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#1

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 11:57:41 AM

So I subscribe to the South China Morning Post, it's not state media but they don't have full editorial independence, I think they're probably still some of the best English language insight into Chinese thinking (which is why I subscribe.)

They've had a bunch of articles about the war largely emphasizing the moves China is making to diversify itself away from reliance on fossil fuel bottle necks in the Middle East. Particularly, building out more of its own oil production (China actually does produce a good bit of oil, not as much as the oil majors, nor nearly enough to satisfy its own desires), but they do have some fields they can tap into more--they've noted Xinjiang as an example. They've also been emphasizing the goals of generating more non-fossil fuel energy and decarbonizing in general.

Reading between the lines it sounds like they're in a holding pattern and just saying "we're working to be less affected by such things."

#2

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Jacob - Today at 11:35:37 AM

How do you all reckon China will play this?

At the moment it seems mostly to be "keep your head down and let the US waste political and military capital" I suppose. But what makes more sense for them? Support Iran (clandestinely, of course), to increase the severity of the bleeding for the US? Or put pressure on Iran to free up oil through the Hormuz (which they need), but also thereby implicitly supporting Trump?

On a different China tack, I wonder to what degree China is taking lessons on Taiwan from this. If Russia gets and expensive and much longer than anticipated quagmire, and the US gets one as well... will China choose to avoid that risk? On the other hand if Xi does oversee a quick successful annexation of Taiwan instead of a quagmire, that'll bolster his credibility. But if it doesn't...?

#3

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Jacob - Today at 11:28:11 AM

However it works out, war is the kind of thing that is difficult to just bullshit your way out of and change the topic on. The exception is small distant, low-effort colonial wars maybe... but that's not what this war on Iran is.

#4

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by crazy canuck - Today at 10:58:16 AM

Yeah, sadly true

#5

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by viper37 - Today at 10:57:12 AM

A maple MAGA guy was explaining earnestly how much he is concerned that Carney will ruin the economy in Canada just like he ruined the economy in the UK.  When I asked how he ruined the economy in the UK he looked at me for a few seconds searching for an answer and the he said, "with his economic policies". So I asked the next question but unfortunately he said he needed to do more research to get the details to me but he was sure he was right. So I will have to wait for those insights.

Most people have no idea what idea what a Premier does compared to a Prime Minister and where provinces got their historical funding for things like superior education, healthcare and housing.  You ask people in a vox pop who's the Minister of culture and half are likely to answer Celine Dion.

So, when you get into the very specifics of answering what a Central Bank governor does, 90% of the population has no idea and will just spout whatever their favorite party leader or guru will say (see crypto types).

#6

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Maladict - Today at 10:16:17 AM

I mean the President always survives the midterms, this isn't parliament.

Surviving in the sense of not becoming a lame duck.

2nd term Presidents always become lame ducks after the mid terms. Even if their party wins (which itself is rare). Without the power of a future election, the power of the President in Congress is always diminished, with both allies and enemies.

Well I certainly hope so, but I don't really see it happening if he keeps control of both houses.

#7

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - Today at 10:13:43 AM

Board of Pieces

Yet not bored of pieces

#8

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Valmy - Today at 09:57:20 AM

Shouldn't be too hard for those hereditary Lords to use their connections to just be appointed by the PM if they work hard enough and are desperate to serve the nation

#9

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Grey Fox - Today at 09:50:18 AM

So I guess that when a Canadian  senator retires the PM of the day chooses their replacement.

Oddly enough the House of Lords here has been a better performing part of UK governance than the other parts in recent years. A low bar though.

Yes, altho our constitution includes regional divisions for appointing senators.

Also, true here.

#10

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Richard Hakluyt - Today at 09:41:56 AM

So I guess that when a Canadian  senator retires the PM of the day chooses their replacement.

Oddly enough the House of Lords here has been a better performing part of UK governance than the other parts in recent years. A low bar though.