Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: (Great Power) War in Our T...

Last post by Zoupa - Today at 12:04:17 AM

I think fairly low risk. I think far, far less chance of it than during the Cold War or pre-WW1.

I think the global situation is looser and more flexible than that. I actually think the risk has declined since Trump took office and came to power. I think there was far more chance of a Cold War or Guns of August style escalation with no off-path under Biden - Adam Tooze has written about his fear that the US was approaching a point of locking in conflcit with China at one point (I can't remember when exactly) and speaking to senior people in the Administration  precisely about that "Guns of August" risk.

I can't really see Russia v China any time soon. Honestly the comparison that keeps coming to my mind there is the British Empire and the Americans.

I don't think the EU is a great power and I don't think it'll become one. I hope I'm proven wrong but I see no evidence that at this point - a diverse multi-state Europe is not going to suddenly become a homogenous, effective superstate that can compete with Russia, China or the US (caveat: Europe advances through crisis - counter to that: that's fine but rearmament has a run-in time). I'd note that the main focus in Brussels at the minute is, in fact, that France and Germany are increasingly on opposite sides on the big decisions - I'm not sure that relationship is still the engine, but it is important and it's been dysfunctional for at least a decade (I'd argue since the crash and Eurozone crisis).

I don't think the US is likely to go to war with Russia or China over any of the areas Russia or China are likely to target. Not under the current administratio and I think Biden was a last gasp of that America. I think maybe the one to watch is the Middle East - especially if there is a revolution in Iran.

It's pretty amazing that I think I disagree with all of your takes in this post 

Still love ya.

#2

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by The Minsky Moment - January 10, 2026, 11:56:46 PM

It's exhausting. But as you say ultimately what he says is kind of only ever temporarily meaningful.

There is no one at the tiller.  There is no NSA.  Gabbard is MIA. Trump is confused and addled and lurches back-and-forth depending on who spoke to him at last.  Policy formation to the extent it exists appears to be coming mostly from Miller, which would explain the otherwise inexplicable presence of a deputy chief of staff at a conference announcing a major overseas military operation.  Policy execution appears to be completely formless and driven by Trump's mood in a given moment and the motives of whoever manages to get access and shove a paper in front of him to sign.

#3

Off the Record / Re: The Shooting Gallery: Poli...

Last post by Syt - January 10, 2026, 11:55:59 PM

Quick flashback to 5 years ago when the anti-vaxx MAGA crowd were worried about nazi methods in America.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by The Minsky Moment - January 10, 2026, 11:50:53 PM

Again via Blas at the White House meeting on Venezuelan oil Trump basically told Conoco to forget about the $12 billion the company is owned by Venezuela ("welll....good write off").

Today Trump's issued an executive ord to shield Venezuelan oil revnue in the US from creditors.

It is all interesting.

After ranting about Venezuela stealing from the oil companies, Trump himself just did exactly that.

Then, despite assurances that the US is running Venezuela, the State Dept issued an alert for all American nationals to flee the country as paramilitaries on the streets are searching for Americans.

The shit show continues . . .

[1.]

#5

Off the Record / Re: (Great Power) War in Our T...

Last post by Tonitrus - January 10, 2026, 11:45:18 PM

I voted 50-50. I have no idea really.

1. I could see China turning on russia eventually.

2. I could see the EU vs russia if they try shit in the Baltics.

3. don't think the US will go for Greenland militarily.

4. I don't think the US or anyone else would intervene militarily if China went for Taiwan.

1. Not as long as Russia's nuclear force remains credible (or Russia is in a position to use it).  A Russia/EU war might see limited nuclear use, but mostly by Russia attempting to intimidate/cow EU nations into surrender or inaction...but I don't think Russia would see even a losing conventional war with the EU as it is now as a real test of national survival.  A war where China makes a grab at mass amounts of Russian territory would scare them into far more desperate action.

