2016 elections - because it's never too early

Started by merithyn, May 09, 2013, 07:37:45 AM

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Monoriu

#7755
March 21, 2016, 10:22:26 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2016, 10:19:21 PM


That all being said, the thought that there is a 28% chance that our next president will be The Donald terrifies me.

Look at the bright side.  At least it isn't Trump vs Sanders. 

PDH

#7756
March 21, 2016, 10:22:52 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2016, 10:19:21 PM
...the thought that there is a 28% chance that our next president will be The Donald terrifies me.

Sometimes it is terror that lets us know we are alive...
I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.
-Umberto Eco

-------
"I'm pretty sure my level of depression has nothing to do with how much of a fucking asshole you are."

-CdM

Admiral Yi

#7757
March 21, 2016, 10:24:42 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 21, 2016, 10:22:26 PM
Look at the bright side.  At least it isn't Trump vs Sanders.

I expect a Sanders presidency would be much like the Carter years, at least in terms of foreign policy.  We survived that.  Trump is uncharted territory.

Zoupa

#7758
March 21, 2016, 10:27:43 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2016, 10:19:21 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on March 21, 2016, 10:12:31 PM
Holy shit. Those are some strong undersetimations for Trump. I think I'll be putting a 100 or 2 on him.

Am I reading this wrong? Trump has very easily won swing states. Sanders has easily won (or come quite cloe to winning) swing states. That translates to republicans voting Trump heavily on GE day and berners staying home.

HRC might win the popular vote but I'm not even sure of that.

No, I think it's about right.

Sandanistas will not stay home for Hillary vs. Donald.

Primary turnout is a fraction of general election turnout.

The fact that a state is a swing state doesn't mean that the primary electorate is a swing electorate.

The Donald still has massive negatives AFAICT.

That all being said, the thought that there is a 28% chance that our next president will be The Donald terrifies me.

I'm skeptical. Hillary has strong negatives too.

I'm putting 20 $ on Trump winning, same odds as discussed above. Taking that bet?

Jacob

#7759
March 21, 2016, 10:31:56 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2016, 10:24:42 PM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 21, 2016, 10:22:26 PM
Look at the bright side.  At least it isn't Trump vs Sanders.

I expect a Sanders presidency would be much like the Carter years, at least in terms of foreign policy.  We survived that.  Trump is uncharted territory.

You and I are in agreement on this.

Admiral Yi

#7760
March 21, 2016, 10:39:11 PM Last Edit: March 21, 2016, 10:41:19 PM by Admiral Yi
Quote from: Zoupa on March 21, 2016, 10:27:43 PM
I'm skeptical. Hillary has strong negatives too.

I'm putting 20 $ on Trump winning, same odds as discussed above. Taking that bet?

Deal.

Greenbacks, jah?

The Minsky Moment

#7761
March 21, 2016, 11:45:46 PM
Check out Yi arbitraging the presidential election bets.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Zoupa

#7762
March 22, 2016, 12:07:11 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2016, 10:39:11 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on March 21, 2016, 10:27:43 PM
I'm skeptical. Hillary has strong negatives too.

I'm putting 20 $ on Trump winning, same odds as discussed above. Taking that bet?

Deal.

Greenbacks, jah?

Yup. But you better pay fast once the Donald wins. I'm guessing the USD will be tanking fast afterwards :P

Martinus

#7763
March 22, 2016, 03:14:38 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on March 22, 2016, 12:07:11 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2016, 10:39:11 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on March 21, 2016, 10:27:43 PM
I'm skeptical. Hillary has strong negatives too.

I'm putting 20 $ on Trump winning, same odds as discussed above. Taking that bet?

Deal.

Greenbacks, jah?

Yup. But you better pay fast once the Donald wins. I'm guessing the USD will be tanking fast afterwards :P
Nah, it won't. Being the world's primary reserve currency of choice, it appreciates even when the US is doing badly.

Savonarola

#7764
March 22, 2016, 08:16:05 AM
Actual news story:

Scott Baio trends after endorsing Trump

I'm pretty sure Buddy Lembeck supports Cruz (being Bibleman and all); will he and Charles still be friends after this?   :(
In Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace—and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock

Eddie Teach

#7765
March 22, 2016, 08:28:54 AM
He should have stuck with the Walker endorsement.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Monoriu

#7766
March 22, 2016, 08:38:47 AM
Mike Tyson has endorsed Trump. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign_endorsements,_2016#Actors_and_comedians

Actually, out of the list of actors and sports figures, I only recognise the names of Jenna Jameson and Mike Tyson. 

I also heard that Stallone has said that Trump is a good guy.

Eddie Teach

#7767
March 22, 2016, 08:41:53 AM
Does your wife know you've heard of Jenna Jameson? :o
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

derspiess

#7768
March 22, 2016, 09:04:24 AM
Quote from: Monoriu on March 22, 2016, 08:38:47 AM
Mike Tyson has endorsed Trump. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign_endorsements,_2016#Actors_and_comedians

Actually, out of the list of actors and sports figures, I only recognise the names of Jenna Jameson and Mike Tyson. 

I also heard that Stallone has said that Trump is a good guy.

:o  You don't know Rocky Boiman??
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Phillip V

#7769
March 22, 2016, 09:10:59 AM
Tax Revenue from Legalized Marijuana Exceed Expectations In Oregon

http://www.oregonlive.com/marijuana/index.ssf/2016/03/first_month_of_taxed_recreatio.html

Where do Clinton and Trump stand on legalizing pot?
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