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#1
Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...
Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 12:37:47 AMThere is also some sort of modernisation programme going on; a tilt towards unmanned vessels, drones etc etc. I'm mainly aware of this from a speech by the head of the RN https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news/2025/september/11/20250911-first-sea-lord-outlines-future-of-the-royal-navy-at-dsei , it sounds promising, but part of his job is to maintain morale in the service of course.
#2
Off the Record / Re: Iran War
Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 12:32:44 AMPipelines are also chokepoints and the infrastructure is vulnerable to attack; maybe the Arab states could build these pipelines and, 20 years later, a new war will have broken out and we (or our replacements) will be discussing whether the Straits of Hormuz are a viable alternative export route.
#3
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 12:27:56 AMI'm not so sure. What did Britain concede to Trump anyway? Just some smooth-talking from Starmer; couldn't have done it myself but I think Starmer was right to try.
So Starmer has been polite and Trump has displayed his usual boorish zero-class oafishness. Trump has united the country, something very rare in the UK these days, even the comments over at the Daily Mail are sharply critical of him. Being "roasted" by a low-class imbecile doesn't really matter to Starmer; the relationship with the USA does matter of course, but Starmer has allowed Trump to put himself firmly in the wrong, which may be useful when the USA changes tack under a new administration.
So Starmer has been polite and Trump has displayed his usual boorish zero-class oafishness. Trump has united the country, something very rare in the UK these days, even the comments over at the Daily Mail are sharply critical of him. Being "roasted" by a low-class imbecile doesn't really matter to Starmer; the relationship with the USA does matter of course, but Starmer has allowed Trump to put himself firmly in the wrong, which may be useful when the USA changes tack under a new administration.
#4
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Valmy - Today at 12:01:51 AMTrying to charm or buddy up to Trump thinking you will get jackshit in return is basically this meme in action:
#5
Off the Record / Re: Iran War
Last post by Jacob - April 03, 2026, 11:46:15 PMQuote from: OttoVonBismarck on April 03, 2026, 08:27:49 PMThere's actually still pipelines covering some of the same routes (partially), as well as a pipeline between Kirkuk in Iraq through Turkey to the Mediterranean, these pipelines have a capacity far too limited to be a serious player in the current situation, but there's not a practical reason much of the Gulf oil production couldn't be piped across Iraq, and there's far less of a political reason that it couldn't now than in the more recent past.
I mean, I'd probably explore it if I was in a leadership position in any of those countries... but it's not like it's guaranteed that just because Iraq and Syria are amenable to the GCC countries right now, they'll continue to be so.
Thinking on it, I'd also suspect that that kind of pipeline would increase conflict in Iraq. I expect Iran would want to go as hard as they could on proxies if it meant controlling the pipeline, and think other players - like Israel and Turkey - would want to exert influence.
There might be some complexities there.
#6
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Syt - April 03, 2026, 11:20:17 PM
#7
Off the Record / Re: Iran War
Last post by Zanza - April 03, 2026, 08:45:26 PMMost of the oil goes to Southeast Asia though, which is not practical in the Mediterranean. Also all the other products they make like LNG, helium, fertilizer etc. would need additional pipelines and for LNG huge plants at the point of shipping. Dubai is a big container port too.
#8
Off the Record / Re: Iran War
Last post by OttoVonBismarck - April 03, 2026, 08:27:49 PMI don't know that it's ever been that feasible for a purely naval force to defeat this kind of naval choke point that is leveraging ground assets. As we all know from EU4 and general history, the Øresundstolden were a thing and the only times they really got suspended is when some power (namely Sweden) whipped Denmark's ass bad enough in a war that Denmark a) lost control of its provinces in southern Sweden and b) had to agree via treaty to not attempt to levy the dues on Swedish vessels. And of course that war involved a Swedish army marching into Copenhagen--something that often will bring a country to terms.
Even when a hostile power is using traditional naval assets to do things like harass shipping with piracy, it is rare that a purely naval campaign attains a lasting victory--most of the great pirate states of history were only suppressed when the land from which they operated was conquered and subjugated.
I don't really know that any of this is particularly deep cut knowledge, in fact I strongly suspect a High Schooler of decent historical knowledge would have known Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz during any war. Not least of all because it has been such a well known thing it has been repeatedly stated for 40 years anytime the topic has come up.
