Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: Hungarian Politics

Last post by Tamas - Today at 03:08:13 PM

Here is a quick example, Peter Magyar posed for a photo next to a poster depicting him as an evil Two Face: one half in a traditional Hungarian vest, the other half (gasp!) covered in an EU flag and sporting a Ukrainian one as well (this is supposed to show him as evil):

#2

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Tamas - Today at 03:04:59 PM

The relationship is a bit special.

 

[EO '257 contains no finding that there even is an overall balance-of payments deficit, which considers not just transactions in goods but also services, capital investments, and other international transactions.]

#3

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 02:50:40 PM

From a brief Trump's DOJ submitted in the tariff case, discussing Section 122, which Trump just used to authorize across the board tariffs of 10%, or 15% depending on which brain fart finds it's way into an EO:

More specifically, the reciprocal tariffs rest on the finding that a goods trade deficit has given rise to a variety of domestic problems centered on manufacturing deficiencies.  See supra at pp. 26-28.  It is those problems which underlie the national emergency declared with respect to the unusual and extraordinary threat, thus triggering application of IEEPA. EO '257 contains no finding that there even is an overall balance-of payments deficit, which considers not just transactions in goods but also services, capital investments, and other international transactions. Moreover, and sufficient for our conclusion that the statutes do not contradict each other as relevant here, the reciprocal tariffs do not in any way focus on "fundamental international payments problems."  Trade Act of 1974 § 122(a) [§ 2132] (emphasis added); see generally EO '257. Such problems concern the payments (financial, cash) side of the accounting statement, which involves the reserves of currencies (or their substitutes like gold) and the operation of foreign-exchange markets that determine the ability of persons from one country to acquire another country's currency needed to make the foreign purchases or investments reflected in the current and capital accounts. That is the nature of the problem underlying the 1971 Presidential Proclamation on which section 122 was based, . . .and section 122 is limited to some subset of such "fundamental international payments problems,"

A lot of words here but key takeaway is that the Trump administration represented to the Court that the US was not suffering a balance of payments (BOP) crisis that could justify using Section 122.

It further connects the meaning of BOP crisis to Nixon's 1971 proclamation, which defined the problem as one of insufficient monetary reserves.  It will be hard to declare a crisis exists in that dimension.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 02:47:23 PM

Mandelson also now arrested

Purely from the emails that have been released in the latest Epstein dump I think it was impossible to see him not getting arrested for this.

Worth noting, as I think this will leak into conspiracy theory (especially online and especially Americans where the rules are very different) that what the media can report now is very, very restricted. It's not full contempt of court reporting restrictions which kicks in after charging, but it is likely there will be a fair bit of radio silence on these stories now.

From their own reporting it doesn't sound like they asked him to leave. Per Hannah Beachler, it wasn't the only time it happened and sounds like he was still around in some capacity after the show given when she reported it was directed at her.

That's fair. I think it is so difficult. If he wasn't asked to leave then he probably chose to leave halfway through the ceremony where the biopic of his life was being awarded. To me that doesn't feel like he was prioritising himself - although I suppose you could almost see it the other way in that. I think he's said he's "deeply mortified" and you can almost see from the disability perspective that that is the experience of the disease and he left.

Totally agree on the people at the event although I slightly wonder the extent to which they did or should have warned people (particularly hosts) that there's someone with the type of Tourette's where they say taboo, obscene, socially unacceptable things as part of their tic. But then I don't know - I mean it doesn't feel right that you have to warn people there's someone with x disability in advance.

On the other hand the BBC excuse that they just didn't hear it because they were working in a truck is risible.

Edit: Incidentally on the by-election - not particularly keen on the Greens social media video in Urdu with pictures of David Lammy and Netanyah, plus Starmer and Modi. As I say I don't go all in on worrying about communitarianism, but all the big parties do this - there was a by-election where Labour ran leaflets about voting for politicians who are "really on your side" next to a picture of Johnson meeting Modi, the Tories are developing a track record of communitarian campaigns in constituencies targetting Hindu British Indians. Doesn't feel like this sort of thing will end anywhere good.

#5

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 02:30:13 PM

A new article in Nature.



Machine learning is good, useful, etc. But shoving what is basically an autocomplete script into everything and calling it AI...

It's like if Silicon Valley got absolutely oneshotted by Clippy back in 1997 (OMG it gives you tips on what to do next! Hail the Omnissiah!!!) and just decided to pour a literal trillion into it.



Here's the Nature article. How AI slop is causing a crisis in computer science

#6

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by The Brain - Today at 02:04:32 PM

The relationship is a bit special.

#7

Gaming HQ / Re: Real RPGs, none of that ne...

Last post by The Brain - Today at 02:03:35 PM

I have some of the old books (in Swedish), don't remember if I ever actually played it though.

#8

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by HVC - Today at 02:02:39 PM

I believe we are supposed to simply capitulate when faced with the awe-inspiring power of the USA under the command of the mighty Trump.

Personally I think we should tell him to fuck off. But Im not a wise man.

No. Surrendering and asking for a peace treaty never works. He never feels bound by a peace treaty.

So there is really no choice but to be hostile.

Sad but true.

They can't be hostile to both the EU and the US. Bad timing for the UK really to hitch their wagon to the wrong side. At least Canada has the excuse of a few decades of good times,

#9

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Valmy - Today at 02:01:04 PM

I believe we are supposed to simply capitulate when faced with the awe-inspiring power of the USA under the command of the mighty Trump.

Personally I think we should tell him to fuck off. But Im not a wise man.

No. Surrendering and asking for a peace treaty never works. He never feels bound by a peace treaty.

So there is really no choice but to be hostile.

Sad but true.

#10

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:55:09 PM

I believe we are supposed to simply capitulate when faced with the awe-inspiring power of the USA under the command of the mighty Trump

It's your call, but just keep in mind that placating the man doesn't get you better treatment.  At best, you get a "deal" which is pretty shitty to begin with and then quickly abandoned, because doing the deal the first time causes him to lose all respect.

Trump's new Section 122 duties stack on top of general MFN duties previously in effect and thus he has already violated the trade agreements with the EU and UK.  But maybe third time's the charm?