Israel Says It Has Proof That Syria Has Used Chemical Weapons

[viper37]

Or the rebels prevail which -- without any Western paritipation - will almost certainly mean a Salafi-dominated coalition.

Let's examine a few cases:
- Tunisia.  No intervention.  Salafi-dominated coalition.
- Lybia.  Air strikes + support to a credible rebel group.  Salafi-dominated coalition.
- Irak: Intervention in 2003 with no ongoing conflict.  Civil war with US-British&allied troops caught in the middle.  Future still undecided, terrorist attack frequent. But no Salafi-dominated coalition.
- Afghanistan: Intervention in 2001 at the end of an ongoing conflict between the Talebans and the Northern Alliance.  Future still undecided, terrorist attack frequent. No Salafi-dominated coalition, but millions of years away from a western liberal democracy.

I am still unsure what would be the outcome of an intervention.  Arming the rebels didn't prevent the salafi from reaching power in Lybia.  Not doing anything got us the same results in Tunisia.

The best course of action would be a coordinated effort of UN & NATO will full US, UK and France support from intelligence networks and counter-surge operations and it needs to last for a decade, unlike Afghanistan where most resources packed&left for Iraq.  I am unsure any of the major countries would agree for such a long term action.  Heck, I'm not sure any country would agree to send soldiers to Syria knowing they'll be there for 10 years.  And even if they would, there is nothing that prevents a government change a pull-out of the troops&resources.

EDIT:
ah well, Derspiess and other made the case before me.

[mongers]

I just can't see who that group is in Syria.

I dont either but what are the alternatives?
Either Assad prevails and we get a more brutal, radicalized version of the hinge point of the Iran-Hizbollah axis.  No thanks.
Or the rebels prevail which -- without any Western paritipation - will almost certainly mean a Salafi-dominated coalition.
Or chaos will prevail and we will have a new Afghanistan in the Levant.

All the alternatives are so bad that even a low probability shot of something not completely awful looks attractive.

Indeed, it's a shit sandwich with less bread and more filling.

I'm in favour of careful arming of rebels, but including copious amounts of assistance for civil administration and basic utilities in liberated areas, with a view to creating a stalemate. Then you can start to force the factions to the negotiating table to hammer out some kind of compromise peace.

I think the real mistake was the insistence that Assad had to go before any transition deal: the sort of absolute demand we didn't even demand at Dayton. This may have been to encourage the Alawites to ditch their leader but it clearly did not work: they have closed ranks around him. And when you turn a civil war into one of absolute regime survival, it's harder to the point of impossibility to end without total victory. I think we should have been more pragmatic about Assad having some sort of role in transition before being eased out some other way. Yes he's a bastard, but how many lives should we sacrifice for the sake of nailing one bastard?

Now that's fine if you're willing and able to ensure a rebel victory, but the other mistake "we" made (Western governments) was severely underestimating the resilience of the regime.

Yes you've outlined the situation nicely.

And I'd agree there is no good, ideal or even moderately ok external solution.

The strength of the ruling elite/faction and the government makes it a entirely different ball game to Libya, where the clown dictator and his forces only put up any sort of relative resistance because of near ineptitude of the opposition. 

[Tonitrus]

There is also:

- We help rebels, rebels win, they kinda like us (we're too late for "really like us"...and "us" meaning The West)
- We don't help rebels, rebels win, they hate everyone but Qatar/Saudi Arabia.
- We don't help rebels, Assad wins, Syria hates everyone on the planet except Iran/Russia.

Plus the wild card outcome:

- We help rebels, rebels win, declare Jihad on The West because no one is ever really grateful.
- We help rebels, Assad still manages to win, annexes France.

[frunk]

Even before this started the Syrian government didn't like anybody other than Iran and Russia, so not much lost there.

[Tonitrus]

I always had the impression they got a fair amount of sympathy from the Euros against Israel.

[Siege]

Plus the wild card outcome:

- We help rebels, rebels win, declare Jihad on The West because no one is ever really grateful.
-

Please, these are muslims.
They thank their moongod for whatever help they get, wheather it comes from the West or not.

[Viking]

Plus the wild card outcome:

- We help rebels, rebels win, declare Jihad on The West because no one is ever really grateful.
-

Please, these are muslims.
They thank their moongod for whatever help they get, wheather it comes from the West or not.

Siegy, do you want to go to Syria?

[Admiral Yi]

Plus the wild card outcome:

- We help rebels, rebels win, declare Jihad on The West because no one is ever really grateful.

Don't know why you're calling this a wild card.  That's how it played in Afghanistan.

[Siege]

Plus the wild card outcome:

- We help rebels, rebels win, declare Jihad on The West because no one is ever really grateful.
-

Please, these are muslims.
They thank their moongod for whatever help they get, wheather it comes from the West or not.

Siegy, do you want to go to Syria?

Right now?
Fuck no. I just came back from 9 grueling months in Afghanistan.

In about a year, fuck yeah. I'll go and kill some moonslims for uncle sam.
There is a lot of bad people left in the world that need killing.
They are really bad, they don't compromise, and the only reason they have not massacred everybody in the west is because they lack the power to do so.

[Neil]

I don't think the Muslim thing is relevant.  Middle Easterners of all stripes seem pretty disloyal.

[The Brain]

Religion of peas.

[Viking]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LIkuJBER6o

Lecture from the US war college about the options and nature of the US response to the war in Syria by Larry Goodson. About 1 hour in length.

[mongers]

A BBC camera crew got into Qusayr after it fell to the army and at the end of the film it showed a sizeable number, perhaps 2-3 platoons worth of Hizbollah infantry marching along side the road. Off-camera they confirmed who there were, what as noticeable as compared to Syrian army soldiers ignoring their cleaner turn out, was they appeared better equipped with modern body armour and helmets.

The independent has some interesting reporting from inside Lebanon, according to Fisk's source in Baalbek around 2,000 Hizbollah left for Syria. Of whom at least 110 have died in the last 10 days alone.