2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Lettow77]

You realize Trump is about as Yankee as they come.

I do. That's why I referred to him as "that foul yankee" and hope against his seizing the heights of government on the backs of misled Southern voters.

[jimmy olsen]

In the unlikely event I married a Korean,

There are a lot of ways I could go with this, but Jesus I can't believe you are an English teacher.

Super Tuesday for the Republicans has 632 delegates at stake. The NYT has a live projection of the total delegates to be awarded and have Trump coming in around 250.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-republican-delegate-estimates.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

538 has Trump coming in at 262. Either way, you are wrong. 538 does not have Trump on pace to be over 50% of delegates either tonight or cumulatively.

He was on pace beforehand, and he will remain on pace when the night is done

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

His target for tonight is a total of 297 and he'll have 345

There are 632 delegates tonight. There were 30 in Iowa, 23 in New Hampshire, 50 in South Carolina and 30 in Nevada -- that is 765 delegates awarded after tonight.

He entered tonight with 82 delegates, and based on the rosier projection of 538 will win 262 tonight. So that is 344.

I hate to break out the complex division problem for you, but 344 out of 765 is less than 50%. If he doesn't pick up the pace, he will not get the nomination without a brokered convention. As I said before, there are reasons to think he might pick up the pace, but that doesn't change he has gotten less than 50% of delegates awarded. Which was not the case entering tonight.

344 is 47 more than 538 projects he would need to have at this point if he was going to win 1237 delegates.

Trump and Rubio don't need to have 50% of the delegates now, to be on pace to have 50% of the delegates when the primaries are over. Cruz on the other hand would need more than 50% of delegates votes now to be on pace to have 50% of the delegates when the campaign ends. You are failing to factor in the electoral geography. 

[alfred russel]

344 is 47 more than 538 projects he would need to have at this point if he was going to win 1237 delegates.

Trump and Rubio don't need to have 50% of the delegates now, to be on pace to have 50% of the delegates when the primaries are over. Cruz on the other hand would need more than 50% of delegates votes now to be on pace to have 50% of the delegates when the campaign ends. You are failing to factor in the electoral geography.

I state again how bizarre it is that you ignore the 538 model for months because you think it is wrong and then begin citing it on some rather arcane projections.

The model assumes that the nature of the race stays as it is - which it absolutely will not on the Republican side. Candidates will be dropping out. As the field shrinks, voters will be differently allocated. The debate and media coverage will change with less candidates to cover. Just look at tongiht. Without Kasich and Carson, it is very possible that Rubio would have won Vermont and Virginia and Cruz Arkansas. The geography may get somewhat more favorable for Trump, but other factors will work against him. (though a big factor in his favor is that winner take all states are about to kick off in a couple weeks)

The bottom line is that after tonight 44-45% of delegates will have been won by Trump, which is obviously less than 50% needed for a brokered convention.

[derspiess]

For those on the dumbass Trump Train - I'm looking at you Legbiter, Phillip V, Martinus, and Tim - my brother who works in Georgia told me the anecdote that sums up what is behind the Trump wins tongiht. He was visiting the factory floor, and a lady down there told him she thought Rubio would make the best president, but she voted for Trump because she didn't think Rubio was American enough.

Make American Great Again Y'all!!!

The most common reason I'm gathering from the Trump-supporting friends and acquaintances of mine is that "he'll do something, damnit" unlike all those career politicians that just talk and do nothing.  Exactly what he'll do seems of secondary importance.  Many of these people are evangelicals who know Trump isn't one and don't care.  They know Trump supports some of what Planned Parenthood does and don't care.  They know he supports an individual mandate for health insurance and don't care-- and so on.  These are very conservative people (most of them to the right of me) and would never give any other politician or public figure a pass on these issues. 

Also from my small sample he seems to be fairly popular among veterans.  One friend of mine has been a die-hard supporter since Trump said he'd fire everyone in the Veterans Administration.

[Admiral Yi]

Yeah this is that moment the Athenian mob all rallied behind Alcibiades.

Surely Cleon, not Alcibiades.

[CountDeMoney]

The most common reason I'm gathering from the Trump-supporting friends and acquaintances of mine is that "he'll do something, damnit" unlike all those career politicians that just talk and do nothing.  Exactly what he'll do seems of secondary importance.

I find it interesting how seeing all these man-on-the-street interviews and poll numbers, there's so much attraction to how Trump "tells it like it is."  Telling what like what is, exactly...well, that isn't really elaborated upon.  'Murica.

[Eddie Teach]

I loved how he was asked point blank in a debate *how* he would make Mexico pay for his wall and his answer was "They need to pay and I'll make them pay, believe me."

