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#1

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 02:56:47 PM

The Swedish pension fund Alecta has sold off ~$7.5B Euro worth of US Treasuries.

In isolation it's probably not much, but if it's the beginning of a trend then... well, then it's the beginning of a trend.

Actually, I'm curious. There's been talk of Europe collectively dumping US treasuries in one go and that that would be a big knock to the US economy (putting it into a massive recession, inflation, and/ or a depression).

What's the outlook if holders of US treasuries start selling them in a less co-ordinated fashion but still wanting to get rid of them over time? What's the likely impact on the US economy? On the world economy?

#2

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 02:39:50 PM

Vivian Motzfeldt (Greenland's foreign affairs minister) speaks about the Greenlandish perspective (about 8 minutes):

Worth checking out if you're considering some of the various "they can just pay off the Greenlanders" or "the US is liberating the poor colonized Greenlanders from the evil Danes" perspectives that have come up over time.

#3

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Maladict - Today at 02:37:41 PM

Seems like Rutte is continuing with the Daddy Trump approach. Just because it hasn't worked at all doesn't mean it won't suddenly start working, I guess.

It's just what he does.

#4

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Valmy - Today at 02:34:13 PM

Don't be friends with us.

But Trump already betrayed the Kurds in his first term. So it wasn't like they wouldn't have seen this coming.

#5

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Norgy - Today at 02:32:43 PM

Unsurprisingly, another ally, the Kurdish forces in Syria, are left behind.

From the NYT:

For more than a decade, they were the United States' closest allies in Syria, fighting against the Islamic State, guarding American bases and running internment camps and prisons that held tens of thousands of jihadists and their relatives.

That alliance is now disintegrating. The United States has turned away from its longtime allies, the Syrian Democratic Forces, or S.D.F., and thrown its support behind the new government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Without U.S. backing, the S.D.F., a Kurdish-led force, has wobbled and beaten a retreat as the government moves troops into northeastern Syria to seize control, ending a standoff that has endured since President al-Sharaa took power in December 2024.


The collapse of the S.D.F. marks a turning point in Syria's political transition after the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad and now paves the way for the government to take over the strategic region, its oil fields and rich agricultural lands.

The pivot by Washington is a huge win for Mr. al-Sharaa, who has struggled to pull the country back together, as well as for Turkey, which vehemently opposed American support for the S.D.F. and backed Mr. al-Sharaa.

[It is possible that the various power brokers already have a post-Trump plan worked out and it'll run like a well-oiled machine.]

#6

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Tamas - Today at 02:08:34 PM

The succession mechanics of the MAGA movement is unclear to me. It is possible that the various power brokers already have a post-Trump plan worked out and it'll run like a well-oiled machine. It is also possible that it will be an all out shit-fight.

LOL no.

This is a tail wags the dog scenario. It will be a rush to attract the MAGA base by being as Trumpian as possible.

I don't know exactly given we've already seen some daylight appear between what is Trumpian and what is MAGA. That's what has given Trump so many headaches with things like Epstein.

Yeah but what you are saying there is that it might be enough for them to cater to the likes of TMG, not a good scenario, still

#7

Off the Record / Re: It Was Nice Knowing You Al...

Last post by HVC - Today at 01:59:35 PM

Right now I'm feeling slightly less pessimistic than last night.

He realized he can't just order 5* generals around to do whatever he wants.

Not this batch. Give him a year or so to shuffle them out.

#8

Off the Record / Re: It Was Nice Knowing You Al...

Last post by viper37 - Today at 01:52:39 PM

Right now I'm feeling slightly less pessimistic than last night.

He realized he can't just order 5* generals around to do whatever he wants.

#9

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 01:52:17 PM

LOL no.

This is a tail wags the dog scenario. It will be a rush to attract the MAGA base by being as Trumpian as possible.

I mean, I think that that is the most likely scenario also - but, it's not impossible.

My hope is, of course, that in the rush to find the right rhetorical pitch and stab various competitors to climb to the top coincides with enough other headwinds and drop in public sentiment that they damage their hold on power.

#10

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by PJL - Today at 01:34:30 PM

BTW why is Starmer not at Davos?

Also this new leftie star, the leader of the Greens. He was calling to leave NATO in light of the Greenland stuff. That's too much Corbyn-channelling for me, no way I am ever voting for him.

Normally, I'd agree with you, but it's become less of an issue when you see Trump doing a lot of damage to NATO and threatening to destroy it completely over Greenland.