What is tremendously stupid is that Trump clearly gave zero consideration to it--one has to wonder if he wasn't told of the possibility or if he was told and dismissed it. Either way it's a huge failure of Trump's leadership. If he wasn't told, it means he has so insulated himself with worshipful sycophants that none of them dared to bring up something that would be "bad vibes" for Donnie's First War. If he was told, it just means the dude is dumb as fuck, but that's also kind of well known. I suspect if he was told, he wasn't argued with over it--whoever telling him perhaps mentioning it in passing and, when noticing it didn't titillate Donnie it was a topic best left unexplored.
I do think the Middle East oil powers no matter what happens to end the war, have to consider long term permanent alternatives to the Strait. While the U.S. is the chaos agent right now, Iran is no choir boy and this exposes fully how vulnerable these petrostates are to the Strait being closed.
When the Middle East was in a period of greater calm there was a vast oil pipeline that ran from the southeast of the Arabian peninsula northwest through KSA along its northern border with Iraq, Syria and Lebanon all the way to the Mediterranean Sea. While the relationship between Iran and its Arab neighbors is at an all time low, the various Arab states are on the best terms they've been on in decades--Iraq not openly hostile to the Gulf States, a leadership in Syria that is broadly accepted by the Gulf powers, Qatar and the other Gulf States putting their enmity aside as of late etc.
There's actually still pipelines covering some of the same routes (partially), as well as a pipeline between Kirkuk in Iraq through Turkey to the Mediterranean, these pipelines have a capacity far too limited to be a serious player in the current situation, but there's not a practical reason much of the Gulf oil production couldn't be piped across Iraq, and there's far less of a political reason that it couldn't now than in the more recent past.
Even when a hostile power is using traditional naval assets to do things like harass shipping with piracy, it is rare that a purely naval campaign attains a lasting victory--most of the great pirate states of history were only suppressed when the land from which they operated was conquered and subjugated.
I don't really know that any of this is particularly deep cut knowledge, in fact I strongly suspect a High Schooler of decent historical knowledge would have known Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz during any war. Not least of all because it has been such a well known thing it has been repeatedly stated for 40 years anytime the topic has come up.
What is tremendously stupid is that Trump clearly gave zero consideration to it--one has to wonder if he wasn't told of the possibility or if he was told and dismissed it. Either way it's a huge failure of Trump's leadership. If he wasn't told, it means he has so insulated himself with worshipful sycophants that none of them dared to bring up something that would be "bad vibes" for Donnie's First War. If he was told, it just means the dude is dumb as fuck, but that's also kind of well known. I suspect if he was told, he wasn't argued with over it--whoever telling him perhaps mentioning it in passing and, when noticing it didn't titillate Donnie it was a topic best left unexplored.
I do think the Middle East oil powers no matter what happens to end the war, have to consider long term permanent alternatives to the Strait. While the U.S. is the chaos agent right now, Iran is no choir boy and this exposes fully how vulnerable these petrostates are to the Strait being closed.
When the Middle East was in a period of greater calm there was a vast oil pipeline that ran from the southeast of the Arabian peninsula northwest through KSA along its northern border with Iraq, Syria and Lebanon all the way to the Mediterranean Sea. While the relationship between Iran and its Arab neighbors is at an all time low, the various Arab states are on the best terms they've been on in decades--Iraq not openly hostile to the Gulf States, a leadership in Syria that is broadly accepted by the Gulf powers, Qatar and the other Gulf States putting their enmity aside as of late etc.
There's actually still pipelines covering some of the same routes (partially), as well as a pipeline between Kirkuk in Iraq through Turkey to the Mediterranean, these pipelines have a capacity far too limited to be a serious player in the current situation, but there's not a practical reason much of the Gulf oil production couldn't be piped across Iraq, and there's far less of a political reason that it couldn't now than in the more recent past.
#9
Off the Record / Re: Iran War
Last post by Legbiter - April 03, 2026, 08:22:58 PMQuote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on April 03, 2026, 01:39:41 PMApparantly the French got a ship out of the Persian Gulf. Through the tollbooth of course.
Art of the Deal (in yuan probably). See, Euros can open the Strait.
#10
Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread
Last post by Jacob - April 03, 2026, 08:18:23 PMIt certainly indicates that the FOMO has abated a bit