Iran test fires missile capable of reaching US bases or Israel

[Berkut]

Bingo.

That's a pretty subtle argument, Berk.  I very seriously doubt that Minsk is arguing that we should go Dresden on all of Iran. 

Who said he was? I was agreeing with him that we should not necessarily treat Iran as a rational actor.

The real problem with what he said is that the same thing that makes it hard to trust Iran, also makes it hard to negotiate in good faith with Iran.

[DisturbedPervert]

Bottom line is muslims are nothing more than an angry powerless mob.
We shouldn't be afraid of them.
Like dogs, they can smell our fear.

And, like stray dogs, they should be given a lethal injection.

[Alatriste]

Some comments,

- We are here partially because Saddam Hussein didn't have nukes and ended up hanging from a rope, but North Korea built them and Kim lived happily ever after making life miserable for his neighbours. The moral of this story seems already quite evident, and should we attack another country because it's building nukes but keep respecting the 'No Trespassing' signs on the DMZ every petty tyrant and rogue regime is going to learn useful lessons about the value and danger of nukes... some of them very dangerous.

- It's true that the inner workings of the Iranian government are puzzling, but 30 years of experience with the 'Islamic Republic' show no evidence whatsoever of a taste for big foreign military adventures. Rethoric can be thunderous, and some money and material support seem to have been sent abroad, but comparations with Wilhelmine Germany or the French revolutionaries seem quite misplaced. Actually the regime seems remarkably inner looking, to the point of having ignored or tacitly approved US intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq.

- I would discount the fears of the Middle East burning in flames, Arab masses rebelling, etc, etc, but "colonial" entanglements have a nasty tendency to linger on, and on, and on... the present unpleasantness does already affect Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan (in fact the Taliban always had a leg on each side of the border) Adding Iran to the count seems quite rash... and will probably drive Russia and China to take some measures; they surely can't smile and cheer seeing hundreds of thousands of US troops deployed on their vicinity and on top of all those oil wells year after year.

- Air strikes alone won't do. It's one thing to destroy a nuclear reactor in construction, quite another thousands of centrifuges that probably are in dispersed locations. And the stock of uranium can't be destroyed... a sustained, massive air campaign targeting power stations and the like probably would delay the Iranians at the price of bringing the whole country back to the - literally - Dark Ages and alienating the population (that surely wouldn't apreciate being left without electricity indefinitely) but won't stop them if the strikes aren't repeated each time the stations get working again.

- It would be terribly hard to keep the war limited to air combats when Iraq and Iran have thousands of kilometers of borders... and I quite doubt the capacity of US and Iraqui forces to guard them. Of course I don't fear Iranian armoured columns running towards Baghdad and Basorah, but they could easily ignite a guerilla war all over the region.

- Even if we conclude that we can't accept a nuclear Iran, why is the blockade option not even considered, and the options reduced to 'war' and 'doing nothing'? Iran is very vulnerable to a blockade, and ironically very dependent from imported fuel (its refineries can cover only roughly 50% of the demand)

[jimmy olsen]

Who is Ender?

One of Meri's kids?

[jimmy olsen]

Some comments,

- We are here partially because Saddam Hussein didn't have nukes and ended up hanging from a rope, but North Korea built them and Kim lived happily ever after making life miserable for his neighbours. The moral of this story seems already quite evident, and should we attack another country because it's building nukes but keep respecting the 'No Trespassing' signs on the DMZ every petty tyrant and rogue regime is going to learn useful lessons about the value and danger of nukes... some of them very dangerous.

Can the North Koreans really deliver a working  nuclear weapon on target? I don't think so. The fact that they can destroy Seoul through conventional means is what stays our hands.

[Berkut]

You know, its not like we were all poised to invade North Korea and then they got a nuke and we were all like "Damn, bummer, we were totally going to invade them! I guess not now!"

North Koreas nuke(s) are not protecting them from invasion - the fact that they are rather nicely contained and made largely irrelevant did that.

