2016 elections - because it's never too early

[DGuller]

Yeah, it's kinda funny how people still make comments like Dorsey's after Trump says something... it's as if they have been living under a rock for the last 6 months or so.

So I am increasingly being abandoned in this point of view, but the past 6 months I've consistently felt that Trump is losing rather than winning. He gets the highest support in opinion polls while the field is fragmented and he is getting far more media attention than anyone else, but his negatives are through the roof. Plus he continues to say stupid things that will eventually undermine his support and maintain his negatives.

Time will tell.

I predict that there is a good chance that you may be proven right in time.

[Legbiter]

Nobody likes him but the public. 

[Barrister]

Yeah, it's kinda funny how people still make comments like Dorsey's after Trump says something... it's as if they have been living under a rock for the last 6 months or so.

So I am increasingly being abandoned in this point of view, but the past 6 months I've consistently felt that Trump is losing rather than winning. He gets the highest support in opinion polls while the field is fragmented and he is getting far more media attention than anyone else, but his negatives are through the roof. Plus he continues to say stupid things that will eventually undermine his support and maintain his negatives.

Time will tell.

All of which is true (and will doom him in the general election) but I don't see the field consolidating until after trump has locked up the nomination.

[OttoVonBismarck]

So I am increasingly being abandoned in this point of view, but the past 6 months I've consistently felt that Trump is losing rather than winning. He gets the highest support in opinion polls while the field is fragmented and he is getting far more media attention than anyone else, but his negatives are through the roof. Plus he continues to say stupid things that will eventually undermine his support and maintain his negatives.

Time will tell.

I've always agreed with the core argument, but a lot of delegates get awarded through mid-March, and if we still have a 3-4 way race through then, 35% is enough to create a scenario where even if all your opponents coalesce into one you might still get enough delegates in the rest of the primaries (a lot are WTA, but not all, after Super Tuesday) to win out right, or at the very least to win a plurality--and the GOP will be in a hard spot if he wins a plurality.

I think the "weird" factor is unlike 2008, 2012, or any recent GOP contest there are factors that make it "logical" for candidates to stay in the primary later. If this was a "normal" and Trump was the Huckabee '08 or Santorum '12 type candidate and was 1v1 against someone the entire rest of the party supported, his high negatives and low ceiling of support would mean he'd be a thorn/annoyance in the front runner's side but they'd ultimately win an outright delegate majority and he'd ideally go away and not run third party. But the fractured field makes his plurality of support very powerful.

[Phillip V]

Yeah, it's kinda funny how people still make comments like Dorsey's after Trump says something... it's as if they have been living under a rock for the last 6 months or so.

So I am increasingly being abandoned in this point of view, but the past 6 months I've consistently felt that Trump is losing rather than winning. He gets the highest support in opinion polls while the field is fragmented and he is getting far more media attention than anyone else, but his negatives are through the roof. Plus he continues to say stupid things that will eventually undermine his support and maintain his negatives.

Time will tell.

Trump is outperforming McCain '08 and Romney '12.  I give the man some kudos.

[alfred russel]

I give the man some kudos.

I'll give him kudos if he gets more electoral college votes than George Wallace did in 1968.

[Valmy]

Well I just voted for Hillary. Now just have to wait around for the Caucus.

[Admiral Yi]

Well I just voted for Hillary. Now just have to wait around for the Caucus.

Does one vote count and the other doesn't?

[Valmy]

Well I just voted for Hillary. Now just have to wait around for the Caucus.

Does one vote count and the other doesn't?

Both votes count. I, like Edgar Allen Poe before me, am encouraged to vote twice.

Edit: Weird I just got my Caucus invite and it is on March 19th instead of the evening of Super Tuesday like it has been forever.

[MadImmortalMan]

Well I just voted for Hillary. Now just have to wait around for the Caucus.

Does one vote count and the other doesn't?

Both votes count. I, like Edgar Allen Poe before me, am encouraged to vote twice.

Edit: Weird I just got my Caucus invite and it is on March 19th instead of the evening of Super Tuesday like it has been forever.

Texas has a primary, not a caucus. And it's on March 1st. 

[Valmy]

Well I just voted for Hillary. Now just have to wait around for the Caucus.

Does one vote count and the other doesn't?

Both votes count. I, like Edgar Allen Poe before me, am encouraged to vote twice.

Edit: Weird I just got my Caucus invite and it is on March 19th instead of the evening of Super Tuesday like it has been forever.

Texas has a primary, not a caucus. And it's on March 1st. 

We have had both forever. I did not know this had changed. And if we do not have a Caucus what did I just get invited to

[Malthus]

We have had both forever. I did not know this had changed. And if we do not have a Caucus what did I just get invited to

I hope the person doing the inviting wasn't a 300 pound ex-con with the sense of humor of a 12-year-old ... 

[Legbiter]

Well I just voted for Hillary.

We're here for you man. 

[derspiess]

LOL Hillary barking.

[Valmy]

We're here for you man. 

Is it time for my physical already?

Anyway it looks like the old Caucus system was discontinued in 2015 so I guess the thing on the 19th is just the party county convention. Huh.