2016 elections - because it's never too early

[alfred russel]

They should not have cancelled, that was stupid.

They could have had a debate where the two of them sit their and eviscerate Trump.

They are in the tank for trump. That won't work.

[alfred russel]

And get shit ratings.  They'd get better ratings showing Megyn Kelly running on a hamster wheel.

I would watch that. 

[Phillip V]

And get shit ratings.  They'd get better ratings showing Megyn Kelly running on a hamster wheel.

I would watch that. 

Let's be more thoughtful about this.  I would only watch depending on what she was wearing during this activity.

[Martinus]

I understand why her advisers had her do it.  They want to make the case that she is fun. She enjoys fun. She both has fun and can be fun. Fun is a word that accurately describes her and a large quantity of things of which she is fond. She appreciates fun when she encounters it, and she has even been known to partake in activities that produce fun for herself and others. Fun is something she often has when amongst a group of people. In such situations, she is capable of amusing others and, in turn, of being amused by them.

[dps]

I understand why her advisers had her do it.  They want to make the case that she is fun. She enjoys fun. She both has fun and can be fun. Fun is a word that accurately describes her and a large quantity of things of which she is fond. She appreciates fun when she encounters it, and she has even been known to partake in activities that produce fun for herself and others. Fun is something she often has when amongst a group of people. In such situations, she is capable of amusing others and, in turn, of being amused by them.

I'm not sure if it was exactly "fun" for her, but one of the few times I've taken her side on anything was when some people were criticizing her for having a beer.  The idea that it's too undignified or something for the Secretary of State to go in a bar and have a beer is just stupid.

[derspiess]

I'm not sure if it was exactly "fun" for her, but one of the few times I've taken her side on anything was when some people were criticizing her for having a beer.  The idea that it's too undignified or something for the Secretary of State to go in a bar and have a beer is just stupid.

The beer didn't offend me; the dancing did

[jimmy olsen]

According to wikipedia, the republicans felt confident they would win the northeast as the opposition was in disarray. Seward was the most prominent republican, so he came in with a plurality. But carrying the west was considered important, and Lincoln was from what was then the west, so he was considered especially electable (seward was from the east). Plus his supporters apparently flipped the Pennsylvania delegation from Seward by promising a cabinent position, which Lincoln apparently didn't approve of (but the guy got his cabinent position anyway).

Yeah, Lincoln apparently promised a lot of jobs to people without him knowing.  Apparently had too many people show up in his office after he was elected and couldn't place them all -- "too many pigs for the teats" as he said.

To say it another way, his people bought him the nomination with checks that overdrew the nation's bank account. Definitely not the first time in history that happened to a leader.

I read that apparently it may not be illegal to outright bribe delegates to vote for the preferred nominee. As in, with actual cash. Apparently a process that has been sitting idle and unupdated for the better part of a century may have some kinks to work out.

Btw, Tim, remember how when I said Trump was not on pace for the nomination because he was under 50% in the delegates, and you said he was because of the 538 tracker? Well, the 538 tracker now shows him off that pace too. I wonder why you didn't post that.

It hasn't allocated all of the delegates from yesterday yet. Further more, most states are winner take all, or winner take most from here on out. Trump will definitely win 1237 delegates.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/don_t_confuse_donald_trump_s_slim_margins_with_a_sign_of_weakness.html

Plurality Rules

Don't confuse Donald Trump's slim margins with a sign of weakness.

By Jim Newell

A bit of conventional wisdom was settling in on Wednesday morning that though Donald Trump enjoyed a good "Super Tuesday II," with victories in the Northern Mariana Islands, Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, and—tentatively—Missouri, he may not have done well enough to ward off a contested convention. John Kasich's win in his home state, Ohio, deprived Trump of a juicy 66 delegates, and he has still not shown that he can claim a state with anything greater than a plurality of the popular vote. By the Associated Press' latest estimate, he'll need to win 54 percent of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination by the end of primary season on June 7.


As the AP notes, Trump has won "only" 47 percent of the delegates allocated so far. "That's not good enough," the story continues, since "it takes a majority of delegates to win the nomination, according to party rules." This doubtful forecast—that Trump's state performances will have to improve—was also posited by NBC News' Chuck Todd on Tuesday night:

Chuck Todd
✔  ‎‎@chucktodd 

Trump will not surpass 50% tonight in any state. He has only surpassed 45% in four states. He needs 50%+ consistently to avoid convo fight

This line of thinking seems to conflate a majority of votes in any given state with a majority of that state's delegates—something that might make more sense in the early stage of the primary and its many proportionally allocated delegate contests. With a few exceptions, those contests are over.