2.  Too many variables too predict anything clearly...but I don't think anything will involve a mass invasion, more likely salami tactics to try and grab what they think they can get away with.  That may be the entire Baltics...but I am not sure they would be to chew that big of a morsel all at once.

3. The "at last this will make the sane GOP members rebel" may be spent a spent phrase at this point, but such action might actually make the worms that is Congress turn.

4.  Depends on how they do it.  If China is confident no one will intervene, and focuses on battering Taiwan only...good chance they get away with it.  After all, everybody "legally" recognizes Taiwan as part of China.  If China is not so confident and batters Okinawa or other US bases/forces at the same time, in order to try and neuter US intervention...well, we'll see if the Pearl Harbor spirit still has any play.

#6

Off the Record / Re: The Shooting Gallery: Poli...

Last post by Tonitrus - January 10, 2026, 11:36:40 PM

Apparently the shooter has been with CBP/DHS/ICE for over 20 years. It makes his reaction even more baffling as I imagine he would have had this type of interaction many times before.

I don't think even 20+ year veterans of CBP/ICE would have much similar interactions before the last year. The CBP most citizens have had interactions with is checking passports at the border/airports.

#7

Off the Record / Re: The Shooting Gallery: Poli...

Last post by Bauer - January 10, 2026, 10:26:59 PM

This entire incident could have been avoided had ICE assigned even one professional to this team of violent thugs, because no professional would have allowed this to escalate to murder.

That is the Crux that of the matter. Real law enforcement is supposed to know how to deescalate and resolve conflict in the best interests of public safety.

ICE / Trump admin doesn't have the best interest of public safety in mind.

#8

Off the Record / Re: (Great Power) War in Our T...

Last post by Bauer - January 10, 2026, 10:21:41 PM

I think it's a very low but non zero risk.

But old school power spheres influence seem to be making a comeback.

#9

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Sheilbh - January 10, 2026, 09:47:05 PM

I guess what's good about Trump is he goes back on his word/deals constantly.

Saw some reports today that Trump's back to thinking Putin is an obstacle to a Ukraine deal (I think he's right - I don't think Russia wants a deal). There's already the US pressure on Indian tariffs over India buying Russian oil and now a couple of seizures of shadow fleet ships - apparently they might try to put more pressure on Putin.

Now obviously it would only take another phone call with Putin to change that - followed by months of European diplomacy pretending to go along with Trump and position Putin as the problem.

It's exhausting. But as you say ultimately what he says is kind of only ever temporarily meaningful.

#10

Off the Record / Re: (Great Power) War in Our T...

Last post by Sheilbh - January 10, 2026, 09:42:01 PM

I think fairly low risk. I think far, far less chance of it than during the Cold War or pre-WW1.

I think the global situation is looser and more flexible than that. I actually think the risk has declined since Trump took office and came to power. I think there was far more chance of a Cold War or Guns of August style escalation with no off-path under Biden - Adam Tooze has written about his fear that the US was approaching a point of locking in conflcit with China at one point (I can't remember when exactly) and speaking to senior people in the Administration  precisely about that "Guns of August" risk.

I can't really see Russia v China any time soon. Honestly the comparison that keeps coming to my mind there is the British Empire and the Americans.

I don't think the EU is a great power and I don't think it'll become one. I hope I'm proven wrong but I see no evidence that at this point - a diverse multi-state Europe is not going to suddenly become a homogenous, effective superstate that can compete with Russia, China or the US (caveat: Europe advances through crisis - counter to that: that's fine but rearmament has a run-in time). I'd note that the main focus in Brussels at the minute is, in fact, that France and Germany are increasingly on opposite sides on the big decisions - I'm not sure that relationship is still the engine, but it is important and it's been dysfunctional for at least a decade (I'd argue since the crash and Eurozone crisis).

I don't think the US is likely to go to war with Russia or China over any of the areas Russia or China are likely to target. Not under the current administratio and I think Biden was a last gasp of that America. I think maybe the one to watch is the Middle East - especially if there is a revolution in Iran.