Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 09:14:09 PM

Apparently MI5 are planning to divert the cables in the area.

The one time when just denying planning permission would actually solve a problem

This and the bats 

Just to very quickly return to this - apparently local residents are planning to legally challenge the approval which could take anything from months to years to resolve.

As Daniel Susskind put it, it's a good thing the Chinese government thinks in centuries because they're about to meet the British planning system (For slightly wider context - as noted exasperatedly by China's ambassador - they started this process in 2018.)

[Immigration officers assert sweeping power to enter homes without a judge's warrant, memo says]

#2

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 08:45:36 PM

https://apnews.com/article/ice-arrests-warrants-minneapolis-trump-00d0ab0338e82341fd91b160758aeb2d

Immigration officers assert sweeping power to enter homes without a judge's warrant, memo says

WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal immigration officers are asserting sweeping power to forcibly enter people's homes without a judge's warrant, according to an internal Immigration and Customs Enforcement memo obtained by The Associated Press, marking a sharp reversal of longstanding guidance meant to respect constitutional limits on government searches.

The memo authorizes ICE officers to use force to enter a residence based solely on a more narrow administrative warrant to arrest someone with a final order of removal, a move that advocates say collides with Fourth Amendment protections and upends years of advice given to immigrant communities.

...

The memo itself has not been widely shared within the agency, according to a whistleblower complaint, but its contents have been used to train new ICE officers who are being deployed into cities and towns to implement the president's immigration crackdown. New ICE hires and those still in training are being told to follow the memo's guidance instead of written training materials that actually contradict the memo, according to the whistleblower disclosure.

...

The memo, signed by the acting director of ICE, Todd Lyons, and dated May 12, 2025, says: "Although the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has not historically relied on administrative warrants alone to arrest aliens subject to final orders of removal in their place of residence, the DHS Office of the General Counsel has recently determined that the U.S. Constitution, the Immigration and Nationality Act, and the immigration regulations do not prohibit relying on administrative warrants for this purpose."

#3

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Valmy - Today at 08:36:19 PM

Apparently both Putin and Lukashenko have been invited to the Board of Peace

Putting the world's biggest warmongers on the Board of Peace is basically where we are going.

It's who we set up the UN security council. 

That's true but at least we didn't call it the peace council. 

#4

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Razgovory - Today at 08:12:46 PM

Apparently both Putin and Lukashenko have been invited to the Board of Peace

Putting the world's biggest warmongers on the Board of Peace is basically where we are going.

It's who we set up the UN security council.  

#5

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Legbiter - Today at 08:07:44 PM

So Mark Rutte and Donald Trump has agreed on a framework agreement. It'll be interesting to see what they're talking about, but so far there are no reports on whether Denmark or Greenland has agreed to anything.

Mark Rutte is a civil servant in this post. By convention it goes to a North European (just like SACEUR is always an American). He was actually an inspired choice and he has to have the most stressful boiler-room type job in the world.

That said, there's not a chance in hell America "acquires" Greenland without paying the Iron Price at this point. There might be, best case, some sort of window-dressing of the status-quo that allows Trump to declare shart of the deal. The Nordic tripwire forces will remain indefinitely and NATO with America in it is dead because there's not a living soul who believes Americans would ever honor an article 5 activation by a member state at this point.

#6

Off the Record / Re: Go Persians, go!

Last post by Jacob - Today at 07:43:36 PM

#7

Off the Record / Re: Go Persians, go!

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 07:41:38 PM

From a German journalist of Iranian descent - I don't know how true all of these are but they're heart-breaking:

Golineh Atai
@GolinehAtai
Messages from #Iran

,,I don't know how to live with so much pain and grief"
,,you cannot imagine what happened"
,,nothing will be like before"
,,is the world even ready to face this calamity? Is it capable of not turning its eyes away?"
,,at night their storm private houses, kicking the doors"
,,all of us are in pain, in anger, and full of hate"
,,there are floods of people in Isfahan's cemetery. They brought the corpses in refrigerated trucks. Blood was dripping from the trucks"
,,I am utterly hopeless and exhausted. I cannot imagine something happening from within. They have infiltrated us more than you think. They have everything to kill each and everyone of us"
,,The Islamic Republic was right when it promised to feed the people. Yes, they fed us bullets"
,,The situation reminds me of Orwell's 1984. Everywhere you hear and see their propaganda while you've lost the ability to speak because of the terror they have imposed on us"
,,They killed the protester. He had a tattoo on his middle finger that showed a crown. They also shot through this finger"

