2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Barrister]

Interesting article on the "deadline" the GOP is facing with Trump.  Even if you assume that Trump will only ever get 35% of the vote (which is unlikely as the field narrows) if the race isn't down to 2 candidates by Super Tuesday Trump wins.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/02/11/the-anti-trump-path-gets-very-narrow/

[alfred russel]

Interesting article on the "deadline" the GOP is facing with Trump.  Even if you assume that Trump will only ever get 35% of the vote (which is unlikely as the field narrows) if the race isn't down to 2 candidates by Super Tuesday Trump wins.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/02/11/the-anti-trump-path-gets-very-narrow/

That doesn't make sense. Even through Super Tuesday all states allocate their delegates (somewhat) proportionally. To get the nomination you need a majority of delegates. If Trump doesn't get more than 35% of the vote, he not only won't have secured the nomination after Super Tuesday, he won't even be on pace to get the nomination (at least without a floor fight).

[Barrister]

Interesting article on the "deadline" the GOP is facing with Trump.  Even if you assume that Trump will only ever get 35% of the vote (which is unlikely as the field narrows) if the race isn't down to 2 candidates by Super Tuesday Trump wins.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/02/11/the-anti-trump-path-gets-very-narrow/

That doesn't make sense. Even through Super Tuesday all states allocate their delegates (somewhat) proportionally. To get the nomination you need a majority of delegates. If Trump doesn't get more than 35% of the vote, he not only won't have secured the nomination after Super Tuesday, he won't even be on pace to get the nomination (at least without a floor fight).

But that's the thing - the delegates aren't awarded very proportionally at all.

http://prospect.org/article/gop-nomination-rules-tilt-playing-field-toward-donald-trump

[alfred russel]

But that's the thing - the delegates aren't awarded very proportionally at all.

http://prospect.org/article/gop-nomination-rules-tilt-playing-field-toward-donald-trump

Without going state by state, Trump has 17 delegates out of 50 awarded at the moment. 7/30 in Iowa and 10/23 in New Hampshire.

Even if he wins every state from here through Super Tuesday with 35% of the vote, while he may have a majority of delegates, he definitely won't have all of them, and some really big delegate states after that are winner take all. Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin, and California are a sample of the big ones. Yes you can win those with 35% of the vote too, but so long as consolidation occurs before then, it will be tough. I don't see showing up at the convention losing those states and still having a majority of delegates on the first ballot. 

[Admiral Yi]

Who decides whom a delegate committed to a candidate that dropped out votes for in rounds after the first?

[lustindarkness]

Who decides whom a delegate committed to a candidate that dropped out votes for in rounds after the first?

$

[Razgovory]

Who decides whom a delegate committed to a candidate that dropped out votes for in rounds after the first?

In the Democratic party, nobody.  Delegates are released.  I imagine it's similar in the GOP.

[Barrister]

But that's the thing - the delegates aren't awarded very proportionally at all.

http://prospect.org/article/gop-nomination-rules-tilt-playing-field-toward-donald-trump

Without going state by state, Trump has 17 delegates out of 50 awarded at the moment. 7/30 in Iowa and 10/23 in New Hampshire.

Even if he wins every state from here through Super Tuesday with 35% of the vote, while he may have a majority of delegates, he definitely won't have all of them, and some really big delegate states after that are winner take all. Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin, and California are a sample of the big ones. Yes you can win those with 35% of the vote too, but so long as consolidation occurs before then, it will be tough. I don't see showing up at the convention losing those states and still having a majority of delegates on the first ballot.

Which is why I said it has to be down to a 2-man race by Super Tuesday.

[alfred russel]

Which is why I said it has to be down to a 2-man race by Super Tuesday.

But BB, Super Tuesday is March 1. The first winner take all primary is March 15.

Suppose all 5 current candidates stick around until Super Tuesday. 25% of the delegates have been allocated: Trump at 15%, Cruz at 7%, Rubio at 3% and negligible totals for Bush and Kasich. Bush and Kasich, plummeting in the national polls, drop out shortly after Super Tuesday.

At that point, not only would I say Trump has failed to wrap up the nomination, I'd put my money on Rubio getting it.

[DGuller]

I'm not sure it's safe to assume that anyone not for Trump is against Trump.

[Phillip V]

First poll of Nevada this year has Clinton and Sanders tied.

http://freebeacon.com/politics/free-beacon-poll-clinton-and-sanders-tied-in-nevada/

Keep in mind that on Feb 20,  Dems vote in NV; Reps vote in SC.
On Feb 23, Reps vote in NV.  On Feb 27, Dems vote in SC.

[Barrister]

Which is why I said it has to be down to a 2-man race by Super Tuesday.

But BB, Super Tuesday is March 1. The first winner take all primary is March 15.

Suppose all 5 current candidates stick around until Super Tuesday. 25% of the delegates have been allocated: Trump at 15%, Cruz at 7%, Rubio at 3% and negligible totals for Bush and Kasich. Bush and Kasich, plummeting in the national polls, drop out shortly after Super Tuesday.

At that point, not only would I say Trump has failed to wrap up the nomination, I'd put my money on Rubio getting it.

Here's the money quote from the top-most post:

Most political journalists and readers have a wrong understanding of the early-state delegate process. It is not proportional at all, but what I call pseudo-proportional. As suggested by my computational simulation of the delegate process [the code is here], in a field of four candidates, an average-across-states vote share of 30% is enough to get 50% of delegates through Super Tuesday. That's an average: the winner could get 20% of the vote in Texas and 40% in Georgia, and so on. Donald Trump is well on track for this scenario: he won 24% of the vote in Iowa and 35% in New Hampshire. As of today, he is at 36% in national surveys.

Clearly Trump wouldn't have the nomination wrapped up by Super Tuesday - but he'll have a sizeable lead, and will continue to win delegates.  I don't think even if the rest of the field coalesced around one candidate they'd be able to stop Trump at that point.

Now, that being said, the point of no return is more likely March 15, rather than Super Tuesday.  I mis-read one of the articles.  But in any event that point is coming soon.

[Barrister]

I'm not sure it's safe to assume that anyone not for Trump is against Trump.

And this.  Very much this.

I think it likely that most people not supporting Trump are very anti-Trump, but certainly not all of them.  Voter preferences are much more fluid than many people realize.  I saw a brief blurb in one article about a Trump volunteer in NH.  Who had that volunteer worked for in 2012?  Why Obama of course.

[Admiral Yi]

Anyone seen any recent polls on The Donald's negatives?

[Maximus]

I'm not sure it's safe to assume that anyone not for Trump is against Trump.

I'm not sure it's safe to assume that anyone against Trump is not for Trump.