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#1
Off the Record / Re: Iran War?
Last post by HVC - Today at 09:18:29 PMHasn't turned on Vance yet?
#2
Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...
Last post by Bauer - Today at 09:06:42 PMThe irony about that is that central bankers are truly using information based decision making. Best decision based on best information at a given point in time. Political opinions are mostly based on ideological bullshit imo. And yet some people just can't help mixing up the two.
#3
Off the Record / Re: Iran War?
Last post by Zanza - Today at 08:55:48 PMTrump now publicly blamed Hegseth, Kushner, Witkoff and Rubio for the decision to attack. The buck does not stop here. 
#4
Off the Record / Re: Iran War?
Last post by Legbiter - Today at 08:38:21 PMQuote from: jimmy olsen on Today at 07:16:58 PMhttps://vxtwitter.com/BNODesk/status/2031851355413901598?s=20
https://vxtwitter.com/sentdefender/status/2031850300684763595?s=20
Multiple tankers burning off the coast of Basra
The Iranians don't have to defeat the US to win this war. they just have to defeat the global economy.
#5
Off the Record / Re: Iran War?
Last post by jimmy olsen - Today at 07:16:58 PMhttps://vxtwitter.com/BNODesk/status/2031851355413901598?s=20
https://vxtwitter.com/sentdefender/status/2031850300684763595?s=20
Multiple tankers burning off the coast of Basra
https://vxtwitter.com/sentdefender/status/2031850300684763595?s=20
Multiple tankers burning off the coast of Basra
#6
Off the Record / Re: Iran War?
Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 05:49:01 PMAlso I'm a little suspect of any claims a significant portion of the "defense wonk" establishment would have supported preventive strikes against Iran in the context of how Trump has done them. Particularly if you exclude the name "John Bolton" from the discussion.
Even Bolton in his various, deranged ramblings, vacillated between limited strikes and regime change in his 30 year obsession with the Ayatollah.
Even Bolton in his various, deranged ramblings, vacillated between limited strikes and regime change in his 30 year obsession with the Ayatollah.
#7
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 05:38:28 PMQuote from: Sheilbh on Today at 05:25:56 PMYeah - I think Henry Hill had a line on this in his final column on Conservative Home where he said a lot of the challenges we're facing are the accumulated consequences of the electorate's decisions/revealed preferences.
QuoteBusiness bad? Fuck you, pay me. Oh, you had a fire? Fuck you, pay me. Place got hit by lightning, huh? Fuck you, pay me.
Is that the line you were thinking of?
#8
Off the Record / Re: Iran War?
Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 05:34:35 PMI think that's outdated thinking too though. People, including Joe Biden, were saying the initial sanctions would collapse Russia's economy. More sober analysis would have suggested that is very unlikely. If you're imagining a Zimbabwe style economic collapse--a significant reduction in foreign trade and budget deficits just aren't enough to get there, that requires a unique set of circumstances.
There's no analysis of the Russian economy that makes it look particularly healthy, instead it looks like a war time economy in which said military spending is the only thing keeping the economy moving at all, meanwhile spending on all other sectors has decreased--including numerous sectors that are absolutely essential for Russia's long term competitiveness as a nation.
While not a traditional economic measure--it has also been terrible for Russia's population, which has declined by net 2 million since war began. Russia had even worse demographic woes than many Western societies prior to the war, and this has been exacerbated significantly by the war.
Iran's economy on the other hand was much, much worse off, and almost entirely because of sanctions. This was noted to have limited Iran's abilities in both foreign projection of power and internal stability.
By every measure the economic sanctions appeared to be working quite well. I don't really know why anyone would think an economic sanction can win a war, or collapse a regime. Has that ever happened in history? It would be foolish to imagine it would start now. Economic sanctions impose pain, they aren't going to impose death (in a regime sense).
There's no analysis of the Russian economy that makes it look particularly healthy, instead it looks like a war time economy in which said military spending is the only thing keeping the economy moving at all, meanwhile spending on all other sectors has decreased--including numerous sectors that are absolutely essential for Russia's long term competitiveness as a nation.
While not a traditional economic measure--it has also been terrible for Russia's population, which has declined by net 2 million since war began. Russia had even worse demographic woes than many Western societies prior to the war, and this has been exacerbated significantly by the war.
Iran's economy on the other hand was much, much worse off, and almost entirely because of sanctions. This was noted to have limited Iran's abilities in both foreign projection of power and internal stability.
By every measure the economic sanctions appeared to be working quite well. I don't really know why anyone would think an economic sanction can win a war, or collapse a regime. Has that ever happened in history? It would be foolish to imagine it would start now. Economic sanctions impose pain, they aren't going to impose death (in a regime sense).
#9
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by HVC - Today at 05:31:25 PMSheilbh weren't you in the "the electorate is always right" side? The fact you vote green kind of betrays that view, but that's a whole other issue 
#10
Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...
Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 05:25:56 PMQuote from: Richard Hakluyt on Today at 08:49:30 AMWe have a pretty feckless electorate as well. The whole country is deeply unserious and, to be frank, I find the left here to be just as stupid as the right.Yeah - I think Henry Hill had a line on this in his final column on Conservative Home where he said a lot of the challenges we're facing are the accumulated consequences of the electorate's decisions/revealed preferences. I think there is a lot to that.
But I also think some of this comes to our political leaders. I think part of their job - and part of being a leader - is first of all making choices so not going along with the public's preferences for multiple contradictory things and pretending there are no contradictions. But also I think this is one of the most important pieces of political communication as a leader - whether it is through dramatising the choice or, effectively, acting as a teacher in explaining and bringing people along.
I also wonder if there's a political class thing? So many of them come from lobbying, comms, charities, NGOs and bits of politics and also as professionals in general. I just feel like those are worlds where you almost need to not acknowledge any trade offs - it's about making your argument with conviction and how you bolster it (and not even in the arguing in the alternative way of lawyers) - compared with say business and unions as the training ground for Tories and Labour.