2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Martinus]

Yikes

https://mobile.twitter.com/christinawilkie/status/789937548176924672

Jessica Drake says @realDonaldTrump called her to have dinner in 2006. She said no, and he said "how much?" Later offered her $10,000.
6:12 AM - 23 Oct 2016

That's cheap. I think Hillary charges $250,000 per table.

[Martinus]

Ah, didn't realise she is a porn star. Jeez, Donald, people do not pay her to have dinners with them. What were you thinking?

[Hamilcar]

Ah, didn't realise she is a porn star. Jeez, Donald, people do not pay her to have dinners with them. What were you thinking?

The real shocker here is that his celebrity wasn't high enough for her to just sleep with him anyway. Sad!

[Martinus]

If you guys want to have a chuckle check out #Trumpbookreport on Twitter.

[Phillip V]

I do not plan to be an official Poll Observer for the Democratic Party of Virginia, but I attended a 2-hour training session yesterday and took their 85-page "confidential" manual as well as gained access into their internal reporting web software.  There were 70 people (mostly old lawyers) in a full classroom on a Saturday morning.  This election organizing is serious!

[Zanza]

Sounds like a fun way to spand your Saturday. 

[jimmy olsen]

Why did you go if you don't plan to do it Phil?
You know Trump's brownshirts are going to be out in force trying to intimidate minorities, a strong young man like you should go.

Clinton up 12 in new ABC poll. Clinton 50, Trump 38, Johnson 5 and Stein 2
https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/790176101435924481/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[jimmy olsen]

538 update

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

[Monoriu]

538 update

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

Good.  The US Republican party needs major reforms, and an electoral defeat is the most likely catalyst. 

[DGuller]

538 update

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

Good.  The US Republican party needs major reforms, and an electoral defeat is the most likely catalyst.

The people voting for Republicans need major reforms.  GOP would act so deplorably if they didn't get support from their base for doing it.

[jimmy olsen]

http://electiongraphs.com/2016ec/?Dem=Clinton&Rep=Trump&ts=1477243584

Current Summary
Clinton   Trump   Margin
Trump Best   272   266   Clinton by 6 EV
Expected   334   204   Clinton by 130 EV
Clinton Best   410   128   Clinton by 282 EV

The tipping point state is Pennsylvania where Clinton is ahead by 5.1%

[Fate]

538 update

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

Good.  The US Republican party needs major reforms, and an electoral defeat is the most likely catalyst.

Will that be anywhere near enough, though? I don't think the GOP will reform. They seem quite content to be the obstructionist party.

Even Trump's Republican party will win a House majority given how heavily our districts are gerrymandered. The Democrats could win the presidency by 8 points but still lose the House because Democratic voters are concentrated (or wasted) in urban districts with lopsided voting results.

While Democrats are going to win the Senate this time around, the 2018 cycle is going to heavily favor Republicans. 3 Dem seats are very likely going Republican (WV, MT, OH) and another 7 Dem seats (FL, MO, ND, PA, WI, IN, VA) are vulnerable which will probably be enough to give the GOP control of the Senate yet again.

We're going to have 2 years of Hillary getting her 2 to 3 Supreme Court nominees through the Senate and little else. Which will be followed by 2 years of absolute gridlock, government shutdowns, debt ceiling fights, and last minute continuing resolution budgets by a hostile Congress.

[Valmy]

I have my doubts the Republicans have that kind of party solidarity and discipline anymore.

[PDH]

Oh the out of president party can always rally around the "block the president, and if need be the good of the country, vote."

[jimmy olsen]

538 update

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

Good.  The US Republican party needs major reforms, and an electoral defeat is the most likely catalyst.

Will that be anywhere near enough, though? I don't think the GOP will reform. They seem quite content to be the obstructionist party.

Even Trump's Republican party will win a House majority given how heavily our districts are gerrymandered. The Democrats could win the presidency by 8 points but still lose the House because Democratic voters are concentrated (or wasted) in urban districts with lopsided voting results.

While Democrats are going to win the Senate this time around, the 2018 cycle is going to heavily favor Republicans. 3 Dem seats are very likely going Republican (WV, MT, OH) and another 7 Dem seats (FL, MO, ND, PA, WI, IN, VA) are vulnerable which will probably be enough to give the GOP control of the Senate yet again.

We're going to have 2 years of Hillary getting her 2 to 3 Supreme Court nominees through the Senate and little else. Which will be followed by 2 years of absolute gridlock, government shutdowns, debt ceiling fights, and last minute continuing resolution budgets by a hostile Congress.

If she wins by double digits, the House will flip.

If the House doesn't flip, they will still lose many seats and the Freedom Caucus will make it ungovernable for Ryan. The GOP will not be able to elect a speaker.