Israel Says It Has Proof That Syria Has Used Chemical Weapons

[jimmy olsen]

Looks like Assad may be testing the waters to see if chemical weapons really are an uncrossable red line.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/24/world/middleeast/israel-says-syria-has-used-chemical-weapons.html?_r=0

Israel Says It Has Proof That Syria Has Used Chemical Weapons

TEL AVIV — Israel declared Tuesday that it had found evidence that the Syrian government repeatedly used chemical weapons last month, arguing that President Bashar al-Assad was testing how the United States and others would react and that it was time for Washington to overcome its deep reluctance to intervene in the Syrian civil war.

In making the declaration — which went somewhat beyond recent suspicions expressed by Britain and France — Israeli officials argued that President Assad had repeatedly crossed what President Obama said last summer would be a "red line." But Obama administration officials pushed back, saying they would not leap into the conflict on what they viewed as inconclusive evidence, even while working with allies on plans to secure the weapons if it appeared they were about to be used or handed to Hezbollah.

The declaration from Israel's senior military intelligence analyst was immediately questioned in Washington. Officials said an investigation was necessary, but added that American intelligence agencies had yet to uncover convincing evidence that an attack on March 19, and smaller subsequent attacks, used sarin gas, a deadly agent that Syria is believed to hold in huge stockpiles.

"We are looking for conclusive evidence, if it exists, if there was use of chemical weapons," Jay Carney, the White House press secretary, said when pressed on the Israeli assessment.

In a briefing in Tel Aviv, an Israeli military official was vague about the exact nature of the evidence, saying that it was drawn from an examination of photographs of victims and some "direct" findings that he would not specify.

Secretary of State John Kerry suggested there were mixed messages emerging from Israel, saying that he spoke to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday morning and that the Israeli leader "was not in a position to confirm" the intelligence assessment. Israeli officials said they would not try to explain the apparent difference between Mr. Netanyahu's statement and that of his top military intelligence officials.

At the same time, Daniel B. Shapiro, the American ambassador to Israel, said that contingency plans to address the use of chemical weapons in Syria were "very much part" of the discussions between Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and his Israeli counterpart here on Monday.

The Israeli intelligence analyst, Brig. Gen. Itai Brun, told participants at a security conference in Tel Aviv that the Syrian government "has increasingly used chemical weapons." That echoed accusations that Britain and France made in a letter last week to the secretary general of the United Nations, calling for a deeper investigation.

"The very fact that they have used chemical weapons without any appropriate reaction," General Brun said, "is a very worrying development, because it might signal that this is legitimate."

General Brun's statements were the most definitive to date by an Israeli official regarding evidence of possible chemical weapons attacks on March 19 near Aleppo, Syria, and Damascus, the capital. Another military official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that the evidence had been presented to the Obama administration but that it had not fully accepted the analysis.

None of the assertions — by Israel, Britain or France — have included physical proof. Experts say the most definitive way to prove the use of chemical weapons is to collect soil samples promptly at the site and examine suspected victims.

A senior Defense Department official noted that "the use of chemical weapons in an environment like Syria is very difficult to confirm." He added: "Given the stakes involved, low-confidence assessments by foreign governments cannot be the basis for U.S. action. The president has clearly stated that the use of chemical weapons would be a game changer. Thus, we must be absolutely confident of use before determining how to respond."

That will not be easy. The Syrian government, which has accused insurgents of using chemical weapons and has requested that a United Nations forensics team investigate, has refused to allow that team to enter the country because of a dispute over the scope of its inquiry.

Mr. Kerry, at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, urged that members of the alliance be ready to respond if it was determined that Syria had in fact used chemical weapons.

But after his phone call with Mr. Netanyahu he told reporters, "I don't know yet what the facts are," adding, "I don't think anybody knows what they are."

Israeli military officials insisted at an annual conference of the Institute for National Security Studies, one of the country's leading research institutes, that after a month of investigations they now understand what happened. General Brun said, "It is quite clear that they used harmful chemical weapons." He cited "different signs," including photographs of Syrians "foaming at the mouth." In a briefing after those comments, another Israeli military official said it was believed that the attacks involved sarin gas, the same agent used in a 1995 assault on the Tokyo subway system that killed 13.

The Syrian attacks killed "a couple of dozens," the military official said, in what Israel judged as a test by Mr. Assad of the international community's response. He said that the government had deployed chemicals a handful of times since then, but that the details and effectiveness of those attacks were sketchier.