I know there's the mourning cycle which was an engine in the Iranian Revolution and may happen but it sounds very grim

#8

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 07:40:18 PM

So Mark Rutte and Donald Trump has agreed on a framework agreement. It'll be interesting to see what they're talking about, but so far there are no reports on whether Denmark or Greenland has agreed to anything.

#9

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 07:32:35 PM

Why the Democrats allowed obvious partisan actors like Musk continue to get government contracts blew my mind.

Don't make the same mistake. Ban these bad actors from your shores. Punish them for attempting to weild undemocratic political power.

Not just get government contracts - from my understanding, without policy decisions under Obama on roll out of EVs and Space X contracts, Musk would have gone under.

To be honest I think part of it was that they were not read/understood as they are now, then. I remember the glowing, excited articles about the future of politics following Obama's campaign which was apparently based on microtargeting. The exact same technology and platforms that were, in 2016, weaponise in a plot against democracy. I don't know with that sort of thing or with Musk the extent to which they have changed (ie we were right in 2012 - and they're not the same person) or the extent to which our perspective has shifted and we read it wrong then? I'm genuinely not sure (my own view is probably just that wealth and power and their class position will always be hostile to democratic power - but so are the cuddly billionaires ).

On the EU, there are mechanisms for doing that sort of thing - like the Digital Services Act which has mechanisms to act against the platforms. My own view is the real problem is that it would be a political decision and require politics - Europe operates at the level of technical policy making and "rule of law". There are rules and laws around how and when the EU could do that sort of thing. The EU successfully dealt with Microsoft over competition - but it took about a decade of deeply technical work and court cases. If your view is around threats to democracy then that's not going to be a viable solution - and that is the EU's MO (for very good reasons). I think part of the EU reluctance is also a bit like why Europe is not just spending Russian assets - it could be a very dangerous precedent.

I mentioned elsewhere that just last month the other problem is that for some of these services there is no European alternative. I mentioned it but the French intelligence service recently extended their contract with Palantir (agreed last month). This was a deal they entered into very quickly after the Bataclan attack and the renewal was framed around a successful Olympics. For better or worse, Europe has not developed a big data powered panopticon that will help intelligence agencies prevent terrorist attacks. As I say there's a better and worse side of that but I think that is an important part of the context for this - that at least in part the trade off decision-makers have is do you put money in Peter Thiel's pocket, or do you decommission a supplier that is credibly reducing the risk of another Bataclan attack? I hate to say it but we'd be in a better position if there were European companies specialising in spying on us all - sadly they're all American or Israeli.

#10

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 07:29:52 PM

Seems like Rutte is continuing with the Daddy Trump approach. Just because it hasn't worked at all doesn't mean it won't suddenly start working, I guess.

It's just what he does.

Yep. You responded with hostility and he backed down. That is how it's done. The Canadians get this.

The British and the Democrats are too stupid unfortunately.

To take these together I think this is sort of a Rorschach test.

Here the lesson everyone is drawing is confirmation of the opinion they had on day one which is about responding with hostility and pushing back etc.

At the same time you see others quote Trump's statement and the "very productive meeting" with Mark Rutte. It seems particularly common from German analysts that it was the "quiet" "prudent" diplomacy of Meloni and Merz and Rutte v the populist bluster of Macron that won out. (And I would add that for all the comments about Starmer specifically here - his approach was not somehow unique and aberrant it was the same as Merz, Meloni, Rutte, Tusk etc).

I think both are plausible - and it may well be both. It's not 100% but I also think an element is Trump the reality TV producer - generating conflict to resolve as part of a narrative arc and make great TV.