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#1

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by DGuller - Today at 12:17:29 AM

OK, that sounds like a different argument than the one you were making previously.

It's the same damn argument I made in the very first post.   For reference:

The issue where tenants with eviction history can't find an apartment is also part of a much bigger problem not tied to homelessness.  It's one of the older AI problems I was always concerned about, where many seemingly independent actors all buy a vendor solution, and in effect become a monopolist even without intending to do so.

At individual level, it makes sense to screen out tenants with a bad "tenant score", whatever the reasons happen to be.  At a collective level, though, people who fall on the wrong side of the model, either for good reasons, or for reasons of being an unlucky residual, get frozen out of the market entirely.  Previously you may find some luck with some landlord, but if all of them now use same or similar solutions to screen out potential nightmare tenants, then these potential nightmare tenants are fucked.

In car insurance, we have insurers of last resort or risk pools, because we understand that even justifiably bad risks often need a car to functional in a US society.  That's why there are various schemes to force insurers to deal with them, even if all the good models as well as common sense tells us they're a loss.  I think it's way past time the same concept was extended to housing, or access to financial services.

Out of curiosity, what would be an example of a bad tenant that was unfairly rated?

The word "fair" is actually very loaded.  Even people in good faith can view it differently, and there are a lot of people right now hostile to AI that are using it in very bad faith.  I will avoid using this word here.

Based on the context, I think you're asking for an example of where an information about a tenant or a tenant score from a model would provide a misleading picture of the tenant's actual risk.  If that is what you're asking, a simple example would be a tenant with $100k in bank account forgetting their rent autopay card has expired, and having a landlord or their management company file an eviction notice first and resolving it later.  Even if you get it resolved, the case is now public record.  It's a clerical error, but frankly an understandable one, and not one that indicates financial unreliability.

#2

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Admiral Yi - October 08, 2025, 11:21:24 PM

OK, that sounds like a different argument than the one you were making previously.

Out of curiosity, what would be an example of a bad tenant that was unfairly rated?

#3

Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread

Last post by mongers - October 08, 2025, 11:12:06 PM

'The Godfather' - on first viewing, that's one awesome film; perfect cinematography and all of the rest.

I'm assuming Robert Duvall won an Oscar?

Edit:
looked it up, Brando got the main gone, the other three were all up for supporting.

#4

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by DGuller - October 08, 2025, 10:54:17 PM

Yes, the one common thread is that information is disseminated.  The bad tenant and the bad driver and the welcher might prefer that information not be disseminated, but everyone on the other side of the deal is happy to have it.  There's nothing unfair or unjust about the legal acquisition of infomation and acting on it.

I'll go back to one of my earlier points, in that an individual may just be an unlucky residual of a statistical model.  What you call "information" may be lot less deterministic than you make it sound.  Models are directionally right on average if they're competently built, but they may still be systematically wrong on an individual level.  Car insurance company doesn't observe you every second you're behind the wheel, they estimate whether you're a "good driver" or a "bad driver" based on some criteria, which are valid but incomplete.

In the past the "models" were the human judgment.  Human judgment is faulty, usually much more faulty than a statistical model, but they're faulty in a diversified way.  One human would get you wrong one way, another would get you wrong in a different way, a third one would get you exactly right.  Somewhere along the way someone will lease you an apartment, or give you a job, or write you an insurance policy.

These days everyone will estimate your risk the same, but that doesn't mean they will estimate it correctly.  They'll just be right or wrong in the same way.  The ones that are unlucky to be wrongly estimated in an adverse direction are shit out of luck, with no recourse and no second chances.

#5

Off the Record / Re: Refractory Gauls, or the F...

Last post by Zoupa - October 08, 2025, 10:34:40 PM

How likely are RN and LFI respectively to undermine democracy? Where do they stand on Europe? And how likely are they withdraw support of Ukraine?

On democracy, not so much undermining. RN is certainly very ok with corruption. On Europe they both want a Frexit. They will both withdraw support for Ukraine.

#6

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Zoupa - October 08, 2025, 10:30:20 PM

A review of evictions in DC concluded that in 93% of cases, the eviction was for non-payment of rent (full/partial).

Here is the increase in rent from 2009-2019. Keep in mind that since 2020, rent has increased a further 30%.



There's no need for me to post the minimum wage increase over the past 15 years, as it hasn't moved.

#7

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Admiral Yi - October 08, 2025, 10:18:48 PM

Let's focus on the common thread rather than the fact that compounding the natural imperfection of analogies can eventually add up.  What's common in all the analogies is that the decision of one market actor, when communicated to other actors, can create a coordination that freezes someone out.  One landlord evicting the tenant gets communicated through background checks and prevents the tenant even from an opportunity to get another place.  One gambler refuses to deal with another and badmouths them to other gambles so that they also refuse to deal with them.  One employer decides to fire an employee and through references makes them appear to be a bad hire to other employers.

The justification for spreading the information is secondary; what matters is the resulting coordination that turns private discretion into systemic exclusion. Once that happens, the market stops being free in any meaningful sense.

Yes, the one common thread is that information is disseminated.  The bad tenant and the bad driver and the welcher might prefer that information not be disseminated, but everyone on the other side of the deal is happy to have it.  There's nothing unfair or unjust about the legal acquisition of infomation and acting on it.

The point I agreed with is the moral hazard; we feel bad when a person doesn't have a place to live even if it's a result of their own bad acts.  The point I disagreed with is imposing the costs of fixing the moral hazard only on the landlords.  They should feel exactly the same sympathy as the rest of us and therefore pay exactly the same.

#8

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Tamas - October 08, 2025, 09:53:10 PM

Is your support for leaving the ECHR a part of your shift to the far left, Sheilbh? :p

The Tories want to leave because they are blaming it for having to take "refugees" in. Of course just like brexit it wouldnt solve a thing.

#9

Off the Record / Re: Refractory Gauls, or the F...

Last post by Razgovory - October 08, 2025, 09:00:50 PM

The Red-Green alliance is certainly weird.

"I hate the religious right, they want to stone gay people to death,  they are fascists! I'm going to align myself with some Islamists instead"

#10

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Tonitrus - October 08, 2025, 08:57:22 PM

Just start calling it "sawsage".