"Their fear of using it is much lower than before using it," the official added. "If somebody would take any reaction, maybe it would deter them from using it again."

The public statements regarding the attacks, made days after the British and French governments wrote to Secretary General Ban Ki-moon of the United Nations saying they, too, had evidence of chemical weapons, could complicate the situation for Washington.

If the United States has been more reluctant than its allies to come to firm conclusions about chemical weapons, it may be because such proof could force Mr. Obama's hand. In August, the president told reporters that any evidence that Mr. Assad was moving the weapons or making use of them could prompt the United States to act.

"That would change my calculus," he said. "That would change my equation."

Mr. Obama's aides have since amended his statement, saying that he was referring to major use of chemical weapons — akin to what Saddam Hussein employed against the Kurds two decades ago — or the transfer of weapons to terrorist groups. Mr. Hagel's spokesman, George Little, said in Amman, Jordan, where Mr. Hagel arrived on Tuesday, that the president's warnings remained in place.

"We reiterate in the strongest possible terms the obligations of the Syrian regime to safeguard its chemical weapons stockpiles and not to use or transfer such weapons to terrorist groups like Hezbollah."

The United States has made efforts to gather evidence from the field in Syria, but with few apparent results. Majid, a rebel commander from the eastern suburbs of Damascus, said recently that his battalion had been contacted, through intermediaries, by the Central Intelligence Agency, requesting samples to be tested for the presence of chemicals. Speaking via Skype from Jordan, and on the condition that he be identified only by his first name for his safety, Majid said that the C.I.A. had requested soil, urine and hair samples from several areas around Damascus.

[Warspite]

#ProTip: if you're going to assert that a major red line for international action has been crossed, you need more than

an Israeli military official was vague about the exact nature of the evidence, saying that it was drawn from an examination of photographs of victims and some "direct" findings that he would not specify.

[jimmy olsen]

They're foaminfg at the mouth, what more do you want .?

[Razgovory]

It would help if you title and article matched up better.  Title says proof, the artcle says they are kind of wishy washy.  We need to keep our powder dry for Iran, cause that day is coming up soon.

[jimmy olsen]

It would help if you title and article matched up better.  Title says proof, the artcle says they are kind of wishy washy.  We need to keep our powder dry for Iran, cause that day is coming up soon.

After 2 yeatrs of Civil War, I really doubt that the air defence network of Syria is anywhere near as formidible as IRan's ,.

[Warspite]

They're foaminfg at the mouth, what more do you want .?

Soil samples? Surveillance evidence of transfer, preparation and loading of CW warheads? Intercepted communications?

I'm not defending the regime, but if we are to declare that this red line has been crossed, we should have more to go on than vague statements by the Israelis.

[jimmy olsen]

The French and the Brits have also voiced suspicions haven't they?

How do you propose to obtain soil samplse and such in the midst of a vicisous civil war?

[Viking]

They're foaminfg at the mouth, what more do you want .?

How about the actual evidence. Nebulous phrases like "different signs" and unpublished photos described as showing "foaming at the mouth" don't really constitute evidence. The former means nothing and the latter is subject to interpretation.

Right now it seems like the israelis are stretching the scant evidence they have to try and confront obama's red line, possibly with implications vis a vis obama's red line on iran.

If the Israelis have real evidence they should present it and if they don't they should keep silent about it since not doing so only damages their credibility.

[jimmy olsen]

It isn't just the Isrealis though, it's the Brits and French as well.

[Viking]

It isn't just the Isrealis though, it's the Brits and French as well.

In making the declaration — which went somewhat beyond recent suspicions expressed by Britain and France

[Eddie Teach]

How do you propose to obtain soil samplse and such in the midst of a vicisous civil war?

We have spies in Syria don't we? Shouldn't be too hard to pick up a bag of dirt.

[Warspite]

The French and the Brits have also voiced suspicions haven't they?

How do you propose to obtain soil samplse and such in the midst of a vicisous civil war?

Well, MI6 has people in Syria right now, as do a number of other government crisis-response organisations. These people take risks every day: they could get a soil sample if needed.

[Kleves]

  Once the red line has been crossed, there's only the turquoise line and the fuchsia line left before they get to the really serious colors.

[Viking]

Once the red line has been crossed, there's only the turquoise line and the fuchsia line left before they get to the really serious colors.

Yet another reason Gheys shouldn't be allowed in international diplomacy.

[Warspite]

We must not allow a Pantone gap.