Fiscal Cliff MEGATHREAD: Wile E. Economy falls off, lands in cloud at bottom

Started by CountDeMoney, November 13, 2012, 10:03:34 PM

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The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 21, 2012, 03:00:44 PM
And all those guys voting against just won re-election, presumably while campaigning on not raising taxes.

Such is the miracle of gerrymandering.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

derspiess

Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 21, 2012, 03:10:51 PM
Quote from: merithyn on December 21, 2012, 03:09:27 PM
We have far more elderly and disabled now than we did then.

We do?  :huh:

We have a lot of people on disability now-- IIRC more now than ever as a % of our population.  One theory is that many shifted over to drawing Social Security checks once their extended unemployment compensation ran out.  You can claim disability from a lot more conditions than you used to.  Hell, I could probably do it with my Crohn's.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

derspiess

Quote from: sbr on December 21, 2012, 03:12:54 PM
Quote from: derspiess on December 21, 2012, 03:06:17 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 21, 2012, 03:02:00 PM
No.  He's stated since 2008 that returning to the Clinton-era rates would be just fine and dandy for the nation, just like they were back then when everybody prospered and plenty of millionaires were to be made. 
I don't think he has ever said more than that, and I see no reason to think he'd go beyond that.

Is he going to create another tech bubble to help re-create the Clinton years as well?  Anyway I'd be fine going back to Clinton-era tax rates if we went back to Clinton-era spending.

But that wouldn't get us anywhere because we weren't running a surplus back then, right?

You asking me?  :unsure:
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

CountDeMoney

Quote from: derspiess on December 21, 2012, 03:06:17 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on December 21, 2012, 03:02:00 PM
No.  He's stated since 2008 that returning to the Clinton-era rates would be just fine and dandy for the nation, just like they were back then when everybody prospered and plenty of millionaires were to be made. 
I don't think he has ever said more than that, and I see no reason to think he'd go beyond that.

Is he going to create another tech bubble to help re-create the Clinton years as well? 

What do tech bubbles have to do with more equitable tax rates?  Oh, I get it:  you want no revenue raised but all spending cut.  Nyuk, nyuk.

CountDeMoney


Faeelin

Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 21, 2012, 03:00:44 PM

And all those guys voting against just won re-election, presumably while campaigning on not raising taxes.

That's a good point. And now we can see how those guys feel about voting against tax cuts for the middle class, which is what they'll have to do to stop Obama from controlling what happens from here on out.

Iormlund

Quote from: derspiess on December 21, 2012, 03:18:17 PMHell, I could probably do it with my Crohn's.

I looked into it when my doc suggested it. After reading the guidelines it seems I would need to be quite fucked up to reach the score needed to get any kind of benefit. I'll file if I get laid off regardless (you have better chances of gaining public employment and any future employer gets reduced payroll taxes).

merithyn

Quote from: Iormlund on December 21, 2012, 07:22:45 PM
Quote from: derspiess on December 21, 2012, 03:18:17 PMHell, I could probably do it with my Crohn's.

I looked into it when my doc suggested it. After reading the guidelines it seems I would need to be quite fucked up to reach the score needed to get any kind of benefit.

About ten years ago, after a series of surgeries and various other issues (including cancer), I looked into it. At the time, I was on a liquid diet indefinitely (my intestines were messed up due to the cancer and other "female things"), I walked with a cane, couldn't stand for more than 10-15 minutes without getting dizzy, and was weaker than a kitty due to the issue with my heart (that caused the dizzy spells). The lawyer I consulted said that I wasn't likely to get it because I could still do a sit-down job.

I highly doubt that Crohn's would qualify anyone in and of itself, so don't quit your job just yet. :P  Besides, the pay for disability is pretty awful. You're talking around $500-1000 a month plus a stipend for kids. So not worth it.
Yesterday, upon the stair,
I met a man who wasn't there
He wasn't there again today
I wish, I wish he'd go away...

merithyn

Quote from: Admiral Yi on December 21, 2012, 03:10:51 PM
Quote from: merithyn on December 21, 2012, 03:09:27 PM
We have far more elderly and disabled now than we did then.

We do?  :huh:

We do.

LINK

QuotePeople on Disability Payments Hits Record 8.7 Million
Monday, 02 Jul 2012 08:55 PM
By Todd Beamon

More than 8.7 million people took federal disability payments in June — more than the population of New York City, the Social Security Administration reports.

In June, 8,733,461 workers received payments, up from 8,707,185 in May, with an average payment of $1,111.42, cnsnews.com reports.

Both figures exceed the population of New York City —  8,244,910 — according to Census figures.

According to CNSNews.com, the 2012 figures continue to illustrate the dramatic shrinkage in the number of American citizens actually employed and earning paychecks over the past 20 years.

In June 1992, for instance, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 118,419,000 people were working in the United States, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – but only 3,334,333 workers were claiming federal disability payments.

That amounted to one person on disability for every 35.5 people actually working.


But when President Barack Obama was inaugurated in January 2009, those employed totaled 142,187,000, while 7,442,377 people were taking federal disability payments – or about 1 person on disability per 19.1 people actually working.

As for the May 2012 figures, 8,707,185 were claiming disability payments compared with 142,287,000 people actually working – or 1 worker on disability for every 16.3 people working.

In addition, 165,469 spouses of disabled workers were taking payments in June, along with 1,899,756 children of disabled workers. That brought the total number of June beneficiaries to 10,798,686.
Yesterday, upon the stair,
I met a man who wasn't there
He wasn't there again today
I wish, I wish he'd go away...

Ed Anger

Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

CountDeMoney

People like to bitch about how all the culuh'd folks is sucking up all dat SSI, but they forget how lawyers play their part in the process.








There would be less people on disability if there were less lawyers.

Razgovory

I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Ed Anger

Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

Ed Anger

Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

Razgovory

I get 465 bucks a month.  I never had to hire a lawyer.  I did stipulate that it would all come out of Berkut's taxes though.  They seemed fine with that.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017