AP: Technology destroying jobs faster than it's creating them.

[Iormlund]

What is probably getting destroyed is the guaranteed chance to get a job as an uneducated undermotivated bum.

Which is a real problem.  A rather large percentage of the world population are uneducated bums or various levels of motivation.  What exactly are we going to do with these people as technical skills become more and more necessary and stupid work gets more automated?  I mean there are teller-free banks, even the service industry is losing jobs now.

fair point and I am worried a bit about that sometimes but I also realize there had to be a lot of very similar discussions when the cotton mills and factories started rolling

There are a few key differences now. The pace is ever faster and jobs lost across all fields.

But also, and as I've mentioned before, many (most!) people are simply incapable of performing creative or complex tasks. Even in a perfect world where retraining is instantaneous, if technology makes obsolete enough low-skilled jobs many simply won't be able to work at all.

[Iormlund]

They will have to work as servants for the wealthy, as liveried retainers perhaps 

I'm certain there will be plenty of work. The process of adjustment though, as ever, will be very painful and concentrated on some unfortunate groups.

Ah, but why would the wealthy want to employ them instead of leasing a state of the art robo-maid than can cook, give them a nice massage, vaporize any threat in milliseconds and even perform open heart surgery if necessary?

[Valmy]

They will have to work as servants for the wealthy, as liveried retainers perhaps 

I'm certain there will be plenty of work. The process of adjustment though, as ever, will be very painful and concentrated on some unfortunate groups.

Why would the wealthy want a bunch of servants around?  They were an unbelievable pain and now they are largely unnecessary.

There may indeed be plenty of work but what exactly is not known at this time.  The process of adjustment may be very painful but what are we adjusting to?  It may be obvious to some future generations but it is not now.  Why do we need the mass of largely unskilled labor our societies have always required in the future?

[Richard Hakluyt]

The first comment was a joke, my fault, the internet is not a good place for that sort of comment.

Why do you assume that the " mass of largely unskilled labor" is unable to change its ways? I think they can and support state-led initiatives so that training and retraining is always a possibility.

One area which I think is bound to see a lot of growth in the next few decades (at least in the rich world) is personal care for the elderly and disabled. Because of automation we now have the resources freed up to look after these people properly, as ever the change is taking place in a wasteful and disjointed manner, but it is an improving trend.

I'm sure we can think of other areas of jobs growth, but I'm off out to dinner with my family, so will leave it at that 

[Sheilbh]

They will have to work as servants for the wealthy, as liveried retainers perhaps 

More like the elderly

I think divisions of labour and capital are re-emerging and there's a generational aspect

[Sheilbh]

One area which I think is bound to see a lot of growth in the next few decades (at least in the rich world) is personal care for the elderly and disabled. Because of automation we now have the resources freed up to look after these people properly, as ever the change is taking place in a wasteful and disjointed manner, but it is an improving trend.

Ah, yeah, I think you're right.

But I think there's a problem with distribution property and the political power of the elderly. Tunbridge Wells is our Versailles

[Valmy]

The first comment was a joke, my fault, the internet is not a good place for that sort of comment.

Oh for godsake I was being tongue-in-cheek as well.  Just pointing out even servants are not wanted anymore.  Just wait until the prostitutes lose their jobs to Holodecks.

Why do you assume that the " mass of largely unskilled labor" is unable to change its ways? I think they can and support state-led initiatives so that training and retraining is always a possibility.

Yes...but training for what?  And training for jobs a person of below average intelligence can do?  That is the question here.

One area which I think is bound to see a lot of growth in the next few decades (at least in the rich world) is personal care for the elderly and disabled. Because of automation we now have the resources freed up to look after these people properly, as ever the change is taking place in a wasteful and disjointed manner, but it is an improving trend.

That is just a short term trend.  I am talking about huge shifts in the way we think about labor and work in society.

I'm sure we can think of other areas of jobs growth, but I'm off out to dinner with my family, so will leave it at that 

I am certain there will be some need for human workers the issue is the volume of need versus the population in general.

[Ideologue]

It's frustratingly gratifying that people are finally starting to come around to the viewpoint I held TEN FUCKING YEARS AGO.

[Sheilbh]

That is just a short term trend.  I am talking about huge shifts in the way we think about labor and work in society.

I think our ageing society is a huge shift in the way we think about labour. And it's a very long-term trend from what I can see, unless everyone starts dying younger. Also I doubt we'll be able to sufficiently ameliorate the effects of ageing, so we'll need more and more care (as Labour's Shadow Health Secretary argued, dealing with long-term care's as consequential now as the NHS was in 1948).

[Josephus]

I can't wait till we invent robot-lawyers

[DGuller]

I don't see robots replacing the oldest profession. 

[Sheilbh]

I can't wait till we invent robot-lawyers

Don't joke till Ide, Mihali and I are safely ensconced

[DGuller]

I don't necessarily get the concern about robots become too good at absolutely everything.  If that really happens, why exactly would we be concerned about lack of jobs?  It seems like a good thing if robots could magically give us everything we need with no labor.  Society would probably have to be way more redistributionist to make sure that everyone could enjoy the robot windfall, but on the whole the only concern seems to be lack of sense of purpose on the part of humans.

[Razgovory]

Sitting around doing nothing all day is not as much fun as you'd think.

[frunk]

I don't see robots replacing the oldest profession. 

Farming?