2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Valmy]

Yes. The country is headed to destruction, or has already been destroyed, and we must resort of radical change to save it seems to be a point of faith for so many people. I just find it baffling. Where is this social, economic, and political collapse they are all talking about? Everything seems pretty damn good here. If it happens it seems likely it will be because it was all manufactured by these same crazies.

[DGuller]

It's amazing how many stories one can come up with based on a set of biased and noisy polls.  A statistician in me cries out in anguish.

[The Minsky Moment]

You're missing the point Valmy.  If things were really bad, people wouldn't be flirting with the Monster Raving Looney party candidates.  It's precisely because things are pretty OK that there is a willingness to take a flyer on a guy just because he "tells it like it is" or some such nonsense. And what is bothering these people is not the latest GDP figures or employment survey but the perception that American is changing demographically in ways that disturb them.

[Berkut]

You're missing the point Valmy.  If things were really bad, people wouldn't be flirting with the Monster Raving Looney party candidates.  It's precisely because things are pretty OK that there is a willingness to take a flyer on a guy just because he "tells it like it is" or some such nonsense. And what is bothering these people is not the latest GDP figures or employment survey but the perception that American is changing demographically in ways that disturb them.

Bingo.

What bothers me is that I do believe that there are actual and real fundamental problems that threaten US democracy and our system of government and society.

But mostly those problems are given, at best, lip service, while everyone argues about how we should pay for health care or whether some dumbass clerk can thumb their nose at gay people.

[DGuller]

Yes. The country is headed to destruction, or has already been destroyed, and we must resort of radical change to save it seems to be a point of faith for so many people. I just find it baffling. Where is this social, economic, and political collapse they are all talking about? Everything seems pretty damn good here. If it happens it seems likely it will be because it was all manufactured by these same crazies.

I think that we're going through another age of mass misinformation and propaganda. 

When Internet first came about, most people assumed that now that everyone will access to a lot of information, people won't be misinformed anymore.  Apparently we all forgot that people are people, and not logic machines.  And what we discovered is that the trick to propaganda is teaching people how to filter out information, not in fooling them with the information directly.  For example, Russian citizens can still freely roam the Internet, so they can escape the propaganda hold of the Russian TV.  But they've been conditioned to think that everything in the Western media is a lie, so when they encounter conflicting news, their expectation is reinforced.

We have the same problem in US.  Certain segments of population are conditioned to think that our society is disintegrating, so they'll seek out all the confirmation to that fact, and filter out anything that runs counter to it.  The age of Internet actually makes this problem worse, because with more information out there, there is more crap out there to be selectively ingested.

How do we fix this?  No fucking idea.  I just hope that there are some fundamental factors in the people's worldview, and once misinformation becomes so much at odds with these fundamentals, something will snap people out of it.  But I'm not optimistic about it.

[Berkut]

Yes. The country is headed to destruction, or has already been destroyed, and we must resort of radical change to save it seems to be a point of faith for so many people. I just find it baffling. Where is this social, economic, and political collapse they are all talking about? Everything seems pretty damn good here. If it happens it seems likely it will be because it was all manufactured by these same crazies.

I think that we're going through another age of mass misinformation and propaganda. 

When Internet first came about, most people assumed that now that everyone will access to a lot of information, people won't be misinformed anymore.  Apparently we all forgot that people are people, and not logic machines.  And what we discovered is that the trick to propaganda is teaching people how to filter out information, not in fooling them with the information directly.  For example, Russian citizens can still freely roam the Internet, so they can escape the propaganda hold of the Russian TV.  But they've been conditioned to think that everything in the Western media is a lie, so when they encounter conflicting news, their expectation is reinforced.

We have the same problem in US.  Certain segments of population are conditioned to think that our society is disintegrating, so they'll seek out all the confirmation to that fact, and filter out anything that runs counter to it.  The age of Internet actually makes this problem worse, because with more information out there, there is more crap out there to be selectively ingested.

How do we fix this?  No fucking idea.  I just hope that there are some fundamental factors in the people's worldview, and once misinformation becomes so much at odds with these fundamentals, something will snap people out of it.  But I'm not optimistic about it.

What saddens me is that what you are saying, and I basically agree with it, pretty much sinks my previous ideas about Humanism, and the "faith" so to speak that more information, more access, more transparency results in a net increase in human satisfaction/happiness/"goodness" whatever.

Of course, it may be  that we are simply in a transitional phase, one of those moments in history where the line is taking a unusual dip as a result of radical change.

On the other hand, I suspect maybe I am just telling myself that because I want to believe it is true. After all, human history has examples aplenty of where the generally positive course of human history took radical negative turns for what was effectively the entire world for certain population groups, and persisted for very long times.

Give that there are no longer really geographically separated cultural groups - the planet itself is the group - in that fashion, my worry is that a "temporary" dip could be unrecoverable.

[frunk]

When Internet first came about, most people assumed that now that everyone will access to a lot of information, people won't be misinformed anymore.  Apparently we all forgot that people are people, and not logic machines.  And what we discovered is that the trick to propaganda is teaching people how to filter out information, not in fooling them with the information directly.  For example, Russian citizens can still freely roam the Internet, so they can escape the propaganda hold of the Russian TV.  But they've been conditioned to think that everything in the Western media is a lie, so when they encounter conflicting news, their expectation is reinforced.

I think the problem isn't that people are filtering out information, but rather their information filters are poorly calibrated.  There's no way any human could hope to keep up with the amount of information flooding the world right now.  The key is to determine what is important and what is likely to be true.  To some extent Russian media doesn't have to convince people that western media lies, just drown out and confuse it with tons of contradictory and distracting information.

[garbon]

What a bunch of worrywarts.

[DGuller]

I think the problem isn't that people are filtering out information, but rather their information filters are poorly calibrated.

Yeah, absolutely.  I wasn't meaning to say that you shouldn't have a filter.  You absolutely do need a filter, which is why people are vulnerable to brainwashing.

[alfred russel]

Pat Buchanan won the Republican primary in New Hampshire back in 1996--pre internet but not that long ago. In the early 1990s, a former grand wizard of the KKK won a majority of the white vote in a Louisiana election for governor.

To the extent the Trump phenomena is about xenophobia, it isn't a new one sparked by the internet.

[DGuller]

Pat Buchanan won the Republican primary in New Hampshire back in 1996--pre internet but not that long ago. In the early 1990s, a former grand wizard of the KKK won a majority of the white vote in a Louisiana election for governor.

To the extent the Trump phenomena is about xenophobia, it isn't a new one sparked by the internet.

It's both.  Intolerance is often the gateway to brainwashing.  In case of Russians, for example, Putin appealed to their extreme homophobia, among other things.

[MadImmortalMan]

Jim Webb dropped out. Boo.

Where's CdM to commiserate? 

[Hansmeister]

Jim Webb dropped out. Boo.

Where's CdM to commiserate? 

I think halfway through the democratic debate when the other candidates were embracing socialism he thought "waitaminute- I spent half my life fighting socialists!"

[Valmy]

He did fight in Vietnam I hear.

[jimmy olsen]

Monmouth poll

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/1c284c69-c5e0-4498-bd3b-797b7ba1be54.pdf

Trump 28%
Carson 18%
Cruz 10%
Fiorina 6%
Rubio 6%
Bush 5%
Paul 4%
Christie 3%
Garaham  1%
Jindal  1%
Kisaich 1%
Pataki >1%
Santorum 0%
Gilmore 0%