2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Jacob]

I just had a beautiful fantasy: I wake up tomorrow and read that the KGB hacked the results.

Assuming for a moment that they did, would it be found out tomorrow?

Assuming it gets found out later, would it change a thing? What would the US do if, in one or two months it turns out that there was significant outside interference in the election such that it flipped to Trump?

I actually think that would make things worse...

[Berkut]

Okay, so I always figured myself as a smart and experienced political operator.  I was a Campaign Manager twice - once Federally, once provincially (we predictably got smoked each time as each time we ran against really strong incumbents).

One of the things I was taught, and always believed, was that a "ground game" was important.  Identify your vote, get them out to vote on election day.

That was one of the things Trump scoffed at - and one of the reasons I thought he would lose.  He had no ground game, no GOTV effort, nothing.  Just the power of earned media and his celebrity.

I guess maybe I was wrong about what I thought was important in politics.  And maybe Trump, as stupid as he is, was right.

I'm still not convinced enough to give Trump credit for all his wins.  He was just a stupidly reckless poker player who kept going all-in, and accidentally got into a game full of wimps.  Sometimes those reckless morons live charmed lives and never run into aces with a lot of chips in the middle for far longer than seems possible.  Eventually it catches up with them, eventually...

The man looks set to be the next POTUS.  Summer 2015 his candidacy was a laughingstock.  Hell two weeks ago his candidacy was a laughingstock.

You don't have to like the man (I don't) to be willing to give him some sort of credit for this unbelievable win.

I don't give him any credit at all.

At best he tapped into a well spring of bigotry and hatred and glorification of ignorance and rode it to power.

That doesn't make him anyone worthy of admiration or credit.

[Caliga]

Well, I'm going to bed since it's 1 AM and it's obvious that Trump has won.  All hail the New World Order.

[Maladict]

I just had a beautiful fantasy: I wake up tomorrow and read that the KGB hacked the results.

I was just thinking the same thing. 

[Admiral Yi]

Assuming it gets found out later, would it change a thing? What would the US do if, in one or two months it turns out that there was significant outside interference in the election such that it flipped to Trump?

Sure.  If we discovered the results reported were not the actual results, we would go with the actual results.

[CountDeMoney]

Okay, so I always figured myself as a smart and experienced political operator.  I was a Campaign Manager twice - once Federally, once provincially (we predictably got smoked each time as each time we ran against really strong incumbents).

One of the things I was taught, and always believed, was that a "ground game" was important.  Identify your vote, get them out to vote on election day.

That was one of the things Trump scoffed at - and one of the reasons I thought he would lose.  He had no ground game, no GOTV effort, nothing.  Just the power of earned media and his celebrity.

I guess maybe I was wrong about what I thought was important in politics.  And maybe Trump, as stupid as he is, was right.

You have this maddeningly annoying habit of making observations of equivalency when it comes to the US.   

Once again, for the cheap seats, and this time with feeling, you are from another fucking country.

[mongers]

OK, we've entered some tortured limbo, but I need some sleep, so see you all on the other side of Rubicon.

[Tonitrus]

Michael Moore's prediction is looking to have been the most legit right now.

And this is where the math comes in. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 64 electoral votes. Add up the electoral votes cast by Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It's 64. All Trump needs to do to win is to carry, as he's expected to do, the swath of traditional red states from Idaho to Georgia (states that'll never vote for Hillary Clinton), and then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn't need Florida. He doesn't need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.

[HisMajestyBOB]

BB, there are over 300m people in the country. A centralized ground game only gets you so far.

It's a country that looks to have given Hillary the nod by 1% in the popular vote.  Apparently a ground game gets you pretty much nothing.

It got her additional votes in already blue states.

[HVC]

Assuming it gets found out later, would it change a thing? What would the US do if, in one or two months it turns out that there was significant outside interference in the election such that it flipped to Trump?

Sure.  If we discovered the results reported were not the actual results, we would go with the actual results.

You don't think it would cause massive unrest? I envision the NRA loving good old boys doing something very dangerous. 

[DGuller]

The man looks set to be the next POTUS.  Summer 2015 his candidacy was a laughingstock.  Hell two weeks ago his candidacy was a laughingstock.

You don't have to like the man (I don't) to be willing to give him some sort of credit for this unbelievable win.

I don't have to give him credit if I don't think it's due to skill.  Uncertainty theory is both my profession and my hobby, so I am far more loathe to employ results-oriented thinking than most people.  People in general tend to grossly under-estimate the role of luck in life outcomes, both the positive side of variance kind of luck as well as being accidentally right without knowing why kind of luck.

[Barrister]

Okay, so I always figured myself as a smart and experienced political operator.  I was a Campaign Manager twice - once Federally, once provincially (we predictably got smoked each time as each time we ran against really strong incumbents).

One of the things I was taught, and always believed, was that a "ground game" was important.  Identify your vote, get them out to vote on election day.

That was one of the things Trump scoffed at - and one of the reasons I thought he would lose.  He had no ground game, no GOTV effort, nothing.  Just the power of earned media and his celebrity.

I guess maybe I was wrong about what I thought was important in politics.  And maybe Trump, as stupid as he is, was right.

You have this maddeningly annoying habit of making observations of equivalency when it comes to the US.   

Once again, for the cheap seats, and this time with feeling, you are from another fucking country.

Yes, yes - the fundamentals of getting people to go out and vote don't translate at all across the 49th parallel...

[HVC]

Okay, so I always figured myself as a smart and experienced political operator.  I was a Campaign Manager twice - once Federally, once provincially (we predictably got smoked each time as each time we ran against really strong incumbents).

One of the things I was taught, and always believed, was that a "ground game" was important.  Identify your vote, get them out to vote on election day.

That was one of the things Trump scoffed at - and one of the reasons I thought he would lose.  He had no ground game, no GOTV effort, nothing.  Just the power of earned media and his celebrity.

I guess maybe I was wrong about what I thought was important in politics.  And maybe Trump, as stupid as he is, was right.

You have this maddeningly annoying habit of making observations of equivalency when it comes to the US.   

Once again, for the cheap seats, and this time with feeling, you are from another fucking country.

Yes, yes - the fundamentals of getting people to go out and vote don't translate at all across the 49th parallel...

Well judging by the results, I guess not

[Barrister]

The man looks set to be the next POTUS.  Summer 2015 his candidacy was a laughingstock.  Hell two weeks ago his candidacy was a laughingstock.

You don't have to like the man (I don't) to be willing to give him some sort of credit for this unbelievable win.

I don't have to give him credit if I don't think it's due to skill.  Uncertainty theory is both my profession and my hobby, so I am far more loathe to employ results-oriented thinking than most people.  People in general tend to grossly under-estimate the role of luck in life outcomes, both the positive side of variance kind of luck as well as being accidentally right without knowing why kind of luck.

I know your experience and skills and I respect them.  But you're also such a hyper-partisan hack (which isn't meant as an attack)...

I dunno.  Maybe Trump was just lucky.  But he did hit on something.

[Zoupa]

What a giant fuck you to Obama. His legacy is in the toilet. Goodbye Obamacare, goodbye COP21, goodbye Cuban openings. Poor guy...

Is Michelle going to be pissed off enough to run in 2020?