Recent posts

#1

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:30:34 PM

The Russian army marches great.  But they still get killed 2:1 by Ukraine.  Maybe the ability to look cool while moving in a march tempo isn't so important for 21st century combat effectiveness?

#2

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by HVC - Today at 01:29:00 PM

Plus ça change

Wake me up around 1.12 . . .

Maybe 1.13?

It'll be all ironed out in time for VI

#3

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:25:41 PM

Plus ça change

Wake me up around 1.12 . . .

Maybe 1.13?

#4

Off the Record / Re: Aukus

Last post by The Minsky Moment - Today at 01:06:52 PM

I would love to hear more insights into Fujian if you wouldn't mind sharing? What makes it so horribly designed?

All I heard is that they were having even more issues with EMALS then we were.

#5

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by Syt - Today at 12:49:13 PM

Well, I was considering trying it this weekend - generally people say it's a step forward, but there is a flaw where economies seem to collapse after 100 - 150 years due to a lack of tools/lumber/iron.

The most likely culprit is estate building. With 1.1 beta, tax money lost from lack of control goes to the estates. And they build. And build. And build. Not necessarily sensibly but A LOT. Which crashes out the markets.

Maybe only *some* money should be funneled to the estates?

#6

Off the Record / Re: Aukus

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 11:20:34 AM

Yeah, there not much use to getting 1000 privates if there are no sergeants to train them.

That's why I'm not much impressed with things like the carrier Fujian (even before it turned out to be horribly designed); efficient flight deck operations only come when you've got that 20-year-veteran Master Chief Aviation Boatswain's Mate able to train up the sailors and orchestrate the flight deck.

Yeah and I think this is also the strategic bind Europe is in with China, the US and Russia.

My view is that it is easier to rebuild your defence industries if you have an existing significant industrial base (which is partly why I think Germany and Poland are so important). Which is why China is a challenge because the de-industrialisation of Europe is not because of Trump or the US or tariffs; it is because of China and whether it's a stated objective, or simply an inevitable product of the dual circulation strategy, it is not incidental to but intrinsic in the policy of the Chinese state.

But this then comes to the question of what Europe's strategic weakness is. Because if you think the conditions are there for Europe to exercise power in its own neighbourhood then it is primarily a case of political will and money. If you think the conditions aren't there because of material weaknesses in Europe's industrial base and defence industries then China is just going to smother them even more.

As I say I lean more to the latter view and I also think this is not a time to be thinking about "partnership" or "alliances" or anything long-term. We need to be thinking like Lord Palmerston - no permanent friends, only permanent interests. Europe needs to be opportunistic and take advantages with both US and China as and when it can - bank what it can but don't bank on it and be ready to be reactive and nimble in pursuit of those interests. I think Turkiye and Japan both, in different ways, already have this approach.

#7

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 11:16:12 AM

I'd possibly re-frame that.

I don't think it's that good relations with China mean good outcomes for foreign prisoners. I think it is that the Chinese party state views individual citizens abroad, Chinese investment, Chinese trade and (for me most problematically) Chinese diaspora communities as potential levers to be used in advancing the party's political interests and objectives. If you don't cross them or align with them then it'll be "win-win" (but chances are your dependencies and their leverage will increase). If you get in the way then they are all levers to be pulled.

#8

Off the Record / Re: The EU thread

Last post by Duque de Bragança - Today at 11:10:04 AM

German-led NATO contingent marching through Kaunas in a show of strength. Probably have to go back to 1941 to hear German troops marching under the Königgrätzer Marsch there.   

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2019354668951122238

Bad example, the EU 27 military review on the Champs-Élysées in July 14th 2007 (tempus fugit!) under Sarko was a much better sight. 

#9

Off the Record / Re: Refractory Gauls, or the F...

Last post by Duque de Bragança - Today at 11:00:43 AM

a youth? or a "youth"?

Good question. Name is withheld. He was 14 when perpetrated the crime, so I guess that's why.
 
In other cases, first names are given, dead giveaways in those cases.

On the other other hand, only the first letter of the surname is known.

#10

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 10:52:23 AM

So this is the front of the Times' supplement this weekend The wider context which is perhaps as extraordinary is that Mandelson had the Times over to do a "clear the air" interview profile last week as the story was breaking. So their newspaper had quotes from before and after the release of the files showing him emailing government secrets to Epstein.

I think this is the rest of it in more detail. The thing that's kind of amazing about it (and, perhaps, why Mandelson is a hugely important figure in the last forty years of the Labour Party despite now being on his third or fourth resignation following a scandal) is that he clearly thought (thinks?) there was still a way back:


Edit: Also - and this is very much not the main story here - I have looked at the pictures and I am once again disgusted at the very rich acquiring vast amounts of money and yet apparently having no taste on decor If just some of that money came to me I'd have a fabulous looking home and do little to no corruption!