AP: Technology destroying jobs faster than it's creating them.

[Caliga]

A few sectors could see high demand, sure. For example care for the elderly. But that assumes the latter could afford such services in a world with collapsing pension schemes.

To expand on the comment I made in my last post: most companies that serve this market are trying desperately to corner the well-off elderly demographic right now.  For example, my previous company was heavily dependent on providing services funded by Medicare and Medicaid--especially the latter--and in the 2008-2009 timeframe when states started slashing those budgets, the company almost went bankrupt and ended up having to sell out to a PE firm in order to stay afloat.  All of the targeted growth since has been toward the much more lucrative private pay market, and they've since done well and have mostly recovered.

Oh, and they also recently closed down nearly all of their international operations.  The cost of doing business in The Netherlands and France: unacceptable.

[Sheilbh]

I don't know how plausible that is anymore though Cal. It's now very normal for people to have to do unpaid internships of at least a few months to get into many industries (some, especially in the City, are far more meritocratic). If you've not got a supportive wealthy family, or a supportive normal, London-based family then that makes it difficult for lots of people.

In the UK the other problem is that we don't build enough houses (not helped by the fact that people who own houses tend to be older so they vote, they tend to benefit from the increase of prices due to shortages and homeowners are far more likely to object to new building developments). I think to keep up with household growth over the last decade we needed to build a million houses more than we did. Currently we're building about half the amount needed to keep up with the population.

Either we need to build far, far more houses or we need to do something so the economy's more spread in the country and there's increased demand in areas like the North which have the stock. The government suggested liberalising planning laws a couple of times - but it's very controversial especially with Tory voters.

[Neil]

I'm proud to say that I have never gone back to them for one further cent... and to Shielbh's point earlier I didn't need any help buying a house, and my brother, who is about to buy his first house, won't need any either.  As best as I can tell that's fairly typical here, but then again our cost of living and home ownership is drastically lower than yours.  Anyway, I also know of other folks who had well-off parents and were also expected to fend for themselves so I don't believe I'm a unique snowflake here... and I'm endlessly grateful to my parents for that policy of theirs and have repeatedly thanked them for it in recent years.

Yeah, but you live in the US.  You can get a McMansion for a bus token and a Snickers Bar.

[Josephus]

I can't wait till we invent robot-lawyers

Internet based research tools have already effectively cut out the need for most junior lawyers and articled students.

Back in the day when we had to do things like noting up cases using paper copies of reporter services noting up one leading case could take days of labour.  Now it is accomplished with the push of a button cutting out the need for firms to hire armies of young lawyers.

It's a start.

[Neil]

Thinking about elderly care being a big growth sector- I can't help but find this slightly disturbing. Really seems to be a sign of a society which is teetering on the brink, that we would be only surviving by leeching off the last remnants of our more succesful days.

But isn't that true?

[Valmy]

I'm not sure how you would define 'rich' exactly but I would guess my parents would count by your definition... my parents made it clear to me that once I was done with college I needed to be entirely self-supporting.  I'm proud to say that I have never gone back to them for one further cent... and to Shielbh's point earlier I didn't need any help buying a house, and my brother, who is about to buy his first house, won't need any either.  As best as I can tell that's fairly typical here, but then again our cost of living and home ownership is drastically lower than yours.  Anyway, I also know of other folks who had well-off parents and were also expected to fend for themselves so I don't believe I'm a unique snowflake here... and I'm endlessly grateful to my parents for that policy of theirs and have repeatedly thanked them for it in recent years.

Yeah but what Tyr is talking about is the same as extended college.  The rich parents are backing their kids while they intern to get the jobs they need.  If that was how it worked here I bet your parents would have done that.

As far as the housing thing Britain has this completely insane realestate situation and is not really comparable.

[Ideologue]

I can't wait till we invent robot-lawyers

Don't joke till Ide, Mihali and I are safely ensconced

Faelinn and ulmont too!

I appreciate the thought, but I'm done for already.  Doc review will be nearly completely automated faster than I reckon most expect--after all, I am more pessimistic and hence realistic about technological unemployment.  I expect clients will insist on automation due to cost, even if it makes mistakes--though really, while machine mistakes might be more egregious, after having QCd documents for almost a year, I doubt completely that they would be nearly as numerous.  Further, I'm closer to the apex of this particular crummy hill than some, in that I have displayed basic competence, which is to say high school level literacy and the ability to perceive color, I'm not up for project manager or similar, principally because such positions are rare and also because I haven't routinely worked the 70 hour week you need to qualify for them (I am hoping for a more permatemp existence however).  So when time's up on doc review, I'll hopefully have some employment outside of the legal field, or my time striving for the lower middle class will be up too.

That is , given sufficient time, the economy - including the labor market - should be able to adjust to labor saving technological change

But will it adjust this time?  It cannot, in any conventional means.  I see no road ahead that puts those made redundant by technological progress back to work in a meaningful sense.  The service sector existed, and existed in much its modern form, well prior to deinudstrialization--it was an obvious outlet.  But where is the fourth sector to which we should look?

(This doesn't mean I'm a luddite, btw.  Technological unemployment is potentially the greatest thing to ever occur to the human race since we figured out the germ theory of disease.  But the obvious, inevitable, and fundamental changes to society will, I fear, be fought against at every turn, so that 30, 40, 50% or even greater true unemployment rates will be the rule for a generation or more.)

[Josquius]

The only definite way  out I can see is massive population decline and genetic engineering to make sure everyone is a genius who can do something useful with all their free time.

[Scipio]

Man, fuck nihilism.

[Ideologue]

Man, fuck nihilism.

OK Walter?

[Neil]

Nihilism is the way of the future.  There's no way forward for civilization.

[Razgovory]

Nihilism is the way of the future.  There's no way forward for civilization.

You sure are emo for an omnipotent deity.

[Neil]

Nihilism is the way of the future.  There's no way forward for civilization.

You sure are emo for an omnipotent deity.

I've seen the future, and mankind isn't in it.  I'm a much better judge of what's going to happen then you are, and that makes me better at judging what is and isn't a good thing to believe.

[Eddie Teach]

Nihilism is the way of the future.  There's no way forward for civilization.

You sure are emo for an omnipotent deity.

Mythology is filled with emo, vain, insecure deities.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

not getting paid to internships seems to be a matter for the law: change the law so that renumeration for work done is required.