2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Valmy]

Which one am I Shelferino?

I'd like to think we are vaguely mad.

[Sheilbh]

Which one am I Shelferino?

Vaguely mad

How about the debt, then?

Stabilised by 2015, falling by 2018. Again no need to panic.

Like immigration, or perhaps crime, it's a political issue out of all proportion to the actual statistics.

Which isn't to say the public sector shouldn't be in a state of permanent revolution, with constant reform to deliver more efficient and better services to the public. Forward, not back

As a simple example I had to visit lots of different government websites in an old job of mine - the US always had the worst, least informative, least user-friendly in the developed world. I'd be amazed if more couldn't be done there.

[frunk]

Secondly anyone still worrying about fixing the deficit is either a charlatan (Ted Cruz) or vaguely mad. It's not a problem and it certainly won't be one in 2016.

The deficit should still be a concern, just not in the moronic, must cut spending at all costs way that the extreme deficit hawks treat it.  The sequester cuts aren't the best way to cut spending but they are ok for now provided that the economy continues to improve.  With the sequester cuts, a revamp of top tax rates and getting rid of the idiotic debt limit hostage situations I would be fairly happy.

[Admiral Yi]

Stabilised by 2015, falling by 2018. Again no need to panic.

You're talking about the deficit, not the debt. 

And it's important to note that stabilizing the deficit as a % of GDP at a level higher than the growth rate means the debt as a % of GDP keeps growing.

[Sheilbh]

You're talking about the deficit, not the debt. 

No. I'm talking about the debt. It starts falling in the next few years. The fact that this isn't known is a sign of the cant that enshrouds the whole topic.

And it's important to note that stabilizing the deficit as a % of GDP at a level higher than the growth rate means the debt as a % of GDP keeps growing.

Yeah. The deficit is set to fall to around 2% by 2015. Nothing to worry about.

On the other hand if the economy is struggling along at 2% growth in 2015 that is something to worry about.

[Admiral Yi]

No. I'm talking about the debt. It starts falling in the next few years. The fact that this isn't known is a sign of the cant that enshrouds the whole topic.

I'm quite certain than when we had the debate about whether or not to count the Trust Fund as part of the debt your side of the argument was that it is only 73% of GDP now and will rise to 105% in the future.

[merithyn]

Two quibbles. Why should she be balanced? She's a politician, an advocate for certain solutions and choices not the BBC.

Because she claims that she is.

•Balanced approach to deficit reduction. (Sep 2012)

Secondly anyone still worrying about fixing the deficit is either a charlatan (Ted Cruz) or vaguely mad. It's not a problem and it certainly won't be one in 2016.

I'm not convinced of that. I don't like the idea that we're spending more than we're making. At some point, that is going to be a problem.

Edit: Incidentally apparently she supported some Medicare reform (on drug prices?), cutting subsidies and defence. I'll see if I can find more.

Key word: substantive

[Sheilbh]

It's 73% now and set to fall to 68% by 2018. On current policies, with an absurdly long projection, it would reach around 100% in 2038.

[merithyn]

The deficit should still be a concern, just not in the moronic, must cut spending at all costs way that the extreme deficit hawks treat it.  The sequester cuts aren't the best way to cut spending but they are ok for now provided that the economy continues to improve.  With the sequester cuts, a revamp of top tax rates and getting rid of the idiotic debt limit hostage situations I would be fairly happy.

Same.

[Sheilbh]

•Balanced approach to deficit reduction. (Sep 2012)

Okay, I thought you meant objective.

I don't know what level she wants of cuts to tax rises. But she wants cuts to subsidies, some form of Medicare reform is suggested and cuts to the defence budget - so she's open to some form of cuts in up to 40% of the budget, including the fastest growing and biggest budget problem for the US which is healthcare inflation. And she wants tax rises.

[Sheilbh]

The deficit should still be a concern, just not in the moronic, must cut spending at all costs way that the extreme deficit hawks treat it.

I see it as the same as crime and immigration. The facts are positive. That doesn't mean you stop trying to find ways to cut crime, illegal immigration or to make the budget more efficient but it's a different political way of looking at it than the panic that you currently have. It's bad decisions that are made based on media ether not the actual situation.

The deficit in 2016 will be about the level it was in 1996. Worry about it as much as you did in the Clinton era.

[Admiral Yi]

There's no way that last fact is true.  We've been running substantial deficits ever since Clinton left office.  At times the deficits have been monsters.

[Sheilbh]

Which last fact?

[Admiral Yi]

I misread.  Disregard.

[Admiral Yi]

Who's projections are you using Shelf?