Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 10, 2026, 04:44:46 PMQuote from: The Brain on January 10, 2026, 10:57:57 AMCannot? Who's to stop a recipient from doing it?
The piece of metal can be transferred but not the award of the prize.
Quote from: Tonitrus on Today at 02:07:39 AMI waver between whether Miller is a Grima Wormtounge or a Bib Fortuna.
Though Trump is a geriatric Jabba in either case.

Quote from: Sheilbh on January 10, 2026, 09:42:01 PMI think fairly low risk. I think far, far less chance of it than during the Cold War or pre-WW1.
I think the global situation is looser and more flexible than that. I actually think the risk has declined since Trump took office and came to power. I think there was far more chance of a Cold War or Guns of August style escalation with no off-path under Biden - Adam Tooze has written about his fear that the US was approaching a point of locking in conflcit with China at one point (I can't remember when exactly) and speaking to senior people in the Administration precisely about that "Guns of August" risk.
I can't really see Russia v China any time soon. Honestly the comparison that keeps coming to my mind there is the British Empire and the Americans.
I don't think the EU is a great power and I don't think it'll become one. I hope I'm proven wrong but I see no evidence that at this point - a diverse multi-state Europe is not going to suddenly become a homogenous, effective superstate that can compete with Russia, China or the US (caveat: Europe advances through crisis - counter to that: that's fine but rearmament has a run-in time). I'd note that the main focus in Brussels at the minute is, in fact, that France and Germany are increasingly on opposite sides on the big decisions - I'm not sure that relationship is still the engine, but it is important and it's been dysfunctional for at least a decade (I'd argue since the crash and Eurozone crisis).
I don't think the US is likely to go to war with Russia or China over any of the areas Russia or China are likely to target. Not under the current administratio and I think Biden was a last gasp of that America. I think maybe the one to watch is the Middle East - especially if there is a revolution in Iran.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 10, 2026, 09:47:05 PMIt's exhausting. But as you say ultimately what he says is kind of only ever temporarily meaningful.
Quote from: Sheilbh on January 10, 2026, 05:46:29 PMAgain via Blas at the White House meeting on Venezuelan oil Trump basically told Conoco to forget about the $12 billion the company is owned by Venezuela ("welll....good write off").
Today Trump's issued an executive ord to shield Venezuelan oil revnue in the US from creditors.
It is all interesting.
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