2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Phillip V]

Post-debate, Trump has doubled down and is campaigning across South Carolina on his anti-GWBush, Iraq War lies, and pro-Planned Parenthood rhetoric.   


http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/02/15/donald-trump-escalates-rhetoric-before-south-carolina-primary/

Trump is trying really hard to alienate the Republican base, must be some kind of bet.

[celedhring]

Not sure Jeb's move to bring out the brother is going to help him much... I mean, the Republican runaway favorite is somebody that's campaigning on being an outsider, coming off a few years were the Republican base seems to be revolting against the party establishment. Not sure that double-downing on the "I'm a BUSH!" thing is going to be helpful. 

I might be wrong, of course. All in all, Bush needs *something* to turn his campaign around, and GW is about the only weapon he has.

[alfred russel]

Not sure Jeb's move to bring out the brother is going to help him much... I mean, the Republican runaway favorite is somebody that's campaigning on being an outsider, coming off a few years were the Republican base seems to be revolting against the party establishment. Not sure that double-downing on the "I'm a BUSH!" thing is going to be helpful. 

I might be wrong, of course. All in all, Bush needs *something* to turn his campaign around, and GW is about the only weapon he has.

The last poll has him tied for 5th in south carolina with Carson at 6%. Iowa and New Hampshire were a disaster for him. What he was doing wasn't working, so why not try something new, even if it won't work either? At least people will show up to rallies and pay attention with a former president there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OE_lHQZGuM

That probably won't happen. 

[Legbiter]

In the same way calling Mexicans rapists seems wrong ethically, those statements seem wrong politically.

Ironic since apparently Trump is the most popular Republican candidate among Latinos. By far. Seems terrorism clarified the border issue.

A new poll confirms it. In the national survey, which was conducted by Beck Research on behalf of the American Federation for Children, 38 percent of Latinos favor Trump.Ted Cruz got 15 percent. Jeb Bush pulled in 14 percent. And Marco Rubio, the guy who's supposed to be the one who could unite the party and win? Just 8 percent.

There is also anecdotal information, including conversations I've had in recent months with Latino friends who are leaning toward voting for Trump.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/12/no-joke-trump-can-win-plenty-of-latinos.html

[Admiral Yi]

And interestingly enough, with most Puerto Ricans and Dominican-Americans solidly in the Democratic camp, and Cuban-Americans splitting their allegiance between Rubio and Cruz, it is in the Mexican-American community in the Southwest where you are most likely to find Latinos lining up with Trump.

Thanks Hose. 

I thought Cubans were supposed to be the dumb ones.

[Jacob]

And interestingly enough, with most Puerto Ricans and Dominican-Americans solidly in the Democratic camp, and Cuban-Americans splitting their allegiance between Rubio and Cruz, it is in the Mexican-American community in the Southwest where you are most likely to find Latinos lining up with Trump.

Thanks Hose. 

I thought Cubans were supposed to be the dumb ones.

He does say, earlier, that he's only talking about Mexican-Americans who are already Republican. Though he buries it a bit, to make the article more attention-worthy.

[PJL]

I think with the Mexicans, it's the one step up the ladder syndrome. Generally people despise the the ones who are just one below them in the (class) ladder rung of achievement, because they're generally the ones which are at most threat from those just below. So it make sense for some Mexicans already in the US to to close the door on others as soon as they are inside.

[garbon]

I think with the Mexicans, it's the one step up the ladder syndrome. Generally people despise the the ones who are just one below them in the (class) ladder rung of achievement, because they're generally the ones which are at most threat from the ones just below. So it make sense for the Mexicans already in the US to to close the door for others as soon as they are inside.

I don't think that's primarily how it works though. Not for the first gens who still have family back in Mexico.

Also, it misses the bit as J noted, that this is only regarding Republican Latinos.

[Phillip V]

Kasich seems to be skipping South Carolina (and Super Tuesday?).  He is spending at least Monday and Tuesday of this week in Michigan, which does not vote until March 8. 

http://on.wsj.com/1OcWYhl

[Martinus]

In the same way calling Mexicans rapists seems wrong ethically, those statements seem wrong politically.

Ironic since apparently Trump is the most popular Republican candidate among Latinos. By far. Seems terrorism clarified the border issue.

A new poll confirms it. In the national survey, which was conducted by Beck Research on behalf of the American Federation for Children, 38 percent of Latinos favor Trump.Ted Cruz got 15 percent. Jeb Bush pulled in 14 percent. And Marco Rubio, the guy who's supposed to be the one who could unite the party and win? Just 8 percent.

There is also anecdotal information, including conversations I've had in recent months with Latino friends who are leaning toward voting for Trump.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/12/no-joke-trump-can-win-plenty-of-latinos.html

Yeah, it's kinda funny how people still make comments like Dorsey's after Trump says something... it's as if they have been living under a rock for the last 6 months or so.

[Martinus]

I think with the Mexicans, it's the one step up the ladder syndrome. Generally people despise the the ones who are just one below them in the (class) ladder rung of achievement, because they're generally the ones which are at most threat from those just below. So it make sense for some Mexicans already in the US to to close the door on others as soon as they are inside.

Yeah, it's also like the middle class people who come from poor backgrounds that end up being the most vocal opponents of socialism.

[Legbiter]

Big brother's helping Jeb! out in SC.



http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-35581875

[Phillip V]

Jeb! took off his glasses.  He is really shaking things up.

[celedhring]

Jeb! took off his glasses.  He is really shaking things up.

"Look, we look almost the same, and you voted for him!!!"

[alfred russel]

Yeah, it's kinda funny how people still make comments like Dorsey's after Trump says something... it's as if they have been living under a rock for the last 6 months or so.

So I am increasingly being abandoned in this point of view, but the past 6 months I've consistently felt that Trump is losing rather than winning. He gets the highest support in opinion polls while the field is fragmented and he is getting far more media attention than anyone else, but his negatives are through the roof. Plus he continues to say stupid things that will eventually undermine his support and maintain his negatives.

Time will tell.