Though there aren't too many "pure" winner-take-all contests like Ohio and Florida remaining—those are the primaries in which the state's popular vote winner takes all of the state's delegates—there are still some, including Arizona, Delaware, Nebraska, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota. And there are plenty of "hybrid" winner-take-all states that award some delegates to the overall state winner and others to the congressional-district winners. In these states, a candidate can rack up most of a state's delegates with thin but consistent pluralities, especially if he or she can draw support from a broad geographical base. Significant states like Wisconsin, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and California—each with its own set of quirks—award on a hybrid basis. There are 380 delegates in all to be had in those five primaries.


This line of thinking seems to conflate a majority of votes in any given state with a majority of that state's delegates—something that might make more sense in the early stage of the primary and its many proportionally allocated delegate contests. With a few exceptions, those contests are over.


Though there aren't too many "pure" winner-take-all contests like Ohio and Florida remaining—those are the primaries in which the state's popular vote winner takes all of the state's delegates—there are still some, including Arizona, Delaware, Nebraska, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota. And there are plenty of "hybrid" winner-take-all states that award some delegates to the overall state winner and others to the congressional-district winners. In these states, a candidate can rack up most of a state's delegates with thin but consistent pluralities, especially if he or she can draw support from a broad geographical base. Significant states like Wisconsin, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and California—each with its own set of quirks—award on a hybrid basis. There are 380 delegates in all to be had in those five primaries.



Kasich's Ohio win, in the long run, may turn out to be the best thing that ever happened to Trump. It keeps Kasich in the race and prevents the anti-Trump vote from coalescing around Cruz, the only candidate with the slightest chance of catching up to Trump. In red states, this makes it easier for Trump to win his pluralities in over Ted Cruz; in blue states, he'll be able to do the same over Kasich.


Trump is in decent shape to reach 1,237 before the convention as long as the field remains split and he can keep taking his statewide and congressional-level pluralities. We know, we know, it would be fun to start daydreaming about a contested convention right now. But the race is still in Trump's tiny hands.

[CountDeMoney]

I'm not sure if it was exactly "fun" for her, but one of the few times I've taken her side on anything was when some people were criticizing her for having a beer.  The idea that it's too undignified or something for the Secretary of State to go in a bar and have a beer is just stupid.

Hey now;  the Supreme Court elected a President based on "Who would you rather have a beer with?" likability polls.

Unfortunately, he decided to do a shitload of Jell-O shooters, date raped the country, vomited all over the duvet and pillow shams, and we're still trying to scrub the stains out.

[Phillip V]

I'm not sure if it was exactly "fun" for her, but one of the few times I've taken her side on anything was when some people were criticizing her for having a beer.  The idea that it's too undignified or something for the Secretary of State to go in a bar and have a beer is just stupid.

The beer didn't offend me; the dancing did

You sexist jerk.  Girls just want to have fun.

[alfred russel]

It hasn't allocated all of the delegates from yesterday yet. Further more, most states are winner take all, or winner take most from here on out. Trump will definitely win 1237 delegates.

Tim, it has allocated all of them except Missouri, which is not in the calculation. And they projected he needs 42 of the 52 delegates in Missouri, and he is unlikely to beat that.

So, basically this is the situation. I said Trump was behind the pace to get 50% of the delegates, because he had gotten 50% of the delegates. You said, "no no no, he is on pace, because 538 analyzed the geographical bias and allocation rules, and he is on pace based on that."

Well now he still has less than 50% of the delegates, and is now under the 538 pace to get 50% of the delegates that you were citing before, and now you are saying, "Trump will definitely win 1237 delegates" and to back that up are reduced to citing a slate.com article which actually says, "Trump is in decent shape to reach 1,237 before the convention as long as the field remains split and he can keep taking his statewide and congressional-level pluralities".

Are you sure you aren't just a trump fanboy?

[jimmy olsen]

Are you sure you aren't just a trump fanboy?

Since you know my political stances, what is the point of making such a baseless accusation?

[derspiess]

Tim has gone full lefty. 

[jimmy olsen]

Tim has gone full lefty.

I'm rather more hawkish and prolife than the average Democrat, but on most domestic policy, that's true.

[Lettow77]

Considering that Jeff Davis was located wearing women's attire, it might have been a queef.

A misrepresentation of the facts and a slander that has shown terrible vitality.

Although it is noble and natural to seek to Be the Little Girl, Davis was not engaged in any such activities at the time.

[derspiess]

wtf