2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Monoriu]

That all being said, the thought that there is a 28% chance that our next president will be The Donald terrifies me.

Look at the bright side.  At least it isn't Trump vs Sanders. 

[PDH]

...the thought that there is a 28% chance that our next president will be The Donald terrifies me.

Sometimes it is terror that lets us know we are alive...

[Admiral Yi]

Look at the bright side.  At least it isn't Trump vs Sanders.

I expect a Sanders presidency would be much like the Carter years, at least in terms of foreign policy.  We survived that.  Trump is uncharted territory.

[Zoupa]

Holy shit. Those are some strong undersetimations for Trump. I think I'll be putting a 100 or 2 on him.

Am I reading this wrong? Trump has very easily won swing states. Sanders has easily won (or come quite cloe to winning) swing states. That translates to republicans voting Trump heavily on GE day and berners staying home.

HRC might win the popular vote but I'm not even sure of that.

No, I think it's about right.

Sandanistas will not stay home for Hillary vs. Donald.

Primary turnout is a fraction of general election turnout.

The fact that a state is a swing state doesn't mean that the primary electorate is a swing electorate.

The Donald still has massive negatives AFAICT.

That all being said, the thought that there is a 28% chance that our next president will be The Donald terrifies me.

I'm skeptical. Hillary has strong negatives too.

I'm putting 20 $ on Trump winning, same odds as discussed above. Taking that bet?

[Jacob]

Look at the bright side.  At least it isn't Trump vs Sanders.

I expect a Sanders presidency would be much like the Carter years, at least in terms of foreign policy.  We survived that.  Trump is uncharted territory.

You and I are in agreement on this.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm skeptical. Hillary has strong negatives too.

I'm putting 20 $ on Trump winning, same odds as discussed above. Taking that bet?

Deal.

Greenbacks, jah?

[The Minsky Moment]

Check out Yi arbitraging the presidential election bets.

[Zoupa]

I'm skeptical. Hillary has strong negatives too.

I'm putting 20 $ on Trump winning, same odds as discussed above. Taking that bet?

Deal.

Greenbacks, jah?

Yup. But you better pay fast once the Donald wins. I'm guessing the USD will be tanking fast afterwards

[Martinus]

I'm skeptical. Hillary has strong negatives too.

I'm putting 20 $ on Trump winning, same odds as discussed above. Taking that bet?

Deal.

Greenbacks, jah?

Yup. But you better pay fast once the Donald wins. I'm guessing the USD will be tanking fast afterwards

Nah, it won't. Being the world's primary reserve currency of choice, it appreciates even when the US is doing badly.

[Savonarola]

Actual news story:

Scott Baio trends after endorsing Trump

I'm pretty sure Buddy Lembeck supports Cruz (being Bibleman and all); will he and Charles still be friends after this?   

[Eddie Teach]

He should have stuck with the Walker endorsement.

[Monoriu]

Mike Tyson has endorsed Trump. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign_endorsements,_2016#Actors_and_comedians

Actually, out of the list of actors and sports figures, I only recognise the names of Jenna Jameson and Mike Tyson. 

I also heard that Stallone has said that Trump is a good guy.

[Eddie Teach]

Does your wife know you've heard of Jenna Jameson?

[derspiess]

Mike Tyson has endorsed Trump. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign_endorsements,_2016#Actors_and_comedians

Actually, out of the list of actors and sports figures, I only recognise the names of Jenna Jameson and Mike Tyson. 

I also heard that Stallone has said that Trump is a good guy.

  You don't know Rocky Boiman??

[Phillip V]

Tax Revenue from Legalized Marijuana Exceed Expectations In Oregon

http://www.oregonlive.com/marijuana/index.ssf/2016/03/first_month_of_taxed_recreatio.html

Where do Clinton and Trump stand on legalizing pot?