2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Eddie Teach]

I think, right now, there's a pretty good chance we'll be saying President Trump a year from now.

Trump 2016-2024. 

2017-2025

[Legbiter]

Ah right, I stand corrected.

[Barrister]

I too believe there's a lot of hot air in Trump's polling numbers, and that he will fade away once people have to actually vote for him instead of answering a pollster.

Not sure. Seems like he's likely to win the nomination. And if he does then he's going to get the Republican vote, especially since neither Hilary nor Sanders endear themselves to Republicans.

I think, right now, there's a pretty good chance we'll be saying President Trump a year from now.

What I do believe, though, is that if elected his rhetoric will stop.

I don't know about "likely".  It's clear now that Trump's support isn't just going to wither and vanish like Ben Carson's did.  BUt I still have my doubts he'll be the GOP nominee.

If he does win the nomination... who the fuck knows what'll happen.  Trump's negative poll numbers are astoundingly high (but then so are Hillary's).

But things are way too uncertain to say "there's a pretty good chance we'll be saying President Trump a year from now".

[katmai]

I too believe there's a lot of hot air in Trump's polling numbers, and that he will fade away once people have to actually vote for him instead of answering a pollster.

Not sure. Seems like he's likely to win the nomination. And if he does then he's going to get the Republican vote, especially since neither Hilary nor Sanders endear themselves to Republicans.

I think, right now, there's a pretty good chance we'll be saying President Trump a year from now.

What I do believe, though, is that if elected his rhetoric will stop.

thanks needed a good joke this morning.

[Legbiter]

Well, if Reagan came back to life and ran as an independent, that might stop Trump at this point.

[LaCroix]

at some point in legbiter's life, he entered an internet community and got swallowed whole by the memes 

@josephus, agree that he'll fall back on his history of moderate views if he gets nominated. while I don't see the GOP nominating him, it would be really interesting seeing his fans' reaction if he pulled a 180.

[Valmy]

at some point in legbiter's life, he entered an internet community and got swallowed whole by the memes 

It is all about the LOLZ for him.

[Malthus]

at some point in legbiter's life, he entered an internet community and got swallowed whole by the memes 

It is all about the LOLZ for him.

The term "whistling past the graveyard" springs to mind ... maybe "LOLing past the graveyard". 

[jimmy olsen]

at some point in legbiter's life, he entered an internet community and got swallowed whole by the memes 

It is all about the LOLZ for him.

Stop ignoring my Trump/Wage thread, I made it specifically for you!


The last six polls (all released since the 19th) have Trump at 33.2, Cruz at 27.5, Rubio at 12.0 and Carson at 7.2. No one else is even over 4%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html#polls

First Read: Donald Trump Is In Clear Command of the GOP Race

by Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann

First Read is a morning briefing from Meet the Press and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.

Six days until Iowa, Trump is in clear command of GOP race

These are words that most political observers, including us, didn't think we'd ever write six months ago: Less than a week before Iowa and two weeks before New Hampshire, Donald Trump is in clear control of the GOP presidential contest. If you don't want to take our word for it, just look at the polling out of Iowa, where Trump has topped Ted Cruz in five out of the last six polls, including today's new Quinnipiac survey. Look at the situation in New Hampshire, where he's leading the pack by double digits. And Trump is lapping the GOP field in national polls. Even numbers-cruncher Nate Silver, who had been skeptical about Trump's chances, now gives the real-estate mogul better than a 50% chance of winning Iowa. "Everything's coming up Trump," Silver tweeted. Now it's important to remember: Not a single vote has been cast yet, and a political cycle that has thrown us surprise after surprise could have another in store for us. But what Cruz told a group of Iowa pastors, according to a video obtained by CBN's David Brody, is probably the smart bet: "If Donald wins Iowa ... there is a very good chance he could be unstoppable and be our nominee."

[LaCroix]

I'd vote for cruz over sanders. sanders doesn't seem very smart, and he looks/acts like the old guy who plays chess in the park and feeds pigeons between moves. plus, #feelthebern OWS types

[The Minsky Moment]

I was just thinking.  Sanders is a self-proclaimed socialist, and commonly thought of as far too left wing to succeed. Yet in terms of policy, he is well to the right of Corbyn.

Labour is in a seriously bad place right now.

[Zanza]

Germany's social democrat leader is to the right of our supposedly conservative chancellor on many issues and yet his social democrat party does not make any gains in polls...

[Valmy]

Germany's social democrat leader is to the right of our supposedly conservative chancellor on many issues and yet his social democrat party does not make any gains in polls...

I think once a leader has been in power for an extended period of time the elections tend to be referendum's on that leader's leadership rather than ideology. They would need to tear Merkel down in order to make much headway.

[Jacob]

... and in other news, Trump has decided to boycott the upcoming debate in Iowa between GOP contenders, because he doesn't like Megan Kelly.

That's... well... it remains entertaining, that's for sure.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-idUSMTZSAPEC1RL7E6JS

[Valmy]

... and in other news, Trump has decided to boycott the upcoming debate in Iowa between GOP contenders, because he doesn't like Megan Kelly.

That's... well... it remains entertaining, that's for sure.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-idUSMTZSAPEC1RL7E6JS

He knows what is going to play well.

The football league murderer is a goddamn publicity genius I will give him that.