2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Razgovory]

We're not talking about what would happen today.  We're talking about what would happen when Carson implodes or peters out.  The landscape is going to be much different when that happens.

What's going to change? Will the GOP primary electorate be any less angry?

With Carson in particular, people will just get fed up, and at the very least go with some other joke candidate.  His job is to stand there and be visibly black, not to keep saying things that are just plain dumb.  Yes, Republicans must say dumb things to stay politically alive, but not every dumb thing that you can say as a Republican helps you stay politically alive.

Apart from that, in the last election, we went through a flurry of joke candidates as well, all of whom at some point "surged" to the top.  Eventually people realized that the jokes are jokes, and that your presidential candidate has to be presidential.

Well, than as the graphic I posted showed, most of his support will go to Trump

And if Trump has already dropped out?

[jimmy olsen]

Goldwater and McGovern were both nominated due to discontent among the base, Trump, Carson or Sanders gaining their party's nomination is not impossible.

Both Goldwater and McGovern were both two term senators.  Trump and Carson are more like Jesse Jackson or Pat Robertson; they might win a couple primaries, but when people start thinking of them as the next president rather than as a protest candidate, they'll fall apart.

I think Sanders is a long shot, but not impossible.

There are only 4 primaries before Super Tuesday this cycle. There won't be time for them to fall apart if they're still riding high by the time Iowa and New Hampshire roll around. Worse for the GOP, they changed most of the states from proportional delegates to winner take all. They did that because they assumed that like Romney, Bush or another establishment candidate would have at least a plurality. Giving the winner all the delegates would allow the establishment candidate to wrap up the primary early instead of allowing the outside candidates to hang around. Unfortunately for them, Trump and Carson both lead any establishment candidate by double digits, so they're going to rake in huge numbers of delegates by the end of Super Tuesday.

[Savonarola]

Goldwater and McGovern were both nominated due to discontent among the base, Trump, Carson or Sanders gaining their party's nomination is not impossible.

Both Goldwater and McGovern were both two term senators.  Trump and Carson are more like Jesse Jackson or Pat Robertson; they might win a couple primaries, but when people start thinking of them as the next president rather than as a protest candidate, they'll fall apart.

I think Sanders is a long shot, but not impossible.

There are only 4 primaries before Super Tuesday this cycle.

And they might win one or two of them.

There won't be time for them to fall apart if they're still riding high by the time Iowa and New Hampshire roll around.

They've got three weeks, that's more than enough time to collapse.  Howard Dean managed to do in a single night.

[jimmy olsen]

And they might win one or two of them.

They've got three weeks, that's more than enough time to collapse.  Howard Dean managed to do in a single night.

Trump and Carson are in the lead in all four.

Just look at the schedule, an establishment candidate might win Massachusetts, Vermont and Minnesota. Trump and Carson are going to sweep the rest.

February 1, 2016    Iowa    30    Closed caucus
February 9, 2016    New Hampshire    23    Modified primary
February 20, 2016    South Carolina    50    Open primary
February 23, 2016    Nevada    30    Closed caucus
March 1, 2016    Alabama    50    Open primary
March 1, 2016    Alaska    28    Closed caucus
March 1, 2016    Arkansas    40    Open primary
March 1, 2016    Georgia    76    Modified primary
March 1, 2016    Massachusetts    42    Modified primary
March 1, 2016    Minnesota    38    Open caucus
March 1, 2016    Oklahoma    43    Closed primary
March 1, 2016    Tennessee    58    Open primary
March 1, 2016    Texas    155    Open primary
March 1, 2016    Vermont    16    Open primary
March 1, 2016    Virginia    49    Open primary
March 1, 2016    Wyoming    29    Closed caucus

[Berkut]

If someone like Carson or Trump actually got the nomination, I wonder if someone like Kasich would actually endorse them.

I mean, you would actually have to believe that the Democrats are actively trying to destroy America to ever think that someone like Trump of Carson would be good the country in comparison to a Clinton.

[Savonarola]

Trump and Carson are in the lead in all four.

But the voting isn't being held for another four months.  I'm not sure why your confused.  People's perception of the candidates will change in time.  A major change will occur in February as people go from viewing the candidates as protest votes to viewing them as the potential President of the United States.

[Valmy]

If someone like Carson or Trump actually got the nomination, I wonder if someone like Kasich would actually endorse them.

I mean, you would actually have to believe that the Democrats are actively trying to destroy America to ever think that someone like Trump of Carson would be good the country in comparison to a Clinton.

Considering how disastrous even a 'RINO moderate' or 'compassionate conservtive' like dubya was as President really any of the candidates being elected is horrifying. I feel like we are staring into the Abyss right now.

[lustindarkness]

If someone like Carson or Trump actually got the nomination, I wonder if someone like Kasich would actually endorse them.

I mean, you would actually have to believe that the Democrats are actively trying to destroy America to ever think that someone like Trump of Carson would be good the country in comparison to a Clinton.

I'm sure many do believe that the Democrats are trying to actively destroy America, and they also believe America should be destroyed by the Republicans instead.

[Razgovory]

If someone like Carson or Trump actually got the nomination, I wonder if someone like Kasich would actually endorse them.

I mean, you would actually have to believe that the Democrats are actively trying to destroy America to ever think that someone like Trump of Carson would be good the country in comparison to a Clinton.

Trump and Carson appeal to people who don't like politicians and don't understand thatstatecraft is a skill.

[garbon]

If someone like Carson or Trump actually got the nomination, I wonder if someone like Kasich would actually endorse them.

I mean, you would actually have to believe that the Democrats are actively trying to destroy America to ever think that someone like Trump of Carson would be good the country in comparison to a Clinton.

Considering how disastrous even a 'RINO moderate' or 'compassionate conservtive' like dubya was as President really any of the candidates being elected is horrifying. I feel like we are staring into the Abyss right now.

[Valmy]

Which part?

[garbon]

Both ends. 'Disastrous' and 'Abyss'. Fine with the horrifying bit.

[Valmy]

Both ends. 'Disastrous' and 'Abyss'. Fine with the horrifying bit.

Ah. Got it. Well it did not go well and I feel like we are looking at somebody with the potential to be worse. That work?

[garbon]

Sure. Much less dramatic.

[Tonitrus]

http://news.yahoo.com/clintons-debate-showing-may-spell-trouble-biden-061944946.html

Since Biden isn't going to run, I don't see why this is trouble for him.

Biden's biggest likely hurdle is that he would be the oldest person ever to assume the presidency (though tied with Reagan for simply being elected).