2016 elections - because it's never too early

[KRonn]

He's running away from a debate because he's scared a girl might pick on him. 
That doesn't seem that tough and virile to me.

Well yes, at first glance Trump appears petulant and whiney. Maybe narcissistic, fascist, and a little bit of Hitler too.

Yet he's succeeded in making it all about him again. Cruz just challenged him to a 1 on 1 debate. 

Trump has a skill set that absorbs mistakes and turns them into whatever he wants them to be.

I think he also feels other slights and unfairness from Fox lately, but IMO he needs to get over it as the media is going to be tough on all the candidates. I didn't agree with him getting so bent out of shape over Megan Kelly's questions in the first debate, as all candidates were asked tough questions. I think his tactic now, in part, is negotiating - if he doesn't like it he'll walk away, try to force the other side to compromise or give in some.

[Barrister]

The whole debate brouhaha means that Trump has an excuse for losing in Iowa (which he probably will).

[jimmy olsen]

Up 7 points in each of the last three polls, averaging 6.5% up in the last six polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

[DGuller]

The whole debate brouhaha means that Trump has an excuse for losing in Iowa (which he probably will).

He better not! 

[Valmy]

The whole debate brouhaha means that Trump has an excuse for losing in Iowa (which he probably will).

Why do you think he probably will lose in Iowa?

[Eddie Teach]

The whole debate brouhaha means that Trump has an excuse for losing in Iowa (which he probably will).

He better not! 

Maybe you should hedge with a bet on Cruz.

[Barrister]

The whole debate brouhaha means that Trump has an excuse for losing in Iowa (which he probably will).

Why do you think he probably will lose in Iowa?

Not as strong a ground game as Cruz. Most of his support comes from people who haven't caucused before.

Trump is almost certain to win in New Hampshire though.

[DGuller]

The whole debate brouhaha means that Trump has an excuse for losing in Iowa (which he probably will).

He better not! 

Maybe you should hedge with a bet on Cruz.

I'm not in the hedging business.  I tell it like it is, whether it is or it isn't.

[Martinus]

I don't want to be right, but moderate democrats are really going to hate Sanders supporters when he is beaten by Trump for Presidency...

[katmai]

[Eddie Teach]

Marty's not feeling the Bern.

[Razgovory]

I don't want to be right, but moderate democrats are really going to hate Sanders supporters when he is beaten by Trump for Presidency...

I find they annoying enough as it is.  Ank has gone full Bernie.  The only plus is that libertarians are scared shitless of him.

[Eddie Teach]

You've been talking to Ank?

[Syt]

You've been talking to Ank?

Ank is pretty vocal about his support for Sanders on Facebook.

[Martinus]

As I said I could be wrong - but it feels a lot like the last elections in Poland - the leftist and liberal voters get bored with the mainstream, corporatist, non-ideal candidate and shift their support to a more ideologically pure straight talker. The end result is that the right wing extremist candidate - who normally would have lost against the mainstream leftist candidate - wins.

Now, I know that right now Bernie is showed winning against Trump with a higher margin than Hillary - but that's the early enthusiasm and is also based on the fact that Bernie is the "anti-Trump". If, for whatever reason, some Trump's qualities (such as being a hawk) become suddenly more attractive to voters, he can take away the centre from Bernie in a way he wouldn't from Hillary (who is much less of an "anti-Trump").