AP: Technology destroying jobs faster than it's creating them.

[Razgovory]

I don't see robots replacing the oldest profession. 

Farming?

Actuary-ing.

[Tonitrus]

60 Minutes had a good piece on this subject a couple weeks ago...they were showing a warehouse operation, very similar to how an Amazon.com type place must operate...with pretty much all of the item-selection, and movement across the warehouse floor, done by robots.

Edit: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50138922n

[Admiral Yi]

Society would probably have to be way more redistributionist to make sure that everyone could enjoy the robot windfall

Agreed.  If the value of labor drops to zero then we would have to toss the entire notion of property rights out the window.

[Richard Hakluyt]

They will have to work as servants for the wealthy, as liveried retainers perhaps 

More like the elderly

I think divisions of labour and capital are re-emerging and there's a generational aspect

I would agree with that and believe that is about time that we started taxing property properly.

As regards the generational thing, people in my generation need to realise that things have changed and that at least some of their ill-gotten gains should be spent on helping their children establish themselves. Most people I know are doing that..........though that doesn't help young people from families with few financial or social resources.

[Sheilbh]

As regards the generational thing, people in my generation need to realise that things have changed and that at least some of their ill-gotten gains should be spent on helping their children establish themselves. Most people I know are doing that..........though that doesn't help young people from families with few financial or social resources.

Yeah. The only people I know (in their late twenties) getting a house have done so with a huge amount of help (way, way more than the deposit) from their parents and they're quite successful types too. It helps that they're all only children too

Being from a Catholic family, I'll be renting for some time

Personally I think if you object to a planning application your back garden should be subject to compulsory purchase by local housing associations, solely for immigrant single parents.

[Richard Hakluyt]

@valmy - I think you are talking about the long term, whereas I'm talking about the medium-term and some are getting a little bit too excited about the short-term. I'm with Keynes on the long term. I have no idea what will happen if robots get to be so good that they can replace humans in the myriad of niggling little oddjobs that need to be done. In general I disapprove of work so personally i would hope for a utopian situation where, freed of the constraints of paid employment, people would do what interested them instead.

[crazy canuck]

I can't wait till we invent robot-lawyers

Internet based research tools have already effectively cut out the need for most junior lawyers and articled students.

Back in the day when we had to do things like noting up cases using paper copies of reporter services noting up one leading case could take days of labour.  Now it is accomplished with the push of a button cutting out the need for firms to hire armies of young lawyers.

[frunk]

Actuary-ing.

Les Nessman would disagree.

[Neil]

It's frustratingly gratifying that people are finally starting to come around to the viewpoint I held TEN FUCKING YEARS AGO.

Yeah, but these people are seriously thinking about the shift and its ramifications.  You were just using it as an excuse not to try hard at anything.

[Neil]

As regards the generational thing, people in my generation need to realise that things have changed and that at least some of their ill-gotten gains should be spent on helping their children establish themselves. Most people I know are doing that..........though that doesn't help young people from families with few financial or social resources.

Yeah. The only people I know (in their late twenties) getting a house have done so with a huge amount of help (way, way more than the deposit) from their parents and they're quite successful types too. It helps that they're all only children too

Being from a Catholic family, I'll be renting for some time

Personally I think if you object to a planning application your back garden should be subject to compulsory purchase by local housing associations, solely for immigrant single parents.

Yeah, but home ownership has been such a short-term blip in your country's history that it can probably slip away without too much of a cultural quake.

[The Minsky Moment]

The only one that makes a good point in the article (IMO) is Peter Lindert (no surprise there).  That is , given sufficient time, the economy - including the labor market - should be able to adjust to labor saving technological change, but if the pace of change is too fast the adjustment mechanism can't catch up in time to avoid signicant lasting unemployment.

That could be happening here but it is too early to tell.

[DontSayBanana]

I read that and kept waiting for the social analysis to pop in, but it never did.  To at least some extent, "recovery" after a technological revolution involves societal change- as the author pointed out, these jobs aren't coming back, so the trick here isn't to sit and wait for something that's never going to happen; it's to find another niche for these workers to occupy.

The service sector itself is a product of societal change- increased prosperity led to a skyrocketing demand for things such as prepared meals that were previously a luxury for the elite.

[Josquius]

As regards the generational thing, people in my generation need to realise that things have changed and that at least some of their ill-gotten gains should be spent on helping their children establish themselves. Most people I know are doing that..........though that doesn't help young people from families with few financial or social resources.

No they shouldn't. Rich parents already do that way too much, gives their kids a huge advantage and totally screws over poor kids. We need rich parents to be more selfish. Force their kids to learn to look after themselves.
For instance I would have loved to have done an internship during and just after university....but couldn't afford to do it. How mad is that; not being able to afford to work. All because rich kids are willing to do it for free, money means nothing to them, so nobody pays interns.



Thinking about elderly care being a big growth sector- I can't help but find this slightly disturbing. Really seems to be a sign of a society which is teetering on the brink, that we would be only surviving by leeching off the last remnants of our more succesful days.



A crazy idea I've been read about before and am thinking of  here (which most of you will probally hate)- perhaps we do need to drastically shorten the working week. Make it so that 5 jobs must become 7 so as to redistribute the limited supply of jobs more fairly.
Outright forbidding someone to work more than 30 hours seems a bit draconian and weird of course....perhaps a system whereby over a certain amount of hours worked the amount you are taxed increases? Basically we can't force people to work shortened hours but we can heavily encourage it.
Yes, yes. I remember last time we discussed this. "I'm the only person at my company who can do X" and all that. Look at the bigger picture though, don't just consider high level professional jobs. For the lower level stuff workers do become far more interchangeable.

[Iormlund]

... so the trick here isn't to sit and wait for something that's never going to happen; it's to find another niche for these workers to occupy...

But that's the thing. Does such niche exist? Personally I don't think so.

A few sectors could see high demand, sure. For example care for the elderly. But that assumes the latter could afford such services in a world with collapsing pension schemes.

[Caliga]

No they shouldn't. Rich parents already too that way too much, gives their kids a huge advantage and totally screws over poor kids. We need rich parents to be more selfish. Force their kids to learn to look after themselves.
For instance I would have loved to have done an internship during and just after university....but couldn't afford to do it. How mad is that; not being able to afford to work. All because rich kids are willing to do it for free, money means nothing to them, so nobody pays interns.

I'm not sure how you would define 'rich' exactly but I would guess my parents would count by your definition... my parents made it clear to me that once I was done with college I needed to be entirely self-supporting.  I'm proud to say that I have never gone back to them for one further cent... and to Shielbh's point earlier I didn't need any help buying a house, and my brother, who is about to buy his first house, won't need any either.  As best as I can tell that's fairly typical here, but then again our cost of living and home ownership is drastically lower than yours.  Anyway, I also know of other folks who had well-off parents and were also expected to fend for themselves so I don't believe I'm a unique snowflake here... and I'm endlessly grateful to my parents for that policy of theirs and have repeatedly thanked them for it in recent years.

Thinking about elderly care being a big growth sector- I can't help but find this slightly disturbing. Really seems to be a sign of a society which is teetering on the brink, that we would be only surviving by leeching off the last remnants of our more succesful days.

Both my current company and my former one depend critically on this sector so watch what you say please.