and a high cost to produce." This suggests that Venezuela's claims to have immense usable oil reserves were politically motivated hype.

Interesting to think they might have oversold their own overthrow.

Not the first time Trumps gone bankrupt making bad real estate deals. Although it would be his first time to do it to a country. But if anyone can do it it's a guy that many times over failed at being a casino owner.

#2

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Josquius - Today at 11:03:55 AM

Krugman has a writeup on how the vast oil reserves of Venezuela may be somewhat overstated: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-emperors-new-oil-wealth

The two key points IMO are:

You may have heard that Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves — 300 billion barrels. You probably don't know that Venezuela's reported oil reserves tripled while Hugo Chavez was president. This increase, from roughly 100 billion to 300 billion barrels, didn't reflect major new discoveries or exploration. Instead, it reflected the Chavez government's decision to reclassify the country's Orinoco Belt heavy oil as "proved" — oil that can be recovered with reasonable certainty under existing economic and operating conditions

and

As Torsten Slok of Apollo, who recently made this point, notes, "Much of the oil is extra-heavy, which has low recovery and a high cost to produce." This suggests that Venezuela's claims to have immense usable oil reserves were politically motivated hype.

Interesting to think they might have oversold their own overthrow.

#3

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - Today at 10:51:03 AM

UAE deems UK universities have too high a risk of Islamist indoctrination, cancels scholarships

Muslim brotherhood influence, as expected. It's a plague on our houses, as the French have also reported.
But till there's people denying there's a problem.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 10:20:38 AM

It would take many years I think and the oil companies would surely drag their heels as well.

#5

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by HVC - Today at 10:17:03 AM

There was a plentiful supply of oil in 2025 and the price fell from 79$ to 63$. This is with Russia, Iran and Venezuela being sanctioned and also a generally weak dollar. If the price falls further then shale oil production in the USA becomes unprofitable (the breakeven cost seems to be between 45$ and 70$ a barrel). I just can't see why the oil companies would want to waste money investing in an unstable country given these facts.

I suppose Venezuelan oil could substitute for oil from Alberta if Trump wanted to put the squeeze on Canada?

I guess eventually, but do they have the port and logistics infrastructure in place in the US?

#6

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 10:13:53 AM

I suppose Venezuelan oil could substitute for oil from Alberta if Trump wanted to put the squeeze on Canada?

If the Americans find somebody to invest a lot of money and time into building up the necessary infrastructure to replace Alberta's oil supply, sure.

#7

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 10:05:59 AM

Link https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66944

#8

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 10:03:09 AM

There was a plentiful supply of oil in 2025 and the price fell from 79$ to 63$. This is with Russia, Iran and Venezuela being sanctioned and also a generally weak dollar. If the price falls further then shale oil production in the USA becomes unprofitable (the breakeven cost seems to be between 45$ and 70$ a barrel). I just can't see why the oil companies would want to waste money investing in an unstable country given these facts.

I suppose Venezuelan oil could substitute for oil from Alberta if Trump wanted to put the squeeze on Canada?

#9

Gaming HQ / Re: The Miscellaneous PC & vid...

Last post by Grey Fox - Today at 09:58:55 AM

Now go checkout actual game from the first half of the 'OOs and report.

#10

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 09:52:09 AM

'I don't need international law': Trump says power constrained only by 'my own morality'

Indeed, and with his "morality" it won't be long before he demands a annual tribute of virgins from somewhere or other.