2016 elections - because it's never too early

[11B4V]

Ching-ching-a-chong-ching-a-chong-ching-chong 

Youa lika filed a lice

[Eddie Teach]

I will now vote for Sanders if Kasich does not get the nomination.

I thought you were one of the 1%. 

[Fate]

After watching last night's debate I'm inclined to vote for Trump.

[Eddie Teach]

After watching last night's debate I'm inclined to vote for Trump.

His best performance all year.

[The Minsky Moment]

I have no idea why Hillary felt the need to the wear a rain slicker to the debate.  And Sanders going on about Kissinger?

So now we know that Sanders has no problems talking with the mullahs that took American diplomats hostage, but it is beyond the pale to swap words with Henry Kissinger.

[derspiess]

I have no idea why Hillary felt the need to the wear a rain slicker to the debate.  And Sanders going on about Kissinger?

So now we know that Sanders has no problems talking with the mullahs that took American diplomats hostage, but it is beyond the pale to swap words with Henry Kissinger.

That probably gets him Euro support, whatever that's worth.

[Valmy]

I have no idea why Hillary felt the need to the wear a rain slicker to the debate.  And Sanders going on about Kissinger?

Maybe Sanders spits while he talks.

[grumbler]

Gandalf doesn't die...

"Into the West" is a euphemism for death.  Gandalf, Bilbo, Frodo, and the rest all die at the end of LOTR.

[grumbler]

Ching-ching-a-chong-ching-a-chong-ching-chong 

Youa lika filed a lice

Are you having a stroke? 

[Phillip V]

New poll now out for South Carolina.

http://chronicle.augusta.com/politics/2016-02-12/new-sc-poll-shows-trump-heavy-favorite?v=1455274705

Trump- 36%
Cruz- 19%
Rubio- 15%
Bush- 11%
Kasich- 9%
Carson- 5%

Key takeaways:
- Trump remains favorite
- Huge drop for Carson in what should be a favorable environment for him; maybe should end campaign
- Another battle for second place.  Kasich is surprisingly competitive and now is gaining the name recognition and money to actually campaign in South Carolina.

[Barrister]

I'm going to call it now - Trump is going to be the nominee.

[The Brain]

Can Trump pay the legions out of his own pocket?

[alfred russel]

I'm going to call it now - Trump is going to be the nominee.

He won't be the nominee. Look at that poll - in SC, the first state of the confederacy, he is at 36%. The Bush/Rubio/Kasich trifecta is at 35%. He has also been vastly disproportionate media coverage. Bush/Rubio/Kasich will consolidate and the media focus on Trump will dissipate as the race gets more mature.

[Barrister]

I'm going to call it now - Trump is going to be the nominee.

He won't be the nominee. Look at that poll - in SC, the first state of the confederacy, he is at 36%. The Bush/Rubio/Kasich trifecta is at 35%. He has also been vastly disproportionate media coverage. Bush/Rubio/Kasich will consolidate and the media focus on Trump will dissipate as the race gets more mature.

I see you left out Cruz, but no matter.

That's what everyone has been saying - except it hasn't happened.  There's been no consolidation of the "establishment" candidates, and since they're all polling at around the same rate there's no reason for any of them to pull out.  And while only a couple of states have voted now, within a couple of weeks we'll have the so-called "SEC primary with over a dozen.  At some point Trump just has too big a lead to catch.

I was also reading an article about Trump's NH results.  He does best with middle aged whites without college degrees, true - but he won every single demographic group in New Hampshire.  Young, old, educated, not educated - all voted for Trump in the 30s.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/the-surprising-breadth-of-donald-trumps-appeal/462327/

[alfred russel]

I see you left out Cruz, but no matter.

That's what everyone has been saying - except it hasn't happened.  There's been no consolidation of the "establishment" candidates, and since they're all polling at around the same rate there's no reason for any of them to pull out.  And while only a couple of states have voted now, within a couple of weeks we'll have the so-called "SEC primary with over a dozen.  At some point Trump just has too big a lead to catch.

I was also reading an article about Trump's NH results.  He does best with middle aged whites without college degrees, true - but he won every single demographic group in New Hampshire.  Young, old, educated, not educated - all voted for Trump in the 30s.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/the-surprising-breadth-of-donald-trumps-appeal/462327/

There definitely has been consolidation. Look at all the "establishment" candidates that have dropped out: Christie, Fiorina, Walker, Perry, on and on. It is down to the final 3. One has no money - Kasich - one just blew an obscene fortune in New Hampshire to come in 4th and has been a national punch line - Bush - and one is some combination of the chosen one/a robot. All three are very vulnerable right now, and all three susceptible to pressure to get out of a battle they have lost. Whichever candidate comes in 5th in South Carolina may even drop out after that.

As I said before, I think it will probably end up a three way race between Trump, Cruz, and Bush/Rubio/Kasich. I don't see how Trump gets a majority of delegates in such a scenario, if he isn't on track to do so the party won't say "oh well close enough everyone else make way for trump" and if it comes down to the convention he is the least palatable candidate of the three and the biggest outlier.