2016 elections - because it's never too early

[jimmy olsen]

Nope, most go to Trump. Dude raised $20 million last quarter though, more than Jeb, he ain't going anywhere.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/10/14/so-what-happens-after-donald-trump-and-ben-carson/

[DGuller]

We're not talking about what would happen today.  We're talking about what would happen when Carson implodes or peters out.  The landscape is going to be much different when that happens.

[jimmy olsen]

We're not talking about what would happen today.  We're talking about what would happen when Carson implodes or peters out.  The landscape is going to be much different when that happens.

What's going to change? Will the GOP primary electorate be any less angry?

[dps]

We're not talking about what would happen today.  We're talking about what would happen when Carson implodes or peters out.  The landscape is going to be much different when that happens.

What's going to change? Will the GOP primary electorate be any less angry?

Have you ever actually followed any past Presidential elections?  Even aside from candidates making terrible gaffes and dirt being dug up on someone, the mood of the electorate can change dramatically in just a few months.

[jimmy olsen]

We're not talking about what would happen today.  We're talking about what would happen when Carson implodes or peters out.  The landscape is going to be much different when that happens.

What's going to change? Will the GOP primary electorate be any less angry?

Have you ever actually followed any past Presidential elections?  Even aside from candidates making terrible gaffes and dirt being dug up on someone, the mood of the electorate can change dramatically in just a few months.

Goldwater and McGovern were both nominated due to discontent among the base, Trump, Carson or Sanders gaining their party's nomination is not impossible.

[Tonitrus]

It's looking like, for now, that it will come down to a Trump/Carson face-off for the primaries.

And I am still not entirely doubting that Trump's candidacy started as an attempt to troll the Republican party, and got so carried away with its own success, that he decided to play it to the hilt.  And even if so, he would probably play it all the way to the General election (likely thinking it'd be against Hillary), presuming he might lose there.  And if looks like he might have a chance to win?  Where is the downside?  For Trump, there is no downside...in any scenario.

[DGuller]

We're not talking about what would happen today.  We're talking about what would happen when Carson implodes or peters out.  The landscape is going to be much different when that happens.

What's going to change? Will the GOP primary electorate be any less angry?

With Carson in particular, people will just get fed up, and at the very least go with some other joke candidate.  His job is to stand there and be visibly black, not to keep saying things that are just plain dumb.  Yes, Republicans must say dumb things to stay politically alive, but not every dumb thing that you can say as a Republican helps you stay politically alive.

Apart from that, in the last election, we went through a flurry of joke candidates as well, all of whom at some point "surged" to the top.  Eventually people realized that the jokes are jokes, and that your presidential candidate has to be presidential.

[Tonitrus]

Eventually people realized that the jokes are jokes, and that your presidential candidate has to be presidential.

Except that if Trump/Carson end up being the two front-runners to the end, most might think Carson beats Trump in being sensible/presidential. 

[DGuller]

Eventually people realized that the jokes are jokes, and that your presidential candidate has to be presidential.

Except that if Trump/Carson end up being the two front-runners to the end, most might think Carson beats Trump in being sensible/presidential. 

But it's not going to be down to those two.  You can't look presidential when you can't even keep your eyes open while you talk.

[Tonitrus]

Eventually people realized that the jokes are jokes, and that your presidential candidate has to be presidential.

Except that if Trump/Carson end up being the two front-runners to the end, most might think Carson beats Trump in being sensible/presidential. 

But it's not going to be down to those two.  You can't look presidential when you can't even keep your eyes open while you talk.

Who would you suggest will end up displacing Carson as the runner up to Trump?

[DGuller]

Who would you suggest will end up displacing Carson as the runner up to Trump?

Eventually?  Probably Rubio.  Ted Cruz may get there first, but that creepy face does not look presidential either.

[jimmy olsen]

We're not talking about what would happen today.  We're talking about what would happen when Carson implodes or peters out.  The landscape is going to be much different when that happens.

What's going to change? Will the GOP primary electorate be any less angry?

With Carson in particular, people will just get fed up, and at the very least go with some other joke candidate.  His job is to stand there and be visibly black, not to keep saying things that are just plain dumb.  Yes, Republicans must say dumb things to stay politically alive, but not every dumb thing that you can say as a Republican helps you stay politically alive.

Apart from that, in the last election, we went through a flurry of joke candidates as well, all of whom at some point "surged" to the top.  Eventually people realized that the jokes are jokes, and that your presidential candidate has to be presidential.

Well, than as the graphic I posted showed, most of his support will go to Trump

[garbon]

Way too put the conversation back in circles, Tim.

[garbon]

http://news.yahoo.com/clintons-debate-showing-may-spell-trouble-biden-061944946.html

Since Biden isn't going to run, I don't see why this is trouble for him.

https://gma.yahoo.com/joe-biden-aide-sends-letter-detailing-vice-presidents-035728913--abc-news-topstories.html

Joe Biden Aide Sends Letter Detailing Vice President's Looming 2016 Decision

In a letter sent to former staffers Thursday, one of Vice President Joe Biden's closest confidants explained Biden is approaching a decision about 2016 and detailed what a potential presidential campaign might entail.

Former Delaware Senator Ted Kaufman, one of Biden's oldest friends and long time advisors, wrote a letter to former Biden staffers Thursday indicating the vice president is "aware of the practical demands of making a final decision soon" and describing how the vice president would run an "optimistic campaign" focusing on reviving the middle class.

"If he runs, he will run because of his burning conviction that we need to fundamentally change the balance in our economy and the political structure to restore the ability of the middle class to get ahead," Kaufman wrote.

"What kind of campaign? An optimistic campaign. A campaign from the heart. A campaign consistent with his values, our values, and the values of the American people. And I think it's fair to say, knowing him as we all do, that it won't be a scripted affair-- after all, it's Joe," he wrote.

The letter, which was first obtained by the Los Angeles Times and Associated Press, is the most public signal yet from Biden's inner sanctum about the status of the vice president's deliberations. Kaufman is part of the small, tight-knit group advising the vice president about 2016.

Kaufman told the former staffers the vice president would quickly need their help should he mount a presidential bid.

"If he decides to run, we will need each and every one of you – yesterday!," Kaufman wrote.

In the letter to Biden alumni, Kaufman directly tied the vice president to President Obama, saying "everything he and the President have worked for – and care about – is at stake," in this election.

Still weighing largely on the vice president's decision making process are concerns for his family as they continue to grapple with the death of his son Beau in May.

The calls for the vice president to decide if he'll enter the 2016 race have risen since the first Democratic debate earlier this week. Some of that pressure has come from the campaign of his potential opponent, Hillary Clinton.

"It's time for him to make his decision if he wants to enter the Democratic race," John Podesta, Hillary Clinton's national campaign chairman said Wednesday.

Logistical hurdles for launching a presidential campaign are quickly approaching, as filing deadlines to gain access on ballots in primary and caucus states begin at the end of the month.

[Savonarola]

Goldwater and McGovern were both nominated due to discontent among the base, Trump, Carson or Sanders gaining their party's nomination is not impossible.

Both Goldwater and McGovern were both two term senators.  Trump and Carson are more like Jesse Jackson or Pat Robertson; they might win a couple primaries, but when people start thinking of them as the next president rather than as a protest candidate, they'll fall apart.

I think Sanders is a long shot, but not impossible.