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#1

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by HVC - Today at 12:45:27 AM

He could just pull out anyway and say that the US produces their own oil and doesn't need the Middle East, not understanding commodity pricing, couldn't he?

#2

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 12:29:01 AM

Why are we assuming that that it's all down to Trump as to how the war with Iran will end?  Iran found some balls to squeeze, they may not relax the grip as soon as Trump decides he doesn't want to keep pummeling Iran.

Indeed...one of the demands one could easily predict Iran will make is that they won't allow any Gulf state hosting US forces to transit their resources/ships via the SoH until they evict the US.  Then those states will face the choice to either agree to those demands, or we go back to getting involved.

#3

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Syt - March 22, 2026, 11:47:58 PM

Why are we assuming that that it's all down to Trump as to how the war with Iran will end?  Iran found some balls to squeeze, they may not relax the grip as soon as Trump decides he doesn't want to keep pummeling Iran.

Besides, Israel seems far from being done, regardless of what the US does.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Valmy - March 22, 2026, 11:41:14 PM

Israel invading Lebanon complicates things. Iran probably won't stop while that is happening.

#5

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Jacob - March 22, 2026, 10:32:50 PM

Why are we assuming that that it's all down to Trump as to how the war with Iran will end?  Iran found some balls to squeeze, they may not relax the grip as soon as Trump decides he doesn't want to keep pummeling Iran.

Exactly.

Trump may declare victory and go home.

What if Iran declares you need to pay $X to transit Hormuz safely, to recoup the costs from US and Israeli attacks? Is the US going to go right back in, or eat the humiliation?

... or maybe Iran will say they're keeping the Straits closed until they get reparations directly from the US.

... or something else.

But just because the US goes home and stops attacking Iran doesn't mean Iran will do the convenient thing.

Which, IMO, makes it less likely that Trump will declare victory and go home.

#6

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by DGuller - March 22, 2026, 10:05:43 PM

Why are we assuming that that it's all down to Trump as to how the war with Iran will end?  Iran found some balls to squeeze, they may not relax the grip as soon as Trump decides he doesn't want to keep pummeling Iran.

#7

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by grumbler - March 22, 2026, 09:57:34 PM

ICE is basically Trump's Revolutionary Guard at this point, isn't it?

Not really. ICE agents are simple thugs. They are only brave when they vastly outnumber their opponents.

#8

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Jacob - March 22, 2026, 09:42:01 PM

ICE is basically Trump's Revolutionary Guard at this point, isn't it?

#9

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by grumbler - March 22, 2026, 09:40:14 PM

I think that they could just lay off/suspend pay for 5,000 ICE agents and pay the TSA agents. But that would not inflict much pain on the American people, so the Republicans won't do that, transportation safety and passenger inconvenience be damned.

#10

Off the Record / Re: Iran War?

Last post by Jacob - March 22, 2026, 09:39:44 PM

I think it is more likely that Trump will declare victory and leave the area

It's definitely a possibility. The question for me is: how is he going to do that without having his face rubbed in his own failure, something which he dislikes intensely?

I don't know how amenable Iran is to going back to the status quo ante if the US withdraws unilaterally in a way that will make "declare victory and leave" seem convincing. Then again, Trump is very good at believing his own declared reality even if it's at odds with observable facts.

But we'll see.