[Valmy]

I would discount the fears of the Middle East burning in flames, Arab masses rebelling, etc, etc, but "colonial" entanglements have a nasty tendency to linger on, and on, and on... the present unpleasantness does already affect Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan (in fact the Taliban always had a leg on each side of the border) Adding Iran to the count seems quite rash... and will probably drive Russia and China to take some measures; they surely can't smile and cheer seeing hundreds of thousands of US troops deployed on their vicinity and on top of all those oil wells year after year.

Don't make me laugh hysterically.  The Arabs did nothing about us invading an Arab state but if we suddenly invade a Persian one that will push them over the edge?  Please.

That was supposed to happen when we invaded Iraq IIRC, the Arabs were all supposed to overthrow their governments and put Theocratic Terrorist states in their place.  What a joke.

Any more bogeymen we should be scared of?  Maybe Aliens might land?

[The Brain]

I would discount the fears of the Middle East burning in flames, Arab masses rebelling, etc, etc, but "colonial" entanglements have a nasty tendency to linger on, and on, and on... the present unpleasantness does already affect Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan (in fact the Taliban always had a leg on each side of the border) Adding Iran to the count seems quite rash... and will probably drive Russia and China to take some measures; they surely can't smile and cheer seeing hundreds of thousands of US troops deployed on their vicinity and on top of all those oil wells year after year.

Don't make me laugh hysterically.  The Arabs did nothing about us invading an Arab state but if we suddenly invade a Persian one that will push them over the edge?  Please.

That was supposed to happen when we invaded Iraq IIRC, the Arabs were all supposed to overthrow their governments and put Theocratic Terrorist states in their place.  What a joke.

Any more bogeymen we should be scared of?  Maybe Aliens might land?

I don't follow. Please explain.

[Valmy]

I don't follow. Please explain.

People always warn us to kiss up to the Arabs for fear they will finally get REALLY mad and do something REALLY bad and try to get us all terrified of some sort of mighty Arab coup that will...I don't know...restore the invincible Kalifate or something.

But it is always a bunch of hot air.  Sort of like being afraid the Chinese will give a shit or the Russians being relevent besides bluster.  If we stop Iran from getting Nuclear weapons I hardly think the Arabs, Russians and Chinese will be furious and take drastic actions demanding that as many of their neighbors are armed with Nuclear arms as possible.

But you probably were mocking me somehow. 

[The Brain]

I don't follow. Please explain.

People always warn us to kiss up to the Arabs for fear they will finally get REALLY mad and do something REALLY bad and try to get us all terrified of some sort of mighty Arab coup that will...I don't know...restore the invincible Kalifate or something.

But it is always a bunch of hot air.  Sort of like being afraid the Chinese will give a shit or the Russians being relevent besides bluster.  If we stop Iran from getting Nuclear weapons I hardly think the Arabs, Russians and Chinese will be furious and take drastic actions demanding that as many of their neighbors are armed with Nuclear arms as possible.

But you probably were mocking me somehow. 

I would never mock an American. In this instance I just read what Ala wrote a bit differently. My understanding is that he doesn't think that the Arab response will be dangerous.

[Valmy]

I would never mock an American. In this instance I just read what Ala wrote a bit differently. My understanding is that he doesn't think that the Arab response will be dangerous.

Oops I saw 'I would discount' and thought he said 'I wouldn't discount'

Nevermind.

[The Brain]

At least you're not fat.

[Faeelin]

I don't follow. Please explain.

People always warn us to kiss up to the Arabs for fear they will finally get REALLY mad and do something REALLY bad and try to get us all terrified of some sort of mighty Arab coup that will...I don't know...restore the invincible Kalifate or something.

I actually can't think of a substantive way in which the US has kissed up to the middle east in the past, oh, 8 years. But I'm sure somebody will be along to tell me.

[Valmy]

I actually can't think of a substantive way in which the US has kissed up to the middle east in the past, oh, 8 years. But I'm sure somebody will be along to tell me.

We haven't and we shouldn't to the Arabs who are the sort people think might revolt.

But we kiss up pretty well to the Arabs we should be kissing up to.

[DisturbedPervert]

At least you're not fat.

Hey.  You just said no mocking Americans.