2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Barrister]

I really hope Cruz wins in Iowa so Trump doesn't.  Cruz can go down in flames a la Santorum, but if Trump takes Iowa he may just gin up support in more sane states.

I think Rubio ends up the nominee, but I'm not sure how we get there. Santorum was a dumbass who did dumbass things and had no money, all of which conspired to undermine his campaign, such as when he spent a few days campaigning in Puerto Rico only to lose the primary there by a zillion. Cruz is evil, but smart, and has money.

Iowa and New Hampshire are not red states. If Cruz wins Iowa, and Trump New Hampshire, where does the Rubio magic come from?

*knocks on wood*

It's all about expectations.  If current results hold up, Rubio wins because he does better than expected.  Trump loses, because he was leading the polls and predicted victory.

[alfred russel]

Iowa and New Hampshire are not red states. If Cruz wins Iowa, and Trump New Hampshire, where does the Rubio magic come from?

Thing is, Rubio can come in third and have it be considered a win due to momentum. He had been getting 10-12% in polls for ages. Course, he'll need to continue that momentum in upcoming states.

Agree, but less momentum than Cruz who is winning, and Trump is probably going to win New Hampshire.

[Barrister]

Iowa and New Hampshire are not red states. If Cruz wins Iowa, and Trump New Hampshire, where does the Rubio magic come from?

Thing is, Rubio can come in third and have it be considered a win due to momentum. He had been getting 10-12% in polls for ages. Course, he'll need to continue that momentum in upcoming states.

Agree, but less momentum than Cruz who is winning, and Trump is probably going to win New Hampshire.

A candidate took a 3rd place showing in New Hampshire as being the "comeback kid" and eventually won the nomination, and the presidency...

Expectations are everything.

[Phillip V]

Iowa and New Hampshire are not red states. If Cruz wins Iowa, and Trump New Hampshire, where does the Rubio magic come from?

Thing is, Rubio can come in third and have it be considered a win due to momentum. He had been getting 10-12% in polls for ages. Course, he'll need to continue that momentum in upcoming states.

Agree, but less momentum than Cruz who is winning, and Trump is probably going to win New Hampshire.

A Cruz win holds back the feared Trump steam roll.  Rubio outperforms in a close third place, and then rest of the establishment money, endorsements, and dropped out candidates rush to support him before New Hampshire and South Carolina.

[DGuller]

How stupid are the people of Iowa? 

[Admiral Yi]

I'm back.

No internet on the phone.  It's prepaid.

The Republican caucus was wham bam thank you ma'am.  The Carson speaker went on and on and on but everyone else was short and sweet.  Sat next to the only two cute soccer moms in the room.  I think I convinced them to switch (from Fiorina??) to Rubio to stop Trump.  Dude speaking for Rand Paul looked like Kylo Ren.  There was a chick recording the proceedings on a phone.  I saw a younger Mexican looking dude there.  There was no Trump speaker, which surprised me, and also lessened the drama.

The Democratic caucus was a zoo.  The line to get in stretched the entire length of the building.  As I was heading out I asked some people in the lobby what stage of the process they were at and they said they hadn't even gotten past the registration desk yet.

It was very Norman Rockwellesque to see all these civic minded folks trooping into the elementary school on a February Monday night.

Had a couple pints with a brace of caucus goers at the Regal Beagle (which is just across the fence from the school) afterwards.

[Caliga]

Had a couple pints with a brace of caucus goers at the Regal Beagle (which is just across the fence from the school) afterwards.

Say hi to Larry for me.

[alfred russel]

A Cruz win holds back the feared Trump steam roll.  Rubio outperforms in a close third place, and then rest of the establishment money, endorsements, and dropped out candidates rush to support him before New Hampshire and South Carolina.

I'm sure Team Rubio is as elated as any team save Team Cruz. He probably just became the establishment candidate. He still finished #3 and #2 is way ahead in New Hampshire. Unless Trump implodes and loses New Hampshire, it looks like there will be three strong candidates coming out of New Hampshire. And that is assuming he does well in New Hampshire--which I think he will with a strong 3rd place showing in Iowa--but he is currently 5th in the RCP average there behind Trump and Cruz.

[Eddie Teach]

Rubio and Cruz have very similar voting records anyway. Either one could win the nomination, though Cruz seems to have pissed a lot of people off.

[alfred russel]

No internet on the phone.  It's prepaid.

Has 2010 not yet arrived in Iowa, or is Yi in the mob?

[celedhring]

Looks like the democratic caucus is going down to the wire.

Why am I watching this? It's 4 am over here 

[Admiral Yi]

Has 2010 not yet arrived in Iowa, or is Yi in the mob?

Whenever I need to google something someone else always has a phone.  Why pay $80 month when I can pay $25 every 3 months?

Google says Hill 50.3 Bern 49 w/ 76% reporting.  GOP stuck on 62% reporting.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Didn't realize that Gilmore has extended family in Iowa:


Or maybe his mom voted 10 times.

[Phillip V]

Didn't realize that Gilmore has extended family in Iowa:


Or maybe his mom voted 10 times.

Gilmore Girls has announced it is coming back on air.

[Grinning_Colossus]

Looks like the democratic caucus is going down to the wire.

Except O'Malley has suspended his campaign.