[jimmy olsen]

I loved how he was asked point blank in a debate *how* he would make Mexico pay for his wall and his answer was "They need to pay and I'll make them pay, believe me."

I think he plans to trash NAFTA and impose tarrifs on Mexican trade.

[Eddie Teach]

Ok, but why keep it a secret? Doesn't he need Congressional approval for that anyway?

[Phillip V]

Wow, Cruz really did do a lot better than Rubio!

From 538

David Wasserman 12:06 AM

Back-Of-The-Envelope Delegate Projections: Tonight Sucks For Rubio


Here are my back-of-the-envelope delegate projections: Based on current vote counts and each state and district’s allocation rules, Trump is on track to end up with about 262 delegates, Cruz is on track to win about 215, and Rubio is on track to win about 93. That’s an even more awful result for Rubio than I thought, and it’s a lot worse for Rubio than The New York Times’s Upshot model is currently projecting. After tonight, Rubio could be more than 100 delegates behind Cruz and more than 200 delegates behind Trump.

The headlines and pundits seem to forget that Texas is a big state of delegates, and Texas is the home state of Ted Cruz.  Discounting with the expectation that every candidate wins their backyard, Cruz's 2nd place performance is not that impressive and unlikely to be replicated moving forward.

[jimmy olsen]

Wow, Cruz really did do a lot better than Rubio!

From 538

David Wasserman 12:06 AM

Back-Of-The-Envelope Delegate Projections: Tonight Sucks For Rubio


Here are my back-of-the-envelope delegate projections: Based on current vote counts and each state and district's allocation rules, Trump is on track to end up with about 262 delegates, Cruz is on track to win about 215, and Rubio is on track to win about 93. That's an even more awful result for Rubio than I thought, and it's a lot worse for Rubio than The New York Times's Upshot model is currently projecting. After tonight, Rubio could be more than 100 delegates behind Cruz and more than 200 delegates behind Trump.

The headlines and pundits seem to forget that Texas is a big state of delegates, and Texas is the home state of Ted Cruz.  Discounting with the expectation that every candidate wins their backyard, Cruz's 2nd place performance is not that impressive and unlikely to be replicated moving forward.

The fact that Rubio failed to get 20% of the vote in Texas helped Cruz a lot, meant he got to take a bigger share of the spoils.

[Eddie Teach]

If Rubio and Kasich win their winner-take-all home states, that brokered convention looks pretty likely.

Heck, maybe they should even collude.

[jimmy olsen]

If Rubio and Kasich win their winner-take-all home states, that brokered convention looks pretty likely.

Heck, maybe they should even collude.

Trumps up an average of 19.5% in Florida
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html

Only one recent poll in Ohio, but Trump was up 5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_republican_presidential_primary-4077.html

[Phillip V]

In the unlikely event I married a Korean,

There are a lot of ways I could go with this, but Jesus I can't believe you are an English teacher.

Super Tuesday for the Republicans has 632 delegates at stake. The NYT has a live projection of the total delegates to be awarded and have Trump coming in around 250.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/upshot/super-tuesday-live-republican-delegate-estimates.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

538 has Trump coming in at 262. Either way, you are wrong. 538 does not have Trump on pace to be over 50% of delegates either tonight or cumulatively.

He was on pace beforehand, and he will remain on pace when the night is done

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

His target for tonight is a total of 297 and he'll have 345

There are 632 delegates tonight. There were 30 in Iowa, 23 in New Hampshire, 50 in South Carolina and 30 in Nevada -- that is 765 delegates awarded after tonight.

He entered tonight with 82 delegates, and based on the rosier projection of 538 will win 262 tonight. So that is 344.

I hate to break out the complex division problem for you, but 344 out of 765 is less than 50%. If he doesn't pick up the pace, he will not get the nomination without a brokered convention. As I said before, there are reasons to think he might pick up the pace, but that doesn't change he has gotten less than 50% of delegates awarded. Which was not the case entering tonight.

This is how it works.  Early states in the Republican primary calendar are mostly proportional awarding of delegates to keep the race competitive.  But beginning March 15, states switch to winner-take-all awarding of delegates, so the only "pace" that Trump needs is to keep getting first place (be it with 27% or 42%; doesn't matter 'cause he still gets all the delegates), which he is already doing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#Primary_schedule

Trump is far outperforming McCain '08 and Romney '12 in victories and delegates at the equivalent stage of their contests.

[Martinus]

Trump winning the nomination is made only more entertaining by watching Dorsey squirm trying to convince himself it